Hollinger forecast: Raptors 22-60 (could be worst)

[Ripp]

The problem I've had with Pyth diff is that it is sort of an estimation procedure from mapping from Ortg, Drtg to winning percentage. How do we know that discrepancies between Pyth wins and actual wins do not just mean that this was a datapoint that Pyth wins fails to guess properly?

Implicitly, we are sort of assuming that Pyth wins (or whatever other technique you use) is more robust, more accurate than looking at raw wins. Which seems like a fairly big assumption, an assumption that probably needs to be tested somehow.

Anyway, sorry for the digression, but I was just curious.

[Schad]

Using the old "what Vegas O/U line would leave me utterly indecisive" method, I'd say ~24 wins is where I'd sit on my hands. Beyond that, I can see anywhere from 19 to 29 wins as a defensible prediction...not that the team can't possibly end up above/below that range, just that it would take a slew of injuries and/or a locker-room result to end up below, or spectacular improvement from a number of players to end up above.

[Lionel Messi]

Using the old "what Vegas O/U line would leave me utterly indecisive" method, I'd say ~24 wins is where I'd sit on my hands. Beyond that, I can see anywhere from 19 to 29 wins as a defensible prediction...not that the team can't possibly end up above/below that range, just that it would take a slew of injuries and/or a locker-room result to end up below, or spectacular improvement from a number of players to end up above.

The only O/U I've heard of (not a gambler, but I think it was vegas) had us at 28.5, so I guess you would put your money on the under.

[Ripp]

The Vegas lines have not been released yet except for the Heat and Lakers, I think? I checked sportbook.com and don't see the Raps listed. Anyone know of a site which has an estimate for the Raps?

[dagger]

One small point that's been touched on but largely overlooked:

Hollinger mentioned that, in addition to our woes last year, losses this offseason, etc. we were, last year, luckier and healthier than would be usual. And therefore luckier and healthier than should be counted on when projecting forward.

Except that we got younger and younger teams often have better health records than older teams. And we lost our best player and have no particular dependence on any one guy. If you are going to base predictions on the assumption that a team's injury luck will turn, you'd definitely short the Thunder because they had unbelievable health last year and cannot afford a major injury to Durant or even Westbrook

Yes, but we were already young, and it's not that predictive until you get to the extremes. Besides, some of the younger guys we've added come with health concerns.

As far as depending on one person, don't see your point. Yes, losing that key guy will cost you more, but having him in there will gain you more than vs. a homogenized lineup with distributed injury projections. It's not like Bosh missed 40 games or something...he missed 12, and averaged 36 mpg in the games he played, most on the team.

As for your point about the Thunder, same applies. Yes, an injured Durant kills them, but a non-injured Durant helps them more than a few averagely injured average talents.

We added injury prone players.

Kleiza in his last three NBA seasons: 79, 79, 82

Bargnani played almost every game.

Amir Johnson played every game

Weems dressed for every game

Jack played in 82

Jose misses games - and did last year

Evans missed half of last season

But the latter two were around last year.

DeRozan played in 77

So where is this big influx of cripples?



Barbosa was the one with the wrist injury and the mother who passed away. Injury prone?

I can't measure Wright because he had DNP-CDs, but Belinelli had his share of last games last year.

I guess you're thinking of David Anderson.

[FirstInkTDot]

25-27 is my prediction either way we're getting a high pick this year and we'll use it one Kyrie Irving

I don;t know why people keep jerking off over a guard ranked 9th by DraftExpress. And Duke point guards often make poor pros.

Sorry, if we get a high pick, we have to go BPA. PERIOD!

How dare you disgrace Kyrie Irving he's what the Raptors need, that or Rubio but I have a better chance of getting struck by lighting if that happend.

[Harry Palmer]

Barbosa was the one with the wrist injury and the mother who passed away. Injury prone?

I can't measure Wright because he had DNP-CDs, but Belinelli had his share of last games last year.

I guess you're thinking of David Anderson.

...and Ed Davis.

[dagger]

Barbosa was the one with the wrist injury and the mother who passed away. Injury prone?

I can't measure Wright because he had DNP-CDs, but Belinelli had his share of last games last year.

I guess you're thinking of David Anderson.

...and Ed Davis.

Davis is a rookie and we're not sure if he even plays, and while he's out, we have many options at his position. It might deprive us of some over-achievement were he to play at a rookie all-star level, but it's highly unlikely that any absence by him hurts us in the downside.

[Basketball_Jones]

It might be too early to tell if Davis is really injury prone, but I have the sickening feeling he is. He was out for a good chunk of games in college, has a knee injury now (knee injuries are rough either way), it's just not looking good.

