Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate?

[BarneyGumble]

It would make sense to call me a homer if everything I have been saying is false. You can defend losing with superior shooting numbers all you want, but I'll keep the guy who leads his team to wins, always.

Ok then Rajon Rondo is the best PG in the NBA by your standard.

Apparently we're not allowed to consider the level of talent a player's team has had while evaluating their success, so Rondo has been the best PG in the NBA since 2008. He's won a ring and been to 2 Finals.

Why are we even debating Williams and Paul? It should be Rondo vs. everyone else.

There are alot of people agree with you here for this very point, and choose Rondo. Rondo definitely deserves to be in the back seat with these guys.

[dogrufus]

I'd say its generally a far better indicator of defensive performance, since defense is all about moving your feet and getting into good position. Leaders in drawn charges much closer resemble a list of high quality defenders than that of steals or blocked shots. And a drawn charge has at least as much value as a steal because it turns the ball over, gets the opposing player in foul trouble and helps push the other team into the bonus (which leads to easier scoring opportunities).

Drawing charges, like going for steals, is often a gamble. That's probaby why Deron is averaging 3.2 fouls per game to Paul's 2.6. Also you're wrong, offensive fouls do not help put the other team in the bonus because they do not count as team fouls. Look it up.

So how many more charges per game is Deron drawing than Paul? Because I'm pretty sure it's not enough to offset the extra possessions Paul gets you with his steals and fewer turnovers.

Also, one of the biggest advantages that Deron has is in the post. He gets at least one easy bucket a game from posting up his opponent, and when he plays a small guy like CP, Parker or Aaron Brooks, he goes to the well a lot, sometimes they just feed him the ball until the other team is forced to make a change. Its a pretty big deal, and is becoming even more so. As he ages, I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a Gary Payton level threat down there. He has an amazing body for it, and he's got a natural feel for back-to-the-basket play.

That's true, that's going to be an advantage Deron has over Paul going forward. But much in the way that Boozer is better than Nowitzki in certain things (i.e. rebounding), everybody knows who the more impactful player is. That's why Dirk has won an MVP while Boozer, like Deron, has never even been in the discussion.

[erudite23]

It would make sense to call me a homer if everything I have been saying is false. You can defend losing with superior shooting numbers all you want, but I'll keep the guy who leads his team to wins, always.

Ok then Rajon Rondo is the best PG in the NBA by your standard.

Apparently we're not allowed to consider the level of talent a player's team has had while evaluating their success, so Rondo has been the best PG in the NBA since 2008. He's won a ring and been to 2 Finals.

Why are we even debating Williams and Paul? It should be Rondo vs. everyone else.

Wrong. Derek Fisher ftw.

[erudite23]

I'd say its generally a far better indicator of defensive performance, since defense is all about moving your feet and getting into good position. Leaders in drawn charges much closer resemble a list of high quality defenders than that of steals or blocked shots. And a drawn charge has at least as much value as a steal because it turns the ball over, gets the opposing player in foul trouble and helps push the other team into the bonus (which leads to easier scoring opportunities).

Drawing charges, like going for steals, is often a gamble. That's probaby why Deron is averaging 3.2 fouls per game to Paul's 2.6. Also you're wrong, offensive fouls do not help put the other team in the bonus because they do not count as team fouls. Look it up.

So how many more charges per game is Deron drawing than Paul? Because I'm pretty sure it's not enough to offset the extra possessions Paul gets you with his steals and fewer turnovers.

Also, one of the biggest advantages that Deron has is in the post. He gets at least one easy bucket a game from posting up his opponent, and when he plays a small guy like CP, Parker or Aaron Brooks, he goes to the well a lot, sometimes they just feed him the ball until the other team is forced to make a change. Its a pretty big deal, and is becoming even more so. As he ages, I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a Gary Payton level threat down there. He has an amazing body for it, and he's got a natural feel for back-to-the-basket play.

