Mike Downey Speaks the Truth

[Magilla_Gorilla]

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com ... 122.column


These guys are undrafted, but undaunted
For some QBs in draft, it's better late than never
Mike Downey
In the wake of the news

April 29, 2008

The "experts" are idiots. The know-it-alls don't know a thing.

First, they whined because the Bears did not draft a quarterback. Then they saw the Bears quickly sign Southern Illinois' Nick Hill and Colorado State's Caleb Hanie but continued to whine that there's no way an undrafted quarterback could possibly be a help to you in the NFL.

Tony Romo, Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, Jon Kitna, Kelly Holcomb and Billy Volek all went undrafted. Each became a starting quarterback in the NFL.

"My friends from Eastern Illinois told me what special qualities and abilities Tony Romo had while he was there, and a lot of them feel Nick Hill is a carbon copy," new Northern Illinois coach Jerry Kill told me Monday morning after the Bears signed the quarterback he coached at SIU.

"I've seen him and Joe Flacco, a kid I love, on the same field together and they've got quite a bit in common," Kill said. "I'll tell you something I feel with all my heart: Nick Hill's got a future in this game."

Flacco was the 18th player picked in Saturday's draft. He quarterbacked Delaware to a 20-17 victory over SIU last December in a Football Championship Subdivision semifinal game.

It was Kill's last game as head coach in Carbondale because he then took the retired Joe Novak's place at NIU.

"I'm still having nightmares about that game," he said. "We had two touchdowns called back due to penalties."

Hill can't be the Bears' No. 1 quarterback some day? Hanie can't?

Who says they can't?

Neither one could beat out Kyle Orton, a guy no team chose until the 106th pick of the 2005 draft?

The "experts" of the NFL don't often know what they are doing either. Sometimes they might as well throw darts at a dartboard.

Derek Anderson was the 213th player chosen in that 2005 draft and turned out to be a very good player. Among the quarterbacks taken ahead of him were Andrew Walter, David Greene, Stefan LeFors, Dan Orlovsky and Adrian McPherson, none of whom has set the NFL on fire.

Countless hours of film studying and in-person scouting led NFL general managers to waste first-round picks on Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Andre Ware and David Carr.

The granddaddy of all NFL draft gaffes came 25 years ago, when Todd Blackledge was drafted before Jim Kelly and Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien were picked before Dan Marino. Oh, the quarterbacks some teams could have had.

Let's look at this kid Caleb Hanie and what he does and doesn't have going for him, other than a birthday of 9/11.

The bad is that his team wasn't too good. Colorado State lost its first six games and went 3-9.

The good is that Hanie impressed quite a few people. So much so that the Dallas Cowboys, his favorite team, contacted him after Sunday's draft, as reportedly did the Colts, Rams and Bills, but he went with the Bears for a better shot at a roster spot.

Hill did the same. After agreeing to a three-year deal with the Bears

[BR0D1E86]

Scoring on an undrafted FA qb is like hitting the lottery. Sure it happens, but not to you.

[Howling Mad]

Scoring on an undrafted FA qb is like hitting the lottery. Sure it happens, but not to you.

yea true, although the Bears jumped on two very very likely candidates.

[Cliff Levingston]

yea true, although the Bears jumped on two very very likely candidates.

Who really cares? After some though, Cliff Levingston actually sides with Angelo for this draft at least in his decision not to take a QB in the later rounds (and even the first round). Our defense is built to win now with Urlacher and M. Brown almost 30 and a lot of other guys like Briggs, Harris, Tillman and Vasher either in or entering their primes. Drafting a QB like Brohm or Henne who need at least a couple years to develop into good QB's does absolutely nothing to maximize the championship window of our defense. Might as well grab some protection (Williams), a running game (Forte) and a target (Bennett) to help out the QB position as much as possible.

That's not even considering they very legit question of whether or not we have the coaching staff in place that can even develop a QB. Given our history, that's incredibly unlikely.

And yea, this draft sucked for QB's. Even Matt Ryan isn't that great of a prospect. ICLO, he's on the level of Alex Smith as a draft prospect.

[dougthonus]

QBs in order of QB rating on yahoo's qualified starter list:

Tom Brady: 6th round, pick 33
Ben Roethlisberger: Round 1, pick 11
David Garrard: Round 4, pick 10
Peyton Manning: Round 1, pick 1
Tony Romo: Undrafted
Brett Favre: Round 2, pick 6
Jeff Garcia: Undrafted
Matt Hasselbeck: 6th, pick 34
Donovan McNabb: Round 1, pick 2
Kurt Warner: Undrafted
Drew Brees: Round 2, pick 1
Jay Cutler: Round 1, pick 11
Matt Schaub: Round 3, pick 11
Carson Palmer: Round 1, pick 1
Chad Pennington: Round 1, pick 18
Sage Rosenfels: Round 4, pick 14
Derek Anderson: Round 6, pick 39
Phillip rivers: Round 1, pick 4
John Kitna: undrafted
Jason Campbell: Round 1 pick 25
Joey Harringon: Round 1, pick 3
Damon Huard: undrafted
Brian Griese: Round 3, pick 30
Kyle Boller: Round 1, pick 19
Eli Manning: Round 1, pick 1
Vince Young: round 1, pick 3
Cleo Lemon: undrafted
Tavaris Jackson: Round 2, pick 32
Trent Edwards: Round 3, pick 29
Marc Bulger: Round 6, pick 2
Brodie Croyle: Round 3, pick 21
Rex Grossman: Round 1, pick 22
Kellen Clemens: round 2, pick 17

1st round: 13
2nd round: 4
3rd round: 4
4th round: 2
5th round: 0
6th round: 4
7th round: 0
Undrafted: 6

11 1st day picks, 9 second day/undrafted picks form the top 20. If you go below that you start 10 first day picks and 3 2nd day picks forming the bottom 13.

