Game Changer 11.10.10: Fluke or Fact?

[Paper Face]

http://nba-facts-and-rumors.blogs.cbssp ... ami%20Heat

Was the Jazz win a fluke or a sign of the Heat's cooler underbelly? Did the Hornets just win with their bench? And are the Cavs leading their freaking division? All this and more in today's GameChanger .
Posted by Matt Moore

Each game is made up of elements which help formulate the outcome. Monday through Friday, we'll bring you the elements from the night before's games in our own specialized version of the game recaps. It's not everything that happened, but it's an insight into what lead to the results you'll see in the box scores. This is the Game Changer.

THE BIG ONE: JAZZ PULL A FAST ONE ON THE HEAT

So the question is... was this fluke a not? Because the implications are rather significant. Let's not, for a moment, take anything away from the Utah Jazz. They were on the road, in a hostile sleepy environment, and they simply scratched, clawed, and pounded their way to a win over the most star-studded team in the NBA. Down by 20 last night, they roared back in a 72-point second half to defeat the Heat. A huge win for coach Jerry Sloan, a win the team needed, and an amazing night for Jazz fans that shows their tenacity, their heart, and their talent.

Now, then.

The Heat won the rebounding battle, 46-44. The Heat split the turnover battle, with each team losing it a dozen times, nothing too egregious. The Heat fouled only 20 times to the Jazz' 32. And until the fourth quarter, they held a significant advantage in shooting percentage, with the Jazz shooting 41% to the Heat's 47%. There were a lot of things that would have to go right in the fourth for the Jazz to force overtime.

They happened.

For starters, the Jazz shot 17 of 23 in the fourth, not Indiana numbers , but still an absurd streak. This was of course capped off by Paul Millsap. Millsap entered last night's game a career 2 of 20 3-point shooter (10%). In the final minute of the game, he drained three 3-pointers, making him perfect on the season, as they were the only 3-pointers he's taken this season. Swish. Swish. Swish. Throw on top of that the 46 point detonation he leveled with the other 37 points, including the two on the tip in to force overtime, and you have an amazing night for Millsap, and a huge outlier in terms of predictable results. The Heat suddenly found themselves dropped from an airplane and happened to land right in the middle of a tornado. That's what we're talking about here in terms of probabilities.

So was it a fluke?

I don't think so.

We see the same pattern carried out across the Heat's three losses. A scoring forward down low who's able to use his size to create points amid the barren trees of Miami (tall, sure, but not great defenders). And a point guard who can tear you up (Deron Williams tallied 14 assists last night). In Boston it was Rondo and Glen Davis; in New Orleans it was Chris Paul and Emeka Okafor. Now Millsap-Williams scratch their names onto the tree trunk of inside-out combos that have cooled the Heat. Furthermore, we see the same kind of discombobulation we've seen all season, especially in crunch time, the same reliance on sub-par players to take the biggest shots ("Eddie House for the win... clang!"), the same lackadaisical performance out of the Heat mentally, and the same defensive breakdowns in the biggest moments.

Adding to the improbability of the night was the fact that the Triad gave the kind of performance you'd want from them. Dwyane Wade had 39 and 6 rebounds, LeBron James had a triple-double with 20, 11 boards, and 14 assists, and Chris Bosh had 17 and 9. And they still lost .

The Jazz needed a few more things go their way in this one, that's for sure. The problem is the Heat handed the Jazz those things on a platter. And trying to establish exactly how to resolve those things isn't going to be easy for head coach Erik Spoelstra, who's got to be feeling a little hot this morning either way.

Great win for the Jazz, tough loss for the Heat.

[HammerDunk]

Anyone who writes that game off as a fluke needs to have their testis removed.

[Shamrock]

Kudos to Paul Milsapp always knew he had the potential, glad he's finally getting the start and some solid minutes.

[DelaneyRudd]

I dunno, I wouldn't say I'd feel comfy knowing the only way to win a game is having our PF go 3/3 from 3. That seems a bit on the flukey side. I will now proceed to check and recheck my testes as I do before leaving for work every day.

[DiscoLives4ever]

DR, we only need our PF to go 3/3 from 3 if Big Al lays another egg and we have another first-half of solid- to good-looks that we just miss. I think one thing that has gone somewhat unnoticed is that the Jazz offense was executing decent the first half, shots just wouldn't drop. Although it's unlikely that Millsap will explode like this again, it's also equally unlikely that we will NEED him to

[Paper Face]

Ex-point, Disco.

[HammerDunk]

DR, you can keep your sack in place for the fact that I know you know better...

[Millsap24]

It does seem like a fluke.

- A notorious bad road team coming back from a 22-point deficit
- Clutch shooting from a hard-nose hustling PF
- Beating a superstar stacked team
- Beating the refs

Even if it was, it was still an awesome win.

[BarneyGumble]

People will look at the box score in a few years and fluke will not even be in their minds. Lebron had a triple double and Wade dropped 39....above-average games for both players. The Jazz simply got it done through a combination of hard work, an unwillingness to quit, mental toughness, and the basketball gods shining down on Millsap. Hard to conclude the Jazz lucked out on that game.....too many things to overcome for luck alone to be the cause.

[Jase]

Kudos to your team's victory last night. I'll root for any team playing against the Heat, but Millsap's performance was bananas. Good luck the rest of the season. See you in the Playoffs!

[HammerDunk]

No fluke.

[dr0welf]

It's good to see a team with some Heart! I'm so glad Boozer is gone.....

[HolyToledo]

It's good to see a team with some Heart! I'm so glad Boozer is gone.....

Exactly! This ia team that works together and now it looks like Jefferson is buying into it as well. These victories will carry the Jazz a long way this season!

[UTJazzFan_Echo1]

It does seem like a fluke.
- A notorious bad road team coming back from a 22-point deficit

Uhhhhh....this is NOT the same team we've had over the last 4 years. We have no idea who they are or what they can do yet. They started with a clean slate as far as I am concerned.

This was no fluke...we did the same thing against the Clippers and now the Magic too. You don't get back to back to back fluke wins like that in the NBA. Just doesn't happen.