The Value of Tanking

[Schad]

quote]

I had us pegged @ 2 - 6 at this point in the season,
Wins against Cleveland and Sacramento.

I also expected us to lose by no less then a margin of 20 over the last five games.

Did anyone really have us at 3 - 5 or 4 -4 at this point after they saw the schedule?

Did we have any expectation they would be better then 4 - 13 or 6 - 11 by the end of November?

But that's the thing...if you have us pegged at around 4-13 through November, you're implicitly agreeing that we are a very bad team. Yes, we have played and will play some good teams, but we'll also have played Cleveland (without two of their three best players), New York, Sacramento, Golden State, Charlotte, Washington, and Philadelphia twice. It only looks like a somewhat more difficult schedule because we're really, truly awful...every team looks like a challenge to us, and thus far, every team has been.

[C Court]

Its easy to want to tank, but its hard to want to tank and have to pay 20k a season for side primes to watch the team tank.

I certainly won't renew this summer; and then I will be able to cheer on every loss with less personal "skin" in the equation.

The trouble is, if you experience a mass exodus of your lower bowl simply to end up with the proverbial Greg Oden & Michael Beasley who are the poster children for the right wrong pick at the upper end of drafts,

Then what?
Expect another three seasons of bad basketball followed by another rebuild?

Great post. I feel your pain!

I held on to my lower bowl side prime seasons tickets through the Babcock years in hope that the future would be brighter. Thank goodness I dumped my tickets well before this season or I'd be very pissed.

What's interesting is now that I no longer own seasons I have no desire to buy them again - even if the Raptors turn around their fortunes.

[Schad]

How many players have been moved over the last five years for salary relief and menial assets?
We have the means to facilitate 30m dollars in salary off teams rosters this season, that is an asset I am excited about.

Generally those trades have either been for older players on big contracts, or guys with serious injury concerns. Is that what we want?

[Alfred]

We are not as bad of a team as we have convinced ourselves that we are;
So whats the alternative?

Use our assets wisely.

What are our assets? Are you really that excited about any of our assets other than our first rounder?

How many players have been moved over the last five years for salary relief and menial assets?
We have the means to facilitate 30m dollars in salary off teams rosters this season, that is an asset I am excited about.

So who would you target with the TPE?

[Morris_Shatford]

quote]

I had us pegged @ 2 - 6 at this point in the season,
Wins against Cleveland and Sacramento.

I also expected us to lose by no less then a margin of 20 over the last five games.

Did anyone really have us at 3 - 5 or 4 -4 at this point after they saw the schedule?

Did we have any expectation they would be better then 4 - 13 or 6 - 11 by the end of November?

But that's the thing...if you have us pegged at around 4-13 through November, you're implicitly agreeing that we are a very bad team. Yes, we have played and will play some good teams, but we'll also have played Cleveland (without two of their three best players), New York, Sacramento, Golden State, Charlotte, Washington, and Philadelphia twice. It only looks like a somewhat more difficult schedule because we're really, truly awful...every team looks like a challenge to us, and thus far, every team has been.

There is a difference between a team like the Knicks were, that were so dysfunctional and broken no matter how many picks you gave to the Chicago Bulls you were still horrific, and a team that simply doesn't have a filled out roster.

We are a bad team;
But this roster (or some of it) is not beyond salvaging.

[Schad]

There is a difference between a team like the Knicks were, that were so dysfunctional and broken no matter how many picks you gave to the Chicago Bulls you were still horrific, and a team that simply doesn't have a filled out roster.

We are a bad team;
But this roster (or some of it) is not beyond salvaging.

There's no one on the team that you can look at and say "yeah, they'll be a core piece when we're good". I like a couple of our players, but none of them have done anything that leaves me with any confidence that they'll be starters in two or three years. We basically have a blank- slate roster with a couple youngish question marks and a bunch of transients.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I went back 12 years and did a crude study. These are semifinalists that were awful enough at one point to get a top 3 pick, and used that pick to build that team into something great. I did this quickly without much use of resources, so I may be have left some teams out.

2010: Orlando
2009: Denver, Cleveland, Orlando
2008: San Antonio
2007: San Antonio, Cleveland, Utah
2006: None
2005: San Antonio
2004: None
2003: Spurs, Nets
2002: Nets
2001: Spurs, Bucks, Sixers
2000: Knicks, Pacers
1999: Knicks, Spurs, Pacers

[Morris_Shatford]

How many players have been moved over the last five years for salary relief and menial assets?
We have the means to facilitate 30m dollars in salary off teams rosters this season, that is an asset I am excited about.

