My statistical analysis of the Washington Wizards.

[Gilfanatic123]

I have been thinking a lot about the woes causing the Wizard's problems and I think I've found the solution to our problems: we need more defense and more ball movement. It seems that the Wizards tend to rely on players like Gilbert Arenas, John Wall and Andray Blatche so much that they don't really utilize their other players as much and because they don't have the same team chemistry as other teams do that's why we lose many of our games. As for why I did this statistical analysis of the Wizards... I was bored, so I just thought I'd share my findings. All of these statistics were acquired via the use of www.nba.com. So, here you go. People act like statistics don't really matter that much... but I think that some of the insights that one can gain from looking at the Wizard's statistics can be pretty revealing.

Let's see... the Wizards score 97.67 points per game while allowing 104.75 points per game. Not counting the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference-- they basically are allowing too many points and they're playing offense as if they have a lot of great people who can score... but in reality we don't. Our FG percentage is .445- the third lowest in the conference tied with New Jersey, only Cleveland and New Jersey are worse than us. We allow an FG percentage of .475-- the most of any team in the conference. Our 3pt field goal percentage is also the third worst in the eastern conference with just a measly .333 and we allow our opponents to score the 2nd highest 3 point field goal percentage on us in the conference- at .381. However, our free throw percentage, and our assist ratio isn't that bad. We are one of the better teams at passing the ball around in the conference-- at 20.63 assists. Only 4 teams in the league have a better assist statistic than the Wizards in the conference can be attributed partially to the back court trio of John Wall, Gilbert Arenas, and Kirk Heinreich.

Now, I'm going to look at the individual players statistics, and see who should be shooting more and who should be shooting less. According to www.nba.com- this is the current stat line (point per game wise) of the current players on the Wizards.

Gilbert Arenas- 18.1 PPG
John Wall- 18.0 PPG
Andray Blatche- 16.6 PPG
Nick Young- 11.9 PPG
Kirk Heinrich- 10.9 PPG
Al Thorton- 10.6 PPG
Javale McGee- 9.8 PPG
Yi Jinlian- 7.6 PPG
Alonzo Gee- 4.3 PPG
Cartier Martin- 3.9 PPG
Trevor Booker- 3.1 PPG
Kevin Seraphin- 2.4 PPG
Hilton Armstrong- 2.7 PPG
Hamady Ndiaye- .7 PPG
Lester Hudson- .3 PPG

Gilbert Arenas has taken 62 shots in the last 3 games and has scored about an average of 25 points over the past 3 games. John Wall has been out for a while, but in his last 3 games on November 25th, November 23rd, and November 13th he's taken 41 shots and he's averaged 17 points per game. In the last 3 games for Andray Blatche he's taken 40 shots and he's averaged about 13 points per game for the past 3 games. For Nick Young- Nick Young in the past 3 games has shot the ball 44 times, and has scored an average about 18 points per game (he averages 11.9 points during the regular season). Kirk Hinrich has shot the ball 26 times over the past 3 games and has scored about 7.333 points per game for the last 3 games. Javale McGee has shot the ball 20 times over the past 3 games and has scored about 6.5 points per game for the last 3 games. I'm not going to even bother describing what the statistics are like for the other bench players on the Wizards team because I think it's obvious that it's not that they are bad players (the Wizard's bench) they just don't get used as nearly as much.

I think from looking at the statistics it becomes apparent that for at least the major starters when the team doesn't do well (I'd have to compare it to other times when the team does well) the players on the team actually don't pass the ball as much as they should. So even though we have one of the higher assist ratios in the league- the people who are more ball dominant need to pass to the other players so they can get more of a chance. What happens- and I guess this is something that we might want to look for is not really that we're not playing as a team- but when you have 3 players on a team that are ball dominant... it's kind of like the Heat. They're going to take all the shots and while they should do that so we can score baskets... they need to distribute the ball even more than they are doing currently. The ball dominant players on the Wizards tend to get more touches and the other players don't seem to get the touches as much which is why we don't have more evenly distributed scoring.

[nate33]

While I appreciate the effort, that's not really much of analysis. You've merely pointed out that we are an inefficient offensive team and a poor defensive team. I think that much was understood. You come to the conclusion that our inefficiency is due to poor passing. I fail to see how you make that leap when you rightfully pointed out that we actually have a high assist ratio.

[Gilfanatic123]

While I appreciate the effort, that's not really much of analysis. You've merely pointed out that we are an inefficient offensive team and a poor defensive team. I think that much was understood. You come to the conclusion that our inefficiency is due to poor passing. I fail to see how you make that leap when you rightfully pointed out that we actually have a high assist ratio.

What I meant by that is that we have poor passing with who we pass to. The question with passing isn't that we don't pass the ball around but that we don't pass the ball around more. We keep relaying the ball to Andray Blatche, Gilbert Arenas and John Wall while we don't pass the ball to the rest of the other team. I thought that my analysis showed that there was a lack of distribution among the shots taken which is dominated by the big 3 and the rest of the team, hence why we don't have an efficient offense. It's not how many passes we make- but the passes we make aren't well and we keep relying on the same players to sccore.

