Tracking the Defense

[montestewart]

^
My sense has been that with Blatche's better defensive court vision (he seems to see the runners and the ball better), his length and long arms, his bigger body that's somewhat more willing to move laterally and body up, he was clearly better than Jamison, and sometimes that seemed more than apparent. It would be interesting to see how far the numbers back that up and how much of it is illusion.

[Nivek]

Jeebus. The Post will print any hack's stuff these days.

That's what I said when they said I'd made the cut.

[Nivek]

I don't know how I feel about having a celebrity on the forum. They tend to lean towards big-headishness. Time to ban Nivek.

(As always, excellent analysis)

If you guys ban me, where will I go to stiff the regular people's autograph requests?

[Nivek]

manifested -- I did not track the defense last season. My sense of Blatche's defense was that it was not bad. And, in Blatche's defense, he has made some quality defensive plays that won't necessarily show up in his numbers. Even this kind of tracking is ultimately imperfect -- it doesn't really get at shot prevention, for example. So, when there's a penetration and Blatche slides over and forces a pass to the perimeter instead of a layup, he's made a good play, but it's unlikely to show in his results.

Now, I did get into that level of tracking in more complex tracking. Stuff where I was gathering information on rotations and helps. That's a lot more than I'm willing to do unless I'm getting paid for it. And, if I'm getting paid for it, the data would almost certainly be proprietary, which means I wouldn't be sharing any of it here.

Still, while it's imperfect, this system provides far more insight into defense than what we've previously had.

[soapbox]I highly recommend tracking/charting for those who want to learn and really understand what they're saying. Here's something simple: just track offensive play types. I can provide a list of the standard types of basketball plays you'll see, if anyone is interested. What you'll quickly see is the coaching chess match of move, counter-move, counter to the counter.[/soapbox]

[manifested]

Would love to see your list of offensive play types. Although, the pace of tonight's Knicks game might not include any halfcourt sets.


Also really curious to know what play type the Eddie Jordan top of the key weave falls under.

[montestewart]

Nivek, I'm interested in seeing your categories of offensive plays. My wife's getting close to my level of understanding, and I have to stay ahead of her. As always, thanks for your contributions.

[Nivek]

Also really curious to know what play type the Eddie Jordan top of the key weave falls under.

I know this is at least semi-sarcastic, but...Eddie's weave always evolved into an offensive play, which fell within the list I'll post in a few minutes. That opening pattern was designed to move the defense around and get the offensive players where Eddie wanted them. The real play (as in the attempt to score) happened later in the possession.

[manifested]

Also really curious to know what play type the Eddie Jordan top of the key weave falls under.

I know this is at least semi-sarcastic, but...Eddie's weave always evolved into an offensive play, which fell within the list I'll post in a few minutes. That opening pattern was designed to move the defense around and get the offensive players where Eddie wanted them. The real play (as in the attempt to score) happened later in the possession.

I was being sarcastic but that's interesting. Sounds kind of like putting a RB in motion out of the backfield in football.

[dlts20]

I know it sounds crazy but I think you guys should throw it game 1. The Magic are better but we also just didnt show up at all. It makes everyone's numbers take a bigger hit than it should be

[doclinkin]

Would love to see your list of offensive play types. Although, the pace of tonight's Knicks game might not include any halfcourt sets.


Also really curious to know what play type the Eddie Jordan top of the key weave falls under.

Series of dribble hand-offs (DHO) used against teams that switch defenders. The idea was to exploit a one-on-one match-up between a slasher against a slower-footed defender or to work a favorable size match-up, either on the ball or in the intended recipient of the short pass. EJ had a team full of tweeners but on the offensive end he was able to exploit this as a positive. Caron, Gil, Larry, AD all had decent ability to roll to the hole with ball in hand (Caron only within 2-3 dribbles maximum) and Tawn was a tough cover for either the SF or the PF. Tawn's range kept lanes free for the DHO players at the top of the key to drive in and attack, where the big PF had to follow to the wing to cover Tawn. You have the option then of an ISO attack with your 'smalls' or 'mids' or a dribble kick to the player who fills in behind you or the wing, or a truncated drive-to-dump to a back-cutting 'mid' off the wing (either Caron or Jamison leaking in behind the defender). Or stare down a defender who sags into the lane, step back and drop in a three. Let Jamison chase down any long bounces for a re-set on the attack or a quick flip putback.

