2010-11 ATL Hawks Prediction Thread

[ATL DirtyBird]

I havent seen a thread like this so I thought I might cook one up. Lets use this to state what we think the record of our Hawks will be. Also bold predictions for stats or whatever.

45-37. 5th in the East.
Drew doesnt solve offensive or defensive woes.
My man crush for Horford develops further.
Mike Bibbys corpse is our starter for only 10 games.
Josh Smith continues to be the player we love to hate.
Jordan Crawford makes a nice impact.
Marvin Williams continues to tease us.
JJ puts up JJ stats but fails to earn contract.
Not sure anyone outside of JJ makes All-Star team.
Jason Collins sets modern day record of quickest foul out in 2 minutes against the Magic.

What you guys got...?

[parson]

55-27, 3rd in the East.
Drew's offense makes Joe a superstar, Horford a budding star and makes Smoove pull out his hair ... until January, when he discovers driving as a major part of his game.
Bibby ends up playing 20 minutes a game and thrives as a super-sub.
Teague produces little personally but really speeds up the game, where our efficient offense blossoms and our defense turns mistakes into fast breaks.
Jo. Crawford looks great as a backup SG and teases us as a PG, finishing the season as mainly just a tease.
Jamal Crawford plays for his life, ball-hogging it a bit but looking good in the process.
Marvelous explodes marvelously for one game and then .... that's the $64,000 question, isn't it?
Zaza greatly improves with the new sets but the rest of the bench frontcourt KILLS us each game.

And the Magic beat us by 50 one game.

[azuresou1]

51-31, 3rd in the East behind Miami, Orlando. My predictions by position:

- Bibby plays better than anticipated, but sees Teague cut into his minutes heavily. He plays a veteran leader role a la Derek Fisher, and only plays ~15 minutes a game, but plays in crunch time due to making everyone else so much better. He hits a buzzer beater. Teague improves our defense and pace greatly, but can't produce a smooth offense yet, so he sits during crunch time unless he has been hot.
- Joe Johnson will actually be far better than last year. His counting stats will not drop greatly, he will still be the first option in crunch time even in the motion offense, and his efficiency will skyrocket. He breaks 20 PER for the first time in his career.
- Jamal Crawford will produce at a high level for a month and a half, and then get traded for parts that will not contribute immediately. Best of luck to him, classy guy. Jordan Crawford will get the backup SG role and play well, but not amazingly so. He will however have a game where he goes off for 40 points.
- Marvin has a major bounceback season, averages a 17/8 on great shooting while playing exceptional defense. Gets brought up as a MIP candidate, but does not win.
- Josh struggles with the offense, as he gets so many open shots on the outside that teams willingly give up, and he keeps falling for the bait time after time. It gets to the point that Larry Drew will force Josh to come off the bench. Josh eventually gets it and is restored to his starting spot, but it's an ugly month and a half... and he'll still take the bad shots in the playoffs. Due to his benching, he fails to make the ASG yet again.
- Al will play very well, but won't hit the level that everyone seems to expect of him, which is a 20/10 guy. He just doesn't have the arsenal. That said, he'll be a 17/12 guy who is very efficient while playing great defense. He once again makes the ASG.
- Zaza continues to be Zaza and set hard illegal screens and miss easy putbacks off offensive rebounds that we otherwise never would have gotten.

I really, really hope I'm wrong on Josh. I think I'll be spot on with Marvelous.

[ATL DirtyBird]

azure, those were good. Bold yet good. Hope your wrong on Josh as well. Hope your right on Al and Marv though.

[killbuckner]

47-35. First round exit in the playoffs.

The offense takes a big step back and turnovers are a constant issue all season. People blame Woodson for this.

Josh Smith starts shooting more from the outside again as he gets the ball on the outside in the motion offense and just can't help himself. The Hawks crowd starts openly booing everytime he gets the ball outside- instead of him taking the hint he tries to prove everyone wrong. He wins at least 1 game this season by nailing a long outside jumper and in the postgame press conference he talks about how no one believes in him.

Bibby starts over Teague as the offense bogs down when Teague is in the game as teams are content to pack the middle and let the Hawks shoot long jumpshots. Teague looks good in garbage time of some games which causes many people here to still call for him to be the starter. Woodson is blamed for Teague's issues.

Jamal Crawford takes a big step back this season yet continues to complain he hasn't gotten extended even as his numbers regress. He is traded at some point in the season for a veteran PG. Chauncey Billups is traded for expiring contracts plus a pick but the ASG are not willing to pay the tax to bring Billups in.

Marvin reverses the slip he had last season and has something pretty similar to 2 seasons ago. Drew occasionally flirts with a small lineup where Marvin plays some PF. Marvin's reputation finally changes to the point where he is seen as an important roleplayer. Some people still act like he sucks because he isn't better than Chris Paul.

