John Hollingers Player Ratings(Any Info?)

[QuantumMacgyver]

Just wondering if anyone out there has seen this article and could fill us non-insiders in.

[JDubJazz]

Here are his projected stat lines for Jazz players (some guys like Hayward didn't have a projection), but I didn't include the write ups for each player. He seems somewhat pessimistic about the Jazz this year as a team, but there was nothing particularly insightful in the article that I found, other than his typical number crunching.

DERON WILLIAMS, PG
Projection: 19.6 pts, 4.1 reb, 11.0 ast per 40 min; 19.79 PER

C.J. MILES, SG
Projection: 16.7 pts, 4.3 reb, 4.2 ast per 40 min; 11.23 PER

ANDREI KIRILENKO, SF
Projection: 15.1 pts, 6.5 reb, 3.7 ast per 40 min; 15.80 PER

PAUL MILLSAP, PF
Projection: 16.4 pts, 10.0 reb, 2.3 ast per 40 min; 16.86 PER

AL JEFFERSON, C
Projection: 21.2 pts, 11.0 reb, 2.1 ast per 40 min; 19.53 PER

MEHMET OKUR,C
Projection: 17.0 pts, 9.3 reb, 2.2 ast per 40 min; 14.84 PER

RONNIE PRICE, PG
Projection: 13.3 pts, 3.6 reb, 5.9 ast per 40 min; 10.40 PER

EARL WATSON, PG
Projection: 10.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 7.1 ast per 40 min, PER 10.20

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp10/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=JazzProfiles1011

[QuantumMacgyver]

Thanks man. It seems like most writers are down on the Jazz this year. Hopefully they aren't right.

[erudite23]

Keep in mind, his PER are based off historically similar players at the same stages of their career (or same age). Thus there is often a regression to the mean in the numbers/projections and they are usually on the conservative side. Also, they don't take into account changes in role or team, and naturally can't account for injury issues, etc. AK will outproduce that PER, so will Deron and its very likely that Al will as well. If Millsap's move into the SL has the effect I think it will, he will also easily best it.

Its a nice frame of reference, but he it isn't anything to take too seriously.

[BarneyGumble]

I'd like for Al to prove he is a 21 and 11 guy for us before we anoint him as such. I am optimistic but those numbers are overly optimistic for a young guy in a new/complex system IMHO.

[erudite23]

21 and 11 is per 40 minutes. Pro rated for his more usual 36mpg they translate to about 18.9 and 9.9 per game, respectively. Which, I would say, is more than a little conservative. His rebounding will be over 10 per game, barring injury and provided that he gets at least 35mpg. I would put everything I own on that. And if he only scores 19 per game, he will be doing it on 56%+ shooting, as it will likely mean that he is being very selective with his shots.