Are the Wizards a Playoff Team This Year?

[Hoopalotta]

also, if anyone else adds the caveat "if healthy" they can just go jump off a bridge. you can bet gamblers are scrambling to hedge their bets now after seeing wade go down with a tweaked hammy. every teams' success is banked on the health of their players. it's like saying, sure the lakers have a good chance of threepeating, as long as dr. buss doesn't liquidate their franchise and give all the money to scientology.

Yes.

Also, our final placement in the standings isn't based on our being healthy in absolute terms but rather being healthy relative to the other teams in the lower "Middle East". So, even if we lose some games to injury - and we will - that's not really a proper excuse as we can be sure that teams like Indiana, York, Jersey, Charlotte, Detroit and Philly will suffer some dingers too. Only if we've got injuries worse than the norm in that pack would we really be put out.

Jerebko's already out for the year (basically) for the Pistons and there's some issues with Murphy's back in Jersey. That's one (presumably) starting power forward down and a second wobbly before the season's even started.

Random idea, but it would be interesting if Mike Miller were to go down for a stretch early in Miami, they start blowing a bunch of games and "We feel that once we get Miller back...." becomes like a rallying cry from the front office. Forget what I said above - if you lose you're Caucasian jump shooting/4th option/glue guy, that's different. You can't overcome that. You're doomed.

[willbcocks]

also, if anyone else adds the caveat "if healthy" they can just go jump off a bridge. you can bet gamblers are scrambling to hedge their bets now after seeing wade go down with a tweaked hammy. every teams' success is banked on the health of their players. it's like saying, sure the lakers have a good chance of threepeating, as long as dr. buss doesn't liquidate their franchise and give all the money to scientology.

Yes.

Also, our final placement in the standings isn't based on our being healthy in absolute terms but rather being healthy relative to the other teams in the lower "Middle East". So, even if we lose some games to injury - and we will - that's not really a proper excuse as we can be sure that teams like Indiana, York, Jersey, Charlotte, Detroit and Philly will suffer some dingers too. Only if we've got injuries worse than the norm in that pack would we really be put out.

Jerebko's already out for the year (basically) for the Pistons and there's some issues with Murphy's back in Jersey. That's one (presumably) starting power forward down and a second wobbly before the season's even started.

Random idea, but it would be interesting if Mike Miller were to go down for a stretch early in Miami, they start blowing a bunch of games and "We feel that once we get Miller back...." becomes like a rallying cry from the front office. Forget what I said above - if you lose you're Caucasian jump shooting/4th option/glue guy, that's different. You can't overcome that. You're doomed.

I disagree for two reasons. One, I think we are more vulerable to injuries than other teams because we are so top heavy--our 3 best players are better than most of the other teams we are competing with, but the rest of our roster is considerably worse. Consequently an injury to any one of the 3 and we are in trouble.

Two, we have to finish at the top of the bad heap to make the playoffs, not in the middle. That means that we can't just be hoping for an average number of injuries--we have to have fewer than the others. I think the last playoff spot or two will be an injury lottery and we'll have to win it.

And anyway, adequately hedging is important for coming up with a good estimate. Let's say people thought Kobe and the lakers had a 90% chance of winning the championship when healthy and a 70% chance of being healthy. If someone asked you the odds of winning as the OP has done here, surely you wouldn't say 90%.

[Hoopalotta]

I disagree for two reasons. One, I think we are more vulerable to injuries than other teams because we are so top heavy--our 3 best players are better than most of the other teams we are competing with, but the rest of our roster is considerably worse. Consequently an injury to any one of the 3 and we are in trouble.

Yeah, I considered the top heavy angle, but I think that at least Indiana, Charlotte or York are similarly vulnerable. Anyway, sure 20 games of Gil lost is worse than 20 games of Rip Hamilton, but you can still plug that reasoning into what I'm talking about with conditions based on who was lost. I can accept that we're more vulnerable than some based on probability, but there are actually a lot of much celebrated DNP-IR tomato can all stars on the squads mentioned.

We can't count games 1-1, but at the end of the year we'd be able to say "Team X had the worst injuries, Team Y was next" and so on.