Al Horford takes a lot more long jumpshots this season so he takes a step forward on points per game but his percentages take a step back. He does make the allstar game again this season but people still complain that the Hawks need a center. Horford does not sign an extension before the season starts.

[theatlfan]

kb, lol, I was going to write something similar but I couldn't make it funny on top of sad. Kudos.

[azuresou1]

I can't see Crawford getting traded for a PG. If anything he gets traded for a backup SF like Dunleavy or a veteran bigman like K-Mart.

[killbuckner]

Maurice Evans is an adequate backup Swingman. Zaza is an adequate backup bigman. I don't think that the Hawks have an adequate starting PG on the roster. So to me the Hawks have 2 choices- go without a traditional PG (I'd actually be fine with that though not sure Crawford is the guy for it...) or acquire someone. The piece that makes the most sense to trade is certainly Crawford. HE is expendable, due to take a step back, and could get a quality player. (though because I think he is due to regress I sort of wish the team dealt him when he started making noise about an extension)

The only question to me is whether the ASG will be willing to take on someone who doesn't ahve an expiring contract.

[azuresou1]

Zaza is an adequate backup 5, true. But I'm not sold on Josh Powell as the backup 4, and I like Mo, but I don't believe he can play heavy minutes either, not to mention in a trade for a PG like Billups he'd have to go out as cap filler. As for the PG situation, I'm like, 98% sure the ASG won't trade to have 3 PGs on the roster, especially since Teague is so young and Bibby has a year left on his contract.

And to be honest, I'm fine without having a traditional PG playing heavy minutes anyways. Once everyone gets the motion offense learned, you don't really need a floor general as much, and I'd be fine with slotting either a shooter there (Bibby, Jordan Crawford) or someone to push the pace (Teague).

Plus, a productive PG like Chauncey will cost too many assets, vs. Crawford bringing in assets. A Billups trade with us looks something like Chauncey for Crawford, Etan Thomas + Mo Evans (filler), protected 1st. On the other hand, I'd think we could land something like Dunleavy and 2 2nd rounders for just Chauncey. Given that, I'd rather have Dunleavy.

[killbuckner]

Plus, a productive PG like Chauncey will cost too many assets, vs. Crawford bringing in assets. A Billups trade with us looks something like Chauncey for Crawford, Etan Thomas + Mo Evans (filler), protected 1st.

Chauncey for Crawford straight up works just fine salary wise- no filler is needed. Then its just a matter of putting in enough for the Nuggets to pull the trigger on the deal. The question is whether the ASG would be willing to pay the luxury tax for Chauncey. In the end I don't think they will which is why Billups will end up somewhere else even though I think he would be an incredible fit with this team.

I am not someone who would stop making moves because Teague is on the roster. To me its a bonus if he turns it around but if the team can take a step forward you do it. Bibby having a year on his contract is tough, but to me thats a sunk cost as I don't think anyone would give up an expiring for him. If you end up with 2 PG's other than Bibby that you like then I think you flip him for someone who has the same length contract at another position that some other team would like to be rid of.

[azuresou1]

Ah, I just checked Chauncey's salary and you're right - for some reason I thought he was making more. I mean, don't get me wrong, I'd be fine with Billups if it meant that all we were giving up was Crawford. That said, I'm almost positive Denver will demand a first as well, and to me the upgrade from Crawford to Billups isn't worth it.

I'd rather package Jamal with Josh and try to see if that gets us a S&T'd Melo, or pick up some picks.

[killbuckner]

With Billups I think this is a top 5 team in the league- I'd EASILY give up a first on top of crawford to get him. Seriously... a PG who can play off the ball, kill the 3, and gets to the line. Someone with length who is very good at help defense.

But lots of that is just that I think that Crawford had a career year last season that he is highly unlikely to match with an entirely different offense. Billups is a legitimate allstar PG and the Hawks have easily the worst PG rotation of any "contender". The only problem is that the Hawks would likely have to pay the tax to bring him in and I just don't think they would do it.

[azuresou1]

Crawford can play off the ball and kill the three, and he's quite lengthy as well. Sure, he doesn't get to the line often or provide much help defense... but is that upgrade worth giving up a 1st and the two probable 2nd rounders we'd likely be getting in return for him?

I think we have enough holes in our roster that swapping Crawford for Billups does not help us significantly (maybe 4-5 wins in regular season) while costing us major assets in the future. If I have to pick between Billups and Dunleavy, a 1st, and 2 2nds, I'm taking the latter package every time.

And our PG rotation is not any worse than that of the Lakers. If it is, it's a very minimal margin.

[killbuckner]

Sure, he doesn't get to the line often or provide much help defense... but is that upgrade worth giving up a 1st and the two probable 2nd rounders we'd likely be getting in return for him?

YES. GOD YES. If you want the team to take the next step of course thats worth it. Its a late first round pick. You can buy second round picks. On the court its absolutely ridiculously worth it to get a guy who fills the biggest weakness on this team. I guess I don't see what these major assets in the future you are referring to are- late first rounders and second rounders are small potatoes compared to an allstar PG. I don't think I would have shed any tears if the team had lost their ability to draft Pape Sy.

