Andray Blatche - Resurgence Thread ( Merged )

[Ruzious]

Here are the top 24 PF's who have played at least 2000 minutes, ranked by PER. I've also included Blatche's numbers for the 2nd half of the seaon only.

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO  TS%  PER  MIN
bosh,chris      24.0 10.8  2.4  0.6  1.0  2.4 .592 25.0 36.1
nowitzki,dirk   25.0  7.7  2.7  0.9  1.0  1.8 .578 23.0 37.5
gasol,pau       18.3 11.3  3.4  0.6  1.7  2.2 .593 22.8 37.0
stoudemire,amar 23.1  8.9  1.0  0.6  1.0  2.6 .615 22.5 34.6
boozer,carlos   19.5 11.2  3.2  1.1  0.5  2.7 .599 21.1 34.2
randolph,zach   20.8 11.7  1.8  1.0  0.4  2.1 .546 21.0 37.7
smith,josh      15.7  8.7  4.2  1.6  2.1  2.4 .536 21.0 35.5
blatche,andray  19.7  7.6  3.0  1.3  0.8  2.9 .530 19.5 33.6
garnett,kevin   14.3  7.3  2.7  1.0  0.8  1.5 .569 19.4 29.9
landry,carl     16.8  5.9  0.8  0.7  0.8  1.7 .600 19.2 30.8
west,david      19.0  7.5  3.0  0.9  0.7  2.1 .560 19.0 36.4
aldridge,lamarc 17.9  8.0  2.1  0.9  0.6  1.3 .535 18.4 37.4
murphy,troy     14.6 10.2  2.1  1.0  0.5  1.4 .585 18.1 32.6
scola,luis      16.2  8.6  2.1  0.8  0.3  2.0 .550 17.3 32.6
harrington,al   17.7  5.6  1.5  0.9  0.3  1.8 .546 16.8 30.4
jamison,antawn  18.7  8.4  1.3  1.1  0.3  1.4 .529 16.8 36.5
millsap,paul    11.6  6.8  1.6  0.8  1.2  1.4 .573 16.5 27.7
beasley,michael 14.8  6.4  1.3  1.0  0.6  1.7 .505 16.2 29.8
odom,lamar      10.8  9.8  3.3  0.9  0.7  1.8 .533 15.9 31.5
brand,elton     13.1  6.1  1.4  1.1  1.1  1.7 .518 15.7 30.2
haslem,udonis    9.9  8.1  0.7  0.4  0.3  1.0 .538 14.6 28.0
thompson,jason  12.5  8.5  1.7  0.5  1.0  1.9 .518 14.6 31.4
jerebko,jonas    9.3  6.0  0.7  1.0  0.4  1.0 .545 14.1 27.9
lewis,rashard   14.1  4.4  1.5  1.1  0.4  1.5 .573 13.9 32.8
diaw,boris      11.3  5.2  4.0  0.7  0.7  2.2 .552 12.7 35.4