That's true, that's going to be an advantage Deron has over Paul going forward. But much in the way that Boozer is better than Nowitzki in certain things (i.e. rebounding), everybody knows who the more impactful player is. That's why Dirk has won an MVP while Boozer, like Deron, has never even been in the discussion.

Did you just compare the difference between Dirk and Booz to the difference between Deron and CP? If so, you just hung yourself.


That's interesting about offensive fouls. I could have sworn that they counted towards the penalty. Still, though, the effect of giving the opposing player (most commonly the other teams star) is a significant deal.

....and lmfao@ saying that going for a charge is a gamble. All you can ever do is get in position. The best defensive teams in the league also lead the league in charges. Why? Because getting in position is the most basic part of defense. That's like saying that shooting a wide open shot that you normally make is a gamble because there's a chance you could miss. Its not a gamble, its the fundamentals of basketball. You get in position because that is what gives you the best chance to stop your opponent over the length of a game, not just to draw a charge. If you *really* think that way, then there's nothing more to say. You've been fairly reasonable to this point, but that statement just floors me. I can't see how anyone who knew anything about basketball would say that.

[SideshowBob]

Drawing charges, like going for steals, is often a gamble. That's probaby why Deron is averaging 3.2 fouls per game to Paul's 2.6. Also you're wrong, offensive fouls do not help put the other team in the bonus because they do not count as team fouls. Look it up.

So how many more charges per game is Deron drawing than Paul? Because I'm pretty sure it's not enough to offset the extra possessions Paul gets you with his steals and fewer turnovers.

FYI, according to http://www.hoopdata.com, Deron is drawing .32 charges per game, and Paul, .41

[dogrufus]

Did you just compare the difference between Dirk and Booz to the difference between Deron and CP? If so, you just hung yourself.

No I didn't.
Boozer peak PER: 24.1
Dirk peak PER: 28.1

Deron peak PER: 22.8
Paul peak PER: 30.0

Going by the stats the gap between Dirk and Booz is actually smaller than the difference between CP3 and Deron. But I'm sure you have some intangible argument as to why the stats are all lies, lies, lies, and this argument just happens to coincide with your strong pro-Williams bias as a Jazz homer.

....and lmfao@ saying that going for a charge is a gamble. All you can ever do is get in position. The best defensive teams in the league also lead the league in charges. Why? Because getting in position is the most basic part of defense. That's like saying that shooting a wide open shot that you normally make is a gamble because there's a chance you could miss. Its not a gamble, its the fundamentals of basketball. You get in position because that is what gives you the best chance to stop your opponent over the length of a game, not just to draw a charge. If you *really* think that way, then there's nothing more to say. You've been fairly reasonable to this point, but that statement just floors me. I can't see how anyone who knew anything about basketball would say that.

In the modern NBA most charge calls are a result of the defender flopping, so yes, going for a charge is a gamble. I'm sure you've seen very often that a defender will try to get in position and go for the overzealous flop only to earn a blocking foul, where if he tried to stay with his man instead of flopping he'd have played better defense. I've also seen plenty of occasions where a scrub will try a flop, get a no-call, and gives up an easy lay-in.

Just like going for steals, going for a charge is usually a risk unless the offensive player is just bowling you over in Eddy Curry-like fashion.

[dogrufus]

Drawing charges, like going for steals, is often a gamble. That's probaby why Deron is averaging 3.2 fouls per game to Paul's 2.6. Also you're wrong, offensive fouls do not help put the other team in the bonus because they do not count as team fouls. Look it up.

So how many more charges per game is Deron drawing than Paul? Because I'm pretty sure it's not enough to offset the extra possessions Paul gets you with his steals and fewer turnovers.

FYI, according to http://www.hoopdata.com, Deron is drawing .32 charges per game, and Paul, .41

No wonder erudite23 was so reluctant to give me hard numbers on this stat despite my asking multiple times. LOL homerz.

