The early pulse in the West

[Wannabe MEP]

I believe the NBA is very good this year overall, but I don't see any dominant teams. The Heat don't look like the superpower many predicted. The Celtics, Magic, Spurs, Lakers, and Hornets have looked good but not great; there are chinks in the armor. No one has clearly separated themselves from the pack. While clearly outsiders to the party, I don't believe the championship window has closed on the Suns.

There are clear West leaders right now: the Spurs, Lakers, and Hornets. They all look really good. Who knows what's going to happen over the course of a long season, but they seem poised for 1-2-3. Nobody is sitting comfortably at No. 4. I think the Suns could move into that spot. Phoenix is one of 6 teams that appear to be in the mix for five playoff spots. Right now, Hollinger has them like this:
4. Dallas
5. Utah
6. Denver
7. Oklahoma City
8. Portland
9. Phoenix
But there's very little separation from 4 to 9. None of those teams looks great. If Nash doesn't miss two games, the Suns very well could be sitting at No. 4 right now, even with all our other early season issues (rediscovering chemistry, front-court defensive and rebounding concerns, Lopez injuries, Hedo adjustment, bizarre lineups).

As we gradually adjust and the schedule softens, I believe this team could move into fourth. From fourth, we have a chance. 1, 2, and 3 are vulnerable.
1. Spurs: Basically the same team the Suns swept in the playoffs last season. Suns already played them very tough this season before we had much of any chemistry. Duncan isn't aging as gracefully as Nash.
2. Lakers: We beat them in LA. Came within inches of beating them in the playoffs last year. They didn't upgrade.
3. Hornets: Still too early to tell who they are. Just lost to the awful Clippers.

I believe we have the players to make a very good run. I believe we have to change the lineups to do so, but I think the personnel is already in place.

[swe_suns]

I agree with everything u said expect for 2 things:

1. It will be extremely difficult to win games against teams with good/tall PF/C:ers. We will eventually need to trade for a PF without giving up nash/jrich. If we don't do this we will be screwed in the playoffs (if we make it that is).

2. We beat the lakers by making 22-40 3pters. Altough we played them pretty good at home you just cannot compare this team to the team in the WCF with Amare. Sorry but Lakers-Suns 10/11 in the playoffs would end in 5 games tops. Also you say that they didn't upgrade, are you serious? Their bench is much improved and I fail to see any weakness in that team right now.

Not that worried about the Spurs or Hornets though.

[YFZblu]

I'm hoping Robin's time off gives his back a chance to heal along with some other things.

But I agree, the biggest change this season will be when our schedule softens. Brandon Roy is still missing games and the Suns play the Blazers twice in three days (12/7 and 12/10). Could be a nice opportunity to rattle off a few wins with Memphis in between.

[Wannabe MEP]

swe_suns, good points.

I agree with everything u said expect for 2 things:

1. It will be extremely difficult to win games against teams with good/tall PF/C:ers. We will eventually need to trade for a PF without giving up nash/jrich. If we don't do this we will be screwed in the playoffs (if we make it that is).

I'd be willing to trade JRich for a good pf/c because I think we have enough other good perimeter players without JRich. More playing time for Dudley and Childress would be a defensive upgrade, and trust me, the offense will be fine.

No doubt, our defensive front-court is vulnerable, but is it really worse than last year, when we were inches from the finals?

2. We beat the lakers by making 22-40 3pters. Altough we played them pretty good at home you just cannot compare this team to the team in the WCF with Amare. Sorry but Lakers-Suns 10/11 in the playoffs would end in 5 games tops. Also you say that they didn't upgrade, are you serious? Their bench is much improved and I fail to see any weakness in that team right now.

Not that worried about the Spurs or Hornets though.

That shooting barrage was barely north of normal for the Suns: we regularly shoot above 40% from three even when a lot of them are contested. When we're getting wide-open looks, we're close to 50% from three. We were getting wide-open looks against the Lakers.

Amare was good because of his offense, not his defense. With Nash, the offense will find a way without Amare. Pretty much the only way to downgrade defensively from Amare was to replace him with a lazy, slow-footed small forward. As soon as Gentry figures out that we need to do something else with the lineups, we'll be a better defensive team than last year. And we'll still have the best offense in the NBA.

As to the Lakers: they had a good bench last year, and they have a good bench this year. I don't think they upgraded.

