Retro Player of the Year Project

[bastillon]

The Mailman was much more consistent than Hakeem in terms of impact; Hakeem's peak was higher.

yeah, Mailman was consistently WORSE than Hakeem. the reason why he's higher is because in his prime years he didn't play with Sleepy Floyd as his 2nd best player under moronic coach who made Maxwell their GTG. he got Stockton instead ... under Jerry Sloan.

if Malone had Hakeem's support, nobody would've voted for him at all, with all that competition in the 90s.

[Doctor MJ]

Weren't MJ and Russell both 35 in their last POY they won?

Also I am amazed that Karl Malone finished ahead of Hakeem in the 90's years only, when it was clear that Hakeem was the 2nd best player of the decade.

I'm going by the age b-r.com gives for them, which is why I have guys tied by year instead of broken down by days.

[Doctor MJ]

The Mailman was much more consistent than Hakeem in terms of impact; Hakeem's peak was higher.

yeah, Mailman was consistently WORSE than Hakeem. the reason why he's higher is because in his prime years he didn't play with Sleepy Floyd as his 2nd best player under moronic coach who made Maxwell their GTG. he got Stockton instead ... under Jerry Sloan.

if Malone had Hakeem's support, nobody would've voted for him at all, with all that competition in the 90s.

Well now that's a bit reactionary. Bottom line is that Hakeem had a couple years early in the decade where he wasn't playing like a superstar, and three years late in the decade where age clearly was getting to him. If he'd actually been Hakeem-dominant the whole decade, this would have come out different.

Also, to elaborate on one of the fundamental truths about this project: When doing all-time great player comparisons, it's certainly not good enough to treat all years equally. The 2nd best player in one year is certainly not necessarily just as good as the 2nd best player in another year, but this project's POY shares treats them that way.

[semi-sentient]

Nice write-up and breakdowns.

I learned a ridiculous amount in this project and am thankful to everyone who was able to contribute.

Are we planning on revisiting this project after the 2010-11 season?

[mopper8]

Nice write-up and breakdowns.

I learned a ridiculous amount in this project and am thankful to everyone who was able to contribute.

Are we planning on revisiting this project after the 2010-11 season?

I was hoping we could do another project, like a top-100 again, or another all-time draft.

I'd be down to participate in anything though, as a real voting member next time lol.

[Vinsanity420]

Also, to elaborate on one of the fundamental truths about this project: When doing all-time great player comparisons, it's certainly not good enough to treat all years equally. The 2nd best player in one year is certainly not necessarily just as good as the 2nd best player in another year, but this project's POY shares treats them that way.

+1

It's why Dwight Howard is ALREADY ahead of a guy like Nate Thurmond.

[kaima]

On Malone, a couple of things.

It's important to note how often people assume that longevity -- a really long peak -- matters. Or, rather, doesn't. Longevity can be, if not always then very, very often, tied to greatness. Malone's absolute peak may not have been as high as Hakeem's, but he was a machine in such a way that very few players in history, including Hakeem, can match.

His peak was quite high -- talking about an arguable top five player for something like 13-14 years straight (note: I said arguable) -- and it shows through in his career stats, either cumulative or per game.

As an example, Malone averaged 25 and ten for his career. Hakeem superseded or matched those numbers in four seasons out of 19.

Stats guys love Malone, and many would still take him over Hakeem. The "Inner Circle" listing at bball-reference would be one example -- Malone is seen as second only to Jordan in the 90s. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4323

Further, the idea that Malone was clearly beneath Hakeem was not the meme or general tone when the two were playing. I remember quite clearly that Malone would win polls that asked people to rank Jordan's closest rival, or the second best player of the Jordan era.

As recently as the early 00s Malone was still considered either as good as Hakeem, or better. All-time.

It's only with retrospect that this has changed, rightly or wrongly.

In my estimation, people left a slot open for Malone...if he won a title. Now that it's clear that this cannot open (well, temporal reset?), the opinions have shifted.

Perhaps an accident of history -- switch Malone's best teams (mid-90s, broken down or no Jordan) with Hakeem's, and the perception would be that Malone was a top ten player, while Hakeem was in some grey area -- or just harsh reality, but Hakeem's stock is rising and Malone's continues to drift downward or plummet with a great many people, who now act as if Malone's name doesn't belong in the same breath when talking about Dream.

Of the great careers harmed by Jordan, it's likely that no one player was as much a victim of the Jordan Effect as Malone. Consider, in the (admittedly questionable, as is inherent in what-ifs) zero-sum shift of everything's-the-same-except-no-Mike vantage, Malone wins 7 scoring titles, three straight MVPs and two world championships.

Under that standard, I don't know if people would be so down on Karl.

