Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[Wizardspride]

Looks like we might have a shot at Harrison Barnes

Its early but I'm not impressed by him.

[REDardWIZskin]

has perry jones played yet?

I saw Sullinger play the other night...I was not impressed. He can barely get up the floor in transition and can barely get off the floor when attempting field goals. I saw him get his shot blocked twice in about a 6 minute span and he wasn't even playing NBA prospect bigs for Florida State. I hope that he's just out of shape.

[Halcyon]

I think Chris Singleton, who is probably the best defender in the ACC, was on Sullinger. They also double teamed the guy for most of the night, from what I can remember. With that said Sullinger seems pretty floor-bound, but he does seem to be pretty strong and has pretty good post moves for a freshman. He's not a franchise changer but he would be a solid player to add to our team, from the one game I saw him play.

[fishercob]

I saw Sullinger play the other night...I was not impressed. He can barely get up the floor in transition and can barely get off the floor when attempting field goals. I saw him get his shot blocked twice in about a 6 minute span and he wasn't even playing NBA prospect bigs for Florida State. I hope that he's just out of shape.

This guy must be a close relative of Dray's.

[closg00]

I think Chris Singleton, who is probably the best defender in the ACC, was on Sullinger. They also double teamed the guy for most of the night, from what I can remember. With that said Sullinger seems pretty floor-bound, but he does seem to be pretty strong and has pretty good post moves for a freshman. He's not a franchise changer but he would be a solid player to add to our team, from the one game I saw him play.

We are starved for banging-bigs, Sullinger might fit the bill while we wait on Kevin.

[Ed Wood]

I would like to reiterate that Tyler Honeycutt is pretty cool and that I would approve of his being drafted by the Wizards.

[closg00]

I would like to reiterate that Tyler Honeycutt is pretty cool and that I would approve of his being drafted by the Wizards.

You might be on to something, Honeycutt was a killa last night, check out his stats.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=303362305

Profile:
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/tyler-honeycutt

Never seen him play, but DX has him at #18 currently.

[Ruzious]

I would like to reiterate that Tyler Honeycutt is pretty cool and that I would approve of his being drafted by the Wizards.

You might be on to something, Honeycutt was a killa last night, check out his stats.
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=303362305

Profile:
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/tyler-honeycutt

Never seen him play, but DX has him at #18 currently.

What's up with his 2.8/4.5 assist/to ratio? That's epically bad.

[REDardWIZskin]

I think Chris Singleton, who is probably the best defender in the ACC, was on Sullinger. They also double teamed the guy for most of the night, from what I can remember. With that said Sullinger seems pretty floor-bound, but he does seem to be pretty strong and has pretty good post moves for a freshman. He's not a franchise changer but he would be a solid player to add to our team, from the one game I saw him play.

In the NBA guys will be taller and in most cases as good as a defender as Singelton is defensively.
we shall see how the rest of the season goes, but i don't think the nba has a place for non athletic bigs anymore unless he's taller (which he's not) or can stretch the floor with the 15 ft shot which i have yet to see. but its still early. I hope he's just getting into shape

To answer my own question I saw perry Jones play last night and he will not make it past the top 3 picks based on what I saw. Baylor's going to the final four this year

[Ed Wood]

What's up with his 2.8/4.5 assist/to ratio? That's epically bad.

Basically it's evidence of how much offensive responsibility Honeycutt has had to assume for UCLA so far this year and evidence for me of the fact that Ben Howland's offense is ass. Right now both nominal point guard Lazeric Jones and big guy who pretends he's a point guard Reeves Nelson are also turning it over a lot, if not as much as Honeycutt. Honeycutt has to force things a lot at the moment because UCLA won't get a decent shot by running its offense.

Honeycutt is really athletic and at times a very good defender, and those things were evident even last year but he was supposed to have much more of a guard skillset coming out of high school than was evident last year. This year he's being much more assertive offensively at times and generally was looking much better offensively even before really blowing up against Kansas. Basically he appeals to me for three reasons:

1. There's a chance he might be available for a later first round pick, which would mean the Wizards might be able to swing a deal to add him in addition to picking someone earlier in the first.

2. He projects as a defender and a shooter from the wing, those are the two qualities most important to the Wizards in a wing player.