Two, we have to finish at the top of the bad heap to make the playoffs, not in the middle. That means that we can't just be hoping for an average number of injuries--we have to have fewer than the others. I think the last playoff spot or two will be an injury lottery and we'll have to win it.

That of course makes perfect sense in terms of the pure question of "can we make the playoffs?", but I am also addressing the "would injuries be an excuse for not making the playoffs?" question.

And anyway, adequately hedging is important for coming up with a good estimate. Let's say people thought Kobe and the lakers had a 90% chance of winning the championship when healthy and a 70% chance of being healthy. If someone asked you the odds of winning as the OP has done here, surely you wouldn't say 90%.

Obviously the injury situation's a huge variable, but if we're projecting win totals, base assumptions should account for a certain degree of games lost, even amongst our top players. It goes without saying that our projections will be well askew if we implode physically, but we're far more likely to see a gray area with injuries compared with an outright black-n'-white "Schumacher popped axle rod on the first lap" scenario.

I'm just not comfortable with the 'prefect health/biblical devastation' gradients.

[willbcocks]

New York I think is an interesting case. Barring a trade, they have one player who is head and shoulders better than everyone else and who will have to carry the team--Amare. If he gets injured, they are terrible. But as long as he's healthy, I don't think an injury to anyone else on their team would make that big a difference, especially because they are coached by Mr Regular Season, D'Antoni. They'll find a way to score and give up a lot of points regardless.

Detroit is another team that is relatively well equipped to survive injuries. They are not a good team, and potentially a very bad team, but at least they are deep in marginal starters. I feel the same way about Cleveland, except "marginal starter" should be changed to "role player."

Philly's pieces don't fit together so taking one away is as likely to help them as hurt them.

Charlotte's best player might try to get traded but he's unlikely to get injured: Larry Brown. Even with an injury, he'll probably keep them in the low playoff hunt.

Indiana and NJ are definitely vulnerable to injury, and Toronto is vulnerable to everything.


God, looking at all those teams and writing this up, the East might be terrible next year. With that and an ahead of schedule Josh Howard, I may have to revise up my win prediction.

[Dat2U]

God, looking at all those teams and writing this up, the East might be terrible next year. With that and an ahead of schedule Josh Howard, I may have to revise up my win prediction.

Yep, I think that's why you can't rule the Wizards out. I don't think anyone with confidence can say that any of those teams you mentioned are playoff locks.

I'm not sure why the media has crowned NY as a playoff team. Is Amare that much better than David Lee? Certainly Amare isn't the rebounder Lee is. Most of these teams have the same frontcourt issues we have.

NY might be starting Timofey Mosgov at C. Ponder on that for a second. I'm mean are they serious? We destroy McGee on our own board but is our situation so much worse than some other teams?

With Murphy out indefinitely in NJ, that means they'll have to depend alot on Favors sooner than they probably hoped. I like his talent but outside of Brook Lopez, the Nets have as many questions as we do upfront. And I've said that IMO, they have an unimpressive collection of talent on the wings. Are they better than last year? Yes. But it would be hard not to win more than 11 games.

Charlotte is depending on a trio of Nazr Mohammed, Boris Diaw & Tyrus Thomas. Would you have confidence in your team if it had to trot out that frontline for 82 games?

Philly is an absolute mess with a mismatched roster. Spencer Hawes is their starting C. Really? And were concerned about Javale starting? Will Elton Brand continue to be a drag on that roster as he has been since he's been in Philly?

As mentioned, Detroit has already lost arguably their best frontcourt player in Jerebko. That means Villanueva with his Jamison-like defense will likely start at PF. I guess they've also got Ben Wallace starting at C and collecting social security at the same time. I like Monroe but he's probably not going to make much of an impact right away. Is that a core that's going to scare anyone?

Toronto & Cleveland are dreck. Pure dreck. If Cleveland wins 20 games next season. Byron Scott should get coach of the year. Toronto is a legit 1st option and a legit 2nd option from being competitive. Lord knows they weren't very good WITH Bosh, its going to be real ugly without him. Their starting frontline is euro softy Andrea Bargnani & Amir Johnson. Nuff said.

All this makes me say that winning 35 games next year might be enough to make the playoffs.

