The Value of Tanking

[Dr Positivity]

Any way you can pull together similar stats for team wins within those 5 years?

[MEDIC]

We're kind of at the point where it's blatantly clear that the best option is to "tank". I'd rather use the term "young player development", which essentially = tanking.

- It is obvious that we simply don't have the talent to win. We are playing hard, but coming up short.
- Adding a player or two through trades, or use of the TPE is not going to get this team in the playoffs.
- We have veteran guys taking up minutes when the young guys could be developing.
- There is no way to attain a true franchise player other than through the draft.

I don't see the benefit of "tanking" as simply getting a high draft pick. I also see the benefit of going with a youth movement, developing player skills & designing plays for next year & the year after.

- Trading Reggie might net us a draft pick, but more importantly it allows Amir & Davis to get more playing experience.
- Trading Barbosa allow for more minutes for Weems, Derozan & Wright. (unfortunately he's injured)
- Giving guys like Alabi & Dorsey minutes now, helps down the road.

I think we have some young talent. It may not be A level talent, but it's talent. You develop these guys within the system & improve their skills, then add a top 3 pick, even next season we may not look so bad.

Guys like Amir & Derozan can score. They just need someone to make plays for them. Drafting a guy like Irving would instantly improve their games.

I don't believe in tanking for multiple years, but the best situation for this season is definitely to go with a youth movement.

[Weird Fishes]

Do you guys really think BC is going to sit around and watch this team lose? Hes going to blow things up and bring in players using the TPE to make the team better. Colangelo is not going to sit by and watch successive 25 win seasons.

This.

Nice analysis and combined with competent scouting (and a bit of luck) it's hard to argue with, but when it comes to the Raptors, Colangelo has made it clear he doesn't have the patience, so as long as he's the GM this is not going to happen.

[Morris_Shatford]

Okay, that's all well and good, but what do you propose the Raptors do instead of tanking?

We are not as bad of a team as we have convinced ourselves that we are;
So whats the alternative?

Use our assets wisely.
We are going to be a lottery team this season no matter who we add with the TPE or expirings, by the time teams are looking to unload some of their players we will be to far gone that no matter who we add we will be in the mix of a decent pick.

However we would be in the mix for a decent pick along with one or two respectably talent starters now on the roster.

I would sooner deal for one of the guys who normally become available during the course of a season who is locked in for a few more years then I would hope that we turn our potential 2012 capspace wisely.

[Abba Zabba]

Nice work Schad!

In general I agree with CentreCourt about tanking: unless the stars align it can end up hurting your organization more than helping it.

Please express yourself on how winning ~20 games this season would end up hurting the organization more then winning ~25, thanks.

When thinking back at the awful teams we have had, winning or losing afew more or afew less would have changed absolutely nothing (In terms of perception of the team, not lottery outcome).


The problem here is that the few people against it are arguing from the point of view that this team has a chance to do something (aka make the playoffs) or even come close to .500. That chance is non existent. What we are talking about is either picking somewhere around 4-10 or 1-3 (taking luck out of it and basing it on %s, arguing against probability is a waste of time).


I dont think the few that are bringing up an argument against tanking can honestly say down the road "Hey that wasnt so bad, that team went ahead and won 25 games, good thing we didnt tank and win afew less".

I said (or meant to express) that although as a general philosophy tanking for success over many seasons doesn't work for me, in our case this season we may as well do it (we're going to suck anyway). And given Schad's analysis we'd better tank hard.

Which is what you rebutted me with.

As for the general tanking argument: I and the rest of this board has been through it often enough with Cosmostein, Centre Court and timdunkit all expressing the position far better than I could in this very thread.

Not sure what you're all riled up about except poor reading comprehension.

[Dr Positivity]

I don't think we're 'tanking'... we just have a **** terrible talent level. We're clearly holding onto all our young players like Bargnani, Derozan, Amir, Sonny. If we had vets with value we'd try to trade them, they just don't. There's not much we can do to further tank. Colangelo needs to be fired, I mean look at what he had when he came on and look at what he has now. It's embarrasing and the team isn't making money anymore either so dump the guy after we finish with 15 Ws this year

I guess we could trade Bargnani, but I'm guessing we have the worst record in the league by the ASB anyways, so meh, what's the point. Might as well play out the string and see if he can average 22ppg+ consistently.

