Okay, I'll explain the chart(s). Each chart illustrates a different offensive flow but either will serve for explanation purposes.
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/7289/currentheat.jpg
http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/2402/kobeheat.jpg
http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/8738/bronbal.jpg
Basically though, the chart postulates that a team must be good at outside shooting, have a good post game and also a dedicated wing scorer or scorers that can get them go to baskets.
The chart only focuses on the top three players, as unless you have two extraordinary talents that compliment one another very well in most cases you need three good players to win. It also serves the purposes of dissecting the Miami Heat well and illustrating the problems with Bosh quite nicely (if all three of these players USG's from last year were combined they would comprise something like 95+% of a teams offense so this really does show the issues they are encountering right now).
That said, the chart could theoretically expand to cover an entire basketball team if need be.
Again the basic idea is as follows:
On the offensive end: (The defensive end is an entirely different story and one not covered by this chart, although a great defense can cover for weaknesses in other offensive areas e.g. 04' Detroit Pistons)
Outside shooting, a good post game and a great wing/ISO presence is required on some level to generate points for ones team. The hypothesis is that in regard to weight in today's NBA a focus of 50% ISO/star based plays, 30% post presence and 20% outside shooting is required. The weights explain why a team with no great star on the perimeter ever wins (with a few exceptions).
The perfect use of each player on a team would have each player 100% specializing in the skill they are most good at, offensively.
However, because there are only so many touches available and only so many plays can be dedicated to ________ while maintaining offensive efficiency, in practice a player ends up delving in a multitude of roles if they are a star player.
Let's look at chart one:
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/7289/currentheat.jpg
^^ Above we have the current big three of the Miami Heat. Their ability level in a given skill is the first number in a cell, and their current role in the offense would be represented in parenthesis.
These numbers are NOT meant to be exact numbers of a players ability level or role in the present Heat offense. Rather, they are meant to illustrate how even if you have three trans-formative talents (all three of those players would rate out as top 5-7 talents offensively based on the criteria listed above) if their skill sets are redundant they may still have a weakness in their team.
As you can see from the chart, Lebron, Wade and Bosh are all very good iso/go to scorers. Their rankings are 9/9/7.5, respectively. However, since they can only dedicate so much of the offense to iso based plays, they must divide the players between the three of them (40/40/20). The players must then get the rest of their touches in areas they don't specialize. The net affect is guys like Bosh predominantly jump shooting and posting up (even if they're bad at it) because they are the best option on the team to do so. And so a team with three top offensive talents can't make use of them.
Now let's take a look at what happens when we put Lebron in Kobe's place:
http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/2402/kobeheat.jpg
Here, the offensive efficiency sky rockets. Even though Kobe's absolute efficiency is only a fraction of Lebron's (45 for Lebron which would happen if he was 100% ISO/Bronball versus 40 for Kobe in that same scenario), he is a much better fit for this team. By adding Kobe to the team, Bosh can leave the post and take less jumpers (Kobe will do those things instead). In fact, Kobe will spend LESS time doing his specialty (iso based play) than anything else in favor of a less efficient player doing it. The effect?
Overall ISO/go to scoring declines while the team's net efficiency goes way up. Even though it would be most efficient for the offense in some ways for the best ISO player to get all of the ISO touches (a Kobe/Wade split) and the worst player to take less of the ISO offense (Bosh ala current Heat), the offense as a whole would suffer because then that player is forced to do things he isn't good at.
By using comparative advantage, however, and in some ways (ISO offense) acting at a loss the team ultimately gets at a net gain.
Now let's look at the dangers of Bronball:
http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/8738/bronbal.jpg
^^ Here, Lebron dominates the ball and go to scoring is at an absolute premium, as are his numbers. However, as a result not only are the other star players unhappy (resulting in a net decrease in their efficacy), but they are forced to spend most of their time and ability doing things they have comparatively little skill at (resulting in a huge waste of their talents).
Theoretically, Lebron could just take on ALL of the offensive load, but at that point he would experience a net decrease in efficiency (i.e. the ability score) due to fatigue and being the absolute focus of the defense. I didn't chart this, but basically imagine that as the % of the three offensive categories Lebron shoulders increases his ability level in each decreases due to fatigue.
That said, Bronball interestingly becomes much more effective if we take Wade and Bosh out and replace them with two shooters with 8's or 9's in the category (even if they have no iso or post ability). I didn't do a chart for this, but you can do the math.
In the playoffs, however, when defenses at the upper levels lower Lebron's offensive efficacy by honing in on him he will need another star player to take the pressure off. This is why Bronball always fails even though during the regular season it has incredible efficiency.
There, you see is the catch 22.
In order for Lebron to be able to play with star players they need to complement each other, but his one dimensional ball dominant style makes this impossible.
Final note: The total sum can be looked at as a W/L record/championship score, with a 65 being the cutoff point for a championship shoo in. As you can see, trading Lebron for Kobe would lead to a championship shoo in despite Lebron's absolute higher efficiency, due to the fact he (Lebron) doesn't fit with the other star players.
Obviously this is rough as I came up with in it like an hour, but I think it represents my thoughts.
I think I'll refine this, copyright it and call it championship theory or something and send it to ESPN. ^_^References:
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/7289/currentheat.jpg
http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/2402/kobeheat.jpg
http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/8738/bronbal.jpg
P.S. You always hear people saying "Even though player A has a higher PER player B is better because he has a better all around game." This explains that thinking.