[nate33]

I disagree. All players get a certain number of "gimme" buckets from fastbreaks, putbacks, and from good assists around the basket. Accordingly, all extremely low-usage players should shoot a good percentage, but that is in no way indicative of their ability to maintain a good shooting percentage with a higher usage rate.

Clearly, Arenas, Wall, Blatche and Young are our best offensive players (maybe you can throw Thornton in there, though he has been pretty bad of late). McGee, Booker, Seraphin, Martin and Gee are not the type of guys that you give the ball to and ask them to score. If you forcefeed those guys, they're likely to shoot at a lower percentage than Arenas, Wall, Blatche and Young.

For the most part, I don't think our problem is the distribution of shots (except with Blatche). Our problem is that we don't run the offense well enough to get easy buckets. Our bigs (except Booker) set lousy picks and Hinrich and Wall pound the ball too much. The one area where we could probably stand to redistribute the offensive load a bit is with Blatche and McGee. I think Blatche forces too many bad shots and I think it might be safe to try and go to McGee once or twice a game in the half court set.

[FreeBalling]

Nate do you coach a little league basketball team?

[nate33]

Nate do you coach a little league basketball team?

As a matter of fact, I'll be coaching little league basketball for the first time starting in two weeks (for my 9-year-old daughter). I've coached little league soccer for 7 seasons and I've coached swim teams at all levels (club, high school and college).

[pancakes3]

wow, tip of the hat for coaching kids' soccer, nate. in my opinion, soccer has got to be one of the hardest sports to coach. the kids get tired too quickly, it's hard to teach/learn, there are tons of mistakes, lots of on-field ADD to deal with... and 7 seasons! you've got the patience of a saint.

as to the OP...

1 - your stats don't suggest or even support your claims. give us usg, %assisted, assist-win r-values, SOMETHING.
2 - your intro "thesis" and your final "conclusion" don't match up (you started off saying we need more defense and to pass more in the beginning and ended by saying that gil/blatche/wall shoot too much).
3 - your secondary conclusion that we have a core trio shoots disproportionately large amounts is false. every team has a trio that hogs the shots. EVERY team - even the egalitarian 2004 pistons.

i actually think like we have a fairly balanced team since it seems like whoever starts is guaranteed to hit double-figure scoring averages. wall and arenas are capable scorers, thornton is a great off-ball slasher/cutter, blatche is a legitimate low post option, and mcgee gets his off soley off fast breaks and o-boards.

as for nate's suggestion that we run a designed play for mcgee ever so often... well if you feel like he's good enough to warrant touches, why not post him up more than 2x a game? i personally don't trust his sweeping running hook, but hypothetically if the matchup is good enough we should go to him more than just once per half. however, if the matchup isn't kosher, nix it.

[Ruzious]

They obviously have to improve the poor FG and 3 point FG shooting percentages. They have players who can score and create and pass, but it comes down to poor shot selection by the team - as a whole. This is really deja vu all over again, because we had the same problem last season - before and after the veterans went away. Part of it's youth, part is vets staying healthy, and the third half is getting used to playing together. But ultimately, players gotta play consistently smart. We knew it was a rebuilding team, and there have been injuries, so it really shouldn't be a surprise.

[daSwami]

I question Flip's use of Blatche in our half-court set (best i can tell - a modified "triangle" with the ONE being the primary scoring option). It appears as if Blatche's main job is to set the high screen for either Wall or Gil, which often leaves him out on the perimeter in a catch-and-shoot role, effectively "neutering" him. If Flip insists on using Blatche in a perimeter capacity, it might be a wiser option to put him on the wing where he could better utilize his offensive skill-set using angles ala George Gervin.

[JWizmentality]

Nate do you coach a little league basketball team?

As a matter of fact, I'll be coaching little league basketball for the first time starting in two weeks (for my 9-year-old daughter). I've coached little league soccer for 7 seasons and I've coached swim teams at all levels (club, high school and college).

What?!? Are you a foot...er...soccer fan? Why didn't you say so. We'd have loads to talk about.

[penbeast0]

Everyone with kids is a de facto soccer fan -- especially in the DC area; otherwise it's just those who played the sport or have strong overseas ties.

[tontoz]

It seems that the Wizards tend to rely on players like Gilbert Arenas, John Wall and Andray Blatche so much.

I think the fact that these three have only played a total of 67 minutes together on the season is big reason why the offense has struggled.

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011WAS2.HTM

Throw in the facts that two of them are recovering from injuries and one is a rookie.....

[nate33]

Nate do you coach a little league basketball team?

As a matter of fact, I'll be coaching little league basketball for the first time starting in two weeks (for my 9-year-old daughter). I've coached little league soccer for 7 seasons and I've coached swim teams at all levels (club, high school and college).

What?!? Are you a foot...er...soccer fan? Why didn't you say so. We'd have loads to talk about.

No. I'm not much of a soccer fan. I know enough soccer (from my own little league experience and from a few books) to teach girls from age 6 to 10. At that age, coaching is just coaching. The sport doesn't really matter much. You're just trying to motivate the kids, get them to have a good time, and teach them fundamentals. As my daughter gets older, I'm going to have to turn her over to a real coach who truly knows the game. I'll move on to coach my younger daughter (age 7) and then my son (age 5) next.