Here are the numbers on a pace-adjusted per-36 basis:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
bosh,chris      23.8 10.7  2.3  0.6  1.0  2.4 .522 .592 25.0
nowitzki,dirk   24.1  7.4  2.6  0.8  0.9  1.8 .498 .578 23.0
gasol,pau       17.7 10.9  3.2  0.5  1.7  2.1 .536 .593 22.8
stoudemire,amar 23.2  9.0  1.0  0.6  1.0  2.6 .557 .615 22.5
boozer,carlos   20.0 11.5  3.3  1.1  0.5  2.8 .562 .599 21.1
randolph,zach   19.5 11.0  1.7  0.9  0.4  2.0 .494 .546 21.0
smith,josh      16.4  9.1  4.4  1.7  2.2  2.6 .505 .536 21.0
blatche,andray  21.1  8.1  3.2  1.4  0.8  3.1 .496 .530 19.5
garnett,kevin   17.5  8.9  3.3  1.2  1.0  1.8 .521 .569 19.4
landry,carl     19.4  6.7  1.0  0.8  0.9  2.0 .537 .600 19.2
west,david      19.0  7.4  2.9  0.9  0.7  2.1 .508 .560 19.0
aldridge,lamarc 18.2  8.2  2.1  0.9  0.6  1.4 .497 .535 18.4
murphy,troy     15.5 10.9  2.2  1.1  0.5  1.5 .551 .585 18.1
scola,luis      17.7  9.4  2.3  0.8  0.3  2.2 .514 .550 17.3
harrington,al   20.8  6.6  1.8  1.0  0.4  2.2 .503 .546 16.8
jamison,antawn  18.6  8.4  1.3  1.1  0.3  1.4 .502 .529 16.8
millsap,paul    14.7  8.6  2.0  1.0  1.5  1.8 .538 .573 16.5
beasley,michael 18.6  8.0  1.6  1.3  0.8  2.1 .463 .505 16.2
odom,lamar      12.2 11.1  3.7  1.0  0.8  2.1 .502 .533 15.9
brand,elton     15.9  7.3  1.8  1.3  1.3  2.1 .480 .518 15.7
haslem,udonis   13.2 10.8  0.9  0.5  0.4  1.3 .494 .538 14.6
thompson,jason  14.2  9.6  1.9  0.6  1.1  2.1 .473 .518 14.6
jerebko,jonas   12.6  8.1  1.0  1.3  0.5  1.4 .511 .545 14.1
lewis,rashard   15.4  4.8  1.6  1.2  0.4  1.6 .539 .573 13.9
diaw,boris      11.7  5.4  4.1  0.8  0.7  2.2 .525 .552 12.7

Is that just for 2009/2010 for everyone? I assume so - since Love isn't there - because he was out with an injury for 20 or so games and did play over 2,000 minutes in his rookie year.

[montestewart]

jumping in late on the triple double discussion, but i don't see it as a big deal. closing seconds, 1 board away from 20G's (guessing) in bonus money during a lost season. I'd probably go so far as to bribe Yi for a rebound. it's all about the benjamins. i didn't think ricky davis's stunt was a big deal either. IT'S JUST A GAME! putting these guys to a bushido-like code of honor is ridiculous. of course, this is coming from a guy who routinely stole TP from bathrooms in college.

You have a common-good argument there that mitigates the full effect of the theft label.

Blatche looked weird trying to get that last board, but his misguided (or maybe greedy) enthusiasm was nothing compared to some of the cheap shots I've seen thrown on court over the years, or compared to certain stat padders I've watched that are so chronic that often there seems little else to their games.

[Hoopalotta]

In looking over the Larry Coon CBA in thinking about a Dray Blatche extension, I see that Dray is eligible for an extension this summer.

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q51

Contracts for fewer than four seasons may not be extended. Longer contracts can be extended under certain circumstances:

Type of contract - Four or five seasons (Dray's was five years)
When signed - Any
Can be extended - Three years after contract signed (that's now)

Also, I came across this....

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q52

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or renegotiation that increased any season's salary by more than 8%. Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year. Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap. Raises in subsequent years are limited to 10.5% of the salary in the first renegotiated season. The renegotiation may not contain a signing bonus. Contracts cannot be renegotiated downward (players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create salary cap room for the team) or to contain fewer seasons.

So, in the interests of spurring discussion and eliciting multiple negative responses that call me out as being dunderheaded, I was wondering about the utility of renegotiating 'Dray's deal for the sake of long term wiggleability.

Suppose we don't renegotiate and offer an extension, which as of now, would be a maximum of three years:

2011 - $3,260,331
2012 - $3,520,661
2013 - Extension Year 1
2014 - Extension Year 2
2015 - Extension Year 3

The question is of course “what are the extension years paying out?”

Conservatively, if 'Dray was feeling risk averse, we'd maybe be looking at $36-40 million out over those three years, though it may be more than that.

We don't really know, but lets' just plug that in at a flat rate:

2011 - $3,260,331
2012 - $3,520,661 (lockout?)
2013 - $13,000,000
2014 - $13,000,000
2015 - $13,000,000

Total = $45,780,992

Here's what that same money would look like under a renegotiation with a declining salary of 10.5% per year, which I think is the maximum rate allowed:

2011 - $11,291,171
2012 - $10,105,598 (lockout?)
2013 - $9,044,510
2014 - $8,094,837
2015 - $7,244,879

Total = $45,780,995 (this figure might need to be higher than the extension total to cover the higher lockout losses)

That would not work very well from the perspective of signing free agents, being more of a build from within approach, but it would work very well from creating a sustainable payroll structure that won't see us implode in the last two years of Gil's deal (an eventuality entirely overlooked by those calling for us to sign a max guy this summer). Remember, we'll be extending Mcgee for the 2013 season unless we trade him (which I don't like).

