Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[RickRoll_inDC]

Don't get me wrong. I LOVE draft time. But right now is not quite draft talk time


As for one guy though- I, for one, am a little concerned about how good Harrison Barnes really is going to be.

He played for Ames High School about an hour away from where I am. They won the 4A Iowa state championship. I went and saw him play and wasn't that impressed. He didn't seem to have that good of ball handling skills or much range on his shot.

IMO, if you're the #1 recruit in the country, going to play at UNC, and are supposed to be the #1 pick in the draft the next year, you shouldn't be barely winning the IOWA state championship. Iowa basketball is really really bad.

[closg00]

I bet our scouts will be monitoring these guys.
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketb ... rts-103010

[fishercob]

Firstly, I don't think we're going to have a season-long lockout. I don't think the players union has close to that kind of staying power. The last NBA lockout still allowed for a truncated season, and it didn't seem to keep any big talent from entering the '98 draft (Dirk, Pierce, Carter, Jamison, Bibby).

I actually highly doubt we're going to see a lot of guys forgo the draft (who would otherwise come out) because of the lockout. If they go back to school, they're still risking injury and ultimately their livelihood.

And yes, we've seen Brandon Jennings and Josh Childress, but those guys are exceptions as opposed to the rule. I don't think your typical 19 year old American with NBA skills is jumping to go abroad. Plus, any American that goes abroad during a lockout would need a contract allowing them to return home as soon as it's resolved and I think foreign teams will be (understandably) reticent to give that type of flexibility.

I think the draft will be "normal" and we'll have a high pick

[doclinkin]

And yes, we've seen Brandon Jennings and Josh Childress, but those guys are exceptions as opposed to the rule. I don't think your typical 19 year old American with NBA skills is jumping to go abroad. Plus, any American that goes abroad during a lockout would need a contract allowing them to return home as soon as it's resolved and I think foreign teams will be (understandably) reticent to give that type of flexibility.

Teams in Turkey and Italy often seem to be willing to throw a little money to recruit talent. Israeli teams have long been open to auditioning American talent. It's the Spanish teams who want to lock a player up permanently. But there are hardship cases every year who drop out to collect a payday. With no D-League as an option there will be smart Euro teams looking to poach talent, and canny agents willing to negotiate loopholes and escape clauses.

I'm saying I will not be surprised, considering it didn't hurt Jennings much, and the stronger Eurodollar makes the gap across the ocean seem a little smaller. You wouldn't take a semester overseas to get paid and help your family?

[Hoopalotta]

Seems like Chad Ford is projecting nine separate one-n'-doners. Dunno. He's got Givony's number 2 pick in 2012 coming in 2011 last I looked. I guess it's up in the air as of now - it could round into a good draft yet. Depends on the Freshmen and I have little idea about that.

As to a lockout, my question as to whether games or lost or not - and how many - would depend on how radical the owners demands are. They've said a lot as to what they want, but much of it is posturing. If they offer a relatively moderate package (say, gain 3-5% of revenue sharing and whittle the guarantees on the back end of contracts), I think we don't lose any games. Conversely, if they try and absolutely destroy the players union with all of the heavy handed measures they've mentioned being real objectives, then it could go on for a while. To me, it just depends on their position.

[fishercob]

Btw, Larry coon confirms that the upcoming draft is party of the current CBA. I need to double check that that means that tw rookie contracts will be as well. If they are, we could see more draft entrants, not less.

[closg00]

Btw, Larry coon confirms that the upcoming draft is party of the current CBA. I need to double check that that means that tw rookie contracts will be as well. If they are, we could see more draft entrants, not less.

Looking forward to seeing who is going to emerge from the pack, we should be able to add a nice player with our top-8 pick.

[closg00]

Yahoo's depressing draft preview, I hope the scouts will be as-wrong about this draft as they were about the 2009 draft. I actually wouldn't mind us taking another PG to back-up Wall.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=m ... zzer111210

[Hoopalotta]

I saw that Sullinger exploded statistically in his first game. Also some rookie wing from Kentucky put up gaudy numbers as well.

I watched a few minutes of Duke and I must say that Mason Plumlee was quite impressive. Extremely quick and explosive with a full on motor (he's much more fluid than Singler, despite being a 4). He had some spectacular blocked shots and showed a fledgling faceup game with a nice first step. Probably not a high lottery pick, but promising. Kyrie Irving was in there as well, but he wasn't really featured enough when I was watching to say what he can do.

