dogrufus wrote:erudite23 wrote:
Steals is a major sticking point, because it contributes massively to Paul's edge in PER as well as some of the other advanced metrics. Truthfully, there are only a few players in the league that seriously contribute in steals who are actual defensive impact guys. Then there are the handful of guys that pile up the steals while being mediocre--or even poor--defenders. Allen Iverson is the face of this group, though there have been many such players to fit the description down through the ages. There are many and varied opinions on how good each of these players is defensively. What I think we CAN conclude is that Paul's ability to produce steals is not reflected in his ability as a defensive player on the whole. No one but Paul nuthuggers think that CP is even above average defensively, as its plainly obvious that he's not. Yet steals (as well as blocks) as a statistic, and when included in PER, can only be taken as a players contribution as a defender. Since its clear that Paul isn't noticeably better than Deron defensively (and, in my own opinion, isn't anywhere close to him in that regard, but I digress) how does it make sense to include steals as a legitimate statistical measure? It doesn't, really. Any more than it did/does to do it with Allen Iverson, Dwayne Wade, Steve Francis, Stephen Curry, Baron Davis, etc.
Alright, your post was generally good and well thought out, but it's about time someone spoke up for steals. Steals are one of the most valuable things you can contribute to your team. A steal is pretty much worth two possessions. You end the opponent's possession with no possibility of them scoring, and you in turn get a possession where you will very likely get a very high quality shot. A PG who can get you three more steals a game is better than a PG who will get you three less turnovers.
It's getting to the point where people have gone on so much about how steals are overrated that they are actually now underrated. Yes, there have been some players who gamble for steals too indiscriminately while neglecting good man defense to the point of sometimes hurting the team. But a lot of big steals guys were also some of the best overall defenders at their position. Are you going to tell me that Jordan, prime Artest, or Gary Payton weren't good defenders? Some players have the quickness and smarts to get a lot of steals while also playing good man defense. Forcing turnovers is a huge, huge part of good defense. The way its importance is completely written off on these boards puzzles me.
If Deron is such a better defender, why has Paul had a consistently much better Drtg? Deron's career best mark is 107, which Paul has beat every year but last year (when he wasn't 100%). This year he's at 98. How good is that for a guard? Walt Frazier has a career Drtg of 98. No guard in history has a career Drtg of 97 or better. Deron has an advantage defensively in that he can guard some swingmen decently. But Paul is a better defender at the PG position and helps his team's defense much more.
erudite23 wrote:So is there more to it than stats, or is that all? Is it possible that Deron's ability to be the lynchpin of a system that has produced one of the league's best FG% offenses for years running means something? And is it just a matter of circumstance that his offenses are so much better than CP's? Is it a coincidence that the Jazz have had a better FG% and eFG% (despite being much less proficient from the 3pt line) than the Hornets every year since their rookie seasons? And, while its true that the Hornets have limited TOs much better than the Jazz, isn't it funny that the Jazz have been significantly better every.single.season. in offensive rating than the Hornets?
I love when people engage in this kind of navel-gazing when pondering why one player has more team success than another. Maybe it's because one player's team has significantly more overall talent? MJ lost plenty of playoff series while he was clearly the best player in the league. This season has revealed that the guy the Jazz were calling their backup PF is actually better than anyone Chris Paul has ever played with. The Jazz are a premier organization in this league and have been among the best coached and managed for 20 years. The Hornets have moved to a dead city, have no fan support and sketchy ownership and management.
Deron's offenses have been better because he had two big men better than Chris Paul's best big. Now that he only has one so far this season, the Hornets have the better offense than the Jazz thus far. As for the impact of the individual players, the evidence is overwhelming that Paul is better.
Deron Williams is a great PG and he runs his offense will, with an Ortg of 115 this season and a career high of 118. Paul, on the other hand, is on par with Nash as an offensive PG. His Ortg has been above 120 the past 4 seasons. Twice it has been
better than Steve Nash's career high. Paul leads all active players in Ortg. Deron Williams is a great PG and in most eras he'd be the best in the league easily. But Chris Paul right now increases the efficiency of an offense more than any player in the league- more than Kobe, more than LeBron, more than Deron, and it's a cold hard statistical fact.
