Official Trade Thread XIV: 6/14/10 - 12/22/10

[Wizardspride]

So its just rumors and BS right?

I certainly hope so.

[tontoz]

December 15th is when Atlanta can trade Joe Johnson. His sluggish start is most likely due to a minor hand and shoulder injury he suffered. However, come Dec. 15th, if Joe Johnson was on the table for Gilbert Arenas, do you accept?

No way Jose. Johnson already looks like he's in serious decline mode and I don't think he'd be as willing to take the back seat to Wall. That's one of the good things about Arenas this year. It's very apparent that Arenas defers to Wall, you can readily see it when they are on the court together. If you bring in JJ he'd have the opinion that he's coming in to change everything, to be the man, and now DC is his city to own. He'd be of the opinion that Wall will be a complementary player to him--when it needs to be the other way around.

Thats without mentioning JJ is owed roughly $50 million more than Arenas

JJ's contract sucks no doubt, but your assessment of him is dubious at best . He has been playing hurt all year which is the reason for his poor numbers (he is questionable for today's game) and is not the type who has a problem letting other guys get their shots. He played off the ball with the Suns with no problem and shot nearly 50% from 3 in his last season there.

The idea that JJ would try to claim DC as his own is silly. JJ is a very reserved personality. Frankly i don't think he would have problem being seen as the number 2 guy. My guess is that he would prefer the spotlight be on someone else. He has tried being the number 1 guy and he must realize that a team with him as the best player isn't going to be a legit title contender.

His contract is horrible though. JJ is my favorite player on the Hawks (hence the avy) but if it was up to me i might have let him walk rather than sign him to that deal.

Plus he is much older than Wall. If he were several years younger then it would make more sense.

[tontoz]

This thread has me thinking.... would you guys trade Hinrich for Jamal Crawford? Crawford is an expirer. I think Hinrich would actually be a reasonable fit on the Hawks.

[verbal8]

Gil for VC? Okay, I'd understand. Gil is an injury risk and not worth his contract. VC would offer us no help though. He'd either want a buyout to go to a contender or he'd quit on us. High lottery pick here we come.

Buying out Carter would be tricky because he has another year on his deal(with only $4 million guaranteed). This means that the buyout would be split between the two years and cut into next year's cap space.

[fishercob]

Gil for VC? Okay, I'd understand. Gil is an injury risk and not worth his contract. VC would offer us no help though. He'd either want a buyout to go to a contender or he'd quit on us. High lottery pick here we come.

Buying out Carter would be tricky because he has another year on his deal(with only $4 million guaranteed). This means that the buyout would be split between the two years and cut into next year's cap space.

If we could indeed ship Carter to a third team (Knicks for Curry, Chandler and Azubuike?) it could be more palpable. I just dont want to see Gil's run in DC end like this.

[Wizardspride]

This thread has me thinking.... would you guys trade Hinrich for Jamal Crawford? Crawford is an expirer. I think Hinrich would actually be a reasonable fit on the Hawks.

Deal.

[jimij]

This thread has me thinking.... would you guys trade Hinrich for Jamal Crawford? Crawford is an expirer. I think Hinrich would actually be a reasonable fit on the Hawks.

I think almost everyone on this board would do that. However, Flip would probably be charged with aggravated assault on Ernie Grunfeld if he traded away his pet.

Hinrich isn't a terrilbe player, but he should not be our point guard when we have Wall or Arenas on the court and Flip seems to have fallen head over heels in love with the guy. Don't know that we truly need Crawford since we already have Nick Young and Arenas, but we would like his expiring deal.

[Hoopalotta]

I don't believe the rumor myself, at least as far as serious discussions with Vince for Gil. I could see Orlando being interested in Gil for Shart.

There's a lot of rumors and reports, but here's one I'd put more stock in:

As one of the big-spending teams with payrolls of around $90 million, the Magic — along with the Lakers and the Mavs — will take a hit in the name of competitive balance. The NBA wants to follow the NFL blueprint in offering its small-market teams better chances to win.

