A Closer Look at AR and Close Games

[Max Green]

The defense isn't the one overthrowing guys and tossing up picks during the "game winning" drive.

[Newz]

We can analyze numbers all we want. The bottom line is Rodgers just hasn't been all that good at crunch time.

I don't think this team in general has been very clutch. Everyone from the defense, to the o-line, to the WRs, to the RBs...

But when you are the QB you are going to get most of the attention. I agree Rodgers hasn't proven to be a clutch player yet.

Hopefully that changes.

[xTitan]

The defense isn't the one overthrowing guys and tossing up picks during the "game winning" drive.

LOL...you make me laugh

[bucks59]

The defense isn't the one overthrowing guys and tossing up picks during the "game winning" drive.

Are you referring to the Vikings - Jets game when Favre overthrew Harvin and then threw a interception that the Jets returned for a touchdown? I don't understand your Favre hate, he just plays like a kid out there! So much fun to watch!

[Scoops]

I'm not trying to say the guy is out-of-this-world amazing, but his 1-11 record in those games is one of the more ridiculous stats that I've seen. It almost defies all logic as to how his record is that bad, considering how he's played in those 12 games.

What happened that 6-10 year is Packers would have the ball with 6 or so minutes left, come down and score, and then the D would give up a score and we'd have no time to answer. There isn't much a QB can do about that.

Actually of the games listed in the OP...

Down 3 against Atlanta AR threw a pick with about 4 minutes left. Each team traded TDs after that.

Against Tennesse we drove down, kicked a FG to tie the game with 6 minutes left. After a 3 and out we got the ball back with 4 minutes left and the drive stalled at midfield.

Against Minny I think that was the game where MM settled for the 50 yarder.

Against Houton we started with the ball at their 35 with 3 minutes left, tied. Got down to their 25 and then a holding call and a sack pushed us out of FG range.

Against Jacksonville down 4, we only had 2 minutes to work with. Started at the 16 thanks to a wonderful kick return.

Blocked FG with 25 seconds left against Chicago.

The defense gave up some plays but there's no way you can say the offense didn't have chances that year. It was the special teams letting them down, it was MM boneheaded decisions, it was the offense just failing to put a drive together.

When we're losing this many close games, I don't think you can blame one player. It has to start with the coach imo. Especially when the coach is the one calling the plays.

[Max Green]

The defense isn't the one overthrowing guys and tossing up picks during the "game winning" drive.

LOL...you make me laugh

The truth is funny isn't it?

[Max Green]

The defense isn't the one overthrowing guys and tossing up picks during the "game winning" drive.

Are you referring to the Vikings - Jets game when Favre overthrew Harvin and then threw a interception that the Jets returned for a touchdown? I don't understand your Favre hate, he just plays like a kid out there! So much fun to watch!

No, i'm referring to the Packers - Redskins game when Rodgers threw Jennings a terrible pass that was intercepted that led to the Skins game winning field goal.

[bucks59]

The defense isn't the one overthrowing guys and tossing up picks during the "game winning" drive.

Are you referring to the Vikings - Jets game when Favre overthrew Harvin and then threw a interception that the Jets returned for a touchdown? I don't understand your Favre hate, he just plays like a kid out there! So much fun to watch!

No, i'm referring to the Packers - Redskins game when Rodgers threw Jennings a terrible pass that was intercepted that led to the Skins game winning field goal.

You sure that was the game you were referring to? You said "overthrowing ... AND tossing up picks" (emphasis added). That Rodgers pass was more of an underthrow and it was only one action. I really think you meant that Vikings - Jets game, since Favre was both "overthrowing guys" "and tossing up picks."

[rilamann]

Rodgers is a talented QB but his problem is that he seems too afraid to make a mistake/look bad in crunch time.

He needs to get over that in a hurry.

That's why he plays so tentative and takes sacks and doesn't take any chances to make the big play (or big mistake) when the game is on line.

I'd rather a guy take a chance to make the big play even though he might make a mistake than play tentative.

You're never going to make the big plays and win the close games playing tentative.

Play to win pretty boy.

[Max Green]

You sure that was the game you were referring to? You said "overthrowing ... AND tossing up picks" (emphasis added). That Rodgers pass was more of an underthrow and it was only one action. I really think you meant that Vikings - Jets game, since Favre was both "overthrowing guys" "and tossing up picks."

When I said "overthrowing guys and tossing up picks" I wasn't just referring to one game. There are a couple of games where he has done one or both.

[bucks59]

You sure that was the game you were referring to? You said "overthrowing ... AND tossing up picks" (emphasis added). That Rodgers pass was more of an underthrow and it was only one action. I really think you meant that Vikings - Jets game, since Favre was both "overthrowing guys" "and tossing up picks."

