Kareem's Defense

[bastillon]

And now KAJ - unfortunately we don’t have data prior 1974, so 4 KAJ’s season’s are missing. But Elgee in POY threads showed us estimated DRtgs and Bucks with Jabbar weren’t nothing special on defense)

According to the numbers ElGee posted, the Bucks were 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the preceding years. Unfortunately he only ran those numbers for the top teams so we really don't know the dRtg difference, but I'm pretty sure it's upwards of 2.5.

easy to estimate:

Code: Select all

        year       combined DWS
        70             20.7
        71             23.7
        72             28.8
        73             33.3
        74             30.6
        75             19.4
        76             19.1
        77             21.8
        78             20.0
        79             22.7
        80             23.6

if lg average is 20.5 (0) and 30.6 is -4.1 then 33.3 equals -4.46, 28.8 equals -3.86, 23.7 equals -3.17. these four are also his four best defensive years. I'm not sure if I did it right though.

so let's fix Stern's data:
Abdul-Jabbar
-4,5 1973
-4,1 1974
-3,9 1972
-3,2 1971
-1,8 1987
-1,6 1981
-1,4 1986
-1,4 1982

it's still unspectacular to say the least to have 4 seasons below 3 among 20 in the NBA. he wasn't super-dominant in those seasons either so...

[ThaRegul8r]

one of our participants just posted that Boston's best defensive games in the 58 Finals might have happened with Russell on the bench, injured. If they weren't the best, they were still outstanding -- 98 points, 37.1 FG% in one, 102 points, 34.9 FG% in the second.

Of course there was no attempt at contextualization at all...

[semi-sentient]

That's because there really is no context outside of box scores, unless some articles pop-up in the coming days that give us more insight.

[Rocketsftw]

Kareem had a huge intimidation factor going on in the league via his time with the Bucks. He flat out could score inside. He was only at 60-70 percent of who he use to be by the time he was in the middle the Showtime Lakers with Magic, yet that is still an all-star caliber player.

He was never a great defender like a Hakeem or Mourning, but he had his moments. Later in his career he basically played the same card Moses Malone did where he was still good enough to be considered an All-NBAer but not a Superstar.

[ThaRegul8r]

That's because there really is no context outside of box scores, unless some articles pop-up in the coming days that give us more insight.

I'm going to provide context, which is why I reserved a post for when I had time. But I just find it interesting when people are ready to make conclusions on boxscores without first wondering what they mean or what happened during the game that made the final boxscores what they turned out to be.

[lorak]

And now KAJ - unfortunately we don’t have data prior 1974, so 4 KAJ’s season’s are missing. But Elgee in POY threads showed us estimated DRtgs and Bucks with Jabbar weren’t nothing special on defense)

According to the numbers ElGee posted, the Bucks were 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the preceding years. Unfortunately he only ran those numbers for the top teams so we really don't know the dRtg difference, but I'm pretty sure it's upwards of 2.5.

easy to estimate:

Code: Select all

        year       combined DWS
        70             20.7
        71             23.7
        72             28.8
        73             33.3
        74             30.6
        75             19.4
        76             19.1
        77             21.8
        78             20.0
        79             22.7
        80             23.6

if lg average is 20.5 (0) and 30.6 is -4.1 then 33.3 equals -4.46, 28.8 equals -3.86, 23.7 equals -3.17. these four are also his four best defensive years. I'm not sure if I did it right though.

so let's fix Stern's data:
Abdul-Jabbar
-4,5 1973
-4,1 1974
-3,9 1972
-3,2 1971
-1,8 1987
-1,6 1981
-1,4 1986
-1,4 1982

it's still unspectacular to say the least to have 4 seasons below 3 among 20 in the NBA. he wasn't super-dominant in those seasons either so...

Well, if estimations based on team DWS are accurate that puts KAJ in better light, defensively at the same level as Mutombo. So not as elite as Russell, Eaton, Ewing, Duncan or Robinson, but still one of top 10-15 of all time.

[Mamba Venom]

The 80s Lakers were a lot like the 2007 Colts. The O was ALWAYS outstanding, but they only won when they had the D to back it up too.

They won 5 times and Kareem played D in Milwaukee too.

Kareem was a great defender for 3 of the Lakers chips. We lost too much in the Finals because of poor D but when we won Kareem stepped up and Rambis and our swiss army knife.

