Week 12 - Dirty Birds Lead Up

[rilamann]

Actually just our game takes from #1 seed to #6 seed The Philly game doesn't matter if we lose because the Bears beat us head to head obviously.

[trwi7]

This game is huge since Atlanta has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. After the Packers they get Tampa Bay on the road, who I think are frauds, Carolina twice, Seattle on the road and New Orleans at home.

[MickeyDavis]

Conference Tiebreakers

1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.

2. Head-to-head, if applicable. (For ties between 3 or more teams, this step is only applied if there is a head-to-head sweep; i.e., if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

5. Strength of victory (record of all the teams they defeated that season).

6. Strength of schedule (record of all the teams they played that season).

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in conference games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

12. Coin Toss.

[rilamann]

This game is huge since Atlanta has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. After the Packers they get Tampa Bay on the road, who I think are frauds, Carolina twice, Seattle on the road and New Orleans at home.

Yeah this game will be as close as you can get to a playoff game without it actually being a playoff game.

Whoever wins probably get the #1 seed in the NFC.

If we win we are in the #1 spot and suddenly with the exception of the Pats game our schedule the rest of the way doesn't look all that tough.

And like you said the Falcons schedule isn't all that tough the rest of the way either,plus they will have at least a 1 game lead on everyone if they win Sunday.

[Wilford Brimley]

To be clear, we DO need Chicago to lose to Philly.

[Kerb Hohl]

5. Strength of victory (record of all the teams they defeated that season).

Lulz @ Buccaneers here.

[Wilford Brimley]

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010 ... ferential/

LOL @ Bucs.

[Wilford Brimley]

Also, 1 thing no one is talking about is how Demitri Nance will want to stick it to Arthur Blank and his old team and play focused, determined football, running for 355 yards and 11 scores.

[an_also]

Kerry J. Byrne>COLD HARD FOOTBALL FACTS
Game of the Week: Packers-Falcons

ColdHardFootballFacts.com breaks down Sunday's Green Bay at Atlanta game (1 p.m. ET, Fox).

Aaron Rodgers and the statistically prolific Packers (7-3) roll into Atlanta to face Matt Ryan and the Falcons, who boast the best record in the NFC (8-2). The winner enters December with an inside track on the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Three Things You Should Care About

1. Aaron Rodgers is about to enter the realm of statistical greatness. The NFL requires a minimum of 1,500 career pass attempts to qualify for "official" records. Rodgers has attempted 1,470. With an average of 33 attempts per game this year, he has a good chance of crossing that 1,500-attempt threshold on Sunday. And when he does, his name will be high on the list of several critical measures of pass efficiency -- the kind of indicators in which the Cold, Hard Football Facts place the most value.

Rodgers has been tremendous since he became the full-time starter in Green Bay in 2008. His 103.2 passer rating in 2009 was the highest by any Packers quarterback since the great Bart Starr himself in his MVP season of 1966 (105.0) and his shortened nine-game season of 1968 (104.3).

Rodger's career rating (96.87) is second-best in NFL history, a micro-shade ahead of Steve Young (96.81) and behind only his current stat-monster contemporary, Philip Rivers (97.27), on the all-time list.

Perhaps more impressively, Rodgers boasts what is easily the best TD-INT ratio ever. We put a lot of stock in this indicator because it indicates great production while minimizing killer mistakes. Rodgers has thrown 2.6 touchdowns for every INT (78-30). It's a mind-blowing number by the historic standards of the NFL. It's well ahead of the next two guys on the list:

• Philip Rivers throws 2.39 TDs for every pick (129-54).

• Tom Brady throws 2.37 TDs for every pick (244-103).

Some other notables on the TD-INT ratio list? Peyton Manning (2.05 to 1); Joe Montana (1.96 to 1); Dan Marino (1.67 to 1); Brett Favre (1.52 to 1), just to name a few.

Barring any unforeseen disasters, Rodgers will "officially" be a statistical giant on Monday morning.

Of course, Rodgers (and Rivers for that matter) still must stand under a shower of confetti in February before their reputations will match their historic productivity.

2. That Matt Ryan kid ain't half bad either, especially at home. Atlanta's third-year quarterback has been deadly at home. He's 18-1 in Atlanta and that lone loss was a narrow 24-20 defeat to the Broncos back in his rookie year of 2008. You rarely see that kind of stretch of success out of a Hall of Fame veteran at the peak of his career, let alone out of a young player in his earliest days.

Ryan's home numbers are impressive, as you'd expect to see from any quarterback during a long string of success. Here's his cumulative performance in 19 home games:

• 347 of 540 (64.3 percent), 4,159 yards, 7.7 YPA, 28 TD, 12 INT, 95.75 rating

Wow, that's great stuff. But don't put another victory in the win column for Atlanta just yet. Green Bay is tied with the Bears for the best defense in football this year (14.6 PPG). And its pass defense in particular provides a formidable challenge.

We measure pass defenses not by yards allowed -- really a useless indicator -- but by Defensive Passer Rating. We take the formula used to rate a quarterback's passing efficiency and apply it to a team's defensive stats. It has an incredibly high correlation to team success.

The Packers right now are No. 2 in Defensive Passer Rating (66.46). Only the Bears are better, and just barely (66.42). Green Bay has allowed just nine TD tosses all year, with 15 picks. Opponents complete a mere 55.9 percent of their passes; only the Jets are better in this department (51.0 percent). Green Bay is also No. 2 in yards per pass attempt against them (6.46). It's a great pass defense, in other words.

