Looking back; McGee vs Hibbert

[The Fax]

IIRC I remember reading that EG would have taken Hibbert had he lasted 1 more pick in the 08 draft. 3 years later, they're starting to show their stuff. Who do you think has the brighter future? Are you satisfied with the pick now or do you wish Hibbert fell to us?

I think it's going to be interesting following these two. Both started slow, but are just now getting with the program.

I don't know who I'd rather have, tbh.

[Hoopalotta]

I just watched the Pacers against the Magic and there's basically no question that the Hibbenought is ahead of Javale as of now. Breakout year for him. As far as I'm concerned, he's really poised to overtake guys like Marc Gasol, Horford and possibly even Noah if he can keep it up with the toughness stats.

The dude's a preposterous +37 net On/Off per 100 possions!

http://www.82games.com/1011/10IND15.HTM

A lot of good points about Hibbert:

Versatile and polished scoring game with a gurney sack full of old school moves that are effectively unblockable. I expect he'll have a 19 footer before long.
Very nice passer - sets a lot up, which is big for the Pacers as their guards stink.
Very smart (though turnover prone)
Solid low post defender, respectable help defender, though not hyper rangy there
Suddenly he's controlling the lane and rebounding the ball very well
Nice motor - not a natural runner by any means, but doesn't get beat down the court

Hibbert, considering where he was drafted, really has to be one of the absolute best value picks in the entire league, especially if we exclude Euros.

The main difference is that Hibbert has realized the vast majority of his potential, while Javale is just starting to wiff the bouquet of his own. I don't need to mention who the more mobile and explosive player is and a lot could happen in a year, which is the gap in their age. The Hibbert of one year ago wasn't at this level, so there's that working for Javale.

But McGee could be a top 8 center in this league without being better than Hibbert, so I don't think we should get too pressed about this. Crazy talk, but I could go higher than top 5.

[Hoopalotta]

Looking it over a little more, the difference in age is key. Statistically speaking, Javale's current play compares well with the Hibbert from last year. So the question is, where will Javale be at a year from now?

Also, is Hibbert going to be able to continue rebounding and challenging shots like he is now or is this an early season illusion?

The Pacers are well poised to make a leap to perennially "scrapping for the fourth seed" if they can do something sexy with their cap space. Somehow i think they make a run at Jeff Green as he seems like their kind of guy. They should also think about trading for Jason Thompson.

[JWizmentality]

JaVale needs weight and a proper mentor. Is Tony freakin Massenburg still our big man coach?

[God Squad]

Right now, I'd pick Hibbert. He as a better and more polished offensive/inside presence. But Javale is a better defensive big. So it really depends. It's still a little early to tell though.

[TGW]

You have to take Hibbert. McGee only has one thing on Hibbs -- shotblocking, and even that is a minor advantage because Hibbs blocks alot of shots as well.

[Illuminaire]

I don't think it's nearly that clear cut, TGW.

Roy Hibbert

Year---- Pts/40---- Reb/40----Ast/40----Blks/40----Stl/40----ORR----DRR
2009---- 19.6------- 9.6-------- 1.9-------- 3.0-------- 0.8----- 12.5----- 14.1
2010---- 18.6------- 9.1-------- 3.1-------- 2.6-------- 0.6----- 9.4------ 15.5
2011---- 21.0------- 13.1------- 4.4-------- 3.6-------- 0.6----- 13.9----- 23.7

Javale McGee

Year----Pts/40----Reb/40----Ast/40----Blks/40----Stl/40----ORR----DRR
2009---- 17.1------- 10.3-------- 0.8-------- 2.6-------- 1.2----- 12.0----- 18.4
2010---- 16.0------- 10.1-------- 0.6-------- 4.2-------- 0.7----- 10.4----- 18.8
2011---- 12.6------- 10.9-------- 0.5-------- 4.8-------- 1.2----- 13.4----- 19.8


Javale is significantly better at blocks and steals - SIGNIFICANTLY. You can't look at those two categories the way you would points or rebounds, which have higher totals and much wider standard deviations. As any fantasy basketball junkie will tell you, .4 steals is a world of difference, and 1-2 blocks/game is a massive difference too.

Hibbert is far and away the better passer. Unquestionably.

Rebounding-wise they are actually not very different. They get about the same % of offensive rebounds. For his career, McGee is a better defensive rebounder too. Right now Hibbert is crushing his old numbers in that regard, and I think it's fair to question whether he can maintain a rate nearly 80% higher than his previous production. If Hibbert settles down a bit over the course of the season, then they will end up about even in this department.

It's also worth noting that the more offensively "polished" Hibbert is shooting 45% from the field and turning the ball over 3.4 times per 40 mins, while the offensively raw McGee is putting in 57% of his shots and turning the ball over only twice per 40.

By potential, McGee is definitely the better player. By current production, McGee is still arguably the better player. And this is coming from a McGee critic. =p

[Nivek]

I don't think overall production suggests that McGee is the better player right now. I do agree that McGee is potentially the better player. McGee's ortg (points produced per 100 possessions) is 113 to Hibbert's 106. That's better, but McGee also uses a lot fewer possessions -- Hibbert's usage rate is 26.6; McGee's is 14.8. What that tells us is that Hibbert carries a BIG offensive load, but McGee does not. The per 40 stats are kinda misleading because they don't account for that difference in roles.