The Wizards will need relatively good health, especially amongst their big three. And Flip can't take 6 months to figure out how to best use his roster like last season. He's gotta be willing to play McGee, through the good & bad b/c anything else is much worse. I still think Yi's performance is mostly fools gold and playing him instead of McGee won't really solve any problems defensively or on the boards. But even with the number of holes we have, our competition is so flawed, it might be almost impossible for us not to at least compete for a playoff spot.

[sfam]

While rebounding and the overall play of McGee are critical for the Wiz to have a playoff season, lets face it, the big issue comes down to consistency. I think the three preseason games probably give us a real taste of what we'll see in the regular season. Some games, the Wizards will "get it" - they'll fire on all cylinders, they'll rebound and everything. Other games will look like last night, and we'll start to wonder if the players are more interested in bar hopping then they are in playing hoops.

This is our Washington Wizards right now. Until they can build toward consistency, this will be the norm. The question about low 30s to low to mid 40s in wins (which I think most agree is the right range) really comes down to how consistent they get as the season wears on. Barring injuries, they'll win more the second half than the first. But I think we should expect a fairly rocky start.

[pancakes3]

i saw a lot of talk last night in the chatroom about how aggressive that gil was. i didn't see it. he seemed perfectly fine at the top of the key waiting for the wall kick-out. i'd like to think that once the season gets going in earnest, and the other team starts piling it on like they did last night in the middle quarters, Gil would start taking over the ball handling duties more. Wall had a nifty play or two playing off-the-ball.

i mean gil shot all of 3 FTs last night (and missed them all). you can bet in a grind-it-out game against the bulls he'd force the issue more inside instead of being content with taking 8 three's.

also, i don't think the rebounds are killing us as much as the rampant fouling. look at our 3 questionable big men: mcgee, yi, and seraphin. 4 fouls apiece and none of them topped 20 mins. that's 12 fouls in a cumulative 46 mins of play! end result, omar asik shooting more FT's than our all-league backcourt.

[hands11]

hands: There's a good stat for rebounding called rebounding percentage. Wiz last season were tied with 4 other teams for 7th in offensive rebounding percentage (.276). They were tied with 1 other team for 25th in defensive rebounding percentage (.724). And they had the benefit of half a season from Jamison and Haywood, both of whom did a better job on the defensive glass than anyone currently on the Wizards roster.

If you look at what players have done in the past and how playing time will likely be distributed, the Wizards look to be a very good offensive rebounding team -- probably in the neighborhood of 30-31% -- and a terrible defensive rebounding team (likely in the 68-70% range).

As for what NBA players "usually" do, it is relevant to the Wizards because they would need their players to buck long-established historical trends to get better. And, I don't believe the Wizards can get better with their current players performing at their historical norms. Guys weren't as good last season as you seem to think they were.

I think they need McGee to improve significantly in every facet of his game except shot blocking. I think Blatche needs to be far more efficient on offense and get better on the boards. Yi needs to perform better in every facet. I think Hinrich needs to get back to his 06-07 performance level for him to be a significant upgrade over what they had in the backcourt last season. I think Arenas will need to do more than score -- I'd like to see him get his PER back over 20 again.

Go down the roster -- I think everyone needs to be better than they were last year for the Wizards to make the playoffs. Wall improves them, but they need some people to step up to reach the wins range you're talking about.

I see your point. But I can't think of one thing that would more affect the efficiency of any non PG player more that great PG. How effective those players are will have a lot do with Wall, Kirk and Gil. Even defense is affected because at PG can help keep the floor balanced so they are in better position to get back on D. Now I know this doesn't answer every issue. Once on D, players need to get in position, etc but solid to great PG play has an effect on the greatest amount of players.

Now that said, we all know we are inexperienced or even undertalended up front. Which it is, we will only find out in time. We have lots of young players. Several who are brand new to the NBA game.