The Magic tell me "there's no way" next season's books will show anything close to a $90-million payroll.

http://mobile.orlandosentinel.com/wap/n ... ando+Magic

If that's true, and it probably is given the circumstances with the CBA, it would almost unquestionably mean Shart is the only possibility if anything was going to happen. If the Magic swap Carter for Gil, they're at $98 million dollars next year and that's just not realistic. I just can't see their owners signing off on that kind of a gamble.

The only good thing that can be said for Shart is that his last year is guaranteed for $10 million with the rest of that money being contingent on performance clauses based on his play in 2012. I don't know how easy or difficult it is for him to get the whole thing guaranteed, but if the 'Zards are considering it - and we have no reason to believe that they are - that would have to be what they're banking on.

[dlts20]

I actually wouldnt trade Kirk for Crawford. We dont need another undersized ball handler. It would be even worst because he would shoot alot. I see Kirk as more of addition by subtraction. I just want to bench him or get rid of him. Not take on someone else unless its a position of need

[Hoopalotta]

Well, this is interesting:

The source added that Orlando is probably the most likely destination for Arenas if he is dealt. The Clippers have interest, the source said, but the Wizards don't want to take back Baron Davis in return.

I had wondered about this one since a good while back. We don't know if it's true, but if it is, it would establish parameters for what is not acceptable to the 'Zards in a Gil deal (though that might be quite incomplete information, so it shouldn't be taken at face value). It came up on the T&T board and the thing is you've almost gotta give Baron the Tinsley for how well he fits in with Wall.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizard ... de-ru.html

I would also point out for those saying that Ted "isn't going to trade Gil" that Mike Lee has now reported it about six times that we were the ones who called Orlando with the idea of the Gil for Vince deal. We made the offer. Some seem to have stricken this parsnip from their data banks.

Here it is again:

The Wizards contacted the Magic last summer about trading Arenas for Vince Carter's expiring contract, but the conversation didn't get very far.

[dlts20]

Ted again says Gil is our best player right now and isnt going anywher


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizard ... l#comments

[507Mack]

From the way he has played this season, I'm starting to think that Hinrich isn't even serviceable as a backup. He has been poison this year.

[WashWiz54]

If you'd like to read filthy ignorance, I suggest you wander over to the Orlando Magic board. Several "expert" Magic fans are posting how horrible Blatche is at everything including his horrendous passing. He's a black hole, a cancer, worst defender known to man, and without saying it seems to be the worst power-forward in the league. This is coming from a fan base that has Rashard Lewis as their starter.

Then their take on Arenas is just as comical. Same thing- cancer, can't play defense, will chuck every shot he sees, overrated, won't be able to come back from injury etc. etc. I almost decided to call them out for their stupidity but mods itch to pull the trigger on a suspension/ban it seems. Especially them Florida teams

As others have said, I'm sure talks went like this:

Otis: Hey Ernie, I'll give you Shard for Gil! What do you say!?
Ernie: Uhh... Didn't I decline this earlier this year? It's VC for Gil straight up or nothing.
Otis: Can't do that Ernie but I'll compromise; How about a deal based around Gil for Rashard and I'll give you Orton?
Ernie: No.
Otis: Fine, you drive a hard bargain Ernie but I'll give you VC for Gil!.. but small detail, throw in Blatche.
Ernie: *Click*

[507Mack]

Meanwhile, the Wizards will be an up and coming team featuring Wall, Young, 2011 (high) draft pick, 2012 draft pick, Booker, Blatche, Seraphin and McGee, plus maybe $25-30M in cap room.

I like having cap space, but when I look at the list of free agents, no one really jumps out. Roy Hibbert? Kevin Love? The prospect of getting those guys in 2012 doesn't really tickle me, and it's DEFINITELY not worth watching a heartless VC for the rest of the year. I'd rather watch us barely make/miss the playoffs while watching Gil all year than cross my fingers for the "hope" of those lame-o free agents coming over.