But suppose that we signed Livingston for around $4.5 million in 2012 money and either finished either as the 8th seed or just outside of the playoffs with a draft pick cap hold of about $1.6 million (for 2012 again). In that case, we'd still have over $10 million to sign free agents from the 2011 class, which would probably work for Perkins (though we'd better get some hits in this draft as Thornton and Young are getting renounced to have the $10 million). If Hortford, Noah and Gasol aren't going to be available anyway, that doesn't hurt so much.

We'd have about that same $10 million still available this summer after signing Livingston too, so a 'Bring Out Your Dead' for a draft pick now would make things even more comfortable going forward.

I wouldn't expect that Dray would drop off as far as effort with a new contract, though others might make that case. But I do think it's safe to say that there will be pressure to work an extension before the new CBA from Dray's side.

Well, I expect the idea will get thrashed mightily, but it could work if we planned to 'build from within' keeping us under the tax in 2013-15. Not being a big free agent guy, I kind of like it in theory.

[verbal8]

In looking over the Larry Coon CBA in thinking about a Dray Blatche extension, I see that Dray is eligible for an extension this summer.

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q51

Contracts for fewer than four seasons may not be extended. Longer contracts can be extended under certain circumstances:

Type of contract - Four or five seasons (Dray's was five years)
When signed - Any
Can be extended - Three years after contract signed (that's now)

Also, I came across this....

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q52

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or renegotiation that increased any season's salary by more than 8%. Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year. Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap. Raises in subsequent years are limited to 10.5% of the salary in the first renegotiated season. The renegotiation may not contain a signing bonus. Contracts cannot be renegotiated downward (players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create salary cap room for the team) or to contain fewer seasons.

So, in the interests of spurring discussion and eliciting multiple negative responses that call me out as being dunderheaded, I was wondering about the utility of renegotiating 'Dray's deal for the sake of long term wiggleability.

Suppose we don't renegotiate and offer an extension, which as of now, would be a maximum of three years:

2011 - $3,260,331
2012 - $3,520,661
2013 - Extension Year 1
2014 - Extension Year 2
2015 - Extension Year 3

The question is of course “what are the extension years paying out?”

Conservatively, if 'Dray was feeling risk averse, we'd maybe be looking at $36-40 million out over those three years, though it may be more than that.

We don't really know, but lets' just plug that in at a flat rate:

2011 - $3,260,331
2012 - $3,520,661 (lockout?)
2013 - $13,000,000
2014 - $13,000,000
2015 - $13,000,000

Total = $45,780,992

Here's what that same money would look like under a renegotiation with a declining salary of 10.5% per year, which I think is the maximum rate allowed:

2011 - $11,291,171
2012 - $10,105,598 (lockout?)
2013 - $9,044,510
2014 - $8,094,837
2015 - $7,244,879

Total = $45,780,995 (this figure might need to be higher than the extension total to cover the higher lockout losses)

I think it slightly overpays Blatche this season, but he ends up being a bargain at the end of the deal. I would probably tweak the deal slightly to peak in 2012 and then decline from there. That reduces the impact a little to 2011 cap space.

[closg00]

Oh-well, AB didn't get the MIP this-year, no surprise considering he didn't get his run until mid-season.

[nate33]

We don't really know, but lets' just plug that in at a flat rate:

2011 - $3,260,331
2012 - $3,520,661 (lockout?)
2013 - $13,000,000
2014 - $13,000,000
2015 - $13,000,000

Total = $45,780,992

Here's what that same money would look like under a renegotiation with a declining salary of 10.5% per year, which I think is the maximum rate allowed:

2011 - $11,291,171
2012 - $10,105,598 (lockout?)
2013 - $9,044,510
2014 - $8,094,837
2015 - $7,244,879

That's a very interesting topic for discussion. I think it's premature to assume that Blatche will merit a $13M per year extension in two years. $13M might be pretty darn close to max money after the new CBA. I wouldn't work out a deal that benefits his long-term security unless he came down from that figure a bit.

