Hollinger forecast: Raptors 22-60 (could be worst)

[JamesNaismith]

He's absolutely right.



This team sucks; only a homer would say otherwise.

[Air Weems]

No playoffs.

Weems, Demar and Andrea will play big roles this season.

[mihaic]

Why are people getting their knickers in twist?

I think he pretty much nails it.

I'm still saying 19 wins.

People are not getting their knickers in twist. They however believe it is unlikely that Bosh counted for 41-19=22 games differential, given he also 'dogged it out' for a good part of the season after the allstar break and then also the Turk is out (although I don't think Linas/Barbosa will put us over the top as a differential).

Will we have 40 games again? Unlikely but I also think that if the team is not blatantly tanking they may get more wins than we think/want as they have. I think they should go for around 28-32 and the extra losses are rather because there was some talent transfer from West to East. But then again it really is a crapshoot - it depends what Triano will ask them to play.

I definitely agree on the talent transfer front. TBH, I have a hard time seeing anybody looking worse than us in the East, with the possible exception of the Cavs.

I do think people are underestimating the impact of Bosh leaving. Forget about the lack of toughness and leadership for a second, but from a merely offensive POV, our greatest threat is probably Bargnani. I don't dislike Andrea, but I think he's very similar to Bosh in the sense that hes' not a #1 guy either. He'll be getting a whole lot more attention in the opponents' defensive schemes and quite frankly, I don't see him getting it done on a consistent basis, nor do I see anybody else on this roster stepping in.

Demar holds some promise and I like his attitude, but let's be realistic: He didn't exactly blow people away in his rookie season and we all know about the sophomore slump. Weems? Kleiza? Good role players, but that's about it. I think it's as unrealistic to expect them to carry this franchise as it is to count on Ed Davis.

Triano can talk all he wants about a team-oriented approach. It sounds nice, but I simply have no faith in him being the coach to implement and run that system. I felt he was a major failure last season and I do not think he has the stuff to be a head coach. And I say all that while admitting that he is a good guy and a very serviceable assistant coach.

I know this all sounds very pessimistic, but at the same time, I'm actually looking forward to this team finally developing some sort of identity beyond their current incarnation of walking marshmallows. I'm sticking with my 19 wins prediction, but I will feel a whole lot better about it if I can watch a team that goes out there and gives it all every night and finally develops a bit of a collective spine. Last year's team made me sick.

I think we mostly agree except for the magnitude of "suckiness" and the Bosh impact. I think that the former will depend in large measure on Triano too (and whatever strategy he will employ). The latter is yet TBD and I think that Bosh was not utilised correctly here (was asked to be superstar and produce too much, create, and as a result was too tired in 4th q usually and/or did not focus on defense) which is why imo he can be replaced. He will do very well in Miami as it is a better fit but he will not have that huge impact on the "suckines" of the Raptors by leaving from T.O.

BTW part of the last year's team failures was on Bosh too. It is unfortunate he bailed on the team (although he denies it) which contrinbuted to the team packing it in - was it mid March...

[Harry Palmer]

I didn't say we would get healthier. I said there was no reason to believe that the odds would catch up to us and we would be less healthy.

And I pointed out why I think that's improbable. So once again we have a situation where I think the norms do and will probably apply to the Raps, and you do not. I guess we'll see.

And while Davis could we be the big ticket of the long haul, I don't see it as an issue for this season beyond what he has sustained. A torn meniscus is a common injury that should not be career altering or indicative of how our season will unfold.

I don't think it defines his career, no. But it's a definite question mark, and it's already probable to suggest he will miss games, this early in. And that's part o the youth that's supposed to offset the norms for us.

Now, on an aside, as I mentioned before, I don't think the age factor affects injuries in the way you think it does...I think I remember reading a study which showed that actually players at either extreme of their careers are more likely to sustain injuries than players in the middle....earlier because of adjustment to number of games/size of opponents, and later because of wear and tear.

So even if you discount the fact that I think Davis an example of another reason the odds won't apply to the Toronto Raptors is unlikely, I don't even think the overall thrust is correct. If we'd gone from one of the oldest teams...like if we had a bunch of 35 year olds out there last year...then sure, yeah. But for example, Bosh is our biggest loss, and he was smack in the middle of his prime.

[MacDaddy]

After all these years you guys are still betting against Hollinger?

[Harry Palmer]

After all these years you guys are still betting against Hollinger?

He's biased. They pretty much all are. The only source of objectivity about the Toronto Raptors are it's hardcore fans.

You didn't know this?

[gamer4Life]

I hope he's right and we get the #1 pick.

[Geddy]

After all these years you guys are still betting against Hollinger?

It's the same every year. Get upset when the talking heads place low expectations on this team, and then have the excuse machine fired up while tails are firmly tucked between legs when the season is over.

[Scott Carefoot]

After all these years you guys are still betting against Hollinger?

What's funny is that Hollinger's stats value offence over defence, so he must really hate this team if he thinks they'll be last in the East.

It's amusing that anyone would get annoyed that he thinks this team will win 22 games instead of 32 games, which is probably the most this team can win if everything falls into place. They don't have a new coach, they don't have a new star rookie or free agent, they lost their best player and the competition in the East just got a lot stiffer. This isn't rocket surgery (or brain science). The way I see it, if you're gonna miss the playoffs anyway, why get upset about how far down the pecking order your team is? What really matters is that they start taking strides towards building a real contender in the future.

[ATLTimekeeper]

This is where the "Hollinger and Simmons are always right" brigade come in to fend off maybe four or five people who disagree with their low-balls.

I'm more interested in Hollinger's rationale than his numbers, which I find to be off-base.

[Alfred]

After all these years you guys are still betting against Hollinger?