[507Mack]

If you'd like to read filthy ignorance, I suggest you wander over to the Orlando Magic board. Several "expert" Magic fans are posting how horrible Blatche is at everything including his horrendous passing. He's a black hole, a cancer, worst defender known to man, and without saying it seems to be the worst power-forward in the league. This is coming from a fan base that has Rashard Lewis as their starter.

Then their take on Arenas is just as comical. Same thing- cancer, can't play defense, will chuck every shot he sees, overrated, won't be able to come back from injury etc. etc. I almost decided to call them out for their stupidity but mods itch to pull the trigger on a suspension/ban it seems. Especially them Florida teams

As others have said, I'm sure talks went like this:

Otis: Hey Ernie, I'll give you Shard for Gil! What do you say!?
Ernie: Uhh... Didn't I decline this earlier this year? It's VC for Gil straight up or nothing.
Otis: Can't do that Ernie but I'll compromise; How about a deal based around Gil for Rashard and I'll give you Orton?
Ernie: No.
Otis: Fine, you drive a hard bargain Ernie but I'll give you VC for Gil!.. but small detail, throw in Blatche.
Ernie: *Click*

Their team is built around three point shooting and they don't want Gil? Just dumb. I have to imagine that they are willing to dump VC for someone that at least wants to play basketball. VC has been nothing but a sulking bag of farts for the past 5 years... almost like it's a chore to play hoops for a living.

[DallasShalDune]

+1 for Teddy.

[MF23]

Jesus, there is a difference in offering someone and having discussions.

I don't see the point in trading Arenas right now. Unless they recieve a bunch of draft picks for him there just isn't a point. His value is going to go up. He doesn't even have his explosiveness yet. They better wait.

[rockymac52]

Arenas for Carter would be an excellent deal. I say this almost completely out of financial reasons. Obviously Arenas' contract is huge and Carter expires this year. It's actually the best possible scenario financially.

I simply don't understand the guys who are saying we shouldn't do this deal from a basketball standpoint. Even if you think Arenas is still an allstar caliber player and Carter is washed up, does that really matter to the 2010-2011 Washington Wizards?

After tonight's loss, the Wizards are 5-12. That leaves us tied with the Rockets for the 5th worst record in the NBA, only 2.5 games ahead of the worst team in the league, and within 1 game of the 2nd worst. We're on pace to finish 24-58. Last season we finished 26-56 (although I'm not saying we're going in the wrong direction, we're obviously rebuilding).

Now, you might be quick to point out that we're only 2 games out of the playoffs, with the 8th seed currently belonging to the Cavaliers who have a 7-10 record. Theoretically, let's say we keep Arenas, and we start putting it together a little more, and by the end of the season we squeak into the playoffs as an 8 seed. What do we gain? I'm sorry but no matter how much we grow this season we're not going to challenge whoever the number 1 seed in the East ends up being. Orlando, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, take your pick, we're not beating any of these teams in a 7 game series. We're probably not even going to challenge them.

Yes, it'd be nice for such a young team to get some playoff experience, and it would be even nicer knowing that it was made possible by the team winning more as the season gets going, but I don't think the mental benefits from making the playoffs this year are that significant. Furthermore, making the playoffs as the 8 seed would leave us with the 15th pick in the draft. If we're lucky we could draft a guy who develops into a role player one day, but chances are that guy doesn't turn out to be that great. For perspective, here are the guys drafted 15th overall in the last 10 years: Larry Sanders, Austin Daye, Robin Lopez, Rodney Stuckey, Cedric Simmons, Antoine Wright, Al Jefferson, Reece Gaines, Bostjan Nachbar, and Steven Hunter. Jefferson and Stuckey are the only guys I'd want on my team, Lopez would make a servicable backup. The other seven can keep walking (although out of fairness, Sanders and Daye can still turn it around).

Even if you believe in the Wizards' young core, I don't think anyone honestly believes that they'll one day develop into a championship caliber squad. We need more pieces, and realistically, some of them need to be guys who are actually GOOD (someone who could make the allstar game). We can hope for a big free agent to choose to come to the Wizards, and we can hope for a good player to come to us via a fortunate trade, but both options are realistically unlikely. Our best chance at acquiring a good player is through the draft, more specifically through the lottery. If we make the playoffs now, that's not happening. I think it's in our best interest long term to not make the playoffs this year. I'm not saying we should tank, I'm just saying if we keep it up and get a top 5 pick, or even close to that, we'd be in good shape to keep the rebuilding process going in the right direction.

