Can we shut the book on the Williams/Paul debate?

[erudite23]

As far as irritating fanbases go, gotta give it to Utah by a solid edge. Dwill_dashizzle's (Please Use More Appropriate Word) phrasing of the original post as presuming it was a closed book in favor of Williams was quickly matched NO-KG-AI's surprising-for-a-mod condescension. However, Bradford's impressive one liner resilient-to-any-sort-of-reasoning trolling easily swings it to Salt Lake City.

Just when you thought you had seen it all, Bradford took it to a whole different level:

[Bradford]

As far as irritating fanbases go, gotta give it to Utah by a solid edge. Dwill_dashizzle's (Please Use More Appropriate Word) phrasing of the original post as presuming it was a closed book in favor of Williams was quickly matched NO-KG-AI's surprising-for-a-mod condescension. However, Bradford's impressive one liner resilient-to-any-sort-of-reasoning trolling easily swings it to Salt Lake City.

Oh I'm really upset now. I put a lot of stock into what random strangers on the internet think about me. I'd stay but now I'm going to go cry myself to sleep.....lol

Oh, and incase you forgot, 8 > 3.

[NO-KG-AI]

As far as irritating fanbases go, gotta give it to Utah by a solid edge. Dwill_dashizzle's (Please Use More Appropriate Word) phrasing of the original post as presuming it was a closed book in favor of Williams was quickly matched NO-KG-AI's surprising-for-a-mod condescension. However, Bradford's impressive one liner resilient-to-any-sort-of-reasoning trolling easily swings it to Salt Lake City.

Since you are part of the "system hurts his assist totals" crowd, maybe you can explain why Paul turns the ball over so much less as well? I've never seen a system that can jack up volume and also help efficiency on assists. If Deron played in a system where he was forced to control the ball even more than he already does, wouldn't you expect his turnovers to go up with his other numbers? He's already top 5.

[erudite23]

I explained this. First of all, CP has better ball mastery than Deron does, so lets not get confused there. However, Deron's offense results in much higher percentage looks, producing significantly more shots at and around the hoop. These shots are, naturally, more difficult to come by and result in a higher TO rate as a tradeoff. When its a TO, its recorded as a stat, but when Deron's passes result in higher FG% for his teammates...well, there is no stat for that. Well, except team offensive rating....at which Deron's team routinely wipe the floor with CP's team.

[erudite23]

Oh, and btw...Deron just went for 24 and 16 on 10/15 shooting with a three and two steals...and zero TOs against the 3rd best defensive team in the league tonight. While Paul went for 9 and 14 (4 stls) against Charlotte. Deron is getting stronger as the season moves forward and it seems like Paul is trending downward.

[TMACFORMVP]

So you're shocked that he had an easier time as a bench player matching up primarily against other teams' reserves than as a full time starter?

As a starter last season, Collison averaged 19/3/9 on over 48% from the floor, 41% from three, and 85% from the line. It was nearly a half year sample size (37 games). Look, I'm not saying that Deron is necessarily better, but to allude to the system being a primary deterrent for Deron isn't a strong argument IMO. The much greater advantage Paul has is in the total efficiency of his play right now, he's not making any mistakes, shooting at an abnormally high percentage, and leading his team to wins - with not as much around him as Deron. For this season in particular though, I've been more impressed with what Deron's done in the fourth quarter, and feel his volume is starting to get a point - that it's greater than Paul's to an extent where the efficiency is a bit negated. In terms of who has played better so far, I'd lean towards Deron, but it's certainly not a "shut the book," case.

I'd expect Paul however to start scoring more when the situation arises, and as we've seen, he can output the same sort of volume Deron has this season, while still maintaining that unreal efficiency in terms of % and TO's.

[NO-KG-AI]

Collison also averaged a **** load of turnovers, and our teams offensive and defensive efficiency fell off the cliff. Much like what would happen with Deron in place of Paul.

[dogrufus]

-Deron's assists are lower because of the system. Face it, having bigmen who are excellent passers in a system that emphasizes cutting really hurts a point guard's assist totals. In the same way Jose Calderon's assists have been over inflated his entire career because both Bosh and Bargs are bad passers/excellent jump shooters and the Raptors have never executed a well run cut driven inside passing heavy offence, Deron Williams really suffers on total assist counts. Conversely, on the Hornets, whether its on alley oops or jumpshots from West, usually the Hornets pass recipients look to finish the play.