[Harry Palmer]

Barbosa was the one with the wrist injury and the mother who passed away. Injury prone?

I can't measure Wright because he had DNP-CDs, but Belinelli had his share of last games last year.

I guess you're thinking of David Anderson.

...and Ed Davis.

Davis is a rookie and we're not sure if he even plays, and while he's out, we have many options at his position. It might deprive us of some over-achievement were he to play at a rookie all-star level, but it's highly unlikely that any absence by him hurts us in the downside.

And yet he is, by almost any objective standard, the most significant talent we have brought into the team this year. And potentially injury prone. Seems relevant to me.

I say that JH points out we were healthier than the norm last year. You respond by saying we got younger, hence we should be healthier. I point out that among the young talent we've brought in, there are those for whom health is already an issue both to show how it doesn't work in as linear a fashion as you suggest, and to indicate we already have signs that health might be a concern this year, and it's with the best young talent we brought in.

Good?

[dagger]

I didn't say we would get healthier. I said there was no reason to believe that the odds would catch up to us and we would be less healthy.

And while Davis could we be the big ticket of the long haul, I don't see it as an issue for this season beyond what he has sustained. A torn meniscus is a common injury that should not be career altering or indicative of how our season will unfold.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Hollinger is wrong on his claim that we don't have enough bulk at the PF position. There's a handful of guys that make their paycheque with muscle down low at that position (Boozer, ZBo, Amare, Jefferson, Landry, and DaMarcus Cousins + Blake Griffin will join them). It won't be an issue. If anything their added mobility and defensive tenacity will be a better bridge to fighting off the bigger guys but also keeping up with the stretch 4s and finesse bigs that most teams go with.

I don't know what ball you're watching, but with the guys we have, we're going to get trucked by the PF position (minding that DeMarcus Cousins is probably going to be the 5 in Sacramento, not the 4).

It's not even just about scoring, it's about rebounding, too. We're likely to give up strong rebounding nights to Al Horford (who will be a 4 this year), Garnett, Boozer, Kenyon Martin (if he's healthy), David Lee, Chuck Hayes, Elton Brand, Gasol, Bosh himself, Derrick Favours, Amare, Tiago Splitter/DaJuan Blair and Al Jefferson, to say nothing of the centers of the league.

And even the guys who aren't low-post bruisers are going to have a lot of fun scoring against our paper-thin defense. Bargs is going to have a lot of trouble with the perimeter-oriented, finesse PFs too, not just low-block scorers.

Like I said, I think rebounding at the 4 is going to be a major concern because Bargs is so bad at it and it's a common skill at teh position. Unless he makes a major stride, we're going to get killed on the glass again, especially if Kleiza and/or Davis aren't really making it up for us elsewhere on the floor.

EDIT: This remains true if Bargs stays at the 5, only it gets worse.

I don't know what you're responding too. Hollinger's comment was directed toward Amir and Ed Davis not having the bulk to contend with the PF's in the league. If you want to use straight rebounding as evidence. Amir posted a higher rebound rate than everyone on that list except for Bosh, Boozer, Blair, Lee, Horford. So, basically the best rebounders in the league. I guess we'll have to wait and see how Favors and Splitter take to the NBA, and we'll have to wait and see how Ed Davis takes to the NBA, too. Rebounding overall will be a problem, but Hollinger was talking about interior defense, and how we don't have enough bulk at that position. As I stated above, the position has changed.

If they want to play Reggie at the 5, or Joey Dorsey than we can make up for some of the rebounding we'll give up with Bargnani. Right now the only guys getting minutes that are worse than average rebounders for their position are Andrea, Jose, Barbosa. It's conceivable that with some personal improvements in that area we could be a mediocre rebounding team instead of a pitiful one.

[tsherkin]

If you want to use straight rebounding as evidence. Amir posted a higher rebound rate than everyone on that list except for Bosh, Boozer, Blair, Lee, Horford.

True, but that doesn't speak to whether he can stop them from grabbing boards while he's on the floor, which was my point, or to the notion that fouls will limit the amount of time he can stay on the court, which is also relevant.

We will be a below-average rebounding team as long as Bargs is starting in the frontcourt.

[D-Wins-RingsIMO]

One small point that's been touched on but largely overlooked:

Hollinger mentioned that, in addition to our woes last year, losses this offseason, etc. we were, last year, luckier and healthier than would be usual. And therefore luckier and healthier than should be counted on when projecting forward.

Except that we got younger and younger teams often have better health records than older teams. And we lost our best player and have no particular dependence on any one guy. If you are going to base predictions on the assumption that a team's injury luck will turn, you'd definitely short the Thunder because they had unbelievable health last year and cannot afford a major injury to Durant or even Westbrook

trust me, there are a lot of reasons to fade OKC this year if the public really backs them hard in season win totals ..... and their god like run with injuries last year is a big reason.

