Chris Broussard: Atlanta and Melo

[HMFFL]

Nuggets take step in right direction

Anthony's desire is to play in either New York or Chicago, but New Jersey has the best deal to offer Denver and could be his landing spot. Houston would like to get involved, and some executives say Atlanta's a team to watch in the push for Melo.

[ATL DirtyBird]

Somebody tell me how I should feel about this....

[SAUCERY_SWEET]

Somebody tell me how I should feel about this....

As far as it happening, don't feel very good, it sounds just like a lot of pitter patter from bored journalist.

As far as wanting it to happen, hope so. The guy is a SuperStar type player that can take this team to another level, his athleticism and shooting range and aggressiveness are above average even for the 80% of the NBA. Joe Johnson for example struggles with his aggressiveness and doesn't measure up athletically to "Melo". Yet we're paying him a lot more.

As far as who we give them for him, just about anybody in this case. He's 1 of the few players I would package Horford or Josh or Joe J. in a deal for and feel like we came out on the win side. Not all 3 but 1 of the 3 along with for example a Marvin Williams or somebody.

What say the congregation??

[HoopsGuru25]

What say the congregation??

Unless Melo decides to go to New Jersey(which I wouldn't btw)..I don't see him getting traded before the deadline. The Knicks are set up perfectly to sign and trade for him in the off-season.

[evildallas]

His motivation for a trade was to sign an extension under current cba rules with the team he wants to be with which in the Knicks. However if the owners stick to their guns about a salary rollback then when he signs is moot. Any other team has to look at him as a rental property and not a purchase. I think that is how Atlanta is getting into the discussion as a team offering something for him at the deadline that beats losing him outright or the package the Knicks offer.

My thoughts are that this might be a Marvin Williams, Jamal, and draft pick package. The thing would be that Marvin must show more promise before that could happen. Carmelo would be seen as a rental for a pre-lockout run. The only other package that makes sense to me would involve Joe which is highly unlikely and would be done as a way to get a do over on the contract commitment. In either case signing Melo long term would be a bonus. At minimum if he leaves we get a chance to field a position with a less expensive commitment.

Josh or Al in a deal is extremely unlikely for just a rental because their contracts are reasonable and there value should be higher than just a rental of a player. If Carmelo agreed to an extension then maybe, but it depends on whether ownership thinks that roster is more marketable than what we already have.

[azuresou1]

I'd do Marvin, Jamal, and a pick for Melo in a heartbeat. Like, milliseconds. Even without the extension.

[evildallas]

I'd do Marvin, Jamal, and a pick for Melo in a heartbeat. Like, milliseconds. Even without the extension.

The thing is Denver wouldn't do it unless it gets down to the trade deadline, they're out of it, Melo is clear he isn't coming back, and they take a liking to Marvin. Even then they probably get a better rental offer elsewhere. It was just the most likely offer I could come up with to rent Carmelo.

[SAUCERY_SWEET]

Agreed, Denver would hang up so quick on that deal it would make people from other rooms run in and ask you what was that??

[D21]

We can make a good offer, but the main problem is that DEN wants to not paying any Tax in a Melo trade.
They certainly prefers paying Tax this season and keep Melo as long as they can, and make at worst a last run in playoffs, than trade him in February for only get Marvin and picks in the long term, because Crawford, even if expiring would cost them something this season.

It means that the best offer based on that would require a third team with space to take Crawford contract : it can only be MIN or SAC. They also have to be motivated to do it.

But something build on Melo to ATL, Marvin to DEN and Crawford to SAC works perfectly.
DEN gets 20M less in Tax and Marvin.
They could want more, and SAC could want a first pick to do that.

Now it adds salaries, while if we trade Crawford, we ere supposed to take only 10M expiring back, because owners won't pay Tax, unless the addition on Melo get make them change their mind.

[dpaulh]

It would take Joe and Josh most likely... I don't think they would do it for Joe and Marvin... What about Joe, Marvin, and Teague? I think Melo could play 3 in the East and that front court would pose big problems for anyone...

[dpaulh]

We would also have to take on an unwanted salary no matter which combination it is to make the trade work with the NBA...

[Skyhawk1]

I don't care what it takes, if he signs an extension, anyone on the roster not named Horford is on the block. I'd try to retain Smith too, but Marvin and Joe are more than available.

[evildallas]

It would take Joe and Josh most likely... I don't think they would do it for Joe and Marvin... What about Joe, Marvin, and Teague? I think Melo could play 3 in the East and that front court would pose big problems for anyone...