Deron's assists are also higher because his teams have played at a faster pace. This is probably more of a factor than the system. Also, if the system lowers Deron's assists unnaturally, why does he turn it over so much more often? Shouldn't it lower his turnovers too if he's doing less of the passing?

[dogrufus]

I explained this. First of all, CP has better ball mastery than Deron does, so lets not get confused there. However, Deron's offense results in much higher percentage looks, producing significantly more shots at and around the hoop. These shots are, naturally, more difficult to come by and result in a higher TO rate as a tradeoff. When its a TO, its recorded as a stat, but when Deron's passes result in higher FG% for his teammates...well, there is no stat for that. Well, except team offensive rating....at which Deron's team routinely wipe the floor with CP's team.

This is far more easily explained by the fact that the guys Deron is passing to, such as Millsap and Jefferson, are much more inside players than the guys Paul passes too, such as David West, jumpshooting PF extraordinaire. Paul hasn't played with a legit post player. Deron has always had at least two.

[dogrufus]

Oh, and btw...Deron just went for 24 and 16 on 10/15 shooting with a three and two steals...and zero TOs against the 3rd best defensive team in the league tonight. While Paul went for 9 and 14 (4 stls) against Charlotte. Deron is getting stronger as the season moves forward and it seems like Paul is trending downward.

That was probably Deron's best all around game this season so I'll give him credit, but I don't think you can knock Paul for 9 points on 4-7 FG, 14 assists, 5 rebs, and 4 steals in a blowout win. Both PGs dominated their games, CP3 just did it in his without scoring.

Don't get me wrong, Deron is playing great and he's slowly narrowing the gap, but there is still a gap.

Seems like the Pacers, though a good defensive team, have a lot of trouble defending the better PGs.

[Bradford]

Don't get me wrong, Deron is playing great and he's slowly narrowing the gap, but there is still a gap.

Troll.

[NO-KG-AI]

Deron's team's offensive rating is higher, but his isn't, notice a trend? You really don't want to use offensive rating as a barometer, because Paul demolishes Deron. The only difference in team offensive comes when they both sit, and the Jazz continue to roll, and the Hornets fall off a cliff.

[Bradford]

Deron's team's offensive rating is higher, but his isn't, notice a trend? You really don't want to use offensive rating as a barometer, because Paul demolishes Deron. The only difference in team offensive comes when they both sit, and the Jazz continue to roll, and the Hornets fall off a cliff.

Says the guy who thinks Deron isn't even the best player on the Jazz? Yeah real credible stuff.

[NO-KG-AI]

Someone doesn't understand how offensive rating works, lol.

[Bradford]

Deron Williams needs to become clearly the best player on his team before he can start talking to real superstars.

This is all you need to know about this guy. No credibility.

[erudite23]

Someone doesn't understand how offensive rating works, lol.

Yes. You.

You're telling me that in the 8-10 minutes that the backups play, then the difference in offensive rating between Deron and Paul is entirely made up by his (Deron's) backups!?!? No, the difference is made up by the calculation. ORTG for individual players is obscenely and irretrievably flawed. ORTG for teams, though, is a simple and impossible-to-mess-up formula. Trying to separate out who is responsible for what is the part where the formula falls apart. Deron runs a superior (often far so) offense to Paul. Of course, in the world of CP worship, this is just because of Deron's teammates. However, when the opposite is true for Paul, the defensive superiority is because of Paul. Talk about rose-colored glasses.

[NO-KG-AI]

Haha, I was gonna post something witty about BRadford, but someone else got to him first.

OFfensive rating is a simple rating(the one I'm using anyway). You can't fake it over 35 minutes, for two guys that control the ball. The people that have individual ratings that are inflated are finishers and low minute players that get their offense from other players, it's not lying about two PGs that play similar roles. Paul gets a good amount more out of his possessions, and creates a lot more possessions, it's really not hard to understand at all =/

[Wavy Q]

aw he got waived, he was one of my favorite trolls, always so steadfast.

