A Closer Look at AR and Close Games

[Flames24Rulz]

I saw Bedard reply to someone saying Cowherd was letting Rodgers have it today for his record in close games; you know, the 1-11 record that a good portion of us have blamed McCarthy for.

I posted this on another message board and couldn't determine whether or not to put this in the leadup thread or the postgame thread. So I figued I'd make a new thread and show how Rodgers has put us in a position to win almost all of the close games in that stretch.

2008

L 24-27 VS Atlanta - 25/37, 313 yards, 3 TD/1 INT. Played with a separated shoulder, suffered the week before.

L 16-19 in OT @ Tennessee (Titans went to 8-0) - 22/41, 314 yards, TD/INT. Packers never got the ball in OT.

L 27-28 @ Minnesota - 15/26, 142 yards. Not a good game by any stretch, but he led us down the field with a chance to win and Crosby banged a 52 yard FG off the upright on the final drive of the game.

L 31-35 VS Carolina - 29/45, 298 yards, 3 TD/1 INT. Decided to kick an 18 yard FG on 4th and goal at the 1 instead of going for it late. Defense proceeded to give up a TD in two plays to end the game.

L 21-24 VS Houston - 19/30, 295 yards, 2 TD/1 INT. Rodgers led a game-tying drive but Houston kicked a game-winning FG as time expired.

L 16-20 @ Jacksonville - 20/32, 278 yards, 1 TD/1 INT. I'll put this on Rodgers because he had a chance to win the game and threw a pick on the final drive of the game. Defense gave up a late TD after taking the lead with around 5:30 left in the game, though.

L 17-20 in OT @ Chicago - 24/39, 260 yards, 2 TD/1 INT. Rodgers led the offense down the field with a chance to win at the end of regulation, but Crosby's FG was blocked. Bears won the coin toss and we never got the ball in OT.

2009

L 36-37 @ Pittsburgh - 26/48, 383 yards, 3 TD/0 INT, also a rushing TD. Pittsburgh gets a TD on the final play of the game on a drive where the Steelers went 3/3 on 4th down conversions.

2010

L 17-20 @ Chicago - 34/45, 316 yards, 1 TD/1 INT (on a hail mary at the end of the half), also a rushing TD. A costly fumble by James Jones on the final offensive drive of the game ends up being the deciding factor.

W 28-26 VS Detroit - 12/17, 181 yards, 3 TD/2 INT. We could've put this game away midway through the 3rd but a jump ball INT at the Detroit 10 kept the Lions in the game. Packers had to hold on to beat a winless Lions squad.

L 13-16 @ Washington in OT - 27/46, 293 yards, 1 TD/1 INT. Rodgers leads the offense down the field with a chance to win the game at the end of regulation, but Crosby misses the game-winner. An interception in OT on a helmet-to-helmet hit costs the Packers the game.

L 20-23 VS Miami in OT - 18/33, 313 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, also a rushing TD. Great drive to end regulation, resulting in an extra frame. Bad field position and a three and out leads to another OT loss.

Rodgers has given us chances to win almost all of those games. It's not the QB play for why we're 1-11 in those 12 games. Keep guessing as to what the problem is for this team.

[Ayt]

I blame Jarrett Bush.

[RiotPunch]

It is the combination of bad play calling, some poor audibles and lack of killer instinct from both our HC and our QB. I think Aaron has the potential to be a top 3 QB in this league, and he is almost there already, but he needs to learn how to win. He can't take the next step towards stardom and success with MM holding him back, IMO. A guy like Gruden would bring out the best in Aaron, maximize his potential. McCarthy sets him up for failure with predictable play calls.

I give McCarthy a lot of credit for developing Rodgers this far, and Flynn for that matter, but he doesn't have the "stuff" to lead this team, let alone Rodgers, to the promise land. I hope TT can swallow his pride and realize this.

[xTitan]

It is the combination of bad play calling, some poor audibles and lack of killer instinct from both our HC and our QB. I think Aaron has the potential to be a top 3 QB in this league, and he is almost there already, but he needs to learn how to win. He can't take the next step towards stardom and success with MM holding him back, IMO. A guy like Gruden would bring out the best in Aaron, maximize his potential. McCarthy sets him up for failure with predictable play calls.

