Official Trade Thread XIV: 6/14/10 - 12/22/10

[20MexicanosIn1Van]

If we end up trading Arenas for an expiring, I'd rather see it happen before the 2012 off-season when we expect to make our big free agency splash. An Arenas-Carter swap would make us a brutally bad team and I really don't want to see the Wizards develop a losing culture to start off the John Wall era.

I have been as harsh on Blatche as anyone this season, but I think he has more value than Rashard Lewis.

[Wizardspride]

So I follow Prada on Twitter, and he retweeted a link to some Orlando beat reporter suggesting that the Magic and Wizards are engaged in trade talks:

The RUMORED deal is Arenas and Blatche for Carter, Lewis, and Daniel Orton. At least those are the pieces being talked about.

So we get older and less athletic....great.

[sashae]

What if we ended up with the rights to Fran Vasquez? We haven't had a Spanish player to pine over since the La Bomba era, could bring back old times!

[dlts20]

Mike Prada is an idiot. Why the hell would we do that? Lewis has just 1yr lesser on his contract than Gil's and thats meaningless because Gil's contract will be an expiring that year. Essentialy its trading Gil for Lewis straight up, which is dumb. Then its trading Dray's great contract for VC's expiring. Why do that when Dray's contract isnt big anyways? All we're getting out of this is Orton and I dont think he will be anything special

[Wizardspride]

Mike Prada is an idiot. Why the hell would we do that? Lewis has just 1yr lesser on his contract than Gil's and thats meaningless because Gil's contract will be an expiring that year. Essentialy its trading Gil for Lewis straight up, which is dumb. Then its trading Dray's great contract for VC's expiring. Why do that when Dray's contract isnt big anyways? All we're getting out of this is Orton and I dont think he will be anything special

It doesn't make much sense to me either but I get the sense that Ernie's logic is a different than ours.

[DallasShalDune]

I do sense that Ernie had no love for Gilbert.

[nate33]

So I follow Prada on Twitter, and he retweeted a link to some Orlando beat reporter suggesting that the Magic and Wizards are engaged in trade talks:

The RUMORED deal is Arenas and Blatche for Carter, Lewis, and Daniel Orton. At least those are the pieces being talked about.

Yea that's definitely not the deal being discussed, because it doesn't come even remotely close to working financially. My guess is that the Wiz want a simple Arenas for Carter swap, and the Magic are wanting Blatche to be included. The Wizards are saying no, and the Magic are countering with Lewis for Arenas.

In the end, I forsee Arenas for Carter straight up.

This.

Nothing to worry about here. The deal as discussed is impossible, and EG isn't this stupid. Clearly, the Wizards are interested in swapping Arenas for Carter, and the Magic are countering with Arenas for Lewis. The first trade is unacceptable for Orlando, and the second trade is unacceptable to us. So they're exploring various "sweetener" ideas such as us including Blatche in the Arenas/VC swap, or them including Orton (and perhaps others) in the Areans/Lewis swap.

I would not do Arenas for Lewis and I seriously doubt EG would either. Lewis is actually paid $2M per year more than Arenas so the deal costs us and additional $6M over the next three years before saving us $23M in Year 4. The net savings is just $17M, or an average or $4M a year. I'd say $4M a year is a pretty miniscule savings for the talent downgrade of Arenas to Lewis. Indeed, the trade actually hurts our salary cap situation this summer and next summer - when we actually will be in the market from a big time free agent.

I totally understand why we would swap Arenas for Carter. There's no need to rehash it in depth now, but the bottom line is that management presumably believes that saving $60M is worth the downgrade in talent. I share everyone's concerns about the prospects of having a disgruntled Vince Carter on our roster for the next 65 games. I assume that we would seek to send Carter to a third team.

The one thing that concerns me is that management might seriously consider including Blatche as sweetener in an Arenas for Carter trade. It's worth noting that the provision of Orton on Orlando's side gets the trade within $600K of fitting into the 125% exemption.

[Wizardspride]

I do sense that Ernie had no love for Gilbert.

It might be in Gil's best interest for him to be traded.

Nobody wants to be somewhere where they aren't welcome.

[DallasShalDune]

I do sense that Ernie had no love for Gilbert.

It might be in Gil's best interest for him to be traded.

Nobody wants to be somewhere where they aren't welcome.

I'd argue Flip, the players, and a majority of the fans love him on the team, however. Ted is hard to read, though, and I really have no clue on what his opinion of Gil is. He is probably a realist, and thinks along the lines of what Nate is saying--it is worth dumping 60 mil even if it means losing more games this year.

[Dat2U]

Worth noting
Arenas and Wall have shared the court for just 84 out of a possible 768 minutes this season.

-Mike Prada at Bulletsforever

And I wonder how many of those minutes included Hinrich at SF?

