LAC/DEN/MIN

[Sofia]

In the last four drafts, the 12 different top 3 picks have gone to 11 different teams.

2010 WAS - PHI - NJN
2009 LAC - MEM - OKC
2008 CHI - MIA - MIN
2007 POR - OKC - ATL

Do you guys understand that talking about getting LeBron and Durant for some future pick in 2012 might be a little irrational? Or is it just too much fun to keep saying it's so valuable, despite the evidence and the system in place?

You're saying the lotto is rigged to share the wealth?

[cliptastical]

If the Clips do give up too much, a solution to that could be taking out Aminu and replacing him in this deal with Rasual Butler's expiring contract who can be traded after December 15th and/or cash considerations. Kaman and Gordon for Melo should be enough to get it done IMO after further consideration.

Been there and suggested that yesterday. I got nowhere. Seems Melo's current value is very overstated here. Its a shame as I think it would greatly benefit both teams.

[cliptastical]

MIN's been bad for several years, so shouldn't that mean their unprotected pick would be valuable, and net a Top 3 potential superstar?

Nope.

In the last four drafts, the 12 different top 3 picks have gone to 11 different teams.

2010 WAS - PHI - NJN
2009 LAC - MEM - OKC
2008 CHI - MIA - MIN
2007 POR - OKC - ATL

Do you guys understand that talking about getting LeBron and Durant for some future pick in 2012 might be a little irrational? Or is it just too much fun to keep saying it's so valuable, despite the evidence and the system in place?

It didn't seem to hurt Oklahoma. They got awesome picks a couple of years apart and now they are being discussed as contenders. Hopefully the Minnesota pick with help the Clippers get the same result.

Top 5 picks are a premium in this superstar driven league.

[jgustav1]

Do you guys understand that talking about getting LeBron and Durant for some future pick in 2012 might be a little irrational? Or is it just too much fun to keep saying it's so valuable, despite the evidence and the system in place?

I don't see many Clipper fans making guarantees about where the pick will end up, but a good percentage of them think it will be in the top 5 in 2012. I have seen a lot of TWolve fans acting like cap space and multiple 1st round picks, like the 3 they had going into the draft, would almost immediately move the team out of the top 10 lottery teams. Sometime these turnarounds take more time than you expect.

[shrink]

Top 5 picks are a premium in this superstar driven league.

Kevin Love was a top five pick.

If you're talking "superstar" then I think you mean "Top Three" pick. They occasionally happen outside the top 2 or 3 picks, but its pretty rare. The three guys you mentioned, Love, Durant, blake Griffin, were #1, #2, and #1.

[shrink]

Do you guys understand that talking about getting LeBron and Durant for some future pick in 2012 might be a little irrational? Or is it just too much fun to keep saying it's so valuable, despite the evidence and the system in place?

I don't see many Clipper fans making guarantees about where the pick will end up, but a good percentage of them think it will be in the top 5 in 2012. I have seen a lot of TWolve fans acting like cap space and multiple 1st round picks, like the 3 they had going into the draft, would almost immediately move the team out of the top 10 lottery teams. Sometime these turnarounds take more time than you expect.

The Wolves have been bad for several years. When we got the #3 pick in 2008, that was the highest pick in franchise history, matching #3 for Christan Laettner.

Just being bad doesn't guarantee anything. In fact, its hard to see the young Wolves not getting better over the next two years. And even if they don't, you'd still have to deal with the lottery.

Like history shows, nobody is consistently bad AND lucky enough to win lotteries continually.

[Sofia]

Wolves do have some nice pieces to build on, but who are they going to surpass in the West right now? Everyone on the outside of the playoffs looking in has some nice building blocks in place, it's going to be hard to start leap frogging away from a top 6 pick.

[shrink]

MIN's been bad for several years, so shouldn't that mean their unprotected pick would be valuable, and net a Top 3 potential superstar?

Nope.

In the last four drafts, the 12 different top 3 picks have gone to 11 different teams.