Probably lots of this is you expecting Crawford to dupicate his production from last season- I just don't see it happening. To me last season was that Woodson put Crawford in position to do exactly what he does best and I don't think that Drew is going to be able to get anywhere near the same level of production out of him. And the rest of it is that you think that Teague can be a 25 MPG rotation player where I don't at all see that. The Hawks have a big gap at guard and I think that this is the Hawk's chance to sell high on Crawford. And part of it that I don't see Dunleavy as a significant upgrade on Evans.

Of course the real problem is that the Hawks would have to pay the luxury tax to bring Billups in and I just don't see that happening.

[azuresou1]

I am not impressed by Chauncey at this point in his career. He is turning 34 this year, making him the oldest starting PG in the league outside of Derek Fisher, and it is starting to show in his game like it did with Bibby 2 years ago. Is he going to run the offense significantly better than the other guard options? Not significantly so.

Late first rounders and early 2nd rounders can be packaged for a higher pick, or packaged with a player. Maybe you don't value a late first that much, but Denver has reportedly refused any Melo trades without a 1st coming back. Why not package Josh, Jamal, and our 1st for a 26 year old S&T'd Melo and see if they bite, instead of offering Jamal and a 1st for a 34 year old Billups?

I think that this system is suited really well for Crawford actually - he can make open jumpers, make the obvious passes, and slash to the basket after catching the ball and making a basic move. I would be very surprised if he didn't improve his efficiency. What reasons do you have to think that Drew won't be able to get the same production out of him?

As for Teague, unless we are trading for a stud in the upswing of his career, I see no reason not to give him a shot. Chauncey isn't getting us over the hump this year, he'd likely be a one-year rental, and in trading for him we'd still have an unknown asset on our bench.

I also don't see how PG play is our biggest issue when the motion/flex offense Drew runs doesn't really deal with 'positions' so much as skillsets, and we get absolutely murdered on the defensive boards.

[killbuckner]

I think that this system is suited really well for Crawford actually - he can make open jumpers, make the obvious passes, and slash to the basket after catching the ball and making a basic move. I would be very surprised if he didn't improve his efficiency. What reasons do you have to think that Drew won't be able to get the same production out of him?

Crawford has a career year under Woodson and you expect him to INCREASE his production this season? Crawford has never done that well in any other stop and any other coach in his career. We'll definitely see on this. I think Crawford is going to take a big step back. When a player has their career year at age 30 its normally a sign that things just fell into place for them- I think completely changing what he had success doing is going to end badly.

If Melo would sign in Atlanta then of course I'd be all for trading for him. But I don't think there is any chance he would sign an extension with the Hawks.

I don't see what path the Hawks have to increase their defensive rebounding measurably other than Josh Smith just putting more effort into it. I don't see where the Hawks are going to get an upgrade on either Smith or Horford on the front line. So of course I see the teams biggest weakness as the big glaring hole at one of the guard spots. Billups is an upgrade on offense, defense, and in basketball intelligence.

I just think Billups is about the perfect guy to fit on this team and I think he is going to age well. Big guards who can shoot tend to be able to play a long time. My fear is that he ends up with the Lakers once his contract is up.

With Teague- I just haven't seen anything to make me thing that he is ready for his role to be expanded other than wishful thinking.

[parson]

Crawford's in his contract year -- seeking the last big contract he'll ever have. He's in the perfect offense for him and has a great comfort level with the rest of the players. To expect him to NOT do well (barring injury) is puzzling to me.

The REAL place to go all "doom and gloom" is our bench.

[HoopsGuru25]

Crawford's in his contract year -- seeking the last big contract he'll ever have. He's in the perfect offense for him and has a great comfort level with the rest of the players. To expect him to NOT do well (barring injury) is puzzling to me.

The REAL place to go all "doom and gloom" is our bench.

I actually think the perfect offense for Crawford was Woody's. Ditto for Flip Murray and T.Lue.

[azuresou1]

Well let's see, Crawford got to play with a bunch of scrub coaches in Chicago, Isiah in NY, and Don Nelson in GS. Woodson is IMO a very mediocre coach, but he looks like John Wooden next to that group. Also, notice that I didn't say he'd increase his PRODUCTION, but his EFFICIENCY.

How is this not a perfect offense for Crawford? He has downscreens set for him meaning he can curl off for easy midrange jumpers. If he gets trapped or doubled there are always easy passes out. When he's taking a man iso the rest of the team is still moving so the defense can't provide help defense as easily. Plus, Crawford is fast enough/has good enough handles that I wouldn't be surprised if this happens quite a few times:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUvMNPHjaWo

[Retrovision]

College student, now in North Carolina. Anybody know how I can possibily continue to watch the games online??