nate33 wrote:I don't think the salary cap situation is quite so hopeless. Remember, regardless of what McGee's actual contract will be in 2012, he's only going to count for, at most, the cost of his cap hold. IIRC, that's just 300% of his 2011 salary, or $7.4M. So our 2012 payroll projects to be just $44.4M with a lineup including: Wall, McGee, Blatche, Arenas, Booker and Seraphin. Throw in a rookie salary for each of the next two seasons and it's about $48M.
But wouldn't you expect an early extension for McGee instead of him and his cap hold heading into restricted free agency? The lesson as of now seems to be "give your guys extensions. I think Rudy Gay wanted $65 million the summer before he signed for $82. Horford and Noah are bellow market value. Admittedly, Portland seems to have overpaid.
I suppose if we worked a contract to where he had 10.5% annual salary increases in there, it could be to where his first year salary is not that far from the $7.2 million dollar cap hold figure, but that makes trouble down the road and probably isn't the way Ted wants to play it (credit card culture, basically).
If we were to plug in a $45-$50 million dollar extension for Javale with flat salaries (like the Horford extension), our 2012 figure would be about $50-51 million.
To me, the real dilemma is whether we should focus on acquiring a big talent in 2012, or should we just take things one season at a time and try to acquire quality players on reasonable contracts as they become available. Should we sign Wilson Chandler and extend Nick Young this offseason and go into next year with the same basic lineup but with slightly better fits at swing man? Or do we stick with Cartier Martin and Alonzo Gee on one year contracts and keep our powder dry until 2012?
Yeah, that is amongst the most pertinent questions that they'll have to sort out and there's a few variables there to be sure. This next upcoming signing period is richer in wings (particularly small forwards) than the next year over, especially if we're talking about guys who can be realistically acquired (New York cannot match on Chandler, for example). The 2008 free agent market has some nice players and they'll be available in the summer of 2012.
All told, I think the case for maintaining the cap space and not signing someone right after the lockout (Chandler) would have more to do with flexibility for either one of those 'disgruntled superstar' trades or if a BOYD deal falls into our laps. As far as signings, I'd expect we could do as well in the immediate post lockout signing period as we could in 2012.
If we can trade Arenas for any crappy contracts that expire in 2012, it would sure give us a golden opportunity to make a huge splash.
I actually have an idea, except that it's hamstrung by the CBA uncertainty and is fairly ugly and expensive.
Long story short, trade Gil for Baron Davis and have Davis exercise the ETO on his 2013 salary in exchange for a Nick Collison like signing bonus in 2012 (Larry Coon says the timing on exercising depends on the language in each individual contract). Waive Baron before the start of the 2012 season and he's got two year's of free agency to recoup any dollar differences.
The problem is all that would be worked out under the new CBA, so it probably won't work, especially if they lower the max salary threshold.
It's highly unlikely, but the best scenario to me is if Sacramento decides that they're dysfunctional (they are) and that Gil could help their chemistry (the national media would laugh, but I think most everyone here would disagree). Beno and Garcia aren't bad and, at worst, you could probably trade Beno for James Posey, who expires a year earlier. But it's unlikely that a team like the Kings commits to a big salary right before the CBA.
But it's not going to be easy to move Gil's deal. I'm even thinking that the "playoff contender makes a push" scenario is starting to sound precarious just because most genuine contenders already have so much money committed. Detroit, Toronto and the Clips are looking more likely to me. Unless a miracle happens and Carmelo says something like "I'll sign an extension in Denver, but get me Gilbert Arenas!"
