Dr Mufasa wrote:
What if it goes the other way? What if we have a team who's one move away from the playoffs but don't make it cause of overrating a prospect who doesn't turn into anything?
Are we talking "one move away" at midseason, or before the season? If it's the latter, nothing is stopping us...if we're leading the division (not trailing by several games but convinced that trading for youth will lead to a miracle, as was the case this year), make moves. If we're talking about before the season, and operating on hope alone, it's a very silly thing to do.
What if Texas said "It's not worth it to sell out an elite prospect like Justin Smoak on a playoff chase, if it fails it could put us back years" then watched Smoak play like **** down the stretch while the Yankees rolled the AL with Sabathia and Lee
Texas is in an incredibly weak division...their threshold to make the playoffs was only 82 wins. And they made the trade when they were 50-35, and leading the division by 7.5 games. Yes, of course you go for a playoff run if you're virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs.
What if our team is more ready to contend the next 2 years than 2013, because Marcum, Bautista, Wells, Lind are all better than any of our current prospects are likely to be?
And what if they aren't? The likelihood of your scenario being correct is so bloody slim that it really doesn't merit serving as the basis for a plan...for years, we've criticized this team for being short-sighted, and now we unexpectedly finish a couple games above .500 and are angry because they aren't being short-sighted enough.
If AA thinks he can make a contender for the next 2 years and his numbers back it up, he should do it. We aren't far away. If for example we signed Manny and then did Drabek/JPA for Greinke, I think that'd put us in the mix
We are at least 10 wins away. That is a long distance to make up...Manny's only good for perhaps 2-3 wins in a good year (and that's being fairly generous; he's averaging 3 WAR over the last three years, and he wouldn't be taking over for a replacement-level player), and Greinke's good for perhaps 3-4 if all goes well.
So that puts us "in the mix", insofar as missing the playoffs by a few games rather than a lot of games is in the mix. But only if two famously-mercurial players hold up, and that out-of-nowhere 50 HR guy of ours remains at form, and Vernon Wells doesn't have his usual odd-year collapse, and none of our starters get injured, and our bullpen is stellar again.