If Melo doesn't agree to an extension it wouldn't take anything close to Joe and Josh. I would argue that even with an extension that Carmelo is not worth Joe and Josh together.

[rmorales]

Will you do this trade? Even if Carmelo does not sign?

Incoming Players
Carmelo Anthony
6-8 SF from Syracuse
25.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 3.0 apg in 37.5 minutes
Nene Hilario
6-11 C from Brazil (Foreign)
11.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.0 apg in 28.4 minutes
Arron Afflalo
6-5 SG from UCLA
12.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.8 apg in 33.9 minutes
Renaldo Balkman
6-7 SF from South Carolina
0.0 ppg, 0.3 rpg, 0.3 apg in 4.8 minutes

Outgoing Players
Josh Smith
6-9 PF from Oak Hill Academy (HS)
10.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.5 apg in 21.6 minutes
Marvin Williams
6-8 SF from North Carolina
9.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 2.0 apg in 30.9 minutes
Zaza Pachulia
6-11 C / C from Georgia (Foreign)
3.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.0 apg in 16.5 minutes
Maurice Evans
6-8 SF from Texas
3.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.0 apg in 11.8 minutes

[evildallas]

I just realized that the trade checker doesn't update stats often:
Josh is 15.1 ppg, 9.8 rpg, and 4.1 apg in 34.7 mpg while Marvin's rebounding stats are that impressive.

[sutrick]

The Hawks draft pick doesn't have much value since it will be non-lottery. There is no one that the Hawks have that other "rental" teams can't top. Broussard is a jerk for floating this. Hawks only hope would be if a third team really wanted someone the Hawks were willing to trade. I have no idea who anyone would want besides Josh and Al.

[The Rebel]

while I am still not sold on Smith's career longevity in the western conference, given the Nuggets long history of undersized pfs who have major injury problem. I could see the Nuggets settling for something like Melo, Andersen, and billups for Williams, smith, Teague, and a 1st, along with Crawford and a 1st being sent to a 3rd team for cap relief and a better pick from some team like the Kings that need backcourt help desperately.

that would get the Nuggets a young star PF, a servicable SF despite the bad contract, a young pg prospect to split time with Lawson, they would be right around the tax line, and with the 2 picks they would have a chance to add a couple of players later.

The Hawks would still be a little week at the center slot, but with melo, Johnson, Horford, and Billups that team could compete with anybody.

[theatlfan]

I don't think our target after 'Melo would be Billups; it'd be Nene. We'd have to include Smith or Horford in the deal in which case we'd have to get a C back or we'd be starting Zaza with either Collins or Etan backing him up... that's ugly. At PG, Bibby has his limitations, specifically on D, but he is a 40% 3PT shooter; Teague looks decent on D and may be coming around on O; JC2 showed some skills there in Summer League. Our PG situation isn't great, but it's not as bad as I feared @ the end of the FA period and could get consistently better over the next 2-3 years. For DEN's part, trading Nene instead of Billups would prolly work better. Nene has a PO for next year so he could opt out and leave for nothing in return... ala the same fear causing them to pull the trigger on 'Melo now. Billups OTOH has a TO, has championship experience, and has been fairly healthy throughout most of his career, so trading him @ the deadline shouldn't incur as many obstacles as trading Nene.

The deal I've been kicking around would be something like [Horford or Smith], Jamal, Marvin, and other assets for Melo, Nene, and possibly JR Smith (we wouldn't really want JR, but DEN would want to put him in the return package... without Jamal, we may have to take him). It's the "other assets" that is getting me though. A 1st or 2? Teague? JC2? Some combination? Anyway, I think it'd intrigue DEN since I haven't heard of any other deal that has a better combination of youth, upside, and current production than this one, even though the immediate tax relief isn't great. With the current 'Melo fiasco, I couldn't imagine DEN wanting to deal with their prize being an FA too soon. I'd imagine that they could even flip Jamal for an expiring + a prospect/pick if they wanted for even more youth in the deal. Also, with Jamal's expiring and Nene out, DEN only needs to shed Birdman (doable since backup Cs are always in demand and his contract isn't too bad) and Harrington (much harder) from having no one over 25 on the roster with committed salary past this season. They could even have max cap space next offseason... that and (at least) 2 1sts and they could make a play for someone on draft day (you think PHI would listen to a deal of 2 1sts + pure cap space for Igoudala? H3ll, PHI would prolly add assets on that one...).