Anyways, I got off topic with what I initially wanted to say, which is that all things considered, Carter's performance this season hasn't been much worse than Arenas', and I'm not sure how much worse off we'd be in terms of wins and losses if we did the trade, and even if we were, more ping pong balls never hurt anybody.

Let's quickly compare Arenas and Carter's stats. These stats don't include tonight's game (which would only hurt Arenas more).

PER: Carter 16.03 Arenas 15.72
Minutes: Carter 28.2 Arenas 33.9
FG: Carter 5.1/10.6 = .483% Arenas 6.2/15.8 = .395%
3FG: Carter 1.4/3.4 = .417% Arenas 2.7/7.2 = .372%
FT: Carter 2.1/3.2 = .667% Arenas 2.9/3.5 = .826%
STL: Carter .9 Arenas 1.3
REB: Carter 3.2 Arenas 4
AST: Carter 2.4 Arenas 5.3
TO: Carter 1.6 Arenas 3.3
PF: Carter 2.6 Arenas 3.4
PTS: Carter 13.9 Arenas 18.1

Bottom Line: Arenas is shooting the ball much more than Carter, so he's scoring more than Carter, although not by much. Carter is shooting the ball less than he ever has in his career, but he's clearly being more selective, as his percentages are higher than they've ever been. Now, it's fair to say that Carter is shooting less because he's on a great team and he understands that every game counts and he's not their star, whereas Arenas is playing for a losing, rebuilding team that relies on him to shoot the ball and get the offense going. If they were traded, it's possible that Carter starts shooting more again and his percentages fall, and that Arenas starts shooting less and his percentages rise. However, even if that occurs, it probably equals out and nothing's changed. The Wizards would gain a true SG as opposed to an undersized one, although they'd lose Arenas' passing abilities. Ultimately I think the differences in their talent and production wouldn't be very large, and they wouldn't effect the Wizards' record very much. Just because Arenas might try harder and be a little bit better doesn't mean the Wizards should take on the extra 3 years of his contract. It would be foolish.

[dandridge 10]

Arenas for Carter would be an excellent deal. I say this almost completely out of financial reasons. Obviously Arenas' contract is huge and Carter expires this year. It's actually the best possible scenario financially.

I simply don't understand the guys who are saying we shouldn't do this deal from a basketball standpoint. Even if you think Arenas is still an allstar caliber player and Carter is washed up, does that really matter to the 2010-2011 Washington Wizards?

After tonight's loss, the Wizards are 5-12. That leaves us tied with the Rockets for the 5th worst record in the NBA, only 2.5 games ahead of the worst team in the league, and within 1 game of the 2nd worst. We're on pace to finish 24-58. Last season we finished 26-56 (although I'm not saying we're going in the wrong direction, we're obviously rebuilding).

Now, you might be quick to point out that we're only 2 games out of the playoffs, with the 8th seed currently belonging to the Cavaliers who have a 7-10 record. Theoretically, let's say we keep Arenas, and we start putting it together a little more, and by the end of the season we squeak into the playoffs as an 8 seed. What do we gain? I'm sorry but no matter how much we grow this season we're not going to challenge whoever the number 1 seed in the East ends up being. Orlando, Boston, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, take your pick, we're not beating any of these teams in a 7 game series. We're probably not even going to challenge them.

Yes, it'd be nice for such a young team to get some playoff experience, and it would be even nicer knowing that it was made possible by the team winning more as the season gets going, but I don't think the mental benefits from making the playoffs this year are that significant. Furthermore, making the playoffs as the 8 seed would leave us with the 15th pick in the draft. If we're lucky we could draft a guy who develops into a role player one day, but chances are that guy doesn't turn out to be that great. For perspective, here are the guys drafted 15th overall in the last 10 years: Larry Sanders, Austin Daye, Robin Lopez, Rodney Stuckey, Cedric Simmons, Antoine Wright, Al Jefferson, Reece Gaines, Bostjan Nachbar, and Steven Hunter. Jefferson and Stuckey are the only guys I'd want on my team, Lopez would make a servicable backup. The other seven can keep walking (although out of fairness, Sanders and Daye can still turn it around).