[hands11]

I cant remember my season prediction number but i have a feeling it was 32. I dont think it is an impossible number. Yi's play has been encouraging, McGee has looked exactly as we thought he would. Blatche has picked up pretty much where he left off. Arenas just needs a fire lit underneath him or something, but im guessing regular season we will see a different story. Wall has been putting up comparable numbers to Chris Paul in his first few games, a few less rebounds so far but more blocks, its probably a bit early to tell, but I think he will have a similar impact to rookie Paul. I know its homerism and all that but we have ourselves a stud who will end up a top 5 PG in most peoples lists within like 3 years. He seems to effect the game just by being on the court, his speed, quickness and length are always there regardless of wether his shot is falling or wether hes seeing the floor and making assists. His shot was off in that Cle game and so far it doesnt seem to be much better in the Chi game, but once he becomes a legit outside threat we will have a weapon. A pass-first Wade. Maybe thats all wishful thinking, but anyway, no playoffs this year I dont think, but we should be back there sooner rather than later if we draft well again.

Im not sure about extending Yi, need to see how he goes in regular season action before we commit i would imagine.

Nice post. Got me thinking. Of all the things that can change, I may be most confident that it is Walls jump shot that will be there sooner rather than later. And that one thing alone will have the largest impact on the team offensively. Wall usually get like 9-10 fts also. He only got 4 last night and only made one. These are his first 3 pre-season games. At every level, he needs to adjust again. He did well in SL and he has played well in pre-season so far. He had one game that was still good but not as good as we would like and it was against Rose who was the quickest PG he has faced.

If people keep in mind what we have and the fact of where we are in the pre-season ( 3 games and 2-1), I think more would think the playoffs are likely.

This team is going to be mostly about Wall, Gil and Dray. Well all three played pretty efficient last night. Dray only played 25 minutes, Gil 24 minutes and Wall 29 minutes. For the Bulls Rose and Noah played 31 each.

Come regular season, all three of them are more likely to play around 35 minutes or more in any given game.

We are not deep, so we have a lot of fall off. We go from Gil to Nick. We go from Dray and Yi to Seraphin, Hamady, Booker, McGee. We didn't even have Armstrong last night for what that is worth. At least he has played in the NBA.

[hands11]

The team is mostly Wall, Gil, Howard, Dray, Yi and Kirk for reliable players.

I would like to add Hudson to that list over Nick. Nick is not reliable. I instantly feel more comfortable if I know we could put in Hudson. Plus he won't get mental if he doesn't get minutes. I just don't know how much longer we can afford to keep Nick around. Add Hudson or Martin. I know Nick is long and a better shot but he is just so much of a dumb ass and uncoachable. Trade him for something an or bring up Hudson or Martin.

Next level is AT. We need him to be reliable. If not, we need to move him. He put in a good summer and lost some weight and has a decent history so I believe we should give him his chance. But this is one of our weak depth position until we learn more about Booker. This should be one of the pre-season goals. Play AT and Booker a lot. We need to know. AT played 31 minutes last game. 4 FTA, 4 boards 1 blk 2-4 FG. 7 Pts Not bad but need more boards and more good shots and more assertive. He has to be a factor. Consistently.

Next level is McGee and Armstrong. We know McGee wont be reliable but we need to keep him and use him. When he is on, he is explosive and affects the game.

So to me, the biggest question that we may actually get quick answers to are AT and Armstrong. The biggest move we need to make is probably Nick. His stupidness effects the whole line up on the floor and he is eating up a valuable roster spot. He never seems to be in rhythm with the team.

With Wall, Gil, and Dray getting 35 minutes or more a game, things will look more stable. Once Howard is able to go, even better. One big question is who plays center when McGee is Fing up. Will it be Dray with Yi at PF or Yi with Dray at PF. Or can Armstrong give us something reliable ? At least we have Dray as a D center to fall back on. But it will likely be McGee to start and for balance of rotation. On good McGee nights, great. That makes everything a lot easier. On bad ones, he get pulled.

So we lack depth and a solid starting center. But we have a solid starting core outside of that. Such is a team that is rebuilding.

I have about given up on Nick so just replace him with Hudson or Martin or whoever we trade him for. As for AT, give him lots of burn in the pre-season. We need to know if we are going to keep him or move him because back up and future starting SF is a big hole. At least we have prospects at C. SF is our weakest spot. Howard is great for now, but for how many minutes a game?

So for the regular season

Wall
Gil
Howard
Dray/McGee

Thats a pretty nice starting line except what you might get from McGee on D. If McGee is blowing it. First rotation is to get him out. Also, we should play Dray at defensive center. At least he can call the D and be the last line. Tell McGee to play better position D at PF and not jump so much except if he is weakside to Dray and even then, close the passing lane first. Also, McGee has more range to chance down and outside shot and maybe block it. Or pull McGee for Yi.

