What is the expected rotation minutes distribution?

[azuresou1]

Something like the following?

PG: Flynn (32)/Ridnour (12)/Telfair (4)
SG: Brewer (30)/Webster (12)/Ellington (6)
SF: Johnson (25)/Beasley (12)/Webster (11)
PF: Beasley (20)/Love (18)/Pekovic (10)
C: Love (20)/Darko (18)/Pekovic (5)/Koufos (5)

Love - 38
Flynn - 32
Beasley - 32
Brewer - 30
Johnson - 25
Webster - 23
Darko - 18
Pekovic - 15
Ridnour - 12
Ellington - 6
Koufos - 5
Telfair - 4

[Krapinsky]

LMAO @ 38 minutes for Love. How many frontcourt players in the NBA played 38 min/gm last year?

WHEN Flynn get's healthy I suspect the average minute distribution will look something like this:

Flynn (32) / Ridnour (16)

Johnson (24) / Webster (8) / Brewer or Ellington (16)
Beasley (24) / Webster (24) /

Love (32) / Beasley (8) / Tolliver (8)
Darko (24) / Pek (16) / Tolliver (8)

When Tolliver and Love are in the game, either could be considered the center

[AQuintus]

I don't think anyone can really say what the minute distribution will look like with any certainty. The roster's too different compared to last year, there's too much uncertainty concerning a few positions (SG especially), and we don't know how much Rambis will change his rotations from game-to-game to exploit match ups. With that said, here are a few things I'm pretty confident in saying:

Love isn't going to be playing 38 minute or starting (and maybe not even playing) at the C spot. Beasley is probably going to be starting at the 3. Webster is probably going to be getting around 30 minutes per game. Brewer is probably going to be the odd man out in the rotation, and is certainly not going to be getting anywhere close to 30 minutes per game.

If it were up to me, I'd say:

C: Darko(28),Pekovic (15-20), Love (0-5)
PF: Love(28-33), Tolliver(15), Beasley(0-5)
SF: Beasley(30-35), Webster(13-18)
SG: Johnson(25-30), Webster(8-13),Brewer(10)
PG: Flynn(30-35), Ridnour(13-18)

Darko - 28
Pekovic- 15
Love- 33
Tolliver - 15
Beasley - 35
Webster - 30
Johnson- 25
Brewer - 10
Flynn - 30
Ridnour - 18
Ellington - Spot
Koufos - Spot
Hayward - D-League
Telfair - Bench

[Krapinsky]

I don't think anyone can really say what the minute distribution will look like with any certainty. The roster's too different compared to last year, there's too much uncertainty concerning a few positions (SG especially), and we don't know how much Rambis will change his rotations from game-to-game to exploit match ups. With that said, here are a few things I'm pretty confident in saying:

Love isn't going to be playing 38 minute or starting (and maybe not even playing) at the C spot. Beasley is probably going to be starting at the 3. Webster is probably going to be getting around 30 minutes per game. Brewer is probably going to be the odd man out in the rotation, and is certainly not going to be getting anywhere close to 30 minutes per game.

If it were up to me, I'd say:

C: Darko(28),Pekovic (15-20), Love (0-5)
PF: Love(28-33), Tolliver(15), Beasley(0-5)
SF: Beasley(30-35), Webster(13-18)
SG: Johnson(25-30), Webster(8-13),Brewer(10)
PG: Flynn(30-35), Ridnour(13-18)

Darko - 28
Pekovic- 15
Love- 33
Tolliver - 15
Beasley - 35
Webster - 30
Johnson- 25
Brewer - 10
Flynn - 30
Ridnour - 18
Ellington - Spot
Koufos - Spot
Hayward - D-League
Telfair - Bench

That's why I said average minute distribution and not "rotation".

[C.lupus]

I'm going to go out on a short limb and say Flynn doesn't get 30+ mpg. I'm thinking something closer to Flynn (28) / Ridnour (20) once Jonny gets back to full strength and gets the rust off (which might not be until the allstar break).

My guess to start the season:
Ridnour (30) / Telfair (8) / Flynn (10) - gradually getting more minutes
Brewer (18) / Webster (28) / Ellington (2)
Beasley (24) / Johnson (24)
Love (32) / Tolliver (10) / Beasley (6)
Milicic (28) / Pekovic (15) / Koufus (3) / Tolliver (2)

With Brewer, Telfair, Koufus traded by the deadline - Flynn, Ellington, Hayward, and Pekovic picking those minutes.