[bastillon]

easy to estimate:

Code: Select all

        year       combined DWS
        70             20.7
        71             23.7
        72             28.8
        73             33.3
        74             30.6
        75             19.4
        76             19.1
        77             21.8
        78             20.0
        79             22.7
        80             23.6

if lg average is 20.5 (0) and 30.6 is -4.1 then 33.3 equals -4.46, 28.8 equals -3.86, 23.7 equals -3.17. these four are also his four best defensive years. I'm not sure if I did it right though.

so let's fix Stern's data:
Abdul-Jabbar
-4,5 1973
-4,1 1974
-3,9 1972
-3,2 1971
-1,8 1987
-1,6 1981
-1,4 1986
-1,4 1982

it's still unspectacular to say the least to have 4 seasons below 3 among 20 in the NBA. he wasn't super-dominant in those seasons either so...

Well, if estimations based on team DWS are accurate that puts KAJ in better light, defensively at the same level as Mutombo. So not as elite as Russell, Eaton, Ewing, Duncan or Robinson, but still one of top 10-15 of all time.

actually I screw up but realised that later.

here are correct ones:
-5,2 1973
-4,1 1974
-3,4 1972
-1,8 1987
-1,6 1981
-1,4 1986
-1,4 1982
-1,3 1971

he was great in 73 I think it was his best individual RS. too bad he wasted it with that epic meltdown in the playoffs. Thurmond or not, he should've pushed them over the top.

[TrueLAfan]

and tell me exactly why you would use individual DWS or individual DRtg when you yourself stated that these ratings have nothing to do with the reality ?

Let’s not overdo it…my comments in another thread said was

I think these types of metrics can give us general information…but that’s all it is.

When we’re going back into periods where we don’t have complete statistical breakdowns, it makes an already semi-questionable tool far more problematic. I can see team breakdowns being somewhat effectively determined; I see much bigger problems for individuals.

And this is leaving out that defense was conducted in a different manner in the past. Players were allowed to do certain they aren’t allowed to do now. Stylistic shifts in offense dictated different approaches to defense. Even if we had complete numbers, they wouldn’t necessarily show us anything. We’d be looking at an analytic tool designed for 21st century basketball to judge a game that is played in an often dissimilar way.

The guy that created Win Shares for a sport where it is far easier to determine both individual influence and marginal contributions has acknowledged that it has problems. The problems are exacerbated in basketball (specifically because of the fluid nature of team play in basketball, which results on non-statistical impact that gets lost in the noise). I mean, it’s hard for me take a tool seriously if it says that the 80s Lakers weren’t great defensive teams (they were), and that the 1985 Utah Jazz were an elite team, and they started Darrell Griffith and Adrian Dantley (who stunk on D) and Thurl Bailey and Ricky Green (who were OK). They were a fast paced team that shot well…and gave up more points than they scored. I mean, that’s just a silly assessment. You also have the 1980 Lakers being just fair defensively during the season, and having the worst defensive team rating in the playoffs. I believe they won the title that year. It could be that they played defense once or twice. It is not exactly a stretch to say that the metric is set up with a form of inherent bias. This is, again, a case where you look at the results from a statistical tool and should examine its efficacy…not accept it unquestioningly, or say something like

there's nothing wrong with the system. team defense is perfectly reflected in team DWS. if they were average defensive team for so many years then KAJ surely deserves some blame for that.

No system is perfect. No analytic tool of this type reflects things perfectly, or anything close to it. There’s no statistical analysis that has that sort of omniscience or power…and there are a few/some/a lot that are better than WS/DWS. No matter what, these are tools that are meant to be combined with observations and analysis—not to replace them.

[lorak]

I mean , it’s hard for me take a tool seriously if it says that the 80s Lakers weren’t great defensive teams (they were), and that the 1985 Utah Jazz were an elite team, and they started Darrell Griffith and Adrian Dantley (who stunk on D)

So what? Dantley was also part of the "Bad Boys" for 2 and a half seasons and they were also great on D.

and Thurl Bailey and Ricky Green (who were OK). They were a fast paced team that shot well…and gave up more points than they scored. I mean, that’s just a silly assessment.

No offence, but what are you saying is silly assessment. DRtg is very good tool to judge team defense. With 1985 Utah case is that they were much better on defense than on offense and that's why they gave up more points than scored (but thats only 9 point in whole season!). It's simply as that. Other, more particular stats confirms that - for example Jazz were second in opponents FG% (give Mark Earon credit!), they didn't fouled much (17th place in fouls, 15th in opponents FTA in 23 teams league and they were high paced team) and so on. On the other hand they were 19th in FG% (so poor offense), 18th in assist (no team play) and so on.