The DHO ISO options looked like 'weave and heave' but they consistently ranked high in terms of offensive efficiency and were one of the first teams in the league to exploit the no-hand-check emphasis that caused the renaissance of the combo guard.

It was on the defensive end that the sheets were too short to cover the shoulders and feets.

[Nivek]

Okay, here's a fairly comprehensive list of offensive play types:

Handoffs
- with receiver shooting
- with hander rolling to the basket
- with hander (or other) popping out to shoot
- fake handoff with hander shooting
- handoff for a drive
- ball rotation out of handoff (play starts with a handoff, defense rotates, offense moves the ball until it finds open man type of play)

Pick & Roll
- with penetration or jumper by dribbler
- pass into paint or post-up (either by the screener or by someone else)
- p/r to a catch & shoot jumper (including pick & pop)
- dribble drive after pick & pop setup
- ball rotation out of p/r

Post Up
- pass into paint from a post-up (usually because a weakside defender doubles)
- pass out of the post to a catch & shoot
- pass out of post, receiver penetrates
- post up with dribbling or turn-and-face
- ball rotation out of a post-up

Isolations
- iso penetration
- iso drive with pass into the paint
- iso drive & kick
- rotation out of an iso (usually a drive & kick where the ball keeps moving)

Pin-Downs
- perimeter shot off a screen (down screen or cross screen, typically)
- dribble off screen action for a shooter
- pass inside to screener after pin-down
- pass into paint to player curling off a pin-down
- catch & shoot out of a dribble off of screen action (offensive player comes off a screen, catches, but instead of shooting drives. Then passes to a teammate who shoots.)
- catch & shoot for screener on UCLA cut (A makes pass to B (usually in high post); instead of screening away, A cuts off of B and cuts toward the hoop, often using B as a screener; can end up a handoff or a pass to a cutter for a layup)
- pass into paint to cutter on UCLA cut
- pass to screener on back door instead of shooter after pin-down (usually when the defense overplays the shooter)

Misc.
- catch & shoot from ball rotation
- dribble drive after potential catch & shoot
- pass into paint on backdoor cut
- pass into paint after man frees himself (usually a cut)
- scramble plays
- fast break -- dribble
- fast break -- pass
- follow-up offensive rebound on fast break
- offensive rebound follow-up (tip-in)
- pass in paint after an offensive rebound
- catch & shoot after an offensive rebound

I wouldn't suggest tracking all this at the start. Stick to broad categories like hand off, screen/roll, post up, isolations, pin-downs (screen sets) and catch & shoot. As you're tracking, you'll start to see the variations.

[Nivek]

Finished tracking the Knicks game (I'll get to the Cleveland game tonight most likely). A few observations from the defensive scoresheet:

- Overall, not bad from McGee -- C+, B- range. His defg was not good -- .571 on 10.5 dfga -- but, he had 5 defensive boards and 3.5 non-steal forced turnovers in just 25 minutes. He also had a steal, so he accounted for 4.5 of NYK's 18 turnovers. His defg might have been better, but the NY scorekeeper classified as passes at least 2 plays that looked like shots to me. McGee "blocked" both of them.

- Wall continued a trend of getting pretty soundly torched. His defg through 4 games is .668. He failed to force a turnover of any kind against NYK.

- Solid defensive game from Armstrong. High defg (.571), but he had 2 non-steal forced turnovers and 6 defensive boards.

- Gil was ye olde mixed bag in his first game back. His defg wasn't bad (.500), but he allowed 4 penetrations leading to 3 scores, he just 1 defensive rebound, and his only forced turnover was a steal.