Since childhood, I'd watched Malone. And Dream. Charles, DRob, Ewing. There was always a sense of maybe two-three guys as the absolute best post-players by year, in a decade or era that was dominated, if not defined (Michael), by post-play. Every year -- every damned year -- Malone was one of those players. The other guys, as great as they were, would drift in and out of that circle, until Malone was something akin to Brett (and perhaps as hated). Malone was then being compared to guys like Timmy, Shaq and KG -- the best of their generation.

To me that was and is amazing.

Anyway, my perspective, and a bit of a warning: I may start sifting through the missed threads (a lot, a lot) and throwing in my opinions year to year. I've been busy, and sidetracked with analysis of stuff like Magic's worth and the mid-80s' Lakers strength relative to basketball history; whether that's where my heart lies, it certainly is where my family tree resides, so I may post some of that in the POY threads at some point.

In other words, perhaps Doc will want to close the threads now.

[Optimism Prime]

My thoughts on Malone: Definitely consistently great, no doubt.

I'm wondering if the "Malone >= Hakeem" line of reasoning came about due to the fact that Malone is one of the top-3 PFs ever (and has a case for best, depending on if you classify Duncan as a center or not), wihle Hakeem is probably a fringe top-5 center (Kareem, Russell, Wilt are all above him in my book, Shaq, Duncan and Moses right there with him).

I think Malone definitely makes more all-time teams than does Hakeem--justifiably so--and maybe that's where these rankings are coming from.

That said--just like not all POY shares are equal, not all positional rankings are, either. Just look at any fantasy draft.

[Sedale Threatt]

Thanks for putting this thing together, and keeping it going.

[ElGee]

RPOY Reflections

Before this project, I didn't have a good grasp on an all-time ranking. Frankly, the criteria seems fuzzy and a bit arbitrary to me. But extending this project's criteria has me thinking about many player's places in an all-time hierarchy of worth...which player gives his team the greatest chance to win over his career?

(Note: I'm not even sure this is the best criteria for the nebulous "all-time rankings" -- what if Michael Jordan were hurt every spring? Would it completely eradicate his greatness as a basketball player? I tend to think there is something intuitive when we ask the all-time question in sports. Gale Sayers played 5 years of football, but he was absolutely magical. He was just selected No. 22 in the NFL Network's top 100 list. I believe Dr. MJ calls this the "who impressed me" intuition.)

POY Shares provide a good ballpark for estimating a player's relative contribution toward a title every year. Nerd Alert For me, the more interesting way to view these results macroscopically would be to assign a weight to each season's difficulty and then within each season estimate the probability each player increases every team's championship's odds by if he were added to every roster.

For instance, 1987 was a pretty darn difficult year to win a title. 1973...well, there was massive expansion and two leagues.

For each player's "Championship Probability," there would no longer be a fixed relationship between first and second place votes and between first place votes across years. That means in, say, 1975 the No. 1 player (Bob McAdoo for me) might not be as good as the No. 6 player in 2006. In the RPOY project, McAdoo earned 10 points and Kobe Bryant 0 in that situation. Using this method, McAdoo and Bryant might have the same Championship Probability score despite relative standing among peers.

I'm in the process of using the above criteria to iron out a career weighted POY share value/all-time ranking...
--

With that said, I gained a massive appreciation for Bird, Kareem, Russell, and to a degree Jordan.

I maintained a high opinion of Magic, Duncan, KG and Jerry West.

I was truly impressed with the longevity of Karl Malone, Dr. J, Kareem and Russell.

I'm not as high on the following players: Robinson, Stockton, Wilkins, Isiah, Moses, and most notably, Wilt.

There were also a number of other players of lesser historical recognition who had shorter peaks who impressed me: Wade, Nash, King, Marques Johnson, David Thompson and Clyde Frazier come to mind. (Nash and Wade because their play became more impressive to me as we went back through time.)

[mopper8]

With that said, I gained a massive appreciation for Bird, Kareem, Russell, and to a degree Jordan.

I maintained a high opinion of Magic, Duncan, KG and Jerry West.

I was truly impressed with the longevity of Karl Malone, Dr. J, Kareem and Russell.

I'm not as high on the following players: Robinson, Stockton, Wilkins, Isiah, Moses, and most notably, Wilt.

There were also a number of other players of lesser historical recognition who had shorter peaks who impressed me: Wade, Nash, King, Marques Johnson, David Thompson and Clyde Frazier come to mind. (Nash and Wade because their play became more impressive to me as we went back through time.)

If you move Duncan from that second list to the first, you've basically described my thoughts to a T.

[Optimism Prime]

Too lazy to do this myself, but just curious--who won MVP and RPOY the same year, and who won RPOY without winning the championship?

[nonemus]

IMO, when evaluating GOAT lists, these MVP evaluations hold more importance than the "real" ones.