2010 WAS - PHI - NJN
2009 LAC - MEM - OKC
2008 CHI - MIA - MIN
2007 POR - OKC - ATL

It didn't seem to hurt Oklahoma.

My god. 11 of the 12 teams are different, and your first response is to see OKC.

You''ve got to stop calling other people delusional. You're seeing whatever you want to see.

[AQuintus]

Wolves do have some nice pieces to build on, but who are they going to surpass in the West right now?

Who knows? We're only 1 (or for some teams, 2) games into the season. A lot can happen between now and the end of the season.

Right now is kind of irrelevant now, though, because the pick is top 10 protected this year. If the Wolves don't surpass 10 teams "now" (as in this season), they keep their pick and get another try to do so next year. And as much as things can change between now and the end of the season, way, way more can change between now and the end of next season.

Who knows, maybe the Wolves finally get the number 1 pick, draft Harrison Barnes, and he leads the team into the playoffs as a rookie. Nothing is guaranteed, and that's even more true when discussing the draft lottery.

[shrink]

Wolves do have some nice pieces to build on, but who are they going to surpass in the West right now? Everyone on the outside of the playoffs looking in has some nice building blocks in place, it's going to be hard to start leap frogging away from a top 6 pick.

Ugh. In two years? Let's look at actual evidence:

2008 Top 3 Lottery picks CHI - MIA - MIN .. 2010, CHI and MIA in the play-offs
2007 Top 3 Lottery Picks POR - OKC - ATL .. 2009, POR and ATL in the play-offs

Moreover - even if they are bad, as they have been, its no guarantee a high lottery pick. Predicting MIN will be bad two years from now flies in the face of the history of other bad teams.

Also, predicting that MIN won't pass other teams in the west is just as much hubris. Who picked CHI and MIA to be so bad two years earlier? Were they predicted to be likely to be leapfrogged?

[cliptastical]

Top 5 picks are a premium in this superstar driven league.

Kevin Love was a top five pick.

If you're talking "superstar" then I think you mean "Top Three" pick. They occasionally happen outside the top 2 or 3 picks, but its pretty rare. The three guys you mentioned, Love, Durant, blake Griffin, were #1, #2, and #1.

You are right. Top 3 picks are a premium in this league. The question that needs to be answered is whether the Wolves may end up with a top 3 pick in the presumably loaded 2012 draft.

There are seven West teams that look to miss the playoffs. Memphis, GSW, Houston, New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento and Minnesota (no bias to the Clippers here). Out of these teams, which one are Wolves likely to beat in the next two years?

No offense to Wolves fans, I think your team will be great when Rubio comes over (2012/13?). You just need to be realistic on the value of your 2012 unprotected pick. It is like gold covered in diamonds to a playoff caliber team with zero chance at winning the lottery.

[cliptastical]

My god. 11 of the 12 teams are different, and your first response is to see OKC.

You''ve got to stop calling other people delusional. You're seeing whatever you want to see.

Fair enough. Which West coast team do you see at the bottom of the West in 2011 and 2012?

[shrink]

My god. 11 of the 12 teams are different, and your first response is to see OKC.

You''ve got to stop calling other people delusional. You're seeing whatever you want to see.

Fair enough. Which West coast team do you see at the bottom of the West in 2011 and 2012?

Again - who knows? Nobody would have said MIA would have been at the bottom of the East in 2008.

I think pretending like you know MIN won't pass teams (and further, pretending that means the pick means a "superstar") is just seeing what you want to see.

[Sofia]

Wolves do have some nice pieces to build on, but who are they going to surpass in the West right now? Everyone on the outside of the playoffs looking in has some nice building blocks in place, it's going to be hard to start leap frogging away from a top 6 pick.

Ugh. In two years? Let's look at actual evidence:

2008 Top 3 Lottery picks CHI - MIA - MIN .. 2010, CHI and MIA in the play-offs
2007 Top 3 Lottery Picks POR - OKC - ATL .. 2009, POR and ATL in the play-offs

Moreover - even if they are bad, as they have been, its no guarantee a high lottery pick. Predicting MIN will be bad two years from now flies in the face of the history of other bad teams.