Wall
Gil
Howard
Dray
Yi

Either Yi or Dray at center depending on match ups. That is also a pretty nice line.

Always keep Wall or Gil out there. We are only going to get like 20 min from Howard for a while so you sub lines may look like

Kirk
Gil
AT
Yi/Dray

Still solid. Resting Howard and Wall. Wall because he will be learning and could benefit from a min on the sidelines to evaluate and adjust. Gil and Kirk are stable at the guards and Dray stable on the front line. Wall is resting for a few minutes but he will likely be playing about 38 min so we only need him out a 10 minutes. Same will be true of Gil and Dray. Dray will be the hardest player to rest since he is our most reliable PF and Center for now unless Yi shines. Next up.

Wall
Kirk/Hudson
Howard
Dray
McGee/Yi

Resting Gil. May need to rest Dray here also. Dray will need to come out as often as possible at the 1 min mark of the first three quarters so he get max rest. Depending on Howard and who we are playing, that line may need to look like this instead with Dray in.

Wall
Hudson
AT/Kirk/Booker
Dray
McGee

or with Dray out

Wall
Kirk/Hudson
Howard
McGee
Yi

This is where is gets harder. We are counting on Wall, Howard and Yi with Kirk stabilizing or Hudson. If we keep Hudson instead of Young, I would have a lot more confidence that this would work.

That's nine deep. Then you can go to the starters or something similar if players are in foul trouble or need rest. Something like

Wall
Gil
AT
Dray
Armstong

or

Wall
Gil
Booker
Dray
Yi or McGee

Thats 11 deep with Seraphin in the wings

then back to the starters

Wall
Gil
Howard
Dray
McGee/Yi

I'm not to worried about our starters once we have Howard. Getting through the rotation is going to be a little bit of a challenge specially with Howards minutes being limited to probably 20 for a while. It's going to take really great coaching to pull this off.

So it's pre-season and we have questions. We need to know more about what we can get from AT mostly since SF is an issue. Yi because we need to know how much center he can play. And Armstrong and Booker because we need depth. Also, Hudson, Marting need good looks. Lastly, Seraphin needs experience but as many has said, he isn't likely to be ready.

Thank God for pre-season. We really need it this year. So much to figure out.

[montestewart]

I will, if healthy, stick with my original prediction, which I've forgotten, but it was somewhere in the mid-30s and didn't rule out squeaking into an 8th seed. Honestly, on paper I don't see the makings of drastic improvement over the 22 win pace with Wall and Arenas added. I'll want to see how it all gels and who will be providing rebounding this year before I feel confident of anything more than that, but that doesn't lessen my excitement for this year of change and development, and I'll be overjoyed if any of McGee, Young, Yi, or Thornton can turn a corner. If some of you predicting much greater success turn out to be right, well, I'm always happy when any of my negative assessments about the Wizards turn out to be wrong.

[mls737]

Include me in the low to mid 30's/might be competitive for the 8th seed anyway crowd.

I think there are seven teams in the East that you would expect to make the playoffs if they remain healthy/there are no major roster shakeups. In rough tiers:

Miami
Boston/Orlando
Atlanta/Chicago
Charlotte/Milwaukee

Inevitably one of those teams will have injuries or a disappointing year and miss the playoffs. I would be surprised if more than one did.

The Knicks are probably more likely to make the playoffs than Washington next year, but as Dat pointed out they are looking at Timofey Mozgov and Ronny Turiaf at center right now.

Every other team in the East might be terrible (Toronto, New Jersey, Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland, Philadelphia). Likely one of these will make the playoffs. Why not us?

We do have infinitely more John Walls than Detroit.

[pancakes3]

people are so high on the knicks. i don't see it. we're so much more talented than they are. felton, azubuike, gallo, randolph, and amare? arenas would drop 30 on that team by halftime.

Gil the Thrill is definitely making us an 8th seed. another 1st round exit at the hand of LBJ. I LOVE SPORTS!