When I said "overthrowing guys and tossing up picks" I wasn't just referring to one game. There are a couple of games where he has done one or both.

Favre? I agree, he has definitely done that a lot. I am happy that we can agree on things.

[Newz]

One thing I hope Rodgers stops doing... And I really don't know if this is a play calling thing or just something he likes to do... I really hope he stops trying those **** back shoulder throws all of the time. We have to try those throws more than any other team in the NFL.

What happened to the basic plays of this offense? The quick hitting slants, the go routes, the simple out routes, the screen passes... I don't want to hear about how defenses 'play us for the slant' either. Last year we had this same problem, then in the second half we started to run the offense with the quick hitting passing game where it focused on YAC and it started to click again.

[Flames24Rulz]

What happened to the basic plays of this offense? The quick hitting slants, the go routes, the simple out routes, the screen passes... I don't want to hear about how defenses 'play us for the slant' either. Last year we had this same problem, then in the second half we started to run the offense with the quick hitting passing game where it focused on YAC and it started to click again.

I made a mention of that in the postgame thread. Seems like we're doing the same damn thing we did last year to this point where we're getting away from the WCO and doing seven-step drops, for some crazy reason.

[xTitan]

Rodgers is a talented QB but his problem is that he seems too afraid to make a mistake/look bad in crunch time.

He needs to get over that in a hurry.

That's why he plays so tentative and takes sacks and doesn't take any chances to make the big play (or big mistake) when the game is on line.

I'd rather a guy take a chance to make the big play even though he might make a mistake than play tentative.

You're never going to make the big plays and win the close games playing tentative.

Play to win pretty boy.

I'll take Rodgers over your guy anyday.....I do not realize how anyone can watch a game and throw all the blame at Rodgers when you have a horribly undisciplined team that continues make terrible mental mistakes as well as physical mistakes at the end of games without any repercussion...I love how the Favre luvin d-bags have such short memories.....if Holmgren was coaching this team with the discilpline and percision he brought to the table they would be winning these games....funny how you rarely see teams like New England and the Colts pissing away games at the end with penalites and mistakes...indisciplined teams lose..period.

[El Duderino]

Rodgers is a talented QB but his problem is that he seems too afraid to make a mistake/look bad in crunch time.

He needs to get over that in a hurry.

That's why he plays so tentative and takes sacks and doesn't take any chances to make the big play (or big mistake) when the game is on line.

I'd rather a guy take a chance to make the big play even though he might make a mistake than play tentative.

You're never going to make the big plays and win the close games playing tentative.

Play to win pretty boy.

I'll take Rodgers over your guy anyday.....I do not realize how anyone can watch a game and throw all the blame at Rodgers when you have a horribly undisciplined team that continues make terrible mental mistakes as well as physical mistakes at the end of games without any repercussion...I love how the Favre luvin d-bags have such short memories.....if Holmgren was coaching this team with the discilpline and percision he brought to the table they would be winning these games....funny how you rarely see teams like New England and the Colts pissing away games at the end with penalites and mistakes...indisciplined teams lose..period.

I agree in general to what you're saying and that Rodgers isn't close to the main reason for the 1-11 record in these close games. That said, Aaron isn't without any fault. That was a terrible pass he threw in OT vs Washington which basically gift wrapped a game winning FG. He wasn't terrible on Sunday vs Miami, but he didn't play like a top 5-7 quarterback. Rodgers did miss a wide open Jennings for a game winning TD vs Arizona the play before the hit and fumble that ended the season last year. Without trying to remember what went down exactly in all the other 10 close losses, Rodgers i'm sure bears at least some responsibility in a few of the losses.

Either way though, some in the media and some Packer fans definitely are laying way to much of the blame on Aaron for this 1-11 record in close games. Besides simply the close games that Crosby failed to close out and the ones that the defense choked away after Rodgers either tied or gave the Packers the lead, the media and fans also don't have access to the coaching tape.

On TV we rarely are able to see what's happening downfield with all the receivers in any given route. So if say Rodgers had a bit of time before getting sacked, we can't see if Aaron missed an open receiver or if they were all covered. We can't see if late in a close game if on 3rd down Rodgers threw an incomplete pass to a guy covered well, but another receiver was open elsewhere. We don't know if Rodgers called an audible or two late in a close game that worked out or backfired.

Anyone that ever goes to football games in person quickly realizes just how much the cameras on TV miss because almost all the focus is on the QB and lines until a pass is thrown or a sack happens. Rodgers IMO seemed to have some happy feet in the pocket a few times Sunday, but then again, by my watching the game on TV i couldn't see what was going on downfield to know if potential opportunities were missed or if guys were mostly covered. A quarterback no matter how good needs someone to be open to make a big play late in a close game and in most cases, we as fans just don't get to see all of what the QB is seeing downfield.

