Are the Wizards a Playoff Team This Year?

[JWizmentality]

Can't get a rebound if the ball goes splash = playoffs.

Ha, you're making my point. Our defense is going to struggle, because even when we do force missed shots, we're not going to corral enough of them. We can't run without the ball and we can't run off makes. Our bigs are going to commit a ton of fouls and we're going to have to play some form of small ball alot -- either under-lengthed or under-strengthed (look ma, I made up words!), a lot of the time. Less talented teams are going to push us around, slow us down, and wear us out.

30-35 wins. 9-11 seed.

I think they'll be fine. It's not like we're running with Jamison anymore. This is a fairly young group that shouldn't get worn out that easily (McGee notwithstanding). Yi's rebounding has been very impressive of late as well and he's been playing himself into big minutes this season.

40-45 wins. 6-8 seed

[fishercob]

JWiz, I would love it if you're right. I've been burned too much being overly optimistic, and I see serious holes up front.

[no D in Hibachi]

I think the Wiz will greatly improve their perimeter defense. Just based on the Mavs game and Dave Johnson's call last night it seems like there is less guard penetration, which should really help out the bigs. Teams with interior offensive presences will eat the Wiz alive, but perimeter oriented teams will stuggle against the Wiz.

If you look at the 6 players who project to be the Wiz rotation perimeter players (Wall, Hinrich, Young, Thornton, Howard, and Arenas) you could say that 5 of the 6 are at least average defenders and I consider Wall, Hinrich, and Howard above average. Only Arenas is the weak link, but I feel playing 2 guards rather than PG will do wonders for him.

[Nivek]

I'm where you are fish (except slightly less optimistic). They have a ways to go on both ends of the floor. I'm hoping that the optimists have it right, but it would take a marked change in the way the team played last year for things to turn around that significantly. The Wiz were putrid on offense last season, and weak on defense. They earned their record. There's potential on the roster, but there are too many times to count that potential has not been realized.

[TheGreatWall]

Rebounding and turnovers are going to be the issue. I think, defensively, the team will be middle of the pack -- ranked anywhere from 10-15th overall. Offensively, they'll be anywhere from 15-20th. I think they will be ranked near the bottom in rebounding and turnovers, unfortunately.

36 wins, no playoffs.

[pineappleheadindc]

I think the Wiz will greatly improve their perimeter defense. Just based on the Mavs game and Dave Johnson's call last night it seems like there is less guard penetration, which should really help out the bigs. Teams with interior offensive presences will eat the Wiz alive, but perimeter oriented teams will stuggle against the Wiz.

If you look at the 6 players who project to be the Wiz rotation perimeter players (Wall, Hinrich, Young, Thornton, Howard, and Arenas) you could say that 5 of the 6 are at least average defenders and I consider Wall, Hinrich, and Howard above average. Only Arenas is the weak link, but I feel playing 2 guards rather than PG will do wonders for him.

Astute observation.

I know it's early, but it appears that we're doing a whole lot better at defending the pick and roll (well, maybe Hilton Armstrong needs a little work at it). It requires coordination and teamwork from the guard, the big, and the weak-side big. In Dallas at least, we jammed the guard well on the PNR, then our strong side big did a good job (again, execpt Armstrong) of blocking the roller who was also picked up quickly by the weak side big.

Pick and rolls have traditionally killed the Wizards. If we can shore up PNRs and also close out aggressively, but in control, on good shooters behind the 3 pt line, we'll be a lot better.

[nate33]

One thing is certain, this team will be great on the fast break. Everyone in the rotation save Hinrich is a legit finisher on the break, and there are at least four guys in the regular rotation (Wall, Arenas, Hinrich and Blatche) who can lead the fast break. And our big men can all run the floor like crazy.

[Zonkerbl]

The most efficient defenses force misses and get defensive rebounds. Trying to play defense by getting steals and running is a poor second best strategy. I think this team will be good at forcing misses but lousy at getting the rebounding, and relatively strong at forcing turnovers and running the floor.

Howard might help us get defensive rebounds, I have no idea what his stats are but he strikes me as someone who might help out there.

You can win a lot of games in the regular season playing with more energy than the other team. I think this team may surprise people and sneak into the playoffs, to get swept by Miami or Boston. Depends on everybody's health of course.

[fishercob]

I think the Wiz will greatly improve their perimeter defense. Just based on the Mavs game and Dave Johnson's call last night it seems like there is less guard penetration, which should really help out the bigs. Teams with interior offensive presences will eat the Wiz alive, but perimeter oriented teams will stuggle against the Wiz.