[NO-KG-AI]

Just some more fun stats from 82games, I want to watch the song and dance used to explain these all away. Raw numbers are per48

The Hornets score 111.4 points per 100 possessions when Paul is on the floor, and 97.6 when he isn't. The Jazz are at 111.1 with Deron, and drop to 105.5 when he exits. There is the difference in your team offensive rating Erudite, yes, those 10-15 minutes they don't play is the difference between being 6th in the league, and being 8th. Huge advantage to Paul.

The Hornets shoot EFG% 51.8% with Paul in the game, and 47.1% without him. 4.7% drop. The Jazz shoot 50% EFG% with Deron out there, and 49.3% with him on the bench. .7% drop. Huge advantage to Paul again.

The Hornets log assists on 60% of their baskets with Paul, and 54% without him. 6% drop. The Jazz assist on 64% of their shots with Deron in, and 67% without him. 4% INCREASE. The Jazz actually create BETTER, with the ball out of Deron's hands?

The Hornets grab 49.5% of total rebounds available with Paul in the game, and 48.4% without him. 1.1% decrease. The Jazz grab 45.7% of boards with Deron in, and 52% when he's on the bench. 6.3% difference, huge advantage to Paul again.

The Hornets attempt 27 FTs with Paul in the game, and 18 without him. 9 FT difference. The Jazz shoot 26 FTs with Deron in, and 24 with him out. 2 FT difference. Big advantage to Paul.

The Hornets turn the ball over 12 times per 48 with Paul in, and 16 times without him. 4 turnover difference. The Jazz turn the ball over 12 times with Deron in as well, and 4 times without him. 2 turnovers different, advantage Paul, not as huge as I would have expected though.

The Hornets cause 16 turnovers with Paul in, and 10 without him. 6 turnovers different. The Jazz cause 14 turnovers with Deron, and 16 without him. 2 possession advantage to the bench.

All in all, the Hornets get 10 more possessions per game with Paul in, per 48 minutes, than they do with the bench, and the Jazz break even. Do you realize how much better Deron would have to shoot from the floor to make up for the Hornets getting 10 more possessions to work with(some of them being off turnovers that may well lead to easy buckets)?

The Hornets commit 20 fouls with Paul out there, and 26 without him. 6 difference. The Jazz commit 22 fouls with Deron, and 28 without him. 6 different, PUSH(was starting to get ugly).

The Hornets draw 23 fouls with Paul in, and 16 with him out. 7 point swing. The Jazz draw 23 fouls as well, but draw 24 with Deron on the bench. -1 for him.

So all in all, the Hornets are +13 in foul differential with Paul on the floor, and hte Jazz are +5 with Deron. Nice number for both, glaring advantage to Paul.



Lets forget about raw numbers, on/off, offensive rating, whatever for a moment and just focus on a few things. The Hornets are equal or better in all of these things, and when Paul is on the floor, the Hornets hold significant advantages and drop off hugely without him.

That can be fine, the argument would be that the Jazz are just a good team, and can continue to play high level ball with Deron Williams, which isn't a bad thing.

What is confusing though, is that if a team is so good that it can fill the void of a dominant MVP candidate when he's on the bench, this team should be winning 60-65 games EASILY and be a dominant contender. The Jazz aren't, so the only real conclusion that can be drawn from that is that Deron is a good player, but not dominant, the Jazz just don't drop off significantly like a team would when losing an MVP. The only types of teams that can play that well without their dominant player are teams that would win mid 60's WITH the dominant player.

That's the hang up with Deron for me, it's clear that teams like New Orleans, Utah, Phoenix, etc, weren't dominant level teams, but of all these teams, only Utah doesn't see significant drops when the bench comes in, so it stands to reason that their win total should stand out significantly from the other two, if the star players are close to the same level, and only one of these teams can play so well without their star, tehy should have more wins, right?

[BarneyGumble]

Deron's team's offensive rating is higher, but his isn't, notice a trend? You really don't want to use offensive rating as a barometer, because Paul demolishes Deron. The only difference in team offensive comes when they both sit, and the Jazz continue to roll, and the Hornets fall off a cliff.

Yeah, that certainly makes the case for Paul doesn't it? He's so great at leading his team...that they are complete dogsh*t when he is not in the game. Say, that means Michael Jordan of 1987 was better than Michael Jordan of 1997, right? Because his teammates played worse before he learned how to lead them, right?

Your arguments are getting pathetic and old and your logic is as flimsy as Bob Dole waiting on a refill...