The real debate will be if we get a Tyreke Evans, Brandon Roy, Brook Lopez, etc. in the draft, let alone a Durant or Howard superstar, what to do after that. That's when things will get heated cause half the board will want to gun for bottom 5 picks and the others will look to build quicker

[Schad]

Again, perhaps I am being selfish.
However I would argue that going after the BPA with our expiring contracts and TPE would net us a similar result to being horrific for two seasons and hoping we end up with Barnes and lets say Austin Rivers and hoping that they are elite talent.

Not even close to the same. People really overvalue TPEs and expiring contracts. By their very nature, teams will only make those trades straight-up if they feel that the player's value (including their contract) is negative...otherwise, they wouldn't be trading them for nothing. We can get a pretty solid player, but we are so far away from being a solid player away; we might not even have a single player worthy of being an NBA starter on the roster.

If we do make a deal like that, we become the Knicks: perpetually thrashing around thinking that we're one move away from something, gleefully celebrating every time our last major failure is about to come off the books (at which point it's moved for another major failure), and eking out seasons in the 25-35 win range while adding negligibly to the talent base. We'd laugh at an expansion team that set their eyes on contending the next year, and so should we laugh at ourselves for believing that we can turn nothing assets and bench players into our ticket back.

[MEDIC]

Use our assets wisely.
We are going to be a lottery team this season no matter who we add with the TPE or expirings, by the time teams are looking to unload some of their players we will be to far gone that no matter who we add we will be in the mix of a decent pick.

However we would be in the mix for a decent pick along with one or two respectably talent starters now on the roster.

I would sooner deal for one of the guys who normally become available during the course of a season who is locked in for a few more years then I would hope that we turn our potential 2012 capspace wisely.

Maybe the best thing that we can hope for is for these guys to lose like hell the first half of the season (like........2 wins). Then trade the TPE/ expirings + Miami pick at the deadline for a decent player on a multiple year contract.

We add talent, but still end up with 15 wins at the end of the season.

[Landomar]

The Raptors have lost a lot of games over the years, but have had 2 short playoff stretches. As everyone knows, the first playoff stretch was led by Carter (4th pick essentially), and the second was led by Bosh (4th pick). These guys were both top 5 picks, and it makes sense to me that the data suggests top 5 picks are especially valuable.

There's no guaranteed that high draft picks will work out, and some teams are perenially horrible. All we can do, however, is hope that we find a franchise changing star somehow, or even better, multiple stars. For the Carter era, the balloon burst in a hurry, because Carter didn't have enough help; we lost McGrady, had traded away our other young players/picks, and our veteran role players were too old / just role players. For the Bosh era, we tried to bring in great young talent to help him, failed to get an impact guy (through bungling draft picks), and then tried to become good with just Bosh + role players. We all know what happened.

Anyway, right now, we're at the "find another Carter or Bosh" stage, and tanking is pretty much the only way for us to do it. If we do manage to get a player like that in the 2011 draft (which would be awesome, of course), hopefully we won't send that player in by themselves (essentially) when the team makes a playoff push for the third time. I'm going to be on the "keep tanking until we have a good enough foundation" train. It definately will get interesting here on realgm once that discussion gets going in the future.

[Ponchos]

I am all on board for tanking. My fear is that our team is better than it has showed so far, largely due to a rough starting schedule.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

No matter how many ping pong balls you get, the draft is a total crap shoot.

You could get the most ping pong balls and end up dropping 4-5 positions in the draft.

You could get first over all and end up with a weak draft class, no clear cut #1.

We could end up getting lucky, but the odds are greatly stacked against us walking away with a legit #1 player like Wall, Griffen etc. There is maybe one guy like this every two years on average, maybe longer.

BC will try to sell us on a 1-2 year turn around. However, most rebuilds take much longer, on average (4-6 yrs). It all depends on it we are tanking to build a playoff team or a championship team.

Hell, just look at the draft history of this franchise. We have only drafted one legit #1 player over 15 years T-Mac, maybe Vince (debatable)... After that they are just All-star callibre players at best. So, to think we are going to tank this year and walk away with a future hall of famer is a pipe dream for most fans.

[Reignman]

Okay, that's all well and good, but what do you propose the Raptors do instead of tanking?

We are not as bad of a team as we have convinced ourselves that we are; So whats the alternative?

Use our assets wisely.
We are going to be a lottery team this season no matter who we add with the TPE or expirings, by the time teams are looking to unload some of their players we will be to far gone that no matter who we add we will be in the mix of a decent pick.