[Ruzious]

I see all the internet sites are sleeping on one of my favorites - Tobias Harris - projecting him as a mid to late 1st rounder in 2012. I guess they see him as a tweener. I see him as a 3 in the Melo mold. He's off to a nice start. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball ... 1011120580

[zenvibes]

funny title.

the interesting part of the Wizards is that there really is 4-5 good pieces on this roster. If heywood were still on the team and playing at his best being a good defender, and the young guys getting spot minutes...and somehow Blatche steps it up a notch in both consistency and on defense th eWiz could certainly entertain a top 4 seed.

Arenas could be the best 6th man of all-time and come in with the brightest green light the league has ever seen. With Wall and Hinrich, they make as good a backcourt in the game nearly...certainly top 3 considering Arenas' 30 mpg or so. SF and PF is serviceable. Just weak at one of th emost important positions in the game. Center. Front office just needs to find a defender to fill and protect the paint and your set for a playoff run and being one of the funnest teams to watch.

so I wouldn't start watching the draft board just yet. I'd be begging the blazers for Pryz or Oden.

[Ed Wood]

funny title.

the interesting part of the Wizards is that there really is 4-5 good pieces on this roster. If heywood were still on the team and playing at his best being a good defender, and the young guys getting spot minutes...and somehow Blatche steps it up a notch in both consistency and on defense th eWiz could certainly entertain a top 4 seed.

Arenas could be the best 6th man of all-time and come in with the brightest green light the league has ever seen. With Wall and Hinrich, they make as good a backcourt in the game nearly...certainly top 3 considering Arenas' 30 mpg or so. SF and PF is serviceable. Just weak at one of th emost important positions in the game. Center. Front office just needs to find a defender to fill and protect the paint and your set for a playoff run and being one of the funnest teams to watch.

so I wouldn't start watching the draft board just yet. I'd be begging the blazers for Pryz or Oden.

Not that I wouldn't be game to talk about the draft even under the circumstances you describe I have a hard time anticipating great things from this roster when it has, granted in a very small sample size, managed a sub-100 offensive rating and a defensive rating of over 107. That's a discrepancy larger than the team managed either last year or in 03/04, a 25 win season. If Haywood were still on the team it probably wouldn't be as awful defensively but Haywood probably wouldn't have had a dramatically positive effect on the also terrible offense. This is by no means a team that should be turning up its nose at some draft talk.

So, on that subject, let's talk about the reality we may have to face in the coming months: we're gonna have to contemplate drafting one of the European big men who abound at the top of draft boards. I'm sure everyone is eagerly awaiting the opportunity to harpoon Ernie for his love of the melanin-inhibited but bad house music rich or whatever (seriously where did the idea that Ernie loves drafting Europeans even come from?) but because I enjoy this stuff I'd like to see as much grainy sasquatch sightings and youtube mixes of practices to California Love as possible.

In the spirit of fair play here's what I currently know about the big three from the old country: Donatas Motiejunas, Jan Vesely and Jonas Valanciunas:

Motiejunas: Looks like Russell Crowe, sounds very comfortable with English and has a great baritone timber. Seems to be fairly athletic and to have a high skill level for a big man, good shooter, good ball handler. His defense and rebounding are apparently problematic, which is just about all you could hope for in a guy who might play center. The entire package sounds a lot like Bargs.

Vesely: Not considered to be a great shooter or ball handler but is apparently a small forward at 6'11" nevertheless. Known more for his athletic ability and defensive intensity than for his offensive polish but is apparently improving and has something of a wing player skill set. Plays significant minutes on a team good enough to consistently appear in the Euroleague. Sounds like a Gerald Wallace/AK47 type.

Valanciunas: Younger than the other two, and apparently the most big man-y of the three. A good athlete by all reports but I know next to nothing about him so I don't have much to offer.

So bring on the goofy white guy windmill dunks in practice with a side of Three Six Mafia. I am ready.

Other guys I kinda like at this point:

Tyler Honeycutt
Chris Singleton
Alex Burks
Wesley Witherspoon
Anybody 6'8"+ and less than 220 lbs apparently.

Draft Talk!

[zenvibes]

funny title.

the interesting part of the Wizards is that there really is 4-5 good pieces on this roster. If heywood were still on the team and playing at his best being a good defender, and the young guys getting spot minutes...and somehow Blatche steps it up a notch in both consistency and on defense th eWiz could certainly entertain a top 4 seed.