[mopper8]

Too lazy to do this myself, but just curious--who won MVP and RPOY the same year, and who won RPOY without winning the championship?

I'll do a decade or two for you.

Year | MVP | RPOY | Title team
2010 | Lebron | Lebron | Lakers
2009 | Lebron | Lebron | Lakers
2008 | Kobe | Garnett | Celtics
2007 | Dirk | Duncan | Spurs
2006 | Nash | Wade | Heat
2005 | Nash | Duncan | Spurs
2004 | Garnett | Garnett | Pistons
2003 | Duncan | Duncan | Spurs
2002 | Duncan | Shaq | Lakers
2001 | Iverson | Shaq | Lakers
2000 | Shaq | Shaq | Lakers
1999 | Malone | Duncan | Spurs
1998 | Jordan | Jordan | Bulls
1997 | Malone | Jordan | Bulls
1996 | Jordan | Jordan | Bulls
1995 | Robinson | Hakeem | Rockets
1994 | Hakeem | Hakeem | Rockets
1993 | Barkley | Jordan | Bulls
1992 | Jordan | Jordan | Bulls
1991 | Jordan | Jordan | Bulls
1990 | Magic | Jordan | Pistons

I bolded that last one because it seems that was the first time (going backwards) that someone won RPOY while neither the MVP winner nor the best player on the title-winning team.

[TrueLAfan]

After reviewing my voting:

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0BwlwuTuVOEwwOTkzZGY2YjktZTEzOS00NmQ5LThkY2EtZDA1Mjk2NzdmNTk3&hl=en&authkey=CPOJ7PQE

Surprised, but not so much so: Wilt. A victim of circumstance more than once. A victim of his own issues as well. He was #4 on my list, and I don’t feel I was too nice or too hard on him.

The duos came out right. Magic vs. Bird: Magic by a bit, with TD sneaking between them at #6 on my list. Likewise with Jerry West and Oscar; I have the logo slightly ahead with Hakeem between them. Not a lot to choose between either set. YMMV.

The guy I have lower: Shaq. Don’t know why, but Shaq didn’t crack my top 10. Not too big of a deal though; numbers 9-14 are tightly bunched on my list.

I knew he was great; others agreed: Julius Erving. Erving was #10 on my list and #9 overall. 13 years receiving votes. Yup.

Like others, I’m surprised that I have Hakeem so low (14th on my list). That doesn’t change my opinion that, if I were starting a team, I’d take Hakeem (14th) over Karl Malone (9th) without question. But kaima is also right that the idea that Hakeem was/is better than Malone is pretty revisionist. In the actual MVP vote from 1989-97 (the period where their peaks dovetailed), Malone was ranked above Hakeem 6 out of 9 years. In our RPOY, Malone was on top for 5 out of 9 years. I’d still rather have Hakeem, but it’s not like it isn’t a close decision. My respect for Karl went up a bit with this project.

[nonemus]

After reviewing my voting:

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0BwlwuTuVOEwwOTkzZGY2YjktZTEzOS00NmQ5LThkY2EtZDA1Mjk2NzdmNTk3&hl=en&authkey=CPOJ7PQE

Surprised, but not so much so: Wilt. A victim of circumstance more than once. A victim of his own issues as well. He was #4 on my list, and I don’t feel I was too nice or too hard on him.

The duos came out right. Magic vs. Bird: Magic by a bit, with TD sneaking between them at #6 on my list. Likewise with Jerry West and Oscar; I have the logo slightly ahead with Hakeem between them. Not a lot to choose between either set. YMMV.

The guy I have lower: Shaq. Don’t know why, but Shaq didn’t crack my top 10. Not too big of a deal though; numbers 9-14 are tightly bunched on my list.

I knew he was great; others agreed: Julius Erving. Erving was #10 on my list and #9 overall. 13 years receiving votes. Yup.

Like others, I’m surprised that I have Hakeem so low (14th on my list). That doesn’t change my opinion that, if I were starting a team, I’d take Hakeem (14th) over Karl Malone (9th) without question. But kaima is also right that the idea that Hakeem was/is better than Malone is pretty revisionist. In the actual MVP vote from 1989-97 (the period where their peaks dovetailed), Malone was ranked above Hakeem 6 out of 9 years. In our RPOY, Malone was on top for 5 out of 9 years. I’d still rather have Hakeem, but it’s not like it isn’t a close decision. My respect for Karl went up a bit with this project.