What is interesting is that middle round QBs are basically non existant as quality NFL starters. Only 2 QBs choosen between picks 40-150 where in the top 20 of QB Rating. Once you drop below the top 20, you see a huge percentage of the guys given a chance are former first day picks who are completely flopping, or old first rounders getting opportuniity due to draft position. When you see the guys who are successful it's almost a dead even draw between 1st rounders and 2nd day players.

More or less, it looks to me like outside of the super highly rated guys in the first round that QB talent is evaluated like absolute crap. You don't get a smooth decline by round if you look at the guys who are actually successful. You get a smooth decline by starters, but almost all the second and third rounders absolutely suck balls and were thrown in due to draft position.

[Howling Mad]

Although only 5-6 of those guys will ever be a legit Superbowl QB, Mr. Thonus has me convinced.

QB isn't as important of a position in the Bear offense as it is in the majority of offenses in the league.

I'm on the bandwagon of our undrafted FA QB's.

I'll still be optimistic about the Kyle/Rex competition, given their new weapons, but I won't throw the new guys completely out the window until they get a fair chance.

I guess QB's are either seen as probably potentials or are completely missed. By looking at those stats, I don't think there is a maybe area for QB scouting.

Which proves not taking a QB in the mid rounds wasn't a mistake. Of course there are several mid round QBs that are successful, I'm sure, but those stats are rather surprising.

[BR0D1E86]

That distribution by round is (in my opinion) explained by the fact that there is usually a run on quarterbacks early in the draft as everybody tries to grab theirs and then guys take a flier on a guy at the end of the draft.

[blumeany]

+1

This Caleb Hanie video gives me hope - something Orton and Grossman can't do these days: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mGmd13WXsA

[CjayC]

Mel Kiper is real high on Caleb Hanie.

Said he could spend a year with us,and depending on what happens down the road,he may be good enough to challenge for the starting spot.

In an interview Hanie seemed real surprised,and almost hurt that he wasn't drafted,but he said knowing the Bears QB situation(Lmao is there anyone that doesn't know our terrible QB situation)he chose the Bears over his childhood favorite team Cowboys.

[dougthonus]

Although only 5-6 of those guys will ever be a legit Superbowl QB, Mr. Thonus has me convinced.

QB isn't as important of a position in the Bear offense as it is in the majority of offenses in the league.

I'm on the bandwagon of our undrafted FA QB's.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying undrafted QBs are great. All I'm really saying is that if you don't get someone whom everyone knows is really good (usually with a very high 1st round pick) that your odds don't seem that different at the end as they do at the beginning. I'd rather have the franchise 1st rounder, but if I didn't have one, then I wouldn't be confident in the ability of the guy drafted in the late 2nd round or later. I'm not confident in our undrafted QBs either though (of course).

The guys taken in the middle don't seem to have great careers. Even Favre and Brees (only 2nd rounders who've had success) were taken in the top 40. After the top 40, the next highest drafted guy was Garrard ~106 overall (not sure what 4.10 was depending on compensation picks etc). After him, you're basically down to 6th rounders like Brady, Bulger, and Hasselbeck.

[Howling Mad]

The point I got from your post is that mid round QB's are rare to succeed.

I've actually heard it many times, QB scouting is either hit or miss, its the hardest position to scout for, so you never get those maybes.

The guys (which are undrafted) that seem to have it, don't necessarily have the best arms, or have the best NFL type bodies. They usual have great leadership qualities, good football IQs, and most of them are the reasons why their previous teams succeed.

I think those sentiments can be said about the two guys we picked up, and having two competitions for QB depth is a great thing. Rex/Orton for the 1/2 spot and Hanie/Hill for the third spot.

It could be a possibility to carry four QB's, since we are so unsure of that position, but I'd be surprised if we did that.

I think its more likely that if Orton or Rex shine way above the other, that the weaker of the two would be cut.

[Friend_Of_Haley]

It's also very possible that the loser of Hill/Hanie is kept on as a Practice Squad guy.

[dougthonus]

I think its more likely that if Orton or Rex shine way above the other, that the weaker of the two would be cut.

I doubt it, the UDFA guys are probably not going to be viable enough to be your #1 and #2 backups. Even if they end up being good players, they'd be low ranked rookies. Rookies as a general rule are poor at the position. You ought to be scared to death to go into the season with 2 UDFA rookies as your primary backups.

I find it highly more likely that both UDFA guys get cut than both stay (by a factor of at least 10).

[IlliniNRG]

More or less, it looks to me like outside of the super highly rated guys in the first round that QB talent is evaluated like absolute crap. You don't get a smooth decline by round if you look at the guys who are actually successful. You get a smooth decline by starters, but almost all the second and third rounders absolutely suck balls and were thrown in due to draft position.

I would like to see the missing half of this analysis - how many QBs are drafted in the early rounds, versus the mid/late and UDFA? I'm sure the UDFA dwarfs the other categories for number of players signed, so the success of UDFA's is probably greatly overstated on your chart.

Proportionally, I'm sure the mid-round guys still do far better than UDFA's, so it's not like the talent evaluation is THAT bad. Of course it's an inexact science, but is it worse than any other position?