Arenas could be the best 6th man of all-time and come in with the brightest green light the league has ever seen. With Wall and Hinrich, they make as good a backcourt in the game nearly...certainly top 3 considering Arenas' 30 mpg or so. SF and PF is serviceable. Just weak at one of th emost important positions in the game. Center. Front office just needs to find a defender to fill and protect the paint and your set for a playoff run and being one of the funnest teams to watch.

so I wouldn't start watching the draft board just yet. I'd be begging the blazers for Pryz or Oden.

Not that I wouldn't be game to talk about the draft even under the circumstances you describe I have a hard time anticipating great things from this roster when it has, granted in a very small sample size, managed a sub-100 offensive rating and a defensive rating of over 107. That's a discrepancy larger than the team managed either last year or in 03/04, a 25 win season. If Haywood were still on the team it probably wouldn't be as awful defensively but Haywood probably wouldn't have had a dramatically positive effect on the also terrible offense. This is by no means a team that should be turning up its nose at some draft talk.

So, on that subject, let's talk about the reality we may have to face in the coming months: we're gonna have to contemplate drafting one of the European big men who abound at the top of draft boards. I'm sure everyone is eagerly awaiting the opportunity to harpoon Ernie for his love of the melanin-inhibited but bad house music rich or whatever (seriously where did the idea that Ernie loves drafting Europeans even come from?) but because I enjoy this stuff I'd like to see as much grainy sasquatch sightings and youtube mixes of practices to California Love as possible.

In the spirit of fair play here's what I currently know about the big three from the old country: Donatas Motiejunas, Jan Vesely and Jonas Valanciunas:

Motiejunas: Looks like Russell Crowe, sounds very comfortable with English and has a great baritone timber. Seems to be fairly athletic and to have a high skill level for a big man, good shooter, good ball handler. His defense and rebounding are apparently problematic, which is just about all you could hope for in a guy who might play center. The entire package sounds a lot like Bargs.

Vesely: Not considered to be a great shooter or ball handler but is apparently a small forward at 6'11" nevertheless. Known more for his athletic ability and defensive intensity than for his offensive polish but is apparently improving and has something of a wing player skill set. Plays significant minutes on a team good enough to consistently appear in the Euroleague. Sounds like a Gerald Wallace/AK47 type.

Valanciunas: Younger than the other two, and apparently the most big man-y of the three. A good athlete by all reports but I know next to nothing about him so I don't have much to offer.

So bring on the goofy white guy windmill dunks in practice with a side of Three Six Mafia. I am ready.

Other guys I kinda like at this point:

Tyler Honeycutt
Chris Singleton
Alex Burks
Wesley Witherspoon
Anybody 6'8"+ and less than 220 lbs apparently.

Draft Talk!

well here's the thing with the roster as is...you have John Wall. That automatically puts you in win now mode. You truly have what should be one the elite players in the game at both ends...especially offense and he looks every bit the part of finisher. Hinrich is as good of a role player you can dram about having next to Wall. Arenas, if his head is it, can be the best 6th man the league has ever seen and if he learns to paly off Wall will see more minutes than Hinrich. Blatche can already hit a 20 footer and has a post game that has taken its first few breaths.

All you need a is a defensive C and lights out 3 pt shooter at SF and the roster will be as good as any going forward over the next 6-8 years.

I just dont think you find your C and your lights out 3 pt shooter/defender SF in any draft...that are ready to win now. Remember, once you get a player like Wall you have to win to keep them happy.

Losing a ton this year in year one will be forgivable if you get a high pick out of it and can turn that pick and some of the younger undeveloped talent on the team into some good veteran help. My guess is your GM starts to go that direction as soon as trade deadline this year.

[Hoopalotta]

well here's the thing with the roster as is...you have John Wall. That automatically puts you in win now mode.

Losing a ton this year in year one will be forgivable if you get a high pick out of it and can turn that pick and some of the younger undeveloped talent on the team into some good veteran help. My guess is your GM starts to go that direction as soon as trade deadline this year.

Someone didn't get the memo.

A) The team is out n' out terrible with fundamental flaws built into the roster.
B) Ownership has made it abundantly clear that they're full on with a youth movement.

[closg00]

You don't need a youth movement when you have John Wall, do Jennings & Rose have to slum with rookies? Start-over next year with a new coach and more talent.