I give McCarthy a lot of credit for developing Rodgers this far, and Flynn for that matter, but he doesn't have the "stuff" to lead this team, let alone Rodgers, to the promise land. I hope TT can swallow his pride and realize this.

LMAO...so it is the QB and the coach.....interesting, so the holding penalities, the missed blocks, the dropped passes, the horrible field position by a terrible special teams, how about a defense get a TO and put the Packers on the other teams side of the field...no you are right it is all Rodgers and Mccarthy....yup.

[chuckleslove]

That list isn't complete, off the top of my head at the very least missing the 1st game of last season when we beat the Bears 21-15 with a late TD drive where Rodgers I think hit Jennings for the winning score?

What did you define as a close game?

[RiotPunch]

It is the combination of bad play calling, some poor audibles and lack of killer instinct from both our HC and our QB. I think Aaron has the potential to be a top 3 QB in this league, and he is almost there already, but he needs to learn how to win. He can't take the next step towards stardom and success with MM holding him back, IMO. A guy like Gruden would bring out the best in Aaron, maximize his potential. McCarthy sets him up for failure with predictable play calls.

I give McCarthy a lot of credit for developing Rodgers this far, and Flynn for that matter, but he doesn't have the "stuff" to lead this team, let alone Rodgers, to the promise land. I hope TT can swallow his pride and realize this.

LMAO...so it is the QB and the coach.....interesting, so the holding penalities, the missed blocks, the dropped passes, the horrible field position by a terrible special teams, how about a defense get a TO and put the Packers on the other teams side of the field...no you are right it is all Rodgers and Mccarthy....yup.

Obviously MM and Aaron don't get all of the blame, I thought the discussion was about Aaron in late game situations? That's what my post was focused on. You want to discuss? Let's discuss. I happen to agree with a lot that you have been saying on here lately, but going out of your way to be a dick with the LMAO's and the sarcastic prick comments is getting a little old though. But that's how you operate, whatever.

Slocum should be gone as well, you're right. ST play has been horrid. That's also on MM for not firing him by now. Penalties, missed blocking assignments and even dropped passes can be partially put on MM too. Our team is not disciplined. He should have given Bulaga some help on Wake yesterday, and he didn't. That isn't all on Bryan.

Losing those games was a team effort BUT a lot of it can be traced back to MM's lack of coaching ability.

[bucks59]

For better or worse, part of the problem is that critics will always compare Rodgers to his predecessor, who is/was impeccable (sarcasm) in late game/big game situations.

Critics also don't like to put these issues in proper context and only look at the main stat: 1-11. Stats are often manipulated and miss cited.

[paulpressey25]

What did you define as a close game?

I think Jason Wilde yesterday called it within 4 or less points. But I also heard McGinn did a column on it as well using that 4 point margin.

You can look at this two ways:

Is it Rodgers fault we lost all those close games? No. Probably 90% of those losses can be pinned on other things.

Is Rodgers a HOF QB like what we were used to, i.e. a guy who can overcome everything and will his team to the win ala vintage Favre? No.

[Kerb Hohl]

What did you define as a close game?

I think Jason Wilde yesterday called it within 4 or less points. But I also heard McGinn did a column on it as well using that 4 point margin.

You can look at this two ways:

Is it Rodgers fault we lost all those close games? No. Probably 90% of those losses can be pinned on other things.

Is Rodgers a HOF QB like what we were used to, i.e. a guy who can overcome everything and will his team to the win ala vintage Favre? No.

I'm pretty sure there was an article that said in Favre's close games his record wasn't actually that good. Especially in his first few seasons. If I find it I'll pass it along.

That said, Favre did have some unreal wins...but it is like Kobe earlier in his career. He had so many tries and so many amazing ones that we forget all the missed game winning shots.

[dedned]

What did you define as a close game?

I think Jason Wilde yesterday called it within 4 or less points. But I also heard McGinn did a column on it as well using that 4 point margin.