[Nivek]

pancakes -- I was basing Blatche's rebounding estimate on his post-trade performance. I estimated Wall's percentage based on what he did in college combined with what similar players have done since they entered the league. I estimated how many minutes guys would play based on what I think the rotation will be.

if you really did crunch the numbers then kudos to you. it's a lot of stat-work to do, especially just as a layman working off nothing but b-r.com. it seemed off-the-cuff because the 68-72 flew out pretty quick, and looks historically bad.

It would be bad, but I don't think historically bad. In most seasons, the worst defensive rebounding teams will be in the 68-70% range. Last season, two teams (Golden State and Phoenix) were in that range. New Jersey wasn't much better. In 08-09, 9 teams were at .717 or worse. Two teams had dreb% worse than 70%.

what other flaws do you see? wall's TOs? defense/production at the sf spot? javale's foul propensity?

They're going to struggle with offensive efficiency. Blatche is well below average with offensive effiency. His switch to being The Man had almost zero effect on his overall efficiency (I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the change was miniscule). I'm hoping that he'll improve his shot selection and cut down on turnovers with Wall and Arenas carrying more of the offensive load, but that's not what he's done previously.

I think they're going to lack perimeter shooting when Arenas is off the floor. Wall's jumper is a weak spot. Hinrich may be able to pick up some slack here, but his 3pt percentage has been up and down. Maybe Yi will come through -- if he "gets it" this year. Otherwise, there isn't much. Josh Howard is a willing 3pt shooter, but not a good one. Thornton isn't a 3pt shooter. Nick Young can shoot it, but doesn't do enough of anything else to stay on the floor. And, even with his shooting ability, he's still inefficient offensively because his 2pt percentage is low and he never passes.

On the defensive end, they're going to struggle defending SF all season. Maybe they'll be okay there when Howard gets back, but SF will probably be an issue for them all season. Opposing centers have (on average) transmogrified into a statistical Dwight Howard when McGee has been on the floor. McGee's lack of basketball IQ is compounded by the help role that centers have in the NBA. He needs to get better in a hurry if they're going to have a solid defense. Arenas's defense is a question mark. He's been an uninterested defender in the past. If he defends the way he has in the past, it'll accentuate the need for help.

I'm a bit worried about some of the strategies I've seen the team employ so far in the preseason. Pressure can give a kind of "false-positive" in the preseason. No one is preparing for it; no one is even thinking about it. So it might take a few possessions for a team to get organized. If it's a regular strategy the Wizards use, teams will gameplan for it and it won't work.

All that said, while I'm concerned about the defense overall, I think it has a good chance of being better than the offense this season. It was last season, and the roster moves they've made (Wall and Hinrich specifically) added some defenders. I'm hoping Blatche and McGee can get better too. Maybe Arenas will come around.

On offense, I think they'll struggle to be efficient, even with Wall, Hinrich and Arenas. Gil used to be among the league's most efficient high-usage offensive players. Last season his efficiency was way down. We'll see what another year of healing and a new role will do for him. Wall may help some too, if he can avoid turnovers and shoot the ball with enough efficiency to make teams pay if they play him just to drive.

i dunno, it just seems like this season we're really nitpicking at all of our faults. there was more optimism last season for (imo) a worse team. this season i guess we're once bitten (probably more) and twice (probably more) shy.

Maybe I am nitpicking. I'm just trying to be realistic about what to expect this season. Based on what these guys have done in the past, I think it's realistic to anticipate poor defensive rebounding, offensive inefficiency, and a mixed bag on defense. Improvement by key players would change things, of course.

[Nivek]

Sorry to go on so long. For those who don't want to read all that, here's the summary:

Wizards are likley to be inefficient on offense this season. Key players were inefficient last season (Blatche, Arenas, Hinrich). They may struggle with perimeter shooting when Arenas is on the bench.

Wizards are likely to be around the league average defensively (a bit better than last season), although they'll struggle at the center position unless McGee "gets it."

SF looks to be a major weakness on both ends this season.

[montestewart]

Sorry to go on so long. For those who don't want to read all that, here's the summary:

Wizards are likley to be inefficient on offense this season. Key players were inefficient last season (Blatche, Arenas, Hinrich). They may struggle with perimeter shooting when Arenas is on the bench.

Wizards are likely to be around the league average defensively (a bit better than last season), although they'll struggle at the center position unless McGee "gets it."