However we would be in the mix for a decent pick along with one or two respectably talent starters now on the roster.

I would sooner deal for one of the guys who normally become available during the course of a season who is locked in for a few more years then I would hope that we turn our potential 2012 capspace wisely.

Actually, they are worse then I thought they'd be.

[Morris_Shatford]

The real debate will be if we get a Tyreke Evans, Brandon Roy, Brook Lopez, etc. in the draft, let alone a Durant or Howard superstar, what to do after that. That's when things will get heated cause half the board will want to gun for bottom 5 picks and the others will look to build quicker

That's the issue that MLSE is going to have to address.
Its easy to want to tank, but its hard to want to tank and have to pay 20k a season for side primes to watch the team tank.

I certainly won't renew this summer; and then I will be able to cheer on every loss with less personal "skin" in the equation.

The trouble is, if you experience a mass exodus of your lower bowl simply to end up with the proverbial Greg Oden & Michael Beasley who are the poster children for the right wrong pick at the upper end of drafts,

Then what?
Expect another three seasons of bad basketball followed by another rebuild?

[LLJ]

I don't think we're 'tanking'... we just have a **** terrible talent level. We're clearly holding onto all our young players like Bargnani, Derozan, Amir, Sonny.

After this season, that may no longer hold true!

[Alfred]

Okay, that's all well and good, but what do you propose the Raptors do instead of tanking?

We are not as bad of a team as we have convinced ourselves that we are;
So whats the alternative?

Use our assets wisely.

What are our assets? Are you really that excited about any of our assets other than our first rounder?

[C Court]

Right now the Raptors have no choice but to move forward with tanking. It is likely their best option.

That said, it still doesn't guarantee success. Just look at the Grizzlies as another team with multiple lottery picks that is trapped in a cycle of ongoing mediocrity.

[Morris_Shatford]

Okay, that's all well and good, but what do you propose the Raptors do instead of tanking?

We are not as bad of a team as we have convinced ourselves that we are; So whats the alternative?

Use our assets wisely.
We are going to be a lottery team this season no matter who we add with the TPE or expirings, by the time teams are looking to unload some of their players we will be to far gone that no matter who we add we will be in the mix of a decent pick.

However we would be in the mix for a decent pick along with one or two respectably talent starters now on the roster.

I would sooner deal for one of the guys who normally become available during the course of a season who is locked in for a few more years then I would hope that we turn our potential 2012 capspace wisely.

Actually, they are worse then I thought they'd be.

I had us pegged @ 2 - 6 at this point in the season,
Wins against Cleveland and Sacramento.

I also expected us to lose by no less then a margin of 20 over the last five games.

Did anyone really have us at 3 - 5 or 4 -4 at this point after they saw the schedule?

Did we have any expectation they would be better then 4 - 13 or 6 - 11 by the end of November?

[Dr Positivity]

I think we need a change in philosophy, but it's not to 'tank harder'. We need to build a team with size inside and rebounding first and foremost, that's usually a constant on winning teams. Offensively we need strong guard play. Post handcheck rules they've dominated the league. The good news is lots of borderline all-star guards have come out of the draft lately and I don't think it's a coincidence. It's just impossible to guard perimeter players these guys.

I like Portland's model, but not because they're built entirely through the draft. Portland is built on

- A star guard
- Best combined Orb/TOV% team in the league. So good that in 2009 they ranked 1st in ORTG despite being out of the top 10 as a from the field scoring team. They dominate the little things
- Size inside
- High bball IQ in general

One other thing I'd like to stress is coaching consistency. I know a lot of people get on Triano, I'm not going to pretend he's some awesome coach. But one of the reasons teams like Detroit, Philly, Minnesota are such disasters is they rifle through coaches so fast. Meanwhile Atlanta had Woodson for like 6 years and it helped them grow together

We need a culture of defense and little things once we get our star player. That's not for a while, but when we do...

[Morris_Shatford]

Okay, that's all well and good, but what do you propose the Raptors do instead of tanking?

We are not as bad of a team as we have convinced ourselves that we are;
So whats the alternative?

Use our assets wisely.

What are our assets? Are you really that excited about any of our assets other than our first rounder?

How many players have been moved over the last five years for salary relief and menial assets?
We have the means to facilitate 30m dollars in salary off teams rosters this season, that is an asset I am excited about.

[Ted Lasso]

For what it's worth, front office competence is not a constant. Some organizations are run poorly so they might suck regardless of how long and how well they've been tanking.