The only sports where I feel comfortable coaching up to a high school level are basketball and swimming.

[JonathanJoseph]

It seems that the Wizards tend to rely on players like Gilbert Arenas, John Wall and Andray Blatche so much.

I think the fact that these three have only played a total of 67 minutes together on the season is big reason why the offense has struggled.

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011WAS2.HTM

Throw in the facts that two of them are recovering from injuries and one is a rookie.....

+1

[JWizmentality]

No. I'm not much of a soccer fan. I know enough soccer (from my own little league experience and from a few books) to teach girls from age 6 to 10. At that age, coaching is just coaching. The sport doesn't really matter much. You're just trying to motivate the kids, get them to have a good time, and teach them fundamentals. As my daughter gets older, I'm going to have to turn her over to a real coach who truly knows the game. I'll move on to coach my younger daughter (age 7) and then my son (age 5) next.

The only sports where I feel comfortable coaching up to a high school level are basketball and swimming.

eh....poser.

[Illuminaire]

/tangent on

Soccer taught me everything I know about basketball. =p

I really mean that. Spacing, coordinated movements off the ball, passing... soccer basically defines how I think about other sports. It's actually kind of funny, I only took up basketball as a hobby (and as a more serious fan) after I used up my college soccer eligibility and still needed an organized sports fix.

/tangent off

[Gilfanatic123]

I disagree. All players get a certain number of "gimme" buckets from fastbreaks, putbacks, and from good assists around the basket. Accordingly, all extremely low-usage players should shoot a good percentage, but that is in no way indicative of their ability to maintain a good shooting percentage with a higher usage rate.

Clearly, Arenas, Wall, Blatche and Young are our best offensive players (maybe you can throw Thornton in there, though he has been pretty bad of late). McGee, Booker, Seraphin, Martin and Gee are not the type of guys that you give the ball to and ask them to score. If you forcefeed those guys, they're likely to shoot at a lower percentage than Arenas, Wall, Blatche and Young.

For the most part, I don't think our problem is the distribution of shots (except with Blatche). Our problem is that we don't run the offense well enough to get easy buckets. Our bigs (except Booker) set lousy picks and Hinrich and Wall pound the ball too much. The one area where we could probably stand to redistribute the offensive load a bit is with Blatche and McGee. I think Blatche forces too many bad shots and I think it might be safe to try and go to McGee once or twice a game in the half court set.

I will agree with you that you don't necessarily want all these other players shooting a lot of shots when they can't score. But think about it. Nick Young and Javale McGee go off when they have good games. So you need to pass them the ball when they shoot. Obviously we need the big 3... maybe not Blatche so much even though he's doing pretty well- when he's not doing well- pass the ball around. We shouldn't rely on the big 3 so much and like with our bench players-- we need to get them involved more down low. What are some of these people thinking when they take jumpers? Yi should go inside more. I really don't like it when he takes a long 2 pointer... even though he can make them.

[Gilfanatic123]

wow, tip of the hat for coaching kids' soccer, nate. in my opinion, soccer has got to be one of the hardest sports to coach. the kids get tired too quickly, it's hard to teach/learn, there are tons of mistakes, lots of on-field ADD to deal with... and 7 seasons! you've got the patience of a saint.

as to the OP...

1 - your stats don't suggest or even support your claims. give us usg, %assisted, assist-win r-values, SOMETHING.
2 - your intro "thesis" and your final "conclusion" don't match up (you started off saying we need more defense and to pass more in the beginning and ended by saying that gil/blatche/wall shoot too much).
3 - your secondary conclusion that we have a core trio shoots disproportionately large amounts is false. every team has a trio that hogs the shots. EVERY team - even the egalitarian 2004 pistons.

i actually think like we have a fairly balanced team since it seems like whoever starts is guaranteed to hit double-figure scoring averages. wall and arenas are capable scorers, thornton is a great off-ball slasher/cutter, blatche is a legitimate low post option, and mcgee gets his off soley off fast breaks and o-boards.

as for nate's suggestion that we run a designed play for mcgee ever so often... well if you feel like he's good enough to warrant touches, why not post him up more than 2x a game? i personally don't trust his sweeping running hook, but hypothetically if the matchup is good enough we should go to him more than just once per half. however, if the matchup isn't kosher, nix it.

Are you suggesting that we our individual players are doing the best that they can do and that we're just not a very good offensive team outside from our big 3? Because I have thought of that possibility- I should have put that in my OP. I just think that there are some people out there that deserve more looks. Like Nick Young has been getting a lot more looks lately, but more people like NY, Kirk Heinrich, and McGee should be used more often in addition to our current big 3.

Maybe not so much with the bench players... but I just think that while it may be that our offense is being utilized to the max and we just need more defense and we can't beat other teams by scoring- if some of the big 3 took less shots and let other people shoot, maybe we might get more people going with their shooting... I just think if these 3 people are taking all the shots maybe that's why our FG% is so low and other people should shoot so when these people are cold other people can take control of the game.