You can look at this two ways:

Is it Rodgers fault we lost all those close games? No. Probably 90% of those losses can be pinned on other things.

Is Rodgers a HOF QB like what we were used to, i.e. a guy who can overcome everything and will his team to the win ala vintage Favre? No.

I'm pretty sure there was an article that said in Favre's close games his record wasn't actually that good. Especially in his first few seasons. If I find it I'll pass it along.
edit: 33-30 .524
edit:33-30 .524

That said, Favre did have some unreal wins...but it is like Kobe earlier in his career. He had so many tries and so many amazing ones that we forget all the missed game winning shots.

think i just read it. favre's was over .500 maybe round .540.

[dedned]

33-30 .524

[an_also]

Can someone look up close game record for Brady? Manning as well

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah that looks about right. I wasn't trying to insult Favre by that, I was just saying he wasn't 40-23 or something.

[Newz]

PP... You keep bringing up the Rodgers vs. Favre thing.

No, Aaron Rodgers is not nearly as good as Favre during his prime. He won three MVP awards in a row and was the best player in the entire league.

Who was saying that Rodgers was that good?

[MickeyDavis]

It's logical to think that what ails the Green Bay Packers offense is quarterback Aaron Rodgers' inability to finish games.

He is 0-5 in overtime games and 1-11 in games that have been decided by four points or fewer in his 39 starts, including 0-2 and 1-3, respectively, this season. His only playoff appearance ended with his fumble being returned for a touchdown in overtime.

He has led the offense on a number of drives to tie the score late - as he did against Miami on Sunday - has put the team in position for a game-winning field goal three times (all misses) and won one game with a touchdown pass in the final 2 minutes.

But finding a way to pull out a victory in a close game regardless of the circumstances has not been Rodgers' calling card.

As he assessed Monday what has become a season on the brink, coach Mike McCarthy rejected the notion that the Packers' inability to win two straight overtime games this season as well as other tight affairs falls completely on the shoulders of his quarterback.

"Our timing is not where it needs to be, and that is everything," McCarthy said a day after falling to 3-3 with a 23-20 loss to Miami in overtime. "I am talking about the protection, the footwork of the quarterback, the route running. When we do it, we make it look very easy, and when we don't, we have moments like we did yesterday."

The Packers' offense looked like this against Miami:

• Ten points in the first quarter, including an 86-yard connection between Rodgers and receiver Greg Jennings.

• No points in a second quarter in which Rodgers was sacked twice and faced three third downs of 13 or more yards.

• No points in a third quarter in which Rodgers was intercepted and sacked.

• Ten points in the fourth quarter, including drives of 66 yards on 12 plays for a field goal and 69 yards on 12 plays for a touchdown, the latter culminating in a gutsy freelance run by Rodgers for a 1-yard touchdown on fourth and goal.

• No points in an overtime period in which Rodgers had to throw one pass away under pressure and was sacked on the next.

"It's hard to figure why it is the way it is," said wide receivers coach Jimmy Robinson. "We're just not totally in sync here and it seems like we would be at this point. We're six games into the season and it seems like routes have to be a little sharper, timing is a little bit off, protection has to be a little bit better.

"We felt in training camp we were moving forward with our passing game and for some reason it just hasn't happened to us well enough. We have to fine-tune the little things."

There's no question that the loss of tight end Jermichael Finley for the season has taken away a safety blanket for Rodgers, who always knew he could throw the ball in tight coverage and Finley would find a way to get it. He might not be as confident to do the same with his receivers because they haven't shown that ability, dropping a shocking 10 balls in two games.

But the offense has produced 786 yards in the two overtime losses, which is a sign it is having little trouble moving the ball between the red zones. The worrisome part is scoring just 33 points in roughly nine quarters of play despite those big yardage numbers.

As quarterback-centric as his offense is, McCarthy won't pin the blame on Rodgers, whose 89.7 passer rating ranks 14th in the NFL.

"It is going to either be real good or real bad," McCarthy said of people's perception of the quarterback. "That is just the nature of the quarterback position in the National Football League, and even more so our offensive system is built around making the quarterback successful.