Generally those trades have either been for older players on big contracts, or guys with serious injury concerns. Is that what we want?

Lets look at the guys who's names have made the rounds this season;
Josh Smith, Kevin Love, Andre Iguodala,

Iggy is the old man in the bunch @ 26 (?)

And we haven't even past the point of no return yet where teams potentially like Denver, Phoenix, and Houston (or other teams at or near the tax) have realized that they won't make the playoffs.

We can accommodate any numbers of transactions to move player X to team Y and getting something out of the deal for us,

[Dr Positivity]

There is a difference between a team like the Knicks were, that were so dysfunctional and broken no matter how many picks you gave to the Chicago Bulls you were still horrific, and a team that simply doesn't have a filled out roster.

We are a bad team;
But this roster (or some of it) is not beyond salvaging.

There's no one on the team that you can look at and say "yeah, they'll be a core piece when we're good". I like a couple of our players, but none of them have done anything that leaves me with any confidence that they'll be starters in two or three years. We basically have a blank- slate roster with a couple youngish question marks and a bunch of transients.

And really, this is why Colangelo should be fired. This team has nothing.

[Morris_Shatford]

So who would you target with the TPE?

I guess that depends on who becomes available?
There is always a place for a team to facilitate transactions and add better players in the process.

[Rhettmatic]

I went back 12 years and did a crude study. These are semifinalists that were awful enough at one point to get a top 3 pick, and used that pick to build that team into something great. I did this quickly without much use of resources, so I may be have left some teams out.

2010: Orlando
2009: Denver, Cleveland, Orlando
2008: San Antonio
2007: San Antonio, Cleveland, Utah
2006: None
2005: San Antonio
2004: None
2003: Spurs, Nets
2002: Nets
2001: Spurs, Bucks, Sixers
2000: Knicks, Pacers
1999: Knicks, Spurs, Pacers

If you don't want to include Boston, you would need to re-word your criteria. They were awful enough for a top 3 pick in 2007, they simply were unlucky in the lottery. Still, their tanking allowed them to acquire Ray Allen. So if we're looking at the rewards of tanking, they should be in the discussion, no?

[Alfred]

So who would you target with the TPE?

I guess that depends on who becomes available?
There is always a place for a team to facilitate transactions and add better players in the process.

The players that usually are traded for expirings and TPEs are old-ish roleplayers with big contracts.

[Morris_Shatford]

There is a difference between a team like the Knicks were, that were so dysfunctional and broken no matter how many picks you gave to the Chicago Bulls you were still horrific, and a team that simply doesn't have a filled out roster.

We are a bad team;
But this roster (or some of it) is not beyond salvaging.

There's no one on the team that you can look at and say "yeah, they'll be a core piece when we're good". I like a couple of our players, but none of them have done anything that leaves me with any confidence that they'll be starters in two or three years. We basically have a blank- slate roster with a couple youngish question marks and a bunch of transients.

Neither of us can be correct in either of our assessments.
We just don't know.

Is Bargnani beside a brooding five and a slashing defensive oriented 2/3 a better player?
Is DeRozan beside a dynamic PG and brooding five a better player?
Is Ed Davis at 100% beside a scoring center and a strong go to the basket three a good player?

I think there is some tread on these tires, you don't.

Lets put a pin in that;
We can debate it over beers in a few years.

[Rhettmatic]

Lets look at the guys who's names have made the rounds this season;
Josh Smith, Kevin Love, Andre Iguodala,

I'll be exceptionally surprised if Josh Smith or Kevin Love is moved for a TPE or expiring contracts. Like, flabbergasted. It just is not going to happen. I doubt either even gets moved.

And last I heard, Philadelphia's asking price for Iguodala was much higher than what we'd be offering too, unless you want to include our pick, which would be a horrible, horrible, horrible decision IMO.

[Schad]

Lets look at the guys who's names have made the rounds this season;
Josh Smith, Kevin Love, Andre Iguodala,

Josh Smith and Kevin Love are not going to be salary-dumped. Just. Not. Going. To. Happen. Atlanta and Minny are going to want serious value, and we don't have anything close to the asking price...unless we trade our 1st rounder unprotected, in which case we deserve to suck for the rest of eternity.