[erudite23]

I couldn't find it. Not suer if hoopdata is a reputable source or not, buuuut, Paul also bested Deron last year (in half a season of work), but Deron beat him the year before and the year before that he more than doubled him, according to their sources. I was going off of articles that Hollinger has posted at various times in the past, detailing that the only (according to him) advantage that Deron had over Paul was his superior ability to draw charges. I've looked several times for them, but 82games stopped tracking them after the 05-06 season, iirc. If that's legit...then thanks!

[Lionel Messi]

There seems to be an opinion that Jazz fans have sour grapes over taking Deron before Paul because of Paul's statistics, and that is why we argue that Deron is better than Paul to avoid embarrassment.
:

No, you don't argue for Deron to avoid embarassment. You do so because you are HOMERS. Biased, non-objective homers. That's what all these BS "winning" arguments come down to. If you happened to be a Hornets fan you'd be arguing how the stats show Paul is better and Deron is winning more because his teams have had more talent and better coaching.

If it was anything more than you all just being massive homers, then we'd see fans of teams other than the Jazz coming here in droves to argue that Deron is superior. But we haven't seen that. In fact, the majority of posters without an agenda (like myself, a Knick fan) have calmly pointed out that Paul is the better player. You are just a bunch of biased homers. That's why none of your anecdotal, completely unsupported opinions about why Williams is the Bill Russell of point guards aren't convincing anyone who isn't already convinced.

Exactly. I'm a Raptors fan.

I love both of them really, but to me it's always been really clear which one of them I'd rather have on my team.

[carrottop12]

It would make sense to call me a homer if everything I have been saying is false. You can defend losing with superior shooting numbers all you want, but I'll keep the guy who leads his team to wins, always.

Ok then Rajon Rondo is the best PG in the NBA by your standard.

Apparently we're not allowed to consider the level of talent a player's team has had while evaluating their success, so Rondo has been the best PG in the NBA since 2008. He's won a ring and been to 2 Finals.

Why are we even debating Williams and Paul? It should be Rondo vs. everyone else.

Absolutely not, and this is where statistics do start to have some importance. In the case of say Adam Morrison vs. John Stockton, Ammo has way more rings than Stockton ever did, but obviously he isn't the better player. All you have to do is see that Stockton dominates Ammo statistically and you can see that clearly.

When looking at Paul and Deron however, the stats aren't nearly as one sided. For the most part they are very similar with Paul having the slight edge. When the numbers are this close statistically i.e. with in 1-2 points and 1-2 assists of each other generally it isn't at all unreasonable to look at other factors like winning percentage, playoff success and head to head match ups.

If Paul had the edge in any of these categories it would far more clear that Paul is the better player. The problem is, Paul doesn't have the edge in any of those categories, and it's not like it's close, Deron dominates him in every single one of those categories.

At this point, you can start to look at statistics and wonder what the importance of a 1 point difference is in scoring for a season, or 1 assist more per game is in the big picture.

[dogrufus]

When looking at Paul and Deron however, the stats aren't nearly as one sided. For the most part they are very similar with Paul having the slight edge. When the numbers are this close statistically i.e. with in 1-2 points and 1-2 assists of each other generally it isn't at all unreasonable to look at other factors like winning percentage, playoff success and head to head match ups.

NO NO NO NO NO.

This whole "the difference between Paul and Deron just comes down to 1-2 points and 1-2 assists" is such an obnoxious lie. There are much more important things to look at when it comes to stats than the raw number of points. You have to look at how efficiently a guy gets those points. When Paul is consistently ahead of Deron in FG%, 3pt%, FT%, and TS%, that's more important than a small difference in the number of points. Likewise when you look at their assists, the difference is bigger than Paul just getting 1 or 2 more assists, because he also turns the ball over significantly less.

Then you adjust for pace and realize that even those point and assist totals you're so fond of aren't as close as they appear, because the Jazz have played a faster pace the last few years than Paul's teams.

If raw points and assists are the most meaningful stats then Stephon Marbury was as good as Deron, he was averaging 20/8 at this point in his career to Deron's 17/9.

