Predict the Wizards record in 2010-2011

[Scabs304]

41 wins. Was waffling between 43 and 39 decided to go in the middle.

[hands11]

I'll take 44 since it is open an in my range.

Oh course injury will play a big roll but we are young which would lend itself to less injuries and quicker healing. Gil has had plenty of time off to get his knee right and we have enough players that we don't have to play three player 45-48 minutes a game. Given any on injury, I can see how we move the pieces around to cover for it for a few games.

The big problem is still deep at center but with Wall, Gil, Howard, Dray, Yi, Kirk up front, we don't need a star scoring center as much. So then I see Dray, Yi, McGee, Armstrong with over time Seraphin, Hamady and spot duty of Booker and I think we may have enough given our other players.

I can still see Wall, Gil, Howard and Dray cranking it up and this team gelling where we win more than 44 but you have to pick a number so 44

[no D in Hibachi]

Even when I pick a crappy record (38 is still crappy!) I still always find myself on the upper-half of the predictions. Also, I've overstated the Wiz record EVERY YEAR that I've voted, so as a barometer of sorts, I suggest everyone pick lower than me.

Someone actually measured it out last year or the year before that, averaging up the previous year's predictions versus reality, and the board as a whole always overshoots us. Almost makes me want to drop down to something like 30 wins.

For a while, the board consistently predicted 2 more wins more than what actually happened. That trend fell apart during the 2008/09 season when the team collapsed, fired their coach and ended up picking 5th in the lottery. That team won 15 to 20 fewer games than expected.

Actually it was 19 games fewer than expected the past two seasons.

[Halcyon]

I'm going with 33 wins.

[Induveca]

I'm going with 39 wins

[GhostsOfGil]

wat does the winner get?

[JWizmentality]

I was originally going with 40, but I had a dream last night....so I say 47.

[Benjammin]

I was originally going with 40, but I had a dream last night....so I say 47.

Must have been some dream...

[closg00]

I was originally going with 40, but I had a dream last night....so I say 47.

Are we getting Melo?

[WizStorm]

Sunday Morning Update:
(Just a little over 4 Days to get your picks locked in)

23 wins: Visigoth
24 wins:
25 wins;
26 wins:
27 wins:
28 wins: willbcocks
29 wins: noDinhibachi
30 wins: Pollinator
31 wins: Consiglieri81, doclinkin
32 wins: Gesa2, dandridge10, closg00
33 wins: Hooplotta, Floydfan29, wiz99, Nigel Tufnel, fishercob, Halcyon
34 wins: KevinFCheng, dangermouse, sfam, tikunit, KiNgSbOi, BigA, Verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan
35 wins: AnotherFinn, REDardWIZskin, Zonkerbl
36 wins: MJG, nate33, Dat2U
37 wins: darealhibachi, zaRdsAndZeRos, CCJ, TheGreatWall, eitanr, montestewart
38 wins: DallasShalDune
39 wins: YiOF, Induveca
40 wins: Ruzious, Pine, The Fax, Gil_Kills, sportsshooteral
41 wins: WizStorm, Scabs304
42 wins: JonathanJoseph
43 wins: Wizards2Lottery
44 wins: hands11
45 wins: Krizko Zero
46 wins: Plotintelli
47 wins: JWizmentality
48 wins:
49 wins:
50 wins: Pancakes

[doclinkin]

Flipflopped to put the top wins at the top:

50 wins: Pancakes
49 wins:
48 wins:
47 wins: JWizmentality
46 wins: Plotintelli42 wins: JonathanJoseph
45 wins: Krizko Zero
44 wins: hands11
43 wins: Wizards2Lottery
41 wins: WizStorm, Scabs304
40 wins: Ruzious, Pine, The Fax, Gil_Kills, sportsshooteral
39 wins: YiOF, Induveca
38 wins: DallasShalDune
37 wins: darealhibachi, zaRdsAndZeRos, CCJ, TheGreatWall, eitanr, montestewart
36 wins: MJG, nate33, Dat2U
35 wins: AnotherFinn, REDardWIZskin, Zonkerbl
34 wins: KevinFCheng, dangermouse, sfam, tikunit, KiNgSbOi, BigA, Verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan
33 wins: Hooplotta, Floydfan29, wiz99, Nigel Tufnel, fishercob, Halcyon
32 wins: Gesa2, dandridge10, closg00
31 wins: Consiglieri81, doclinkin
30 wins: Pollinator
29 wins: noDinhibachi
28 wins: willbcocks
27 wins:
26 wins:
25 wins:
24 wins:
23 wins: Visigoth

[wizfan1984]

Put me down for 39 wins.

[doclinkin]

50 wins: Pancakes
49 wins:
48 wins:
47 wins: JWizmentality
46 wins: Plotintelli42 wins: JonathanJoseph
45 wins: Krizko Zero
44 wins: hands11
43 wins: Wizards2Lottery
41 wins: WizStorm, Scabs304
40 wins: Ruzious, Pine, The Fax, Gil_Kills, sportsshooteral
39 wins: YiOF, Induveca
38 wins: DallasShalDune
37 wins: darealhibachi, zaRdsAndZeRos, CCJ, TheGreatWall, eitanr, montestewart
36 wins: MJG, nate33, Dat2U
35 wins: AnotherFinn, REDardWIZskin, Zonkerbl
34 wins: KevinFCheng, dangermouse, sfam, tikunit, KiNgSbOi, BigA, Verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan
33 wins: Hooplotta, Floydfan29, wiz99, Nigel Tufnel, fishercob, Halcyon
32 wins: Gesa2, dandridge10, closg00
31 wins: Consiglieri81, doclinkin
30 wins: Pollinator
29 wins: noDinhibachi
28 wins: willbcocks
27 wins:
26 wins:
25 wins:
24 wins:
23 wins: Visigoth

ADD:

13.3 wins: Wages of Wins system (via Arturo Galetti, here)

ALSO

32.5 wins: Vegas odds for over/under bets.


Are there any other system based statistical picks? I'd love to see a season-end comparison.

[doclinkin]

Edit: figure corrected above.

[fugop]

26 wins.

[miller31time]

I'll go with 39 wins and the 8th seed.

[CrankyTodd]

I'm in for 38

[bgroban]

Put me down for 36.

[JAR69]

37 wins, please. 9th in the conference. With my track record, that is guaranteed to be wrong.

[Severn Hoos]

I'll go with 35 wins. Biggest issues are depth and experience. I think the first team will be better than their opponents in a majority of their games, but will have a hard time closing games.

Random prediction: The Wiz will be leading at the half in more than 50% of their games.

Other predictions: Gil averages 20 points and is not traded. Wall averages 8 assists. Blatche around 15 & 8, which will be viewed as a disappointment. Josh Howard emerges as the "MVP" - in the sense that he is the difference-maker. When he's on (and healthy), the Wiz win more often than not, but when he's out, the team really struggles. Minor mid-season trade involving Young and/or Thornton.