And when I say fade them, I don't mean in a Novi kind of way ie "omg they suck do the math (without showing math) I mean if they're projected to come 1st/2nd/3rd in the west in wins, I would really take the other side of that.

[D-Wins-RingsIMO]

Not a chance. You're not telling me you can imagine the team being this much worse than last year. Insanity.

Do the math.

Raptors:
Subtractions:
Overweight Turkoglu
Defense-Allergic Bosh
Inconsistent Marco Beli
Bosh "Distraction"
Rookie tag on DeRozan

Additions:
Ed Davis (who is not 210 pounds at all, much closer to 230-235 with a fairly solid base)
Linas
Barbosa
Second Year DeRozan
Less Jose in the lineup
More minutes for Amir Johnson
One year more experienced/better Weems
Perhaps a renewed Bargnani..another year older,stronger,wiser and finally not playing with a black-hole next to him like Bosh

If I am correct in my belief that Bosh hindered ball movement, hurt interior defense and generally disrupted chemistry with his off court distractions, inability to play with the team (20,10, allstar, MVP crap).. and his lack of willingness to foul to protect his stats and thus making us softer on the inside..

and I'm also correct in saying that
Less Calderon=better defense
Barbosa will have a bounce back year
Turk was much worse than Linas overall, esp as a rebounder and shooter
DeRozan, Weems and Johnson will show to be much better
the chemistry with Jack/Linas/Bargnani as leaders will be better than with Bosh +co
Turk was a distraction and caused the team to be worse
Triano may finally be more able to do what's best for the team with "keeping BOsh" goal out of the way

then the Raptors should not be MUCH worse than they were last year. In fact,

if you believe as I do that Bosh wasn't as good a rebounder as Ed Davis/Amir Johnson and those 2 are replacing him, and if you also accept that they are much much better shot blockers than he was,

then the only thing that could translate to a sub-40 win season is..
1. Bargnani completely failing to deal with double teams.. which I think is possible, and won't be a problem past January but could hurt the Raptors to start off..
2. With a lack of true NUMBER 1 option, the team has chemistry problems regardless
3. the East is a LOT better than it was last year with Boston, Miami..maybe even the Wizards being a lot better..

then.. I would say..
32-34 wins is realistic.

If Bargnani doesn't struggle as many feel he will and actually does start rebounding as he vowed he would.. Ed Davis actually plays to the level he's capable of without getting injured and DeRozan takes dramatic steps forward and perhaps.. one player surpasses expectations.. Wright..Johnson..Weems..Barbosa.. and Jack just stays steady..

it isn't impossible for this team to squeeze into 7th or 8th place. Unlikely? probably. but 22 wins.. really really showing a lack of faith. If EVERYTHING goes wrong.. this team will win 23-26 games. 22 is just.. pathetic. We're not THAT bad.. and Bosh was not THAT good.

lmfao. I know you used "do the math" as a figure of speech, but still that's epically bad. While everyone is giving some legit analysis in this thread, you come in frothing at the mouth with a bunch of qualitiative stuff.

Why didn't you just pull an appel and say "BYE BYE CB4 LOSSES" or do a Fabste and fellate Europe / bash "gallacticos/the Heat" by the way Fabste what's up homey did you watch the World Championships?

I mean ppl are trying to put estimates on CB4's wins and you just say he's not THAT good. lol. Personally I think 27 wins but I did so based on some APM work.

And to say that our absolute worst case is 26 wins is a f'ng joke. If that's the far right of your distribution, you must peg us for 40-42 wins.

When ppl say 27-30 wins, they set that as the centerpoint, ie 50/50 of going both ways. So the far right would be a 12-15 win season.

To say that if everything hits the fan we still win 26 is **** lol. Do the math brah

[postup]

Why are people getting their knickers in a twist?

I think he pretty much nails it.

I'm still saying 19 wins.

[mihaic]

Why are people getting their knickers in twist?

I think he pretty much nails it.

I'm still saying 19 wins.

People are not getting their knickers in twist. They however believe it is unlikely that Bosh counted for 41-19=22 games differential, given he also 'dogged it out' for a good part of the season after the allstar break and then also the Turk is out (although I don't think Linas/Barbosa will put us over the top as a differential).

Will we have 40 games again? Unlikely but I also think that if the team is not blatantly tanking they may get more wins than we think/want as they have. I think they should go for around 28-32 and the extra losses are rather because there was some talent transfer from West to East. But then again it really is a crapshoot - it depends what Triano will ask them to play.