[willbcocks]

Yeah, I definitely saw more than one block there from Mcgee. Nevik: Can you analyze the games by quarter or by event? I want to know what Mcgee's D stats look like in the first 3 quarters vs the last quarter, and after picking up 4 fouls.

[Nivek]

By quarter breakdowns for McGee:

1st Quarter
dFG -- 1.5-2.5
PF -- 1
dFT -- 0-1
FTO -- 1.5

2nd Quarter
dFG -- 1-3
PF -- 0
dFT -- 0-0
FT -- 0

3rd Quarter
dFG -- 1.5-2.5
PF -- 2
dFT -- 0-2
FTO -- 2

4th Quarter
dFG -- 2.0-2.5
PF -- 1
dFT -- 1-1
FTO -- 0

He picked up his 4th foul (an and-1 for Amarea) at 5:58. After that, he split a missed FG with Wall (who allowed penetration) and then was subbed out at 3:45.

As you'd expect for someone matched against a self-check like Mozgov, he was active in help D. He was inolved as a help defender on 8 shots, and he split a forced turnover with Blatche where neither was really primary or help -- it was after an offensive rebound and everyone was scrambling.

He was more effective as a help defender in this game. The Knicks shot 4-6 when I noted McGee as the primary defender. When he helped, the Knicks shot 4-9. However, 3 of his forced turnovers were as primary -- 2 travelings by Mozgov and taking an offensive foul from Mozgov. The travelings were basically the same play: Mozgov about to shoot, McGee coming out and Mozgov attempting to put the ball on the floor, but shuffling his feet first.

[Zonkerbl]

Such an interesting article. Such a time sink for you though! Do you only track Wizards games?

Used to be our perimeter defense sucked but at least we had Haywood. Oh, and Jamison. Ugh.

Now we have decent defenders on the perimeter, except for Wall, and our frontcourt defense sucks. At least you can expect Wall to improve.

[Nivek]

I track only Wizards games. Not much of a time suck -- I track a game in less time than it takes to watch it live. I do it after the fact with a play-by-play so I end up fast-forwarding through commercials, time-outs, stoppages, free throws, dribbling up court, etc. It cuts down on my Buck & Phil time, but I think I'll survive.

One minor complaint: I don't like whatever Comcast is doing with the courtside sound. I used to be able to pick up defensive calls from the broadcast. It's tougher to hear them now.

I would not go so far as saying the team has good perimeter defenders. Hinrich's drtg is 117 through 4 games; Arenas's one game (that I've tracked so far) drtg was 117. Wall's drtg through 4 is 121. Young is at 116. Thornton has been good (drtg of 88). No one is forcing misses, big or little, except Thornton (defg of .454) and Young (.475). Young's drtg remains high because he doesn't force turnovers or get many defensive rebounds.

[zenvibes]

Kevin, glad to see you are tracking the defenses again. I remember way back when you had something cooking with this.

I've been doing some very minor league version of studying defensive players through the years. I think you are going to find kirk Hinrich is one of the best wing defenders the Wiz have had in along time. Kirk plays too cautiously on offense to make the kind of impact he is truly making on a team overall but defensively he is tops on Guards. Best I've seen in the NBA over the past few years save Thabo Sefolosha. Of course guys like Wade, Bron, Kobe can turn it up to an elite notch whenever they want but guys like Kirk bring it all game long.

[Nivek]

Thanks, zen. I'm not seeing it with Kirk so far. It could be some aging signs -- he seems to be having some trouble staying in front of his man. And, he doesn't really have the size to affect shots much. So far this season, guys are shooting over him pretty easily. He's doing okay at forcing turnovers, but nothing spectacular. It's still VERY early, though. I'm hoping he looks better as the season goes on.

[AnotherFinn]

Can you tell what the defence of Cartier Martin is looking like?

[Nivek]

Can you tell what the defence of Cartier Martin is looking like?

Very limited sample size (48 total minutes that I've tracked so far), but he's looked good in what I've tracked. His defg isn't good (.565), but he's forcing turnovers. His stop percentage is 55%; his drtg is 100. Team drtg is 111 in the games I've tracked.