[airReacker]

Agree, plus, If you look at Wests top three, they got 8-8-7 home games respectively with relatively easy schedule, Suns had just 5, schedule was full of last year playoff teams and was very tight, true...

I can take Heat loss, they were resting for 4 days, watching our Lakers/Nuggets games and came out with a good game plan against a tired team.. I can take Magic loss too, Everybody knows our network center is Nash, that was our first game without him and they were no enough time to prepare themselves for it. However, the loss against Cats was really really heart-breaker. It took all my high hopes sent to underground and proved that this team's error margin is so tiny. If they fight and shoot well, they win; If they are stagnant at defense, no matter they shoot well or not, they most likely loose.

Yep, they are unconventional and they should fight every night to win. They are capable of making top three? I don't think so. Giving them %5 chance. Even if they make it, they will not have enough fuel for playoff rounds cuz they will be fighting throughout the way to reach there.

[Wannabe MEP]

However, the loss against Cats was really really heart-breaker.

Meh. The Suns without Nash is like the Cavs without LeBron.

[lilfishi22]

I have to agree. Lakers look great but they've played some pretty poor teams and have had a pretty easy schedule. Same could be said for the Spurs, who up until the Magic today, haven't really played a contender-level team. Utah looks pretty good, they've played and beat some pretty decent teams. I think OKC and Denver will get better as the season goes on. Both teams are still figuring things out defensively but both can be very good defensive teams. Dallas is going to be a good regular season team but we've seen their playoff run the last few seasons so whatever. Hornets looked great and they've found a way to play to each other's strengths and CP3 is playing like a superstar again. They've played some good teams but I'll need a few more games to decide if they are legit or not.

At this point with Portland's injury concerns to Roy, I think we're about as good as them without Lopez.

[airReacker]

However, the loss against Cats was really really heart-breaker.

Meh. The Suns without Nash is like the Cavs without LeBron.

yep true, but at offense, not defense. Freaking Cats scored 125 against us. Unbelievable! Nash is defensive player of the year? c'mon

[Wannabe MEP]

However, the loss against Cats was really really heart-breaker.

Meh. The Suns without Nash is like the Cavs without LeBron.

yep true, but at offense, not defense. Freaking Cats scored 125 against us. Unbelievable! Nash is defensive player of the year? c'mon

Nash is completely underrated as a defender, mostly because he changes the atmosphere for the whole team when he's there.
1. He hustles.
2. He encourages everybody. With words and high-fives, butt slaps, etc.
3. The team responds to his intensity.
4. He gets everyone involved on offense, and they respond by playing more engaged on defense.
5. When the offense repeatedly stalls without him there, players get frustrated, lose hope, and play desperate.
6. When the offense repeatedly stalls without him there, the other team gets easier buckets in transition.
7. He's always talking--directing--and the team respects his leadership.

[Wannabe MEP]

Oh, plus Nash has played most of his career surrounded by horrendous defenders. Everyone associates the Suns mediocre defense with Nash, but SSOL has always had a defensively pathetic front-court. Nash/Stat was always great on offense but horrible on defense, but I'd argue that the problem was Stat.

This year?
http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... C&team=PHX
Take a look at the "1 Year Unadjusted Def Rtg." The whole starting unit has horrible unadjusted numbers on defense: Nash is the least bad. Significantly better than Fropez, Turk, JRich, and Hill.

[lilfishi22]

That's a good point(s) Los Soles about Nash's defense. He's a subpar individual defender (but there aren't really many good defensive PG's anyway) but he's a highly underrated team defender. Like you said, he does try hard defensively and he always gets himself in position to draw the offensive player into help defense and his off-ball defense (when he's not over-helping) is excellent, which is how he draws so many charges.

[airReacker]

Good, pack all of the above intangibles in one word and call it "Leadership" and yes Nash is the Man. I'm not underestimating effect of leadership on team defense but could some one describe me how come this freaking squad let "We have a problem, Houston" had 100 attempts in one game?, with or without Nash, we have a problem, Phoneix.

[YFZblu]

IMO, it was an outrageous argument to begin with that Nash is/was the Suns defensive 'problem'. Defense starts in the front court, and Nash can't do anything about that when dolts like Stoudemire are man'ing the paint. There have been numerous instances proving that the Suns allow fewer points with Nash on the court. His leadership brings a rhythm to the game that helps the Suns on both ends of the court.

