Chris Broussard: Atlanta and Melo

[theatlfan]

Lots going on here... let me take it 1 at a time.

so let me get this right, you will trade your top 30 player and an overpaid SF for the Nuggets top 10 player, but only if the Nuggets add a top 5 center and you will throw in an expiring contract. But do not ask for any other value, as we are doing Denver a favor. If you are honest with yourself, you will see that the only way Denver trades Nene and Melo to the Hawks would be for Horford and Smith, and even then I doubt they do it.

I stated that there could be other value, but I just have no idea what it'd be. I'm not so sure I wouldn't offer Teague, JC2, and 2 1sts in the package, although I'd prefer to hold back as much as possible (obviously).

Fact is that most knowledgeable people put Nene at a top 5 center, and at 27 years old on a good contract, the Nuggets have no need to trade him. if they do it will be for much more value then a throw in where they are already taking a talent hit, especially given that they have no real need for expiring contracts.

The problem with DEN and Nene is that if DEN trades 'Melo and Billups then what's to stop Nene from walking @ the end of the season? His reasonable contract has a PO for next season and he'll be 29 before the start of it (he actually turned 28 about 2 months ago).

Without 'Melo and Billups, I don't see DEN competing in the West. Sure, Lawson and [Smith or Horford] should be a nice tandem, but you need more star power from the wings (Affalo/Marvin are "good D with a little O"-type role players) and more firepower from the bench (though Andersen and Harrington would be a nice start). Would a 29 yo Nene stay for that? Sure, it could happen, but unless there's a personal issue there that I'm not aware of (very possible since his battle with cancer would be an emotional time), then I'd think that it'd be more probable that he'd just sign another reasonable contract with another team that has the superstar needed to truly compete.

As an aside here: I like Nene and I'm not sure who the "most knowledgeable people" are, but I'd find it hard to believe that someone who hasn't gotten 8 rpg in his entire career would rank in the top 5 Cs. I mean he's a very efficient offensive player and I'd definitely consider him for the top 10, but top 5? Whatever though - it doesn't really matter since it really isn't the point.

With the deal I posted the hawks actually stay under the tax this year, and depending on what they do with Chauncey would be staying right around the same neighborhood on guaranteed salary even with an extended melo.

I don't think DEN would care if we stayed under the LT or not - it doesn't matter to them. We'd prolly have to go into the LT to appease them since their already well into the tax and prolly be looking to cut costs. They'd be more interested in knowing their cap figure next year than caring whether we'd be in a position to stay under the tax. As for us, if we're getting 'Melo, then we're going for it now. We can't simultaneously be going for it and have a gaping hole in the middle - it just doesn't work that way. Zaza and Andersen are fine backup types, but I really don't want to see what happens if we have to depend on either for 20+ minutes per night... so forth both.

Trading Chauncey would basically be doing Atlanta and Chauncey a favor, as he does not want to be on a team that would take a couple of years to compete, and with lawson fitting Karl's system better and ready to take over the starting role then they can afford to move Chauncey for basically an cap space and a young prospect or pick.

Right... that's why it'd be easy to move Chauncey alone at a moment's notice for the same package you mention. As stated, Chauncey has been fairly healthy in his career and has championship experience - he's a good player. His contract calls for a TO next year so a trading team can opt to drop him if they'd prefer he just be a rental or keep him if they'd prefer he stay around. This kind of flexibility would go a long way in assuaging a risk adverse GM who's considering snagging him in a deadline deal. OTOH, Nene has all sorts of issues a trading team would want to know about before trading for him. Is his cancer still in remission? Would he stay or go if the team traded for him? Would he fit into the clubhouse? These are the types of ?'s teams would need to get from Nene that they simply wouldn't need from Billups. If you're up against the trade deadline, then you're options would be much smaller with Nene (basically the teams that already have these answers). This would be why it makes more sense for DEN to unload Nene very quickly while they could hold onto Billups all the way to the trading deadline if the "right" deal doesn't come along.

The nuggets are not going to do a complete rebuild if they end up doing a trade like this, they have no need to. They would have all their long term role players in place that outside of SF are all above average players, and the cap room to sign a top free agent in the either of the next 2 years. Why start over?

I think that DEN has already resigned themselves to this. As stated, if they have to ditch 'Melo and Billups (and I still postulate that Nene would leave as well), then they're not going to compete and need a few stars caliber or better players to get back to that level. Lawson could be 1 and [Horford or Smith] could be another, but they'll still need more before they're truly elite. As I postulated earlier, if they go into the draft armed with max cap space, multiple 1sts, and a decent young core, then they could be very dangerous come D-day and the subsequent off-season.

Now there is some argument in Nugget land that the deal I put here would not even work for the Nuggets, many think the Nuggets would rather have a couple of lottery picks, cap relief, and young prospects. so that they can get top prospects that they do not see the flaws in as opposed to a couple of flawed players with big money guaranteed and a couple of late 1st round picks.

I realize the value in that, but I also realize that the Nuggets haven't traded 'Melo yet either. Maybe it's nothing, but maybe it means they want a quicker rebuilding project than waiting on teen-aged kids to pan out. They've actually got a boatload of expiring contracts already and there's a double edged sword to cap room. If they unload 'Melo for nothing more than expirings and prospects, then they could find themselves mired in purgatory for years...