what we need is a legit leadoff hitter

[Skin Blues]

On a team like Toronto which led both leagues in slugging percentage, the very last thing you want to do is steal bases. Every CS is even more harmful than for an average team. They are the last team in the league that should be attempting more stolen bases.

Having a good hitter at the plate would DECREASE the advantage of a stolen base. This isn't just mumbo jumbo, it's very easy to take into account all of the possible outcomes and assign them values based on likelihood. Having a bad hitter at the plate would INCREASE the advantage of a stolen base. Especially if he hits into a lot of double plays due to being slow, right-handed, or just hitting a lot of ground balls.

By the way, the figures I used were on the low end of the "break-even" point. It's generally accepted to be closer to 80% success rate, but obviously that is an average number and will be higher or lower depending on situation. For a team like Toronto with the best slugging in the league and being hard-pressed for base runners, wasting an out by getting caught stealing is a really bad thing to do. That means the break-even point would be even higher. 85%? Maybe higher? Hard to know exactly without looking deeper. But I know from experience that most old-school announcers that love steals tend to be in favour of completely destroying any chances teams have of scoring runs and they justify it to themselves when it seems to work once in a while.

I agree that it's more fun to watch if you have some speedy guys running around rather than having a slow guy take walks, but it really isn't beneficial in the long-run most of the time unless you can steal at a very high success rate. The reason it's still popular is because there are all of these perceived intangibles that come along with base stealing which are pretty insignificant in terms of scoring runs. How do you discredit something when it's defenders claim it's virtues are "intangible". You can't. And that my friends, is how Derek Jeter has won 5 gold gloves awards. People don't like to believe it's so simple as getting on base and hitting for power, but it is. I'm at work right now or else I'd go grab a couple links to articles about this. It's not as abstract and hypothetical as it seems.

[flatjacket1]

On a team like Toronto which led both leagues in slugging percentage, the very last thing you want to do is steal bases. Every CS is even more harmful than for an average team. They are the last team in the league that should be attempting more stolen bases.

Having a good hitter at the plate would DECREASE the advantage of a stolen base. This isn't just mumbo jumbo, it's very easy to take into account all of the possible outcomes and assign them values based on likelihood. Having a bad hitter at the plate would INCREASE the advantage of a stolen base. Especially if he hits into a lot of double plays due to being slow, right-handed, or just hitting a lot of ground balls.

By the way, the figures I used were on the low end of the "break-even" point. It's generally accepted to be closer to 80% success rate, but obviously that is an average number and will be higher or lower depending on situation. For a team like Toronto with the best slugging in the league and being hard-pressed for base runners, wasting an out by getting caught stealing is a really bad thing to do. That means the break-even point would be even higher. 85%? Maybe higher? Hard to know exactly without looking deeper. But I know from experience that most old-school announcers that love steals tend to be in favour of completely destroying any chances teams have of scoring runs and they justify it to themselves when it seems to work once in a while.

I agree that it's more fun to watch if you have some speedy guys running around rather than having a slow guy take walks, but it really isn't beneficial in the long-run most of the time unless you can steal at a very high success rate. The reason it's still popular is because there are all of these perceived intangibles that come along with base stealing which are pretty insignificant in terms of scoring runs. How do you discredit something when it's defenders claim it's virtues are "intangible". You can't. And that my friends, is how Derek Jeter has won 5 gold gloves awards. People don't like to believe it's so simple as getting on base and hitting for power, but it is. I'm at work right now or else I'd go grab a couple links to articles about this. It's not as abstract and hypothetical as it seems.

You go up to bat with a guy at 1st, I'll go up to bat with a guy at 2nd. Assuming you're the better hitter, chances are I'll still win.

[WpgPage]

Our offense is based on power and I think we can all agree thats not going to change any time soon, however I think its also important to have some balance. We won 85 games this year as a completely 1 dimensional team how many more game can we win if we have the option to steal, bunt and manufacture runs? Its not about changing the entire offense its about becoming more than a one trick pony.

[Schad]

Our offense is based on power and I think we can all agree thats not going to change any time soon, however I think its also important to have some balance. We won 85 games this year as a completely 1 dimensional team how many more game can we win if we have the option to steal, bunt and manufacture runs? Its not about changing the entire offense its about becoming more than a one trick pony.

It depends on whether, in attempting to manufacture runs, we're actually costing ourselves runs. Sacrifice bunting is a great example of that; on an average team, they tend to be run-negative, but on a power-laden team they are just a terrible idea unless you're facing a superstar pitcher with serious groundball tendencies. It's old, but here's Tom Tango's run expectancy for various situations, using data from 1999-2002 (and the fundamentals of the game haven't really changed, so it's still illustrates the norm):

Runs scored in an inning from that point forward (so, not only including the runners on base):

- Runner on first, no outs: .953 runs/inning.
- Runner on second, one out: .725 runs/inning.

That's a significant drop; you might get that single run a little more frequently, but you're also eschewing some of the multi-run innings that comprise the bulk of production in MLB these days. If you're down one, top of the ninth with a guy on first and your ninth hitter up, yeah...you want to bunt. But you don't want to make a habit of it, unless your offense is utter garbage.

[Skin Blues]

On a team like Toronto which led both leagues in slugging percentage, the very last thing you want to do is steal bases. Every CS is even more harmful than for an average team. They are the last team in the league that should be attempting more stolen bases.

Having a good hitter at the plate would DECREASE the advantage of a stolen base. This isn't just mumbo jumbo, it's very easy to take into account all of the possible outcomes and assign them values based on likelihood. Having a bad hitter at the plate would INCREASE the advantage of a stolen base. Especially if he hits into a lot of double plays due to being slow, right-handed, or just hitting a lot of ground balls.

By the way, the figures I used were on the low end of the "break-even" point. It's generally accepted to be closer to 80% success rate, but obviously that is an average number and will be higher or lower depending on situation. For a team like Toronto with the best slugging in the league and being hard-pressed for base runners, wasting an out by getting caught stealing is a really bad thing to do. That means the break-even point would be even higher. 85%? Maybe higher? Hard to know exactly without looking deeper. But I know from experience that most old-school announcers that love steals tend to be in favour of completely destroying any chances teams have of scoring runs and they justify it to themselves when it seems to work once in a while.

I agree that it's more fun to watch if you have some speedy guys running around rather than having a slow guy take walks, but it really isn't beneficial in the long-run most of the time unless you can steal at a very high success rate. The reason it's still popular is because there are all of these perceived intangibles that come along with base stealing which are pretty insignificant in terms of scoring runs. How do you discredit something when it's defenders claim it's virtues are "intangible". You can't. And that my friends, is how Derek Jeter has won 5 gold gloves awards. People don't like to believe it's so simple as getting on base and hitting for power, but it is. I'm at work right now or else I'd go grab a couple links to articles about this. It's not as abstract and hypothetical as it seems.

You go up to bat with a guy at 1st, I'll go up to bat with a guy at 2nd. Assuming you're the better hitter, chances are I'll still win.

If a guy was 100% at stealing bases, you'd have a point. But what if he's caught stealing? You lose a baserunner, as well as losing an out. And your chances of scoring a run are shot to hell. Even bad hitters get on base 30% of the time. Patience is a virtue... go by the numbers and in the end it'll pay off.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

I'm not sure I understand your post clearly, but you're saying getting a Rajai Davis negatively impacts this team?

[Blade_Runner]

Davis is one of which should be at least two acquistions to increase the OBP and steals in the lineup. This Upton rumour sounds good, but is it time?