[Hoopalotta]

Scrap the youth movement? What are we talking about here, signing Tayshaun Prince and Troy Murphy, squinting just so and telling ourselves that we have a sustainable core?

Seeing as that.......

A) We don't have enough core players.
C) Core players in their early prime's are very difficult and expensive to acquire on the free agent market and are very rarely traded.
C) Our franchise player is 20 years old.
D) We'll have more cap space in the summer of 2012 than we will in the summer of 2011 anyway (ie. don't spend MLE type money now when it's cutting into what would have been max money later)
E) Our owner accepts being bad and has stated emphatically that we're rebuilding.
F) Our interior is soft and might be fundamentally flawed.

.....It looks like high draft picks are coming in the next two years.

And forget about Jennings as a precedent. Jennings speaks to what about our situaation? He's more like an average to above average starter than a franchise player, being well, well behind Bogut as far as impact. The 'LeBron Versus Durant' team building scenarios would be more illuminating and applicable for us.

[gesa2]

We have Wall for 5 years before he can be a restricted free agent; our focus needs to be on creating the best team possible over that entire span in order to keep him, not bloating the roster with overpaid "win now" vets to peak as a 45 win team.

Jennings is a model for us, but sort of in reverse. Wall is our Bogut (but better). In a couple of years when we're starting to get good, we'll need a middle of the draft steal like Jennings or a trade for a disgruntled vet to put us over the top. That, and cap space to sign Howard.

[doclinkin]

We have one fundamental flaw: frontcourt defense. (Okay two flaws: rotational positioning and stout rebounding). If not for that we'd be nibbling at the back end of the playoffs at a minimum even with whatever other issues we have. You can't run if you can't collect the board off a miss. The other holes in our make-up can be filled with role-players or roster tweaks or coaching/philosophy changes. Or recovery from talented players in various stages of 'comeback'.

Nibbling obviously isn't what we're looking to do-- thus the designed roster-tanking that forces us to play JaVale heavy minutes till he gets it, and flip the 'Hilton or Yi' coin to see which underwhelming presence we can drop in when he doesn't. It was encouraging to see Booker get a look when Yi went down, he seems to stabilize the team when he's out there, improves other players with picks and screens that work as designed etc, but he's not worth a ton of wins by himself, just incremental improvement in subtle ways. Which is what we're looking at.

Meanwhile I'm happy to collect high picks. There are always strong talents available, even in 'weak' classes. I'm somewhat concerned about our draft evaluation team, we tend to look at upside more than production and so far the crapshoot has landed us mostly bullet-riddled crap (four and a half years of middling play from Dray; plus an occasional highlight from JaVale). But maybe Ted will have a positive effect? Bring in stats guys? Listen to the murmurs of the collective brain?

But given enough high picks we're sure to add someone who can play with force and have a real (positive) effect on the outcome. By accident even. So long as we don't sell the pick or trade them all away. Ted likes the draft, and quite frankly some years draft hopes are all we get.

I'm looking at defensive rebounding, dEFG% (extracted from team) and eFG% this year to see if we can get some stoppers and finishers. Still watching data right now, it's too early to get interested in anybody.

[Ruzious]

You don't need a youth movement when you have John Wall, do Jennings & Rose have to slum with rookies? Start-over next year with a new coach and more talent.

With nothing approaching an all-star caliber big, the youth movement approach is the only thing that makes sense.

[closg00]

We have Wall for 5 years before he can be a restricted free agent; our focus needs to be on creating the best team possible over that entire span in order to keep him, not bloating the roster with overpaid "win now" vets to peak as a 45 win team. Jennings is a model for us, but sort of in reverse. Wall is our Bogut (but better). In a couple of years when we're starting to get good, we'll need a middle of the draft steal like Jennings or a trade for a disgruntled vet to put us over the top. That, and cap space to sign Howard.

I agree, but why is there an assumption that ANY vet signing is a win-now addition that will lead to further mediocrity? We can do no-better than Armstrong, Yi, Hinrich, Thornton & Howard for vet-signings? Do folks here advocate that they all be re-signed (Howard until he's 35?)

Flip will be playing the vets that we aquire AHEAD of anyone that we draft so we will have to upgrade a few of the vets on our roster if we are ever going to improve....unless we add more picks to the roster while letting vets go, forcing Flips hand. Will Ernie do this?