Looked at per possession used, Hibbert this season is right about the league average in terms of efficiency despite carrying such a heavy offensive load. Of the 41 players this season with a usage rate above 25, Hibbert ranks 25th in ortg. The Wizards have 3 guys with 25+ usage rates: Wall with an ortg of 102 (ranks 32nd); Arenas 97 (37); Blatche 94 (39). For anyone who might still be pining for a return of Caron Butler -- Butler is dead last in this group with an ortg of 89. Hibbert is in a group with Durant, Griffin, Joe Johnson and Amare.

Hibbert's turnover rate (14.9% of his possessions) is a) acceptable for a big, and b) better than McGee's (16.9%).

None of this is intended to be an indictment of McGee. Hibbert's better right now, but that doesn't mean things will stay that way. McGee has HUGE upside that's largely untapped. I mean, imagine if he actually developed a post game -- shoot, just one solid move and a counter would probably be too much for most defenders to handle.

[Illuminaire]

I don't think I can fully agree with you there, Kevin. I can go most of the way - Hibbert looks like a slightly better player by many measurements, and you've made an excellent case for his present status.

At the same time, his TS% is complete crap for a starting center (and that's with some fairly hot FT shooting well above his career averages). His usage is high, but that may not be a good thing so much as a necessary evil the Pacers have to live with. I've only watched two of his games so far, but I'm not that impressed. I came away feeling like if they had better options, they'd use them.

Maybe it's just the lack of thunderous jams and fierce salutes, though.

[Nivek]

I agree on the shooting percentage from the floor. I'm just saying that if I had one game that I absolutely, positively HAD TO WIN, and I HAD to choose between McGee and Hibbert, I'd go Hibbert right now. Ask me again next month and I might give a different answer -- Javale could improve that quickly.

Is it just me, or does anyone else loathe those "salutes" McGee does?

I like the dunks, though.

[queridiculo]

Is it just me, or does anyone else loathe those "salutes" McGee does?

I like the dunks, though.

Glad to see I'm not the only one. I can't stand the salute, I wish he would stop it already!

[Nivek]

By the way, Hibbert's TS% is about the median point for NBA centers -- he ranks 25th in TS% among the 42 centers with at least 85 minutes played. He's 23rd in ortg among centers. Interesting -- he's 3rd in usage. The Pacers may prefer another option, but they're going to him a lot. It'll be interesting to see what happens with him the rest of the way.

[no D in Hibachi]

The one thing lacking in McGee’s game is reliability on offense. He’s tremendous in spurts, but you don’t know when he’ll make contributions, or how he’ll make contributions other than put backs. For instance with Blatche, I’m still reasonably confident in him down the stretch because you can run him off screens and set him up in the post and he’ll get a high percentage shot. Recently he’s not shooting at a high percentage, but it’s still a viable option when you need a bucket. McGee has nothing like that, nor confidence in his mid-range shot to put it up and fill it up with regularity.

I’m confident he’ll develop in this area eventually, but it appears that Hibbert has this skill which puts him above McGee at the moment. Hibberts ceiling is nowhere near McGees.

[Hoopalotta]

It's worth noting that Hibbert is the starting point of the Indiana offense and their guard play is really poor as far as playmaking (I actually think Brandon Rush is coming on, but he's hardly a setup guy). So, McBob and Hibbert are actually quite integral as passers for getting looks for everyone, possibly even doing more to get the wings good looks than vice-versa and that is both atypical and not helping the efficiency.

Much of Hibbert's scoring is off of post up 'something from nothing' situations from relatively far out. He's taking 5.5 shots from inside of 10 feet and only 34.4% of those are assisted. He's also shooting 3.4 long 2-point jumpers a game.

http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Roy%20Hibbert

Basically, it's my subjective view that Hibbert's potential as far as efficiency is actually quite high and the situation is crimping him. The extent to which they go to him is probably above his ability to handle at this point.

I do agree with the general point that McGee can catch Hibb's and his game probably is a better fit with Wall anyway. Defensively, while Roy is a nice shot blocker and presence, he doesn't have nearly the range of McGee as a help defender either (like, duh).

[Illuminaire]

By the way, Hibbert's TS% is about the median point for NBA centers -- he ranks 25th in TS% among the 42 centers with at least 85 minutes played. He's 23rd in ortg among centers. Interesting -- he's 3rd in usage. The Pacers may prefer another option, but they're going to him a lot. It'll be interesting to see what happens with him the rest of the way.

I also am interested to see how his season goes. I will end my part of our good-natured back and forth by simply saying that with 32 starting center jobs, ranking 25th in TS should probably count as pretty bad. =p

Game's on, time to go watch Javale (hopefully) keep improving! ^_^

[jimij]

After another great game from McGee tonight would anyone who picked Hibbert like to change that opinion. Flip seems to have gotten through to McGee to keep his motor consistently high throughout games and even though he has no discernible post game that he can count on, his ceiling is so fricking high that he could legitimately end up the second best center in the league after Howard if he keeps improving. He has the ability to change games defensively.

[Hoopalotta]

OK, Javale's better than Roy, let's just say it. He's more than a year younger too.

I suppose the truth is I'm a big fan of centers in general with most of my favorite players over the years being at that position. I'm just prone to getting excited about skilled centers. A fatal flaw.