[Wannabe MEP]

could some one describe me how come this freaking squad let "We have a problem, Houston" had 100 attempts in one game?

Ok
1) the pace was fast, as it usually is for both these teams, so there were simply a lot of possessions
2) the Suns had more fast break points than usual, which speeds the pace of the game.
2) they are a smart team, so they shoot a lot of "key or three," which leads to more offensive rebounds
3) They got behind and started jacking up threes quickly, which quickened things and led to more long rebounds (and therefore, more offensive rebounds).
4) We shot 38 free throws; they shot 15 free throws. A higher percentage of their possessions ended in field goal attempts, but not necessarily to their advantage.
5) Gentry inexplicably overplayed our starters, who don't rebound well.

[Wannabe MEP]

IMO, it was an outrageous argument to begin with that Nash is/was the Suns defensive 'problem'. Defense starts in the front court, and Nash can't do anything about that when dolts like Stoudemire are man'ing the paint. There have been numerous instances proving that the Suns allow fewer points with Nash on the court. His leadership brings a rhythm to the game that helps the Suns on both ends of the court.

This.

[JohnVancouver]

From fourth, we have a chance. 1, 2, and 3 are vulnerable.
1. Spurs: Basically the same team the Suns swept in the playoffs last season. Suns already played them very tough this season before we had much of any chemistry. Duncan isn't aging as gracefully as Nash.

--- We beat them with Amar'e, who changes/changed how teams play us. We don't have that anymore

2. Lakers: We beat them in LA. Came within inches of beating them in the playoffs last year. They didn't upgrade.

--- See above, and yes., they did upgrade, in fact. Added Matt Barnes, who is playing well for them, and Steve Blake, along with Caracter and Ebanks, both of whom are big and strong enough to cause us problems. They got bigger and tougher, and deepened their improved their PG position

3. Hornets: Still too early to tell who they are. Just lost to the awful Clippers.

I believe we have the players to make a very good run. I believe we have to change the lineups to do so, but I think the personnel is already in place.

It's nice to see this kind of optimism, sincerely ... I think it's a little overly-optimistic for the above reasons. Until we 1) add a big who can give us a presence at both ends and 2) commit to playing solid, aggressive team defense we are going to be a botheration to many good teams but ultimately not a serious contender.

The "awful" Clippers are actually in better shape than we are. All they need to do is unload Baron - lots of size, good young players to go with Griffin, not a bad team at all. I know they'll screw it up but this is the best they've looked in a few years and they may even add another good piece this year


Can you imagine this Suns team with Griffin?

[DRK]

I'll take Baron, De-Andre Jordan for Hedo.

-waits for barrage of insults and "are you crazy" comments-

[lilfishi22]

I'll take Baron, De-Andre Jordan for Hedo.

-waits for barrage of insults and "are you crazy" comments-

Not because of Baron's terrible contract but because it'll stunt Dragic's development.

[DRK]

I'll take Baron, De-Andre Jordan for Hedo.

-waits for barrage of insults and "are you crazy" comments-

Not because of Baron's terrible contract but because it'll stunt Dragic's development.

If I was to be a douche, I would reply with "Hedo is stunting Earl Clark's development," but I'm not and I'll just let it slide...

[airReacker]

could some one describe me how come this freaking squad let "We have a problem, Houston" had 100 attempts in one game?

Ok
1) the pace was fast, as it usually is for both these teams, so there were simply a lot of possessions
2) the Suns had more fast break points than usual, which speeds the pace of the game.
2) they are a smart team, so they shoot a lot of "key or three," which leads to more offensive rebounds
3) They got behind and started jacking up threes quickly, which quickened things and led to more long rebounds (and therefore, more offensive rebounds).
4) We shot 38 free throws; they shot 15 free throws. A higher percentage of their possessions ended in field goal attempts, but not necessarily to their advantage.
5) Gentry inexplicably overplayed our starters, who don't rebound well.

They had 31 assists and got ONLY 14 turnovers. In second half they scored 71 points with shooting over %70 percentage, budy. You still insists on "Leadership" creates huge effect on team defense?

You may have all the rights to say, but when our team is sitting bottom of the league on defensive ratings (113.8), its hard to say we just need A KEY PLAYER ( a traditional PF in this picture) and everything will get in equilibrium.