[Laowai]

Its a time of year that everyone can have a guess at how good or bad the Raptors will be in the upcoming year. We could win less than 20 and more than 40 because we have so many unknowns.
The known facts are that we lost in significant players Bosh and Hedo.
While Ive never been a Bosh fan you can discount what he brought to the team.
Hedo on the other hand was a negative factor both in the locker room and on the floor.

The big questions are
(1) Can Amir adjust to starter minutes buy cutting down his fouls and producing in the area of 9RPG AND 12 PPG. Can his defensive abilities translate into overcoming some of Bosh's offensive statistics.
(2) Can Davis fit into the 1st big man off the bench role that Amir fulfilled last year as far as defense while I don't see Amirs offensive numbers.
(3)Bargs what will we see? If it is the player of last year playing the perimeter not contesting rebounds then we are in trouble. I have no doubt that Bargs will get his 20 PPG on the offensive but how he will be defensively is the question. If he shows in the regular season what he showed in Europe this year it will be a breakout year for him. He p[played very smart basketball on a very bad Italian team with the second best player being Beli doing his more bad Joey than good Joey impression. Bargs played physical in many games and when faced with strong tall front lines like Belirus punished with playing to there weaknesses.
(4) Klieza for Hedo is a plus for the Raptors a cancer was cutout and we at worst got a serviceable player in Klieza 13PPG, 5RPG,1.5APG or a borderline top 10 SF 16PPG, 6RPG,3APG. Defensively he will be better than Hedo last year.
(5) DD/Weems a two headed monster will one or both become legitimate starters? I am not looking at star stats from either one but to become a legitimate starting SG or in Weems case SG/SF. If both mature our growing process will be accelerated.
(6) Jose/JJ/Barbosa we have a problem Houston I think that the Raptors can be adequate with a combination of 2 of these three players but not all 3. While Barbosa is a combo G and maybe better suited as a SG we need to give as many minutes as possible to DD & Weems at that position with Weems getting some SF time. Both Jose or JJ are adequate PG but just that like most PGs in the league they have defensive deficiencies but both have shown on the offensive side they can put up numbers in different ways. One needs to go to give back-up minutes at PG to Barbosa.
(7) New fillers Wright, Anderson, Dorsey, Alabi ( D League ) on par with last year with maybe Dorsey a pleasant surprise
(8) Old filler Banks ( emergency PG back-up ) and Evans ( likely less minutes if Dorsey steps up)

Yes a 20 game winning season is possible but my worst case would be 28 with best case about the same as last year.
In the East 6 teams not in order are locks for the playoffs Boston, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Miami, Orlando & Chicago after that it gets blurry.

[laoboy]

I'm predicting 33-49

[postup]

Why are people getting their knickers in twist?

I think he pretty much nails it.

I'm still saying 19 wins.

People are not getting their knickers in twist. They however believe it is unlikely that Bosh counted for 41-19=22 games differential, given he also 'dogged it out' for a good part of the season after the allstar break and then also the Turk is out (although I don't think Linas/Barbosa will put us over the top as a differential).

Will we have 40 games again? Unlikely but I also think that if the team is not blatantly tanking they may get more wins than we think/want as they have. I think they should go for around 28-32 and the extra losses are rather because there was some talent transfer from West to East. But then again it really is a crapshoot - it depends what Triano will ask them to play.

I definitely agree on the talent transfer front. TBH, I have a hard time seeing anybody looking worse than us in the East, with the possible exception of the Cavs.

I do think people are underestimating the impact of Bosh leaving. Forget about the lack of toughness and leadership for a second, but from a merely offensive POV, our greatest threat is probably Bargnani. I don't dislike Andrea, but I think he's very similar to Bosh in the sense that hes' not a #1 guy either. He'll be getting a whole lot more attention in the opponents' defensive schemes and quite frankly, I don't see him getting it done on a consistent basis, nor do I see anybody else on this roster stepping in.

Demar holds some promise and I like his attitude, but let's be realistic: He didn't exactly blow people away in his rookie season and we all know about the sophomore slump. Weems? Kleiza? Good role players, but that's about it. I think it's as unrealistic to expect them to carry this franchise as it is to count on Ed Davis.

Triano can talk all he wants about a team-oriented approach. It sounds nice, but I simply have no faith in him being the coach to implement and run that system. I felt he was a major failure last season and I do not think he has the stuff to be a head coach. And I say all that while admitting that he is a good guy and a very serviceable assistant coach.

I know this all sounds very pessimistic, but at the same time, I'm actually looking forward to this team finally developing some sort of identity beyond their current incarnation of walking marshmallows. I'm sticking with my 19 wins prediction, but I will feel a whole lot better about it if I can watch a team that goes out there and gives it all every night and finally develops a bit of a collective spine. Last year's team made me sick.