The problem I see though is us. Would we break the bank for 'Melo and Nene? Maybe. I could see the ASG thinking that getting a superstar next to JJ and someone with C size would put us on the championship tier. Once there, they can decide whether the fans in ATL would come out or not which would affect their business plan in the future (if you make an extra $10 mil @ the gate, then obviously it'd be worth it to lose $8 mil in LT). But what if we - as fans - don't come out in droves? Or a key injury blows up a championship run before it even really starts? Then they blew it... and there's no turning back. This is something that would scare a risk adverse ownership group.

The Hawks draft pick doesn't have much value since it will be non-lottery. There is no one that the Hawks have that other "rental" teams can't top. Broussard is a jerk for floating this. Hawks only hope would be if a third team really wanted someone the Hawks were willing to trade. I have no idea who anyone would want besides Josh and Al.

All the media just parrots info or just tries to connect dots. It wouldn't surprise me if DEN just so happens to like someone on our team more than what others may think (guessing Marvin here, do to the aforementioned intrigue of pairing him with a true PG) or even 'Melo saying that ATL intrigues him (wife used to live here and maybe she liked it here, a star in JJ, decent young players and a penchant for building a bench seemingly every offseason). I'll just take it as a compliment and move on...

[The Rebel]

so let me get this right, you will trade your top 30 player and an overpaid SF for the Nuggets top 10 player, but only if the Nuggets add a top 5 center and you will throw in an expiring contract. But do not ask for any other value, as we are doing Denver a favor. If you are honest with yourself, you will see that the only way Denver trades Nene and Melo to the Hawks would be for Horford and Smith, and even then I doubt they do it.

Fact is that most knowledgeable people put Nene at a top 5 center, and at 27 years old on a good contract, the Nuggets have no need to trade him. if they do it will be for much more value then a throw in where they are already taking a talent hit, especially given that they have no real need for expiring contracts.
With the deal I posted the hawks actually stay under the tax this year, and depending on what they do with Chauncey would be staying right around the same neighborhood on guaranteed salary even with an extended melo.


Trading Chauncey would basically be doing Atlanta and Chauncey a favor, as he does not want to be on a team that would take a couple of years to compete, and with lawson fitting Karl's system better and ready to take over the starting role then they can afford to move Chauncey for basically an cap space and a young prospect or pick.

The nuggets are not going to do a complete rebuild if they end up doing a trade like this, they have no need to. They would have all their long term role players in place that outside of SF are all above average players, and the cap room to sign a top free agent in the either of the next 2 years. Why start over?

Now there is some argument in Nugget land that the deal I put here would not even work for the Nuggets, many think the Nuggets would rather have a couple of lottery picks, cap relief, and young prospects. so that they can get top prospects that they do not see the flaws in as opposed to a couple of flawed players with big money guaranteed and a couple of late 1st round picks.

[#1 pick]

Atlanta can't trade Smith for Melo/Billups as it would be counterproductive. Smith is 60% of our defense, we trade him, we need a starting center unless it's a defensive player like Smith and don't say Birdman because he is far from a starting center. Nene would have to be including in any deal for Melo or else, no reason for Atlanta to do a deal. Let's not forget who has the bargin power in this. Denver only has so many options. Chauncey is not what he once was, still better than Bibby but if you take Smith, you basically create a lane that no one can protect the basket and we will be no closer to a title than now. Melo/Nene are a must looking at our roster, I don't know what management thinks but the fact that they haven't offer should say that Atlanta is not doing a deal without what they want.

There is no way Atlanta would trade Jamal Crawford or take 10 million to get in LT this year if Nene is not included. No way. We took take Billups, filler, and Melo but you would have to take Marvin, Smith, Bibby and we would need a 3rd team for a center, (Daly, etc) for Crawford. Other than that, there is no way. I know it's not an issue in the West, but Dwight Howard plays in this conference. With this roster:
Aging Billups
Joe
Melo
Horford
Zaza

There is no way in hell we can match up with Dwight. We can't draw him away from the basket. Not enough front-line talent, Smith at least kept Orlando on it's toes when we run plays. This is asking for another four game swept. Not to mention, we are not going over the LT this year with the same results as usual. I see what your trying to say about Nene and no he's not a top 5 center, top 10 yes but D12, Horford, Lopez, Hibbert, Noah, Bogut are clearly better and he's in the same league with Camby, Kaman, and other guys like that.

This the the only thing I could see happening adding some picks going to Sacramento.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2bf9s8k