[xTitan]

I will tell you where Rodgers IS definitely failing, he needs to get in the face some of these guys who are making dumb penalities, dropping passes, and getting dominated at the line.....Rodgers appears to lack the ability to do this, I say appears because I had no idea how hard Peyton Manning rode his team mates on the sideline, Manning is a virtual dictator and has no problem calling out team mates on the field....Rodgers needs to get a littel angry (if he hasn't already) and let the stiffs around him know mistakes won't be tolerated.....especially if your soft ass coach doesn't seem to mind them. Rodgers is entrenched now, time to tell everyone what's what.


I will tell you what really pisses me of and it should Rodgers, when one of those soft o-lineman get beat, Rodgers takes a big hit, and they reah out to help him up....slap away there damn hand and tell them not to get their asses beat AGAIN.

[Icness]

From this week's upcoming Football Meteorology:

Elite QBs turn their games up a notch when the game is on the line, but Rodgers goes in the opposite direction. His 4th quarter QB rating is just 69.8, or over 40 points lower than the other 3 quarters. He has thrown all seven of his INTs while the game margin was within 6 points one way or the other, and his yards per attempt in those situations are nearly two yards lower as well.

That's just this season. I went back and looked at 2009 and his QB rating in the 4Q was 94.2 as opposed to an overall of 103.2, and that's actually fairly normal compared to other top QBs because they tend to throw more shorter passes but also throw the ball away more for clock mgt. or risk aversion. Brees and Schaub have almost the exact same % decline. That's what has always made Tom Brady exceptional, his 4Q QB rating is his best quarter which is just freakish. The only other real notable QB that pulled that off was Jim Kelly.

I don't have the "close margin" splits for past seasons, only the quarters. And it doesn't break down when those situations are in games; it could be 0-0 in the 1Q, it could be 31-28 with 1 minute to go.

[an_also]

From this week's upcoming Football Meteorology:

Elite QBs turn their games up a notch when the game is on the line, but Rodgers goes in the opposite direction. His 4th quarter QB rating is just 69.8, or over 40 points lower than the other 3 quarters. He has thrown all seven of his INTs while the game margin was within 6 points one way or the other, and his yards per attempt in those situations are nearly two yards lower as well.

That's just this season. I went back and looked at 2009 and his QB rating in the 4Q was 94.2 as opposed to an overall of 103.2, and that's actually fairly normal compared to other top QBs because they tend to throw more shorter passes but also throw the ball away more for clock mgt. or risk aversion. Brees and Schaub have almost the exact same % decline. That's what has always made Tom Brady exceptional, his 4Q QB rating is his best quarter which is just freakish. The only other real notable QB that pulled that off was Jim Kelly.

I don't have the "close margin" splits for past seasons, only the quarters. And it doesn't break down when those situations are in games; it could be 0-0 in the 1Q, it could be 31-28 with 1 minute to go.

Do you have Tom Brady's breakdown number? I would love to see them.

[BucksRuleAll22]

9/10 close games are MMs fault or some idiot on the Packers who gives up a big play drops a pass or fumbles. Rodgers always leads the team down in close games to score and take the lead and the defense right away gives a TD back to lose. How many times has a scrub given up a big play in the end or stupid Woodson does his classic holding which Woodson gets called for 3-4 holds a game and gives a TD every game from a stupid hold alone.

How many times have we watch MM do some stupid bone head playcall. Rodgers is a stud and he is 0% the problem here. Crap GM and coach. Maybe if Rodgers in his career had a decent 0-line he wouldnt have to run for his life almost every game. If TT wasn't a garbage GM maybe he would of fixed the O-line after all these years.

[askdavescat]

My feeling is that this is largely one of those 'lies, damn lies, and statistics...' scenarios. That said, I am starting to lose patience with Rodgers as well. I believe a lot of his/GB's problems have been that he refuses to go through his progressions, and is looking to throw deep virtually every time he drops back.

In 2007, Favre/McCarthy knew that GB had a sub-par offensive line, and began going to all those slants because ( I believe ) they both realized that's all they had time for. Rodgers has been around long enough, and he should realize that he can't sit back there forever and wait for the deep routes to open up every time. He's trying to wait for the deep route to come open, and then work his way back towards the shorter stuff if none of the long routes open up. That just can't work, because GB's OL can't protect that long, and by the time he works back to them, the shorter routes are covered. Additionally, in the last couple games, he's been getting jittery feet and running into sacks when his protection shouldn't have been a problem.

Rodgers is a smart guy, and he should be able to figure this out. My fear though, is that's he's just as arrogant/over-confident as McCarthy and Thompson are in their own right, and that he will refuse to conform. If he refuses to adjust his game, I'm growing very nervous that he's not going to become a Hall of Fame QB, but the next Rob Johnson.