With all that said, the Packers have not exactly faced a murderers' row of quarterbacks: Michael Vick in Week 1, Mark Sanchez and Week 8 and that's about it for good quarterbacks leading good teams on Green Bay's schedule so far.

Bottom line: Green Bay's pass defense vs. Ryan at home represents what might be the toughest battle for both sides all year.

3. The Packers are the most efficient, well-run team in football this year. The Cold, Hard Football Facts put a lot of stock in efficiency over volume. Efficient teams win games, regardless of how prolific they might be.

You should put a lot of stock in efficiency, too. After all, teams that win the efficiency battle by our measure win about 85 percent of the time. Few indicators outside of final score have such an incredibly high correlation to success on Sunday.

We measure defensive efficiency through what we call the Bendability Index, our very successful effort to quantify the mysterious "bend but don't break" phenomenon. We measure offensive efficiency by what we call the Scoreability Index.

Right now, no team in football is more efficient on both sides of the ball than Green Bay. The Packers are No. 1 in Bendability: they force opponents to march an incredible 155 yards to score the equivalent of one touchdown and extra point. That's a lot of work and a lot of wasted effort by opponents with little result.

(For comparison's sake, the Chargers are dead last this year in Bendability: opponents need just 89 yards to put seven points on the board. Now you know why San Diego is just 5-5 despite its incredible rankings in most traditional indicators: they're an inefficient team.)

The Packers, meanwhile, are No. 3 in Scoreability, too. They're highly effective at turning just a few yards into a lot of points. Green Bay needs just 97 yards of offense to put the equivalent of seven points on the board.

A lot of factors go into a highly efficient team, at least the way we track it: teams that win the turnover battle, that are good on special teams, that force big plays on defense and that play well in the red zone rank very highly in our efficiency indicators. The Packers, in other words, are an efficient, well-coached team that plays smart situational football and takes advantage of opportunities presented to it on both sides of the ball.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts

Atlanta is well equipped to handle Green Bay's playmaking defense. The Falcons right now field the best offensive line in football, according to our Offensive Hog Index. And that unit will play a key role on Sunday.

The Packers are among the best in football at getting after the quarterback, as evidenced by their NFC-leading 29 sacks. Linebacker Clay Matthews leads the charge with 11.5 sacks, the most by any player this year.

Atlanta counters with one of the best pass-blocking units in football: Ryan is pressured into a sack or interception on just 5.1 percent of dropbacks. Only Peyton Manning suffers fewer mistakes (4.2 percent).

Provided Atlanta's offensive line plays up to its potential on Sunday, it neutralizes one of Green Bay's typical advantages: its playmaking defense.

The Falcons also have a better record overall, they're a solid club, and they're virtually unbeatable at home. It's hard to go against that kind of trend.

But they do have one critical weakness: the Falcons are merely mediocre on pass defense. They rank a mere No. 21 in Defensive Passer Rating, and have allowed 18 TD passes this year. That weakness does not bode well against the statistically prolific Rodgers, who will exploit that weakness and enter the "official" NFL record books in style.
The Pick

This is one of the toughest games to gauge we've seen this year: Green Bay is statistically proficient, while the Falcons never lose at home.

Here's the difference: Green Bay has surrendered just 10 points in its last three games, the best stretch of defense by any team in football this year. The Falcons, meanwhile, are soft on pass defense and face a red-hot quarterback. It adds up to a rare loss in Atlanta for the Falcons.

Green Bay 24, Atlanta 23

(Week 11 prediction: New England 27, Indianapolis 26. Result: New England 31, Indianapolis 28.)

ColdHardFootballFacts.com is dedicated to cutting-edge analysis and to the "gridiron lifestyle" of beer, food and football. Follow them on Twitter and Facebook. Email comments to siwriters@simail.com.


Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... z16VUnzrlg

[Wilford Brimley]

HFA on the line?

[rilamann]

I hope im wrong but I got a feeling that we actually outplay the Falcons statistically but they somehow grind out a close win.

I could see any number of things happening actually,I could sort of see us laying an egg and getting a reality check and I could also see us winning big and establishing ourselves as the clear favorite in the NFC.

[pdxblazers92087]

I have a good feeling going into this game. I feel like the Falcons are due for a loss, Ryans home record is great but if it was Rodgers every game i'd be thinking " i wonder when we have an off game and this ends". Teams dont play amazing forever and hopefully the Packers show us that this is true (for the Falcons).

[Wilford Brimley]

Encouraging yet depressing stats about our last 5 losses:

@Pit - 1 point - last play
@AZ - 6 points - last play - OT
@Chi - 3 points - last play
@Was - 3 points - last play - OT
Miami - 3 points - last play - OT


Thats 5 losses by a combined 16 points - 3.2 ppg, and 3 OT games.

Its depressing, but it is encouraging that we don't get blown out.

[Wilford Brimley]

ATL has allowed 18 passing touchdowns in 8 games, including 3 each to Palmer, Flacco and Brees. LOL

[PkrsBcksGphsMqt]

Seriously can't wait for this game.

[Flames24Rulz]

Please win tomorrow. Been a crappy sports weekend so far. We can salvage that with a win in ATL.

[BucksRuleAll22]

I have a feeling this is gonna be a shoot out. My gut tells me that the defense is gonna have a poor game for once and this game will end at like 41-38 to whatever team has the ball last. Turner is a no factor. Packers shut down every Rb no matter who he is. I sat Turner in my fantasy league. I also sat AP last week since thats how good the Packers are against the run.

If the defense continues to play great than theres no reason the Packers don't win this game. My gutt tells me though that a shoot out is coming.