Once you start looking at the stats in something more than the most simplistic and lazy way, Paul emerges as the clear victor. This is why virtually every advanced stat, whether it's PER, win shares, Ortg, Drtg, or whatever comes out strongly in Paul's favor. While NONE come out in Deron's favor.

[aggo]

I dont have access to synergy, so I think it's ridiculous for anyone who doesn't to discuss defensive metrics when comparing Paul and Deron.

But I've watched enough games between the two to say that I think Paul is the better defender. He stays on the ball more than Deron does and isn't nearly as afraid to get beat off the dribble as Deron is.

Offensively, I just have to scoff at anyone who really thinks that Paul can't run any and every offense in the league today better than Deron can. Deron is an elite dribbler who can break down defenses in half court. His dribble is his best weapon hence, why I said that if he played any Larry Brown team for a championship that might be the only scenario where I'd pick Deron over Paul.

Court vision? Paul made Tyson Chandler. People complained about Tyson on and on and on for years when he was with the Bulls. Once he got put next to Paul, gtfo...

I mean, i could keep going and going. If Paul had a chance to play with AK, Boozer, Millsap, Okur he'd make them better in those years than Deron did.

[carrottop12]

So w hen Paul plays with a player who puts up good stats, he made them?

When Deron does it, he is just lucky to play with these guys?

Mehmet Okur goes from 13/7 to 19/5 his first year when playing with Deron, and from a 27% 3P shooter to a 34%, then 38%, then 45% when playing with Deron?

Carlos Boozer goes from a 18/9 in his year prior to Deron, then in his next healthy season he goes to 21/12 with a 4% rise in shooting percentage.

Ronnie Brewer is a 14/4 guy next to Deron, then he leaves and he's a 5/3 guy who can barely get on the floor?

Lol at the idea that Deron is just lucky to play with these guys. What a joke.

[erudite23]

Lol, it just now occurred to me, but....if we're making excuses for systems (like people sometimes do with PGs from Utah), isn't it funny that Darren Collison went from averaging 18/9/3 on 49% FGs, 40% 3p and 85% FTs to....what, 14/4/3 on 45% FGs? I admit, his PT isn't as much as it was last year, but its hard to dispute that he hasn't been nearly the player for Indiana that he was for NO last season. Riiight?

[dogrufus]

Lol, it just now occurred to me, but....if we're making excuses for systems (like people sometimes do with PGs from Utah), isn't it funny that Darren Collison went from averaging 18/9/3 on 49% FGs, 40% 3p and 85% FTs to....what, 14/4/3 on 45% FGs? I admit, his PT isn't as much as it was last year, but its hard to dispute that he hasn't been nearly the player for Indiana that he was for NO last season. Riiight?

So you're shocked that he had an easier time as a bench player matching up primarily against other teams' reserves than as a full time starter?

[joe.linnen]

we already did, we came to it 2 years ago. They're both great players hands down.

[meat tray]

Lol, it just now occurred to me, but....if we're making excuses for systems (like people sometimes do with PGs from Utah), isn't it funny that Darren Collison went from averaging 18/9/3 on 49% FGs, 40% 3p and 85% FTs to....what, 14/4/3 on 45% FGs? I admit, his PT isn't as much as it was last year, but its hard to dispute that he hasn't been nearly the player for Indiana that he was for NO last season. Riiight?

So you're shocked that he had an easier time as a bench player matching up primarily against other teams' reserves than as a full time starter?

he started nearly half of their games last year...

[Torch23]

Anyone who doesn't admit that there are valid points on both sides is straightup stupid. As a completely neutral raptors fan, I'd take Paul. But not by much. I think erudite and dogrufus both made some very valid points and i'll just let those speak for themselves. My own two cents on a few things

-Deron's assists are lower because of the system. Face it, having bigmen who are excellent passers in a system that emphasizes cutting really hurts a point guard's assist totals. In the same way Jose Calderon's assists have been over inflated his entire career because both Bosh and Bargs are bad passers/excellent jump shooters and the Raptors have never executed a well run cut driven inside passing heavy offence, Deron Williams really suffers on total assist counts. Conversely, on the Hornets, whether its on alley oops or jumpshots from West, usually the Hornets pass recipients look to finish the play.