SF looks to be a major weakness on both ends this season.

Wow, who does both a detailed analysis and a briefer summary analysis? Nice overview, and even in the longer one it's fairly to the point.

I was talking with a friend at work, and he asked about small forward. My answer: Young, Thornton, Yi, Hinrich, Booker, Martin. In other words, I don't know until Howard returns. Rebounding, defense, or scoring, something's surely going to fall short there until Howard shows he can return to form.

[pancakes3]

Sorry to go on so long. For those who don't want to read all that, here's the summary:

Wizards are likley to be inefficient on offense this season. Key players were inefficient last season (Blatche, Arenas, Hinrich). They may struggle with perimeter shooting when Arenas is on the bench.

Wizards are likely to be around the league average defensively (a bit better than last season), although they'll struggle at the center position unless McGee "gets it."

SF looks to be a major weakness on both ends this season.

i'll put the positive spin on the shorter version.

inefficiency: a penetrating guard makes a world of difference for offensive efficiency. we added 2.

perimeter shooting: when gil's out, nick will be in. shooting is one of the few things he does right.

rebounding: no rebuttal here. we'll suck at boarding.

sf: thornton isn't looking very good and is getting limited minutes. it's a headscratcher. i thought he was at least passable at SF last season, hustling on D and finishing with regularity. i have higher hopes that he will play better once the season comes around than McGee will. if nothing else, Yi can also play sf in a pinch, and Howard is coming back.

bottom line, we're just talking about the NBA playoffs - the EASIEST playoffs to make in any of the 4 major sports. we don't have to win our division. heck, we could even come in dead last in our division (likely). As long as there are 7 teams worse than we are in the East we're in like flynn. Toronto, Jersey, Philly, Cleveland, Toronto, and Detroit are almost locks for the lottery. That just means we have to best 1 other team out of Indy, Philly, and the NYK. I personally believe that even with our weaknesses, we've got so much talent (especially in Gil) that there's no way that Philly can be better than us. We're definitely playoff-bound.

[verbal8]

Sorry to go on so long. For those who don't want to read all that, here's the summary:

Wizards are likley to be inefficient on offense this season. Key players were inefficient last season (Blatche, Arenas, Hinrich). They may struggle with perimeter shooting when Arenas is on the bench.

Wizards are likely to be around the league average defensively (a bit better than last season), although they'll struggle at the center position unless McGee "gets it."

SF looks to be a major weakness on both ends this season.

i'll put the positive spin on the shorter version.

inefficiency: a penetrating guard makes a world of difference for offensive efficiency. we added 2.

I had this thought also. It may not happen at the beginning of the season, but I think by mid-season the offense should be far more efficient with Wall setting things up. I don't have the numbers to back it up, but I had the feeling last season that the offense was a lot more effective with Livingston at the point than the other options. Wall should be a far better playmaker than Livingston.

[Nivek]

A penetrating guard can help team efficiency if he's efficient himself. Arenas wasn't efficient last season. Wall is a "we'll see." I can construct equally plausible scenarios for "efficient" or "inefficient." I'm hoping he'll be efficient, but rookies often struggle, his weaknesses are shooting and turnovers, and teams haven't started game-planning him yet.

Are you sure Nick is Gil's backup? And, even if he is, on many nights he'll do more harm than good because his only real basketball skill is shooting. (Well, his defense against his man isn't bad. But, he doesn't rebound or pass at all, and his team defense isn't good.)

At SF, I'm with you hoping that Yi can hold down the minutes there. He'll be a defensive liability there, but they may be able to hide him in that funky matchup zone Flip likes to run.

I think the Wiz will improve this season, but I don't see playoffs. That would take roughly a 14-15 game improvement. Getting to .500 means an efficiency differential improvement of about 7 points per 100 possessions from where they were at the end of last season. If I'm right (that their defense is about average), that would mean they'd have to be better on offense by about 5 points per 100 possessions. That's a tall order. Not impossible, but it would be a major achievement to do it.

[pineappleheadindc]

^

Tonight, when I have time, I gotta google history and see what the average W-L improvement is for a team drafting #1. I think John Wall will have a larger than average impact on our team (as compared to most #1s).