That said, I really like the premise here. If Blatche would agree that he is worth, say, $10M a year in 2013, then maybe we could work something out. Assuming a 3-year extension at $10M a year, Blatche would be paid $36.78M over the next 5 years. Give him a descending contract worth $37M right now, and it would look something like this:

2011 - $9,300,000
2012 - $8,323,500
2013 - $7,347,000
2014 - $6,370,500
2015 - $5,394,000

In Summer 2011, we'd have Arenas, Blatche, McGee and Livingston (at, let's say $5M) on the payroll, plus our 3 2010 draft picks and our 2011 pick (assume #12). We'd be left with $16M in cap space, minus whatever we wanted to pay Young, Singleton and/or Thornton.

[Hoopalotta]

Yeah, $13 million might be overzealous.

Two factors that Blatche's agent would consider would be that:

A) money now is better than money two-three years from now from an investment perspective.
B) However, it would stink to have the second highest paid year of a declining deal potentially diminished by the lockout.

I'm sure that would factor into the negotiations.

I particularly like the renegotiation in conjunction with a BOYD deal to get something like the Hornets pick (probably with one of our late picks going out, as four rookies is a bit much). That would establish a very nice and sustainable financial foundation, but with the caveat that we need to draft well in order to improve as we'd hope.

[dlts20]

Here is what Wood told Lee about Dray:

I was in Dallas earlier this week and I asked Haywood about Blatche's development in the second half of the season. Haywood said, "It's crazy, because me and one of my good friends, we argue about Dray all the time. I always tell him, 'This boy has all-star potential. And he always told me, 'I don't see it.' I said, 'I'm telling you what I see every day.' "

"If you look at Dray's skill set. A guy that's 6-11; can push the ball the length of the court, get his own shot off the dribble; shoot a spot up trey; has a midrange game; a post game; and can be a great weak-side defender," Haywood said. "I said, there is really not another guy in the league like him.' I'm like, maybe he Dirk, but he's just polished. But a true guard handle, there is no else out there like Dray. That's why I knew he could be successful. I knew he could do it. I'm glad he showed the league what he can do. I sent him some very encouraging text messages. My whole thing for him, is 'Boy please just stay out of trouble.' That's all I want to him do."
---------------------------------------------------




Im glad to see Wood showing Dray the love and then kicking some wisdom at the end. I still think he's better with the young guys than AJ.

[cdouglas]

In Andray, you get a full package! The guy is also a great passer!! I hope we can lure Haywood back in a Wiz's uniform during the summer.

[hands11]

No MIP for you. Come back..

One year.


NEXT

[LyricalRico]

No MIP for you. Come back..

One year.


NEXT

[hands11]

Dray coming into the same form he ended last season.
This was a concern for some ( not me )

A look at Drays numbers though 7 games after coming off a foot injury over the summer which had him starting the season rusty and out of shape.

http://espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2746


His first game was his worst. He scored only 6

November average ( doesn't include his first two games)

20 pts 9.8 rebounds 2 assist 1.8 steals. 923 FT % FT percentage is huge is he can draw fouls. He is averaging about 4 FTs a game. Not bad.

His FG % is a little low at .433 when .470 is his average the last three years so I expect his to either score more or score more efficient.

Dray is damn close to averaging 20 and 10 and he is still getting back into shape and has had very little reliable help around him. And he is only 24 and he is signed long term

So do you dare to dream ?

Dray balln at 20 and 10
Gil returning to form and busting 3s and dishing while also playing D. Yes, Gil playing D
Wall getting back to his 10 Fts a game while dishing 10 assists and playing D and adding range
AT and Howard giving up solid play at SF. Big Country has stepped it up so far.
Kirk as the solid locker room guy and insurance at PG and SG who can get hot some nights

It's only 6 players and there is no center there but that is a solid group of vets as the core. Plus Wall

If McGee ever gets his head out of his rear end and learns to play position D over trying to block everything and worrying about his highlight reel, his could be interesting because that would by us the time to develop Armstrong and Seraphin as back ups leading up to the trade deadline where we could get some help.