If you look at the 6 players who project to be the Wiz rotation perimeter players (Wall, Hinrich, Young, Thornton, Howard, and Arenas) you could say that 5 of the 6 are at least average defenders and I consider Wall, Hinrich, and Howard above average. Only Arenas is the weak link, but I feel playing 2 guards rather than PG will do wonders for him.

Astute observation.

I know it's early, but it appears that we're doing a whole lot better at defending the pick and roll (well, maybe Hilton Armstrong needs a little work at it). It requires coordination and teamwork from the guard, the big, and the weak-side big. In Dallas at least, we jammed the guard well on the PNR, then our strong side big did a good job (again, execpt Armstrong) of blocking the roller who was also picked up quickly by the weak side big.

Pick and rolls have traditionally killed the Wizards. If we can shore up PNRs and also close out aggressively, but in control, on good shooters behind the 3 pt line, we'll be a lot better.

Wall is a huge upgrade athletically in the backcourt and I think his "defensive awareness" or "defensive feel" will prove to be pretty solid too. But it's going to be a growth process and he'll have a steep learning curve. NBA offenses are going to attack him to put pressure on him, expose his weaknesses, get in his head, make him worry about fouling, etc. It's going to take him time to make the necessary adjustments. I expect him to struggle -- as all our young guys will -- for some decent chunks.

[gesa2]

We'll be entertaining, we'll beat some good teams that we shouldn't, but our defensive rebounding will be bottom 5 in the league. As Pat Riley said way back in the showtime era "No rebounds, no rings". For us it's no rebounds no playoofs -- 35 wins.

[JWizmentality]

McGee's gonna mop the floor with you haters....right after he catches his breath.

[queridiculo]

McGee's gonna mop the floor with you haters....right after he catches his breath.

All kidding aside, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team surprise a few people and fight for the 8th spot if the Wizards can remain relatively healthy for once.

You get the sense that the kids are hungry to prove themselves, and it seems like we got just the right mix between vets and up and youngins.

Really looking forward to Howard being back in the fold as well. The sense of enthusiasm he was able to instill in this team in the few games he's played was quite refreshing.

[Brenice]

I think this team is a playoff team, but if "the world" keeps stoning Gil, they won't make the playoffs. I think this Wiz team is better than any Bullet/Wiz team in 30 years. Outside of the Big 3 in the past few years, there was nothing else on the roster.

[pancakes3]

I think this team is a playoff team, but if "the world" keeps stoning Gil, they won't make the playoffs. I think this Wiz team is better than any Bullet/Wiz team in 30 years. Outside of the Big 3 in the past few years, there was nothing else on the roster.

yeahhhhhh buddy. optimism!

seriously though, we just hit the lotto twice in adding wall AND gil. how many teams do you think could swap out a merry-go-round backcourt of foye/miller/young/livingston for gil/wall/hinrich and still only manage to improve 4 games?

yeah. +4 wins. we won 26 games last season and still people are calling for a 30 win season? yipes.

[AceDegenerate]

The only thing that stops this team from making the playoffs is injury.

With no significant time missed by Wall, Arenas or Blatche. I'm predicting 45 Wins, 6th seed and possible winning 1st Rd series.

+20 games missed by either of Wall, Arenas or Blatche. I'm predicting 35 Wins and just missing the 8th seed.

[fishercob]

I think this team is a playoff team, but if "the world" keeps stoning Gil, they won't make the playoffs. I think this Wiz team is better than any Bullet/Wiz team in 30 years. Outside of the Big 3 in the past few years, there was nothing else on the roster.

yeahhhhhh buddy. optimism!

seriously though, we just hit the lotto twice in adding wall AND gil. how many teams do you think could swap out a merry-go-round backcourt of foye/miller/young/livingston for gil/wall/hinrich and still only manage to improve 4 games?

yeah. +4 wins. we won 26 games last season and still people are calling for a 30 win season? yipes.

Incomplete, cakes. We swapped a frontcourt (3/4/5) rotation of Miller, Butler, Haywood, Jamison, Oberto, Blatche, McGee for a partial season of Josh Howard, Blatche, McGee, Yi, Booker, Sera, etc.

We're better off long term, but short term we're worse overall up front.

[JonathanJoseph]

I think this team is a playoff team, but if "the world" keeps stoning Gil, they won't make the playoffs. I think this Wiz team is better than any Bullet/Wiz team in 30 years. Outside of the Big 3 in the past few years, there was nothing else on the roster.

yeahhhhhh buddy. optimism!

seriously though, we just hit the lotto twice in adding wall AND gil. how many teams do you think could swap out a merry-go-round backcourt of foye/miller/young/livingston for gil/wall/hinrich and still only manage to improve 4 games?

yeah. +4 wins. we won 26 games last season and still people are calling for a 30 win season? yipes.