[TDWOLVESFAN]

PG: Flynn (26)/Ridnour (18)/Telfair (4)
SG: Brewer (22)/Webster (17)/Johnson(5)/Ellington (4)
SF: Beasley (22)/Johnson (15)/Webster (11)
PF: Love (30)/Tolliver (10) / Beasley (8)
C: Darko (24)/Pekovic (16)/Tolliver (4) Koufos (4)

Beasley - 30
Love - 30
Webster - 28
Flynn - 26
Darko - 24
Brewer - 22
Johnson - 20
Ridnour - 18 after Flynn's return - 26 before his return
Pekovic - 16
Tolliver - 14
Ellington - 4 after Flynn's return - 8 before his return
Koufos - 4
Telfair - 4 after Flynn's return - 18 before his return

[PHTown]

I can bite my tongue no longer. The thought of Johnny Flynn as the starting point guard in this system again makes me throw up in my mouth a bit. He was awful last year. Especially on D. his +/- was ridiculously horrible even relative to the rest of the team(as one example). I'm ok with him coming off the bench but I can't understand why most people are looking forward to having him return as the starting point. Ridnour is not great, but he is smart, plays the system, and at least tries on D, and watching him doesn't bring the taste of vomit to my mouth.

[Krapinsky]

I can bite my tongue no longer. The thought of Johnny Flynn as the starting point guard in this system again makes me throw up in my mouth a bit. He was awful last year. Especially on D. his +/- was ridiculously horrible even relative to the rest of the team(as one example). I'm ok with him coming off the bench but I can't understand why most people are looking forward to having him return as the starting point. Ridnour is not great, but he is smart, plays the system, and at least tries on D, and watching him doesn't bring the taste of vomit to my mouth.

I'm not sure what there is to debate.

1. Are we going to be a playoff team with Ridnour?

No.

2. Is Johnny's improvement more important to the longterm health of the franchise than a couple of wins?

YES.

Johnny starts. Period.

[azuresou1]

So I will admit that my sample size of Flynn's play was limited, but he looked great the few times I saw him, whenever Al Jefferson wasn't being a black hole and Love wasn't missing shots.

[re49gb_2gho32fp]

I can bite my tongue no longer. The thought of Johnny Flynn as the starting point guard in this system again makes me throw up in my mouth a bit. He was awful last year. Especially on D. his +/- was ridiculously horrible even relative to the rest of the team(as one example). I'm ok with him coming off the bench but I can't understand why most people are looking forward to having him return as the starting point. Ridnour is not great, but he is smart, plays the system, and at least tries on D, and watching him doesn't bring the taste of vomit to my mouth.

Warning: unbiased comment incoming

What this guy said. It took me a handfull of games that i watched last season of the wolves (countable on the fingers of one hand) to emerge to this conclusion. This guy is plain awful. Not only does he not fit the system you're struggling to demonstrate - in which he factors a significant constraint - but i fear this is at best a backup pg on a nba team for the coming years, who will evolve in spot minutes man. Im sorry, but Brewer and Flynn should be nowhere near your bench if the team desires sustaining a result.

[Ice32]

I think by the end of the pre-season, the minutes distribution will be easier to determine based on the players performances. Personally, I think the starting 5 and the minutes will change significantly by the All-Star break, due to potential injuries and trades, which is part of the business.

For me, over the entire season if all current players are still here at the end (10 man rotation) minutes look like:

PG - Flynn-25, Ridnour-23

SG - Brewer-23, Webster-20, Johnson-5

SF - Beasley-25, Johnson-20, Webster-3

PF - Love-33, Beasley-10, Tolliver-5

C - Milicic-23, Pekovic-20, Tolliver-5

I dont think Telfair, Ellington, Hayward or Koufos will get alot of playing time.

[Krapinsky]

So players with bad rookie years are awful NBA players and shouldn't be given time to improve? Oh okay.

Compare the rookie years of 6 of the best point guards in the league and get back to me.

Deron Williams
Jason Kidd
Chauncey Billups
Russell Westbrook
Rajon Rondo
Tony Parker

[PHTown]

Compare the rookie years of 6 of the best point guards in the league and get back to me.

Deron Williams
Jason Kidd
Chauncey Billups
Russell Westbrook
Rajon Rondo
Tony Parker

I am not saying that Flynn should not be given time to improve. I am saying that he should not be given that time at the significant detriment of the rest of the team. Look at his Wins produced and +/-, guy was one of the worst players in terms of affect on the second worse team in the league. Watching him last year was painful.

Flynn's biggest problems were defense and decision making. The problem with those things is that they are primarily effort, experience, and intelligence issues. Non-of which get remedied easily or quickly. He might be fine in another offense, but in this one he is not going to be good soon. I'm not saying he shouldn't get time, I just don't want to see him as the primary option when he is uncapable or unwilling of running the offense and uncapable or unwilling of defending his man.

The wolves want to be better, we want them to be better. Having a guy playing ole defense at the point and selfish, dribble at four people, jump in the air and throw the ball up randomly hoping for the foul, offense, as your primary PG is not going to lead to many wins.