"He is a very accountable young man and he'll continue to work."

McCarthy said the lack of success at the end of games is something he and his coaches plan on spending more time on, although he said with all the injuries the team has, including the concussion that kept Rodgers out until Thursday, affected the way he could prepare for Miami.

The offense allowed five sacks and only one of them came down to essentially one guy beating another. Rodgers appeared to hold the ball too long on two of them, there was a mix-up in protection on another and there was a blown assignment on the final one in overtime.

"You have five sacks, those are big plays in the game," McCarthy said. "It changes field position, it changes momentum, there are a lot of things that come out of that, and we have done a good job up until the last two weeks."

Perhaps most maddening to the coaches was the overtime possession that followed the long touchdown drive to tie it.

On first down, if tight end Tom Crabtree got more than just a piece of linebacker Channing Crowder, running back Brandon Jackson had a wide-open lane into the secondary for what would have been at least a 20-yard gain. On second down, Rodgers bailed out of the pocket despite having plenty of time and threw the ball away.

On third down, the line blew a stunt and Rodgers was sacked.

"We put a great drive together (at the end of regulation), then we get the inconsistency coming back with the next drive and go three and out," offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said. "Go figure. We've got momentum, we've got the ball, we have a chance to win a game at home. You'd think you could execute better than that. We didn't."

[LUKE23]

Favre didn't win a MVP until his 4th, 5th, and 6th full seasons, Rodgers is currently 2.4 years in roughly as a full-time starter. Favre also had a much better OL than Rodgers currently does, although Rodgers probably has more offensive weapons.

As far as the close games, in the 6-10 season, I remember these conversations very clearly from the TT haters/Favre lovers after Favre left. They consistently blamed it on Rodgers. What was ignored was that almost every single one of those games we lost, Rodgers put the Packers up or tied with about 4 minutes or less to go, then the D or Special Teams had a massive screw up that cost us the game. Go check the game logs there, it was almost every week.

All in all, I agree Rodgers hasn't been uber clutch yet, but it's nowhere near as bad as the 1-11 record suggests. That should probably be around 6-6 or 7-5.

So far this season, it has been on him (in addition to last years playoff game). So it's sort of a TBD there. But he's not as far along as Favre in terms of career progression when Favre was winning his MVP's.

[Flames24Rulz]

What did you define as a close game?

I think Jason Wilde yesterday called it within 4 or less points. But I also heard McGinn did a column on it as well using that 4 point margin.

You can look at this two ways:

Is it Rodgers fault we lost all those close games? No. Probably 90% of those losses can be pinned on other things.

Is Rodgers a HOF QB like what we were used to, i.e. a guy who can overcome everything and will his team to the win ala vintage Favre? No.

Correct. I used the 12 games that had a margin of victory/defeat by 4 points or less.

Even in the Jacksonville game, Rodgers led us down the field to take the lead with under 6 minutes to play. He did throw a pick to end the game, but he still put us in position to win that game if we could get a single stop on defense. Of course, we didn't.

I'm not trying to say the guy is out-of-this-world amazing, but his 1-11 record in those games is one of the more ridiculous stats that I've seen. It almost defies all logic as to how his record is that bad, considering how he's played in those 12 games.

[LUKE23]

I'm not trying to say the guy is out-of-this-world amazing, but his 1-11 record in those games is one of the more ridiculous stats that I've seen. It almost defies all logic as to how his record is that bad, considering how he's played in those 12 games.

To me, QB's should be judged individually on "close game" stats based on games that they had the ball where one score wins or ties the game, with a reasonable amount of time (say 2-3 minutes) to put a drive together.

What happened that 6-10 year is Packers would have the ball with 6 or so minutes left, come down and score, and then the D would give up a score and we'd have no time to answer. There isn't much a QB can do about that.

[MickeyDavis]

We can analyze numbers all we want. The bottom line is Rodgers just hasn't been all that good at crunch time.

[chuckleslove]

We can analyze numbers all we want. The bottom line is the defense has let Rodgers down in crunch time many times.

Fixed