Iggy is the old man in the bunch @ 26 (?)

Iggy has also regressed for three consecutive seasons.

And we haven't even past the point of no return yet where teams potentially like Denver, Phoenix, and Houston (or other teams at or near the tax) have realized that they won't make the playoffs.

But none of those teams have any young, good players. They aren't going to make the playoffs because they're getting old or otherwise breaking down, and have overpaid players. We should not want these things.

We can accommodate any numbers of transactions to move player X to team Y and getting something out of the deal for us,

Yes, and I would like us to make those trades. But they're always incremental...the facilitating team in a three-team trade doesn't end up with a star, they end up with a low 1st or some cash for their troubles.

[Morris_Shatford]

So who would you target with the TPE?

I guess that depends on who becomes available?
There is always a place for a team to facilitate transactions and add better players in the process.

The players that usually are traded for expirings and TPEs are old-ish roleplayers with big contracts.

In theory;
If Josh Smith is moved, what sort of return will the Hawks want?
How about Kevin Love, Iggy, Ben Gordon etc?

I am not saying we target the above players; however I am arguing we have the assets to land a solid player.

[Dr Positivity]

Iggy won't get any more than Kevin Martin did, which is not much. I wouldn't trade for him anyways. Expensive coach killer. Would rather keep sucking.

Josh Smith is awesome but would take our pick to get him. Same with KLove

[Morris_Shatford]

Its easy to want to tank, but its hard to want to tank and have to pay 20k a season for side primes to watch the team tank.

I certainly won't renew this summer; and then I will be able to cheer on every loss with less personal "skin" in the equation.

The trouble is, if you experience a mass exodus of your lower bowl simply to end up with the proverbial Greg Oden & Michael Beasley who are the poster children for the right wrong pick at the upper end of drafts,

Then what?
Expect another three seasons of bad basketball followed by another rebuild?

Great post. I feel your pain!

I held on to my lower bowl side prime seasons tickets through the Babcock years in hope that the future would be brighter. Thank goodness I dumped my tickets well before this season or I'd be very pissed.

What's interesting is now that I no longer own seasons I have no desire to buy them again - even if the Raptors turn around their fortunes.

The last part is what worries me the most;
After trading of Vince the folks who sat beside me and behind me walked away from their PSL's.

When we looked pretty interesting after 2006/07 they said basically the same thing as you, no desire or interest to get back in.

We can debate the "basketball" aspect of this all we want;
If MLSE isn't making money on the Raps, they won't spend the money to make us better.

The more "rebuilds" we go through, the more fans we lose.
This isn't Boston, New York, or LA where basketball is king.
How many fans show up for the Jays to watch that exciting and dynamic roster?
Is it even 15,000 anymore?

We can't keep jerking around the paying customers, and then be surprised when they don't come back.

[Schad]

Neither of us can be correct in either of our assessments.
We just don't know.

Is Bargnani beside a brooding five and a slashing defensive oriented 2/3 a better player?
Is DeRozan beside a dynamic PG and brooding five a better player?
Is Ed Davis at 100% beside a scoring center and a strong go to the basket three a good player?

I think there is some tread on these tires, you don't.

Lets put a pin in that;
We can debate it over beers in a few years.

But there's the problem. The players that you're describing as if they were complements would be the best two or three guys on the team, and we don't really have any means of getting them unless we're going after cheap imitations.

[Morris_Shatford]

Iggy won't get any more than Kevin Martin did, which is not much. I wouldn't trade for him anyways. Expensive coach killer. Would rather keep sucking.

Josh Smith is awesome but would take our pick to get him. Same with KLove

Iggy, I have no idea what my thoughts are on him anymore. the balance however...

Lets say in theory you are the Hawks; and you are looking to move Smith.
I would imagine that if you move him in an ideal world you move him with the intention of landing a five so you can move Horford to the four, as well as adding a prospect to the mix, and perhaps a pick.

Do they move Smith for the TPE and a 2012 first? then add Davis in a second deal?
Do they negate the need for the pick if we take Williams contract in exchange for shorter or expiring deals?

In the case of Love, I have no idea.
I think its completely possible to retain the 2011 pick and still make a reasonable offer if that is the type of player you want.