Start Flynn? fine. However, he should be used thereafter primarily against the second unit, where he can learn to run the offense and play defense and get the experience not to be a detriment to a group of guys who want to win.

[Krapinsky]

The more Flynn plays now benefits the team in the longterm. If you sit him now, perhaps we benefit by winning a couple more games, but it's to our longterm detriment in terms of Flynn's development and trade value.

[azuresou1]

Compare the rookie years of 6 of the best point guards in the league and get back to me.

Deron Williams
Jason Kidd
Chauncey Billups
Russell Westbrook
Rajon Rondo
Tony Parker

I am not saying that Flynn should not be given time to improve. I am saying that he should not be given that time at the significant detriment of the rest of the team. Look at his Wins produced and +/-, guy was one of the worst players in terms of affect on the second worse team in the league. Watching him last year was painful.

Flynn's biggest problems were defense and decision making. The problem with those things is that they are primarily effort, experience, and intelligence issues. Non-of which get remedied easily or quickly. He might be fine in another offense, but in this one he is not going to be good soon. I'm not saying he shouldn't get time, I just don't want to see him as the primary option when he is uncapable or unwilling of running the offense and uncapable or unwilling of defending his man.

The wolves want to be better, we want them to be better. Having a guy playing ole defense at the point and selfish, dribble at four people, jump in the air and throw the ball up randomly hoping for the foul, offense, as your primary PG is not going to lead to many wins.

Start Flynn? fine. However, he should be used thereafter primarily against the second unit, where he can learn to run the offense and play defense and get the experience not to be a detriment to a group of guys who want to win.

Kevin Durant was one of the worst players in the league going by +/- and WP until his third year in the league. Flynn obviously is not on his level, but the point holds that +/- doesn't mean jack for young players on bad teams.

[Peezo]

I don't know why this turned into an argument of Flynn's value going forward, but I have to agree with Krap that developing Jonny is an important step going forward. I think for a number of reasons we can look at Jonny's year last year and say that his numbers were worth throwing out (although they were pretty poor).

First - Playing in the triangle offense was a transition for every player on our team and Rambis always said it was hardest on the point guard. He compared him to other rookie points using Jennings, Lawson, and including Curry, saying that if Jonny was asked to do what they were doing he would have the same numbers. Flynn was instead asked to play almost completely out of his comfort zone.

Second - A lot of young points struggle with defense in their first years in the pros, but almost none of them are coming from Syracuse's 2-3 zone. On top of that transition, how terrible was the post defense behind him? Who was protecting the rim? If you say Ryan Hollins you're fired.

Third - It is hard to put up good assist numbers when you have no shooters on the team. Not only did Jonny have almost no one to set up, he was expected to do a lot of creating with a few plodding bigs clogging the lane. Lets see him in an offense that moves faster and shoots better. He might even be able to throw an alley-oop this season!

Lastly - The point has been made over and over that Rookie point guards have such limited/varied success because it is almost completely based on opportunity and situation. Give the kid a chance to play. He could develop as much as anyone on the team. He found a way to be the best player on the court when he was at Syracuse and was probably the Big East's best kept secret. We don't know what we have with Rubio yet, so before we destroy this kids potential and trade value, lets give him the minutes we're giving Love, Darko, Webster, Beas, and Wes, and see what he can do.

[Krapinsky]

I predict that by the end of the year a lot of people are going to be in favor of trading Rubio.

[PHTown]

Kevin Durant was one of the worst players in the league going by +/- and WP until his third year in the league. Flynn obviously is not on his level, but the point holds that +/- doesn't mean jack for young players on bad teams.

That is a well illustrated point. I am aware of the limitations of the stats I quoted, but while they are limited, they are the only quantitative support for the perceptions one gets while watching. Which you are clearly aware of.

Conversely, I can counter the arguments about all the great players you guys are bringing up by pointing out: you know who also had mediocre rookie seasons: legions of mediocre players. Just because all the guys you guys pointed out got good after being mediocre as rookies, does not mean that Johnny will. However, like you illustrated, it doesn't mean he wont.

What it comes down to is, that while I do agree that Johnny will get better, I just don't believe in the guy becoming something special. Consequently, I don't have the patience that all of you do to watch him. Would I prefer him to Telfair? Oh god yes. I'm just not going to get excited about his return, and will continue to wait and hope for the first actually good PG since Casell or Brandon(not an intended Rubio reference by the way, though if it turns out that way then great).

[the_bruce]

Flynn had similar per 36 numbers to several of the top rookie PG's last year. He was in the most difficult transition situation as well. Give the kid time.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 01&y4=2010

[C.lupus]

The important question for the Timberwolves is not whether Flynn will be a superstar PG but whether he will be better than Ridnour and/or Rubio.