-By the same measure, Paul's playoff history has been hurt by his lack of quality teammates who make that second pass. If Paul had better passing teammates he would have more wins and less assists.

-Head to heads matter more than Hornets fans make them out to. But only in the playoffs. If you don't get to the playoffs, they are kind of irrelevant. However, this looks like the best Hornets team we have seen in years, so hopefully we can evaluate a head to head when it matters more.

Basically what it boils down to for me is that statistically, Paul is significantly better BUT the way some of the stats are structured work in his favor. Defense is tough to measure by any statistic, and in my opinion, its close to a wash(slight edge to Paul). Yes, 2 steals more is HUGE-but so is length contesting shots (and as several Jazz fans have pointed out, steals is a terrible stat because it doesn't measure how often a player is out of position to GET that stat). Offensively, similar wash, slight edge to Paul. I truly think D will would put up gaudier assist numbers on any team other than maybe the Lakers (who really pass the ball well at every position), but gotta give the edge where the numbers lie. Wins, head to heads, yes Deron has those, but he's also had a better franchise (coaches players GM stability in the city) you name it.

All in all, CP3 by a small margin. There's valid arguments either way, and anyone who says otherwise is delusional.

[Torch23]

As far as irritating fanbases go, gotta give it to Utah by a solid edge. Dwill_dashizzle's (Please Use More Appropriate Word) phrasing of the original post as presuming it was a closed book in favor of Williams was quickly matched NO-KG-AI's surprising-for-a-mod condescension. However, Bradford's impressive one liner resilient-to-any-sort-of-reasoning trolling easily swings it to Salt Lake City.

[erudite23]

Anyone who doesn't admit that there are valid points on both sides is straightup stupid. As a completely neutral raptors fan, I'd take Paul. But not by much. I think erudite and dogrufus both made some very valid points and i'll just let those speak for themselves. My own two cents on a few things

-Deron's assists are lower because of the system. Face it, having bigmen who are excellent passers in a system that emphasizes cutting really hurts a point guard's assist totals. In the same way Jose Calderon's assists have been over inflated his entire career because both Bosh and Bargs are bad passers/excellent jump shooters and the Raptors have never executed a well run cut driven inside passing heavy offence, Deron Williams really suffers on total assist counts. Conversely, on the Hornets, whether its on alley oops or jumpshots from West, usually the Hornets pass recipients look to finish the play.

-By the same measure, Paul's playoff history has been hurt by his lack of quality teammates who make that second pass. If Paul had better passing teammates he would have more wins and less assists.

-Head to heads matter more than Hornets fans make them out to. But only in the playoffs. If you don't get to the playoffs, they are kind of irrelevant. However, this looks like the best Hornets team we have seen in years, so hopefully we can evaluate a head to head when it matters more.

Basically what it boils down to for me is that statistically, Paul is significantly better BUT the way some of the stats are structured work in his favor. Defense is tough to measure by any statistic, and in my opinion, its close to a wash(slight edge to Paul). Yes, 2 steals more is HUGE-but so is length contesting shots (and as several Jazz fans have pointed out, steals is a terrible stat because it doesn't measure how often a player is out of position to GET that stat). Offensively, similar wash, slight edge to Paul. I truly think D will would put up gaudier assist numbers on any team other than maybe the Lakers (who really pass the ball well at every position), but gotta give the edge where the numbers lie. Wins, head to heads, yes Deron has those, but he's also had a better franchise (coaches players GM stability in the city) you name it.

All in all, CP3 by a small margin. There's valid arguments either way, and anyone who says otherwise is delusional.

Fantastic post. This really echoes my statement. I've said repeatedly that I believe Paul to have a small but distinct edge to this point in their careers. Right now, I think the gap has basically closed, though. Thanks for chiming in.