[Dat2U]

Gil for VC? Okay, I'd understand. Gil is an injury risk and not worth his contract. VC would offer us no help though. He'd either want a buyout to go to a contender or he'd quit on us. High lottery pick here we come.

Gil/Blatche for Shard/Orton? An absolute disaster of a trade. If Ernie agrees to something like that I doubt Leonsis would sign off on it and if he does, we are in deep deep trouble going forward.

Any deal including Shard AND Carter won't work because they make too much.

[Spence]

Trade doesn't look possible to me, but even if it was, it's awful. Why in the world would the Wizards want Rashard Lewis? I understand being frustrated with Andray Blatche, but they'd be trading a young, probably-improving, contact-shy power forward for an older, definitely-not-improving, even-more-contact-shy "power' forward who costs a lot more. I wouldn't mind if the Wiz got their mitts on Daniel Orton, but not at this price.

If the Wiz are determined to trade Arenas, what's the hurry?* The guy is playing well and if he keeps playing well, his trade value will improve.

*Before he gets injured again?

[Wizardspride]

Trade doesn't look possible to me, but even if it was, it's awful. Why in the world would the Wizards want Rashard Lewis? I understand being frustrated with Andray Blatche, but they'd be trading a young, probably-improving, contact-shy power forward for an older, definitely-not-improving, even-more-contact-shy "power' forward who costs a lot more. I wouldn't mind if the Wiz got their mitts on Daniel Orton, but not at this price.

If the Wiz are determined to trade Arenas, what's the hurry?* The guy is playing well and if he keeps playing well, his trade value will improve.

*Before he gets injured again?

+1

[nate33]

If we do end up swapping Arenas for Carter, it would really open the door for the Trojan Horse Scenario. Arenas could get hurt or simply night quite meet expectations. Orlando could fail to get to the Finals in each of the next two years. In 2012, Orlando would have an astronomical payroll of $75M, NOT including Dwight Howard!

Howard would be up for extension.

Meanwhile, the Wizards will be an up and coming team featuring Wall, Young, 2011 (high) draft pick, 2012 draft pick, Booker, Blatche, Seraphin and McGee, plus maybe $25-30M in cap room.

[Wizardspride]

If we do end up swapping Arenas for Carter, it would really open the door for the Trojan Horse Scenario. Arenas could get hurt or simply night quite meet expectations. Orlando could fail to get to the Finals in each of the next two years. In 2012, Orlando would have an astronomical payroll of $75M, NOT including Dwight Howard!

Howard would be up for extension.

Meanwhile, the Wizards will be an up and coming team featuring Wall, Young, 2011 (high) draft pick, 2012 draft pick, Booker, Blatche, Seraphin and McGee, plus maybe $25-30M in cap room.

I can think of another scenario as well.

A less appealing one.

But I'll stay optimistic, and envision your scenario.

[FAH1223]

This can't be happening.

Oh wait, we're the Wizards.

Hate Ernie Grunfeld.

I don't mind GA being traded, but Blatche too? WTF?

[Shanghai Kid]

If we do end up swapping Arenas for Carter, it would really open the door for the Trojan Horse Scenario. Arenas could get hurt or simply night quite meet expectations. Orlando could fail to get to the Finals in each of the next two years. In 2012, Orlando would have an astronomical payroll of $75M, NOT including Dwight Howard!

Howard would be up for extension.

Meanwhile, the Wizards will be an up and coming team featuring Wall, Young, 2011 (high) draft pick, 2012 draft pick, Booker, Blatche, Seraphin and McGee, plus maybe $25-30M in cap room.

I see the opposite. Arenas helps out Orlando big time, and they along with Miami, dominate our division for the next five years.

[Wizardspride]

If we do end up swapping Arenas for Carter, it would really open the door for the Trojan Horse Scenario. Arenas could get hurt or simply night quite meet expectations. Orlando could fail to get to the Finals in each of the next two years. In 2012, Orlando would have an astronomical payroll of $75M, NOT including Dwight Howard!

Howard would be up for extension.

Meanwhile, the Wizards will be an up and coming team featuring Wall, Young, 2011 (high) draft pick, 2012 draft pick, Booker, Blatche, Seraphin and McGee, plus maybe $25-30M in cap room.

I see the opposite. Arenas helps out Orlando big time, and they along with Miami, dominate our division for the next five years.

Thats what I believe as well.

[Wizardspride]

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Chat.asp?CHAT ... z16t7OxIv0

Jerry in Navarre:

What do you think about the new interest reported about a Arenas/Cater and fillers swap?



Steve Kyler:

Bogus... it was shot down almost immediately... For some reason writers want to beleive Otis Smith would trade for Gilbert and his awful contract because they are friends.

They are forgetting that while Otis can make suggestions, there are a lot of people that would have to bless that move and none of them would buy into Gilbert.

[ErikChowbay023]

So its just rumors and BS right?