Agreed. I'm shocked at the pessimism around here. If we go with the 22 win post post-trade deadline pace, I'm adding 10 wins for Wall and 10 wins for Arenas.

Defensive rebounding is and will be a concern. And needless to say, that will need to solved somehow before the Wizards are actual contenders. But that's not going to make the Wizards a horrid, 30 win team. That's what will get them knocked out of the playoffs in the first round.

Fish, we did this dance once before. You keep saying the team will be bad defensively but that just doesn't seem to be manifesting itself in anything other than sad-Wizards history. The team is playing good defense as a team and all of a sudden boasts a number of very good individual defensive players (Wall, Hinrich, Booker, Blatche) and Gilbert Arenas is playing honest-to-goodness defense. And for all of Javale McGee's defensive faults, he is an intimidator in the lane and is blocking shots. He's got a long way to go, but he's having an impact now.

I'm still holding off on a final prediction, because I've only seen 1 pre-season game and a few highlights, but how everyone isn't over the top optimistic right now I have no idea. That was a championship contender on the road in Dallas and the Wizards ran them off the floor, despite it being obvious that John Wall will be much better very soon. But my 42-47 win range and a playoff berth from earlier this summer still looks good to me.

But taking all the other reasons out, I'd say most if not all of you are discounting the impact that John Wall will have right off the bat. Despite his learning curve, he has "it" that goes beyond any skills or athletic ability. He's just a winner. 35-3 at Kentucky. 4-1 in Summer League. 2-0 in preseason. Sure, let's see what happens in the regular season, but at some point all that winning is not a coincidence.

John Wall and the cast of misfits that ended last season might have been a .500 squad.

[JonathanJoseph]

Incomplete, cakes. We swapped a frontcourt (3/4/5) rotation of Miller, Butler, Haywood, Jamison, Oberto, Blatche, McGee for a partial season of Josh Howard, Blatche, McGee, Yi, Booker, Sera, etc.

We're better off long term, but short term we're worse overall up front.

Maybe. But we have the best backcourt in the NBA by midseason and I was going on the post-trade win pace.

[leswizards]

Incomplete, cakes. We swapped a frontcourt (3/4/5) rotation of Miller, Butler, Haywood, Jamison, Oberto, Blatche, McGee for a partial season of Josh Howard, Blatche, McGee, Yi, Booker, Sera, etc.

We're better off long term, but short term we're worse overall up front.

I am not so sure about that. Butler had a decent year last year, but it was still below average for him. If Howard, can hit his career averages, it shouldn't be to hard for him to equal or surpass what Butler gave the Wizards last season. Jamison had a very good season last season as well. However, his defensive deficiencies make it plausible that Blathce/Yi could come very close to replacing Jamison/Blatche. Miller was good, but he was so injured that it shouldn't be too hard for Flip to get more than enough production from Nick/Al/Booker to replace him. I expect Armstrong/Seraphim to be more than equal to what the Wizards got from Oberto. That only leaves Haywood versus McGee. I am guessing that McGee will not be able to match what the Wizards got from Haywood last season. Regardless, the fact that the Wizards had Haywood for only half a season, and that the back court is so drastically improved this year, I kind of agree with those who think that a mere 4 game improvement is a tad pessimistic.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think this team is a playoff team, but if "the world" keeps stoning Gil, they won't make the playoffs. I think this Wiz team is better than any Bullet/Wiz team in 30 years. Outside of the Big 3 in the past few years, there was nothing else on the roster.

yeahhhhhh buddy. optimism!

seriously though, we just hit the lotto twice in adding wall AND gil. how many teams do you think could swap out a merry-go-round backcourt of foye/miller/young/livingston for gil/wall/hinrich and still only manage to improve 4 games?

yeah. +4 wins. we won 26 games last season and still people are calling for a 30 win season? yipes.

And with the 26 games, the Wizards had the worst of luck and a ton of injuries, but not as much talent as they do now. I think folks are just accustomed to the Wizards having injuries and bad luck.

This team has a new owner, fresh legs, all kinds of athleticism, and they won't lose games playing a big three 40+ minutes. This team will make plays late in games. I don't see the rebounding being something they can't solve. This team can run with the best of them. Like Pine mentioned, they defend pick-and-role much better than in the past. Helps to have a 7 footer or close at PF who can move.

This team will win 40 games, easily, IMO. Teams that win have three scorers. Washington has Arenas, Blatche, and Wall. Wall has Yi and McGee on the wings just waiting for dunks. Josh Howard is a legit slasher. Young is a legit scorer. Thornton is a leaper and fighting to make the team.

Why all the pessimism over rebounding? This is going to be a great season for the Wizards.