What's funny is that Hollinger's stats value offence over defence, so he must really hate this team if he thinks they'll be last in the East.

It's amusing that anyone would get annoyed that he thinks this team will win 22 games instead of 32 games, which is probably the most this team can win if everything falls into place. They don't have a new coach, they don't have a new star rookie or free agent, they lost their best player and the competition in the East just got a lot stiffer. This isn't rocket surgery (or brain science). The way I see it, if you're gonna miss the playoffs anyway, why get upset about how far down the pecking order your team is? What really matters is that they start taking strides towards building a real contender in the future.

I'm sort of annoyed that this team is going to win 22 games, because watching games is going to suck. Hard. I've only missed a handful of Raptor games in 5 years, and I'm not about to start this season.

Watching a miserable 22 win team is going to be brutal. Moderating the forum for that team doubly so.

[The_Hater]

If we're betting on over/under 22 wins, I'll take the under.

This team looks like a complete mess to me. No quality scorers that can consistanty create their own shot and attract double teams. Terrible rebounding, terrible defense and terrible coaching. I think the team has nice depth but without quality starters, that's only going to help you so much.

Other than looking forward to a top 3- 5 lottery pick next summer, what is their to like about this team?

[djsunyc]

winning ain't easy in the nba. usually, most games come down to the final 5 minutes...and we really don't have any one guy that can create a basket for himself or get to the line (at least not anyone we know of yet). the hope is that derozan or bargnani can be that guy now that bosh is gone. but we won't know until we see it play out. so right now, i don't expect alot of wins. and there's not a huge difference between a team that wins 22 games and one that wins 32.

[D-Wins-RingsIMO]

there's not a huge difference between a team that wins 22 games and one that wins 32.

I disagree with this a lot. You're increasing the win total of the 22 win team by almost 50% ...... the amount of games that you get your asses absolutely beat when you're a 22 win team is much higher ...... their point differential is going to be significantly worse.

Now in terms of satisfaction, I agree with you. Winning 32 or 22 makes **** all diff since both are not playoffs ....... 22 does get you a much better shot at the #1 pick though.

[tsherkin]

This is where the "Hollinger and Simmons are always right" brigade come in to fend off maybe four or five people who disagree with their low-balls.

I'm more interested in Hollinger's rationale than his numbers, which I find to be off-base.

Well, his main focus for a chunk of the article is our historically poor defense. We haven't done a lot to really turn that over, that's for sure (and pardon the pun), we're still going to be a terr-bad defensive squad that's awful to watch on that end of the floor. He obviously doesn't think very much of Triano (then again, who really does?) and he doesn't respect our management (particularly after the Barnes incident).

Doesn't think much of Ed Davis. I don't either, at least not for this upcoming season. He's raw, lacks in significant skills. Big upside, but certainly not an immediate-impact player, even ignoring the injury concerns. Hollinger thinks well of the Alabi pick; it's a second-round selection, so take it for what it's worth, but if he's healthy, he could help our miserable, epic-fail defense.

Doesn't think much of the contract given to Amir... But he also appears to believe we gave Amir a flat $6.8M/yr deal, or something that averages out to that. I recall the fifth year being only partially guaranteed and that the contract is like 28-30 million guaranteed, which isn't all that bad given his production and potential, even factoring in the fouls. Thinks we overpaid for Kleiza, which may well be true. We won't know that for a while. Liked the Hedo deal. Completely dislikes the Andersen deal, even though it's of minimal impact. Thinks Andersen is a soft, jump-shooting big but at least acknowledges that we may never actually give up the pick we traded in order to get him.

His big issue remains that we're a spectacularly useless team at defense, and that doesn't figure to change a lot. We suck on defense, and that's the big theme through his article. Our offense was very good last year and will not be as potent this year, while our defense doesn't figure to improve that much, which means we're likely to be worse. I guess his rational for the 22 instead of 30 wins mostly holds to the idea that we'll backtrack on offense more than we'll improve on defense (if we do so at all), which will make us really, really bad.

[dacrusha]

We don't have a legit starter on this roster, we lost our clear #1 option on a top-10 offense and nothing's been done to shore up one of the all-time worst defensive performances in league history.

I don't agree with Hoillinger very often but 22-wins is about bang on.

[Ted Lasso]

This is where the "Hollinger and Simmons are always right" brigade come in to fend off maybe four or five people who disagree with their low-balls.

I'm more interested in Hollinger's rationale than his numbers, which I find to be off-base.

Did you find it off-base last year, when he said; Great offence. Terrible defence. Sounds like a .500 team to me! Because a lot of others on this board interested in his rationale sure did.

[Fairview4Life]

This is where the "Hollinger and Simmons are always right" brigade come in to fend off maybe four or five people who disagree with their low-balls.

I'm more interested in Hollinger's rationale than his numbers, which I find to be off-base.

Did you find it off-base last year, when he said; Great offence. Terrible defence. Sounds like a .500 team to me! Because a lot of others on this board interested in his rationale sure did.

He said the team last year could be really good, could be really bad, so he'd pick the middle. Any idea what he said about the 06 team? How about the 07 team? Or the Raps chances in the playoffs those years?

[Neutral 123]

We don't have a legit starter on this roster, we lost our clear #1 option on a top-10 offense and nothing's been done to shore up one of the all-time worst defensive performances in league history.

I don't agree with Hoillinger very often but 22-wins is about bang on.

Yup, that's a HUGE problem. A team full of second and third stringers, none of which have shown a real fire, a willingness to scrap night in night out. An inept coach, and the new 'leader' who looks likes he's board to death when he's playing. 22 wins is not a crazy prediction.

[darth_federer]

We re going to be like the Blue Jays this year. Everybody expects this team to suck, but they ll win 30+ games.