Even if you believe in the Wizards' young core, I don't think anyone honestly believes that they'll one day develop into a championship caliber squad. We need more pieces, and realistically, some of them need to be guys who are actually GOOD (someone who could make the allstar game). We can hope for a big free agent to choose to come to the Wizards, and we can hope for a good player to come to us via a fortunate trade, but both options are realistically unlikely. Our best chance at acquiring a good player is through the draft, more specifically through the lottery. If we make the playoffs now, that's not happening. I think it's in our best interest long term to not make the playoffs this year. I'm not saying we should tank, I'm just saying if we keep it up and get a top 5 pick, or even close to that, we'd be in good shape to keep the rebuilding process going in the right direction.

Very well said. I think most people on this board recognize that at VC for Arenas would be a smart move. However, many people, like me, have an emotional attachment to Arenas, and for that reason would be sad to see him go. So, while we would agree with the move, I don't think we will be happy with it...at least until down the road when we see the fruits of the deal.

Anyways, I got off topic with what I initially wanted to say, which is that all things considered, Carter's performance this season hasn't been much worse than Arenas', and I'm not sure how much worse off we'd be in terms of wins and losses if we did the trade, and even if we were, more ping pong balls never hurt anybody.

Let's quickly compare Arenas and Carter's stats. These stats don't include tonight's game (which would only hurt Arenas more).

PER: Carter 16.03 Arenas 15.72
Minutes: Carter 28.2 Arenas 33.9
FG: Carter 5.1/10.6 = .483% Arenas 6.2/15.8 = .395%
3FG: Carter 1.4/3.4 = .417% Arenas 2.7/7.2 = .372%
FT: Carter 2.1/3.2 = .667% Arenas 2.9/3.5 = .826%
STL: Carter .9 Arenas 1.3
REB: Carter 3.2 Arenas 4
AST: Carter 2.4 Arenas 5.3
TO: Carter 1.6 Arenas 3.3
PF: Carter 2.6 Arenas 3.4
PTS: Carter 13.9 Arenas 18.1

Bottom Line: Arenas is shooting the ball much more than Carter, so he's scoring more than Carter, although not by much. Carter is shooting the ball less than he ever has in his career, but he's clearly being more selective, as his percentages are higher than they've ever been. Now, it's fair to say that Carter is shooting less because he's on a great team and he understands that every game counts and he's not their star, whereas Arenas is playing for a losing, rebuilding team that relies on him to shoot the ball and get the offense going. If they were traded, it's possible that Carter starts shooting more again and his percentages fall, and that Arenas starts shooting less and his percentages rise. However, even if that occurs, it probably equals out and nothing's changed. The Wizards would gain a true SG as opposed to an undersized one, although they'd lose Arenas' passing abilities. Ultimately I think the differences in their talent and production wouldn't be very large, and they wouldn't effect the Wizards' record very much. Just because Arenas might try harder and be a little bit better doesn't mean the Wizards should take on the extra 3 years of his contract. It would be foolish.

[Hoopalotta]

There you go with all your fancy-dancy reason and analysis.

The counter argument: Gil is awesome and with him, the Wizards might be awesome and that would be totally awesome, especially after I've had a few beers.

I dare you to try and pick a hole in that one. Admittedly, it's more compelling when put into caps lock.

Seriously though, it doesn't sound legit to me that we're dealing with the realistic possibility of Gil for Carter as the centerpiece of a deal deal unless Jameer Nelson suffers a season ending injury or something similar. The actual choices are probably a lot more punitive than that financially, but I'd still get something done for all the reasons mentioned above in addition to the risk of injury.

It's time to move on and accept that we're still years away.