[Chronz]

Im kicking myself for missing this argument in its infancy, Ive always maintained that KAJ was an overrated defender. Id go as far as saying hes overrated period (I still have him in my top2-3) but people see his accolades and automatically assume hes better than anyone who ever lived.

[bastillon]

Let’s not overdo it…my comments in another thread said was

why don't you quote the whole post ? cherry-picking some parts doesn't really prove your point when I was refering mainly to the rest of what you wrote in that thread.

No system is perfect. No analytic tool of this type reflects things perfectly, or anything close to it. There’s no statistical analysis that has that sort of omniscience or power…and there are a few/some/a lot that are better than WS/DWS. No matter what, these are tools that are meant to be combined with observations and analysis—not to replace them.

show me a better statistical tool than team DWS to evaluate team defense. also explain why it's better. it's easy to point out some silly flaws when you can't substitute the criticized object.

so yeah, no matter how you want to manipulate facts, the story remains: Kareem's teams never dominated defensively like those of the best defensive players in history. Russell, Wilt, Thurmond, Mark Eaton, Hakeem, Ewing, Robinson, Mutombo, Alonzo, Duncan, Ben Wallace, Garnett (and Dwight if he sustains his current level) were clearly playing on better defensive teams.

there could be 2 possible explanations:

1) Kareem's teammates sucked defensively in a historical manner. never heard of this and probably never will.
2) Kareem's defensive impact is overrated.

I'm now leaning towards option 2): one of the best in his era, but not an all-timer defensively.

[tsherkin]

show me a better statistical tool than team DWS to evaluate team defense. also explain why it's better. it's easy to point out some silly flaws when you can't substitute the criticized object.

This is not a valid argument; the absence of a superior tool does not absolve the current tool of its flaws...

[bastillon]

this tool is still better than "no tool". anyway since you're here maybe you can criticize team DWS as an analytic tool ? you always seemed to have been a great advocate...

and what's your opinion on the results Stern and I presented ? it's your post actually that started that thread (I replied in another topic etc) so it'd be interesting to see your point of view.

[WillBLACK]

show me a better statistical tool than team DWS to evaluate team defense. also explain why it's better. it's easy to point out some silly flaws when you can't substitute the criticized object.

This is not a valid argument; the absence of a superior tool does not absolve the current tool of its flaws...

Don't ruin it for him!! He won't be able to contribute to his biases anymore.

[microfib4thewin]

show me a better statistical tool than team DWS to evaluate team defense. also explain why it's better. it's easy to point out some silly flaws when you can't substitute the criticized object.

This is not a valid argument; the absence of a superior tool does not absolve the current tool of its flaws...

Like I said, ignore Bastillion. His constant use of double standards when it comes to players he want to defend is mind boggling funny. He's not any more objective than a typical fan who will do anything to defend his hometown team.

[tsherkin]

this tool is still better than "no tool". anyway since you're here maybe you can criticize team DWS as an analytic tool ? you always seemed to have been a great advocate...

and what's your opinion on the results Stern and I presented ? it's your post actually that started that thread (I replied in another topic etc) so it'd be interesting to see your point of view.

I will return to this thread later, I don't have quite the time I need to address this topic. It's a good one and a deep one, and I want to give it proper time. Can't just wing it, sadly...

[JordansBulls]

Im kicking myself for missing this argument in its infancy, Ive always maintained that KAJ was an overrated defender. Id go as far as saying hes overrated period (I still have him in my top2-3) but people see his accolades and automatically assume hes better than anyone who ever lived.

Who else do you put ahead of him? I would say only MJ and Russell have cases over him.

[bastillon]

Im kicking myself for missing this argument in its infancy, Ive always maintained that KAJ was an overrated defender. Id go as far as saying hes overrated period (I still have him in my top2-3) but people see his accolades and automatically assume hes better than anyone who ever lived.

Who else do you put ahead of him? I would say only MJ and Russell have cases over him.

I'd say Magic, Bird and Duncan have cases over him as well.

[semi-sentient]

I will return to this thread later, I don't have quite the time I need to address this topic. It's a good one and a deep one, and I want to give it proper time. Can't just wing it, sadly...

Looking forward to your post. Knock 'em out.