There is still a chance this team to be really interesting this year. It has only been 7 games and I believe the losses are masking some of the better news once you consider the facts of Dray and Gil returning rusty after injuries and we don't even have Howard yet.

Hmmmm

[Hoopalotta]

Oh, by the way, guess who's putting up the second most field goal attempts at the rim in the entire NBA?

Your very own, ANDRAY BLATCHE! Blatche! Blatche!

http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx



7.1 attempts a game. He just gets into position off the ball to where you've just got to pass it to him and then he can get in there on his own with his handles too. That'll do it.

That's on .58% shooting, which isn't great for a big, but it's obvious that the guy can't jump yet (easy enough to see when watching the game, but also compare his blocked shots this year to last).

Thing is, he's not getting to the line nearly enough and he's only at .36% on his long jumpers, so the TS% is still rather raunchy tail.

But, he's taking it inside, baby - operation "big butt in the lane" is a go and the rest'll come.

Hmmm, looking up there in this thread, I see my post on the renegotiation. I was thinking $13 million, which was, uh, a bit high.

$13 bloody million? What in the world was I thinking?

But it's well into the ole 'yes please!' at $9 million per on those extension years.

[hands11]

Dray, for all his slender upper body, does have some rump and thighs to box out with.

As for your high estimate on the Salary, just remember the board montra....

EG SUCKS AND DOES NOTHING RIGHT.

Well, Ted and EG now.

[Wizards2Lottery]

That picture was completely unnecessary.

[no D in Hibachi]

That picture was completely unnecessary.

+1000

[gesa2]

Not to hit a man when he's down with a bad knee or anything, but how about this quote from David Thorpe in his chat today:

Ben (NYC)


Is Blatche ever going to figure out he should hit the glass?

David Thorpe (12:47 PM)


Honestly, he's the laziest great talent guy in the league. The single worst defensive player I've seen so far this year, but extremely hard to guard on offense.

He did say that he thinks Wall will be second only to Chris Paul in 5 years, so it's not blanket Wiz hate. I actually have more probs with Blatche on Offense, drifting out on the perimeter, than I do on D.

[Nivek]

I respect David Thorpe a lot, but I think in some ways, he has Blatche reversed. Blatche IS a lazy defender. He's effective when he decides to get involved, but he's not active in help D, and that hurts the team defense. On offense, I know what Thorpe means when he says Blatche is tough to defend -- Dray does have a ton of moves and he can shoot the ball. And, while his scoring totals are often impressive, his inefficiency ends up hurting his team a lot. For all his ability, Blatche shoots a low percentage, doesn't pass as effectively as he should, and commits too many turnovers. His shot selection may not be the worst I've ever seen, but you can see "worst" from where he ranks.

[WizarDynasty]

Blatche's inefficiency is due to the fact that his team mates have a hard time figuring out where they are suppose to be when a blatche is double teamed. The real problem is our team has a poor understanding of weaknesses blatche creates in an opponents defense when he is double teamed and they are slow to respond.
nearly all of the wizards from last season can't instantaneously respond to the weaknesses caused when Blatche is double teamed. if they do, they can't take advantage of the weakness in the defense. The biggest culprit is Thornton who rotates out on the perimeter and thornton's man leaves him wide open to go down and double Blatche with no repercussions. This is one of the reason that Thornton is really a bench player.
i don't think we will have that problem if howard comes back healthy.
Blatche's efficiency immediately skyrockets because opponents will be much more worried about getting burned by Howard for the three.
Right now, wizards most of the time are playing 5 on 4 because thornton has alot of the same problems that Dmac has. Not a threat really from the perimeter and no good at drawing fouls going into the paint. Wizards are used to this inefficiency from the small forward spot because we suffered the same problems with Caron Butler. Those few games with Howard at small forward..even though he is slight in frame, the wizards were at their best. Having a two way 3 point threat at the small forward spot that can shot block...(all dimensions Howard possesses) is a very difficult to find. Howard is just at the end of his career and extremely injury prone. maybe we can grab Prince from Philadelphia during free agency.

[Nivek]

Blatche's ineffiency has nothing to do with his teammates. His efficiency has been almost identical each year of his career regardless of who his teammates are. Blatche's efficiency is related to his own decision making on the floor.