Also, predicting that MIN won't pass other teams in the west is just as much hubris. Who picked CHI and MIA to be so bad two years earlier? Were they predicted to be likely to be leapfrogged?

Chi was a what 2% chance of drawing 1st pick? Lotto luck. Both Chi and Mia had blips that weren't true indicators of the teams at the time.

Chi - Picked up Rose, emergence of Noah, and wasn't 2008 when they had Ben Wallace and Drew Gooden? since then, they've played some tough D and were always a tough out.
Mia - Shaq left, D Wade was injured, they were a shell of were in the previous season, especially without Wade.
Por - In 2006/07 were a young and upcoming team, drafted Roy in 06 and were a supposed future dynasty with the talent they seemed to sweep from everyones feet. Pritchard was a elevated to god status. Kahn?
ATL - Horford, Crawford playing outstanding off the bench, improved J Smith and a prime Joe Johnson in a very shallow East.

[shrink]

Chi was a what 2% chance of drawing 1st pick? Lotto luck. Both Chi and Mia had blips that weren't true indicators of the teams at the time.

First, MIA was 15-67, and had the worst record in the league.

Pssst -- I know you guys like making presumptions about the future for MIN and all teams, but allow me to make two - more accurate prediction:

1. I predict that there will still be a Lotto in 2012.

2. I predict injuries will continue to occur in 2012, and that they can affect a team's record.

[cliptastical]

First, MIA was 15-67, and had the worst record in the league.

Pssst -- I know you guys like making presumptions about the future for MIN and all teams, but allow me to make two - more accurate prediction:

1. I predict that there will still be a Lotto in 2012.

2. I predict injuries will continue to occur in 2012, and that they can affect a team's record.

Thats no fun. Give me your prediction on where the Wolves will be in 2012 (and who they will beat in the West). Thats what this topic is all about. We gave you our rationale and you are deflecting.

At the end of the day it is all about ping pong balls. The more the better.

[Foye]

Wait let me think about it...

[shrink]

First, MIA was 15-67, and had the worst record in the league.

Pssst -- I know you guys like making presumptions about the future for MIN and all teams, but allow me to make two - more accurate prediction:

1. I predict that there will still be a Lotto in 2012.

2. I predict injuries will continue to occur in 2012, and that they can affect a team's record.

Thats no fun. Give me your prediction on where the Wolves will be in 2012 (and who they will beat in the West). Thats what this topic is all about. We gave you our rationale and you are deflecting.

Ugh. Your "rationale" was that the pick was "worth three Kevin Loves" and you talked about the pick being LeBron and Kevin Durant.

Your "rationale" is about your own wish fulfillment, where you are able to predict .. two years in advance, no less .. that

1. The Wolves are the worst team in the West
2. Every other West team stays in front of them (your mistake - East teams in lottery too)
3. The Wolves win a lottery spot high enough to get a superstar
4. A superstar of LeBron/Durant status is available in the draft
5. You identify him and select him with the pick
6. He develops into one of the biggest superstars in the game.

None of these steps is a certainty, and some are not even likely. The Clippers need to hit on all of these, and the multiplicative chances of getting through all six are low.

As long as you continue to value the pick in this way, like your powerball ticket is automatically the winning powerball ticket, people are going to roll their eyes when you talk about "rationales."

[Esohny]

I like this trade for the Clippers and for Denver.

No way we would do the deal involving Kevin Love for DeAndre Jordan and the Wolves Unprotected pick though. That pick alone is worth three Kevin Loves. We can live with Jordan and a free agent center for now and use the Minnesota pick to land someone far more talented next year.

[john2jer]

0 interest in arguing with delusional Clipper fans. But this trade is just flat out bad for the Wolves, and LOL at DeAndre somehow starting. Cut the Wolves out. This is really two seperate trades combined into one, just leave it at Denver and LA.