I'm confused. What do all the numbers mean? (In your excel sheet)

[mopper8]

Code: Select all

Year | MVP  |  RPOY | Title Team
89   Magic    Jordan   Pistons
88   Jordan   Jordan   Lakers
87   Magic    Magic    Lakers
86   Bird     Bird     Celtics
85   Bird     Bird     Lakers
84   Bird     Bird     Celtics
83   Moses    Moses    Sixers
82   Moses    Moses    Lakers
81   Dr. J    Bird     Celtics
80   KAJ      KAJ      Lakers
79   Moses    KAJ      Sonics
78   Walton   KAJ      Bullets
77   KAJ      KAJ      Blazers
76   KAJ      Dr.J*    Celts
75   McAdoo   Barry    Warriors
74   KAJ      KAJ      Celts
73   Cowens   KAJ      Knicks
72   KAJ      KAJ      Lakers
71   KAJ      KAJ      Bucks
70   Reed     West     Knicks

So, through the 69-70 season, every RPOY was either MVP or best player on the title team save:

Jordan in 89-90 (Magic, Pistons)
Jordan in 88-89 (Magic, Pistons)
Kareem in 78-79 (Moses, Sonics)
Kareem in 77-78 (Walton, Bullets)
Julius Erving in 75-76 sorta kinda, since he was ABA MVP and on the ABA title team
Kareem in 72-73 (Cowens, Knicks)
Jerry West in 69-70 (Reed, Knicks)

[KevinTheWrench]

Hey guys I have been following this project from the very beginning and learning a lot. Hope you dont mind me commenting. First off I would quickly like to say that when I see people try and discredit this project because of a bias towards a certain player I have to laugh, considering a third of the original voters were from that persons team. Anyways a bit on that later. Some thoughts

-This project very mirrors my own Goat List

-I think Bill Russell is the GOAT and it is nice to see this project give him the top spot. He is the only player who was top 3 in the voting every single year, which is remarkable! Was top 2 all but one year. If he doesnt get hurt maybe Boston wins 12 out of 13 years, which is ridiculous.

-Despite Jabbar getting more shares than Jordan, I have Jordan at the #2 spot. Clearly longevity was the reason Jabbar ranked ahead Jordan. You cant use that arguement for Jordan vs Russell.

-The results of this project also go with my view that there is no "Immortal six". Shaq and especially Dunacan definitely deserve to be mentioned with Magic and Bird. It is too bad Duncan blows out his knee at the end of the 2000 season, because I think he would have been gotten about 0.6-0.8 share that year, which would have put him right near Magic. And even though he played through it, the PF in 2006 hurt him in the voting. I think he grabs maybe a 0.3-0.4 share. With these two years I think he could even pass Magic. Now I know a lot of players have been injured in the course of this project, but I think it was more disappointing for Duncan because a) he actually played all season in 2000 and missed the post season and b) he played through the PF in 2006. I think it is a bit different than say missing the entire season.

-This project has the same result in the Shaq vs Duncan debate as I do. I have Duncan ahead of Shaq in the all time rankings despite Shaq playing longer.

-It still puzzles me how Duncan didnt get every #1 vote in 2003.

-Surprised to see Hakeem so low, although I will say I find him to be a bit overrated. Not #13 worthy, but I think it goes to show that he wasnt some mythical god.

-Despite what I said at the very start of my message, I actually think Bryant was a bit too low in this project. It just irks me that the RPOY gets dismissed because of everyone being Kobe haterz. I think he very slightly got a few too many votes for 2000-2002, but that he didnt get enough votes from 2006 on. And ironically it wasnt because of Kobe "haters" I actually think the Laker fans/neutral people/people who appreciate Bryant voted him to low. I think if there was a do over for the 2006-present period, we would see Bryant get near/in the top 10 as people got more comfortable with the voting methodology (as numerous people have said)

-A bit surprised to see West so low!

Anyways guys, even though I didnt participate in this project, I followed it from the very beinning. Hope you dont mind me posting some of my thoughts!!

[JordansBulls]

-This project very mirrors my own Goat List

-I think Bill Russell is the GOAT and it is nice to see this project give him the top spot. He is the only player who was top 3 in the voting every single year,

You do realize it is quite a lot easier to be top 3 with less players and less talented players in the league? I mean coming into the league with a league MVP player on the team means a lot.

[mopper8]

Just to be clear, my argument never rested on the notion that we ought to consider population growth writ large, but rather that we would be foolish to ignore that a larger proportion of the current population plays basketball and that it presents a more lucrative career track now more than ever before, while being more open to more parts of the world (african-Americans, south Americans, Europeans). You might say it's folly to suggest that because Kansas is bigger than old school London we would expect more modern-day shakespeares. My counterpoint is that Chinua Achebe, Salman Rushdie, W.E.B Dubois, etc etc were not even possible 150 years ago, and not because the worlds population was smaller but because educationally they would never have the opportunity to self-actualize as brilliant writers and thinkers.

I don't see how this is even an argument. How many