3. Everybody with perimeter skills coming out of UCLA gets a small boost in their draft stock from me because I suspect Ben Howland's offense is either intentionally or accidentally designed to make guards look bad. Russell Westbrook was mediocre in college and Darren Collison looked like he might be a decent backup in the NBA and it seems like half of this athletic recruits over the past three years have transfered out of the program, so now everybody with a jump shot from UCLA gets a little boost from me.

[Ruzious]

Ralph Sampson is killing it so far this year and I don't know if he'll actually look better in a less deliberate offense and we just drafted an undersized power forward but if we hadn't, or if we wanted another Arizona's Derrick Williams is an absurdly efficient scorer, but not the prodigal rebounder that a lot of undersized success stories in the NBA have been.

Absurdly efficient is right about Derrick Williams. The guy has an unheard of PER of 53.5, so far this season. DuJuan Blair didn't even touch that. How well do you think he translates to the NBA?

[no D in Hibachi]

First chance to see Barnes and Jones. Neither impressed, but Barnes looked better. Jones is definately a tweener, but not an elite athlete so the Josh Smith comps can fly out the window. He reminded me of a weaker shooting version of Al Harrington. Barnes is Marvin Williams clone #2. He looks like he could/should be the best athlete/player on the floor, but he's not polished, not very athletic, not very quick.

My overall question relates to the scouts and voters who named Barnes a pre-season all-American. What did they see that I'm missing? Did the voters just assume that since the no. 1 rated in-coming freshmen has had incredible seasons the last few years that Barnes would do the same?

Either way, the prized jewel of the upcoming draft appears to be Perry Jones. He's looking like a tremendous athlete.

[willbcocks]

Jones is definately a tweener, but not an elite athlete so the Josh Smith comps can fly out the window. He reminded me of a weaker shooting version of Al Harrington....Either way, the prized jewel of the upcoming draft appears to be Perry Jones. He's looking like a tremendous athlete.

I'm struggling here, can you clarify your thoughts on Mr. Jones?

[Hoopalotta]

There's two Jones's, Terrence and Perry. The more negative comments above are about Terror Jones who plays for Kentucky and went against North Carolina yesterday.

I saw some of that game and am reminded of why I greatly prefer NBA ball. The college venues are nice, but the play can just be so ragged and mechanical.

Jones of Kentucky (that's Terrence) wasn't having a particularly good game, but I think if we're going to question his athleticism, we should do so with qualifiers. I have definitely seen him make some elite athletic plays, especially with quick leaping, and that, combined with his strength, can be decisive. But I don't think he's going to out-quick small forwards, so a lot of how his stuff translates to the NBA is up in the air.

I didn't see much, but Barnes really looked bad for a guy being talked about up at the top of the lottery. He seems to have a stiff back, reminding me slightly of Devin EBanks in his posture and such, and I don't see that it's possible for him as any kind of a go-to shot creator. I would not have been able to pick him out of the crowd if I wasn't looking for him.

[RickRoll_inDC]

On Harrison Barnes:
I told you so.

I don't think that Perry Jones would be a good fit because he seems to be a lot like Blatche, but the other Jones- Terrence- I really like.

Yeah, with a top 3 pick you allegedly aren't supposed to draft for need, but just talent, but Perry Jones is just too raw. He's completely potential.

Here's my guy: playerId=46197Jordan Hamilton

IMO, Wall, Arenas, Blatche, and McGee are pretty much set in stone for quite a while. The only question is the 3.

[princeofpalace]

Jones of Kentucky (that's Terrence) wasn't having a particularly good game, but I think if we're going to question his athleticism, we should do so with qualifiers. I have definitely seen him make some elite athletic plays, especially with quick leaping, and that, combined with his strength, can be decisive. But I don't think he's going to out-quick small forwards, so a lot of how his stuff translates to the NBA is up in the air. .

The UNC game was by far Jones worst game of the season. He was completely taken out of the game by Henson/Zeller. Those guys have tremendous length and they really bothered Jones all game. Jotnes was moonlighting at C out there at times too and I think he did a good job of denying Zeller the ball in the post & bodying him up but on the opposite end of the court he couldn't get anything done in the post against those two. I was disappointed to see that Jones/Calipari didn't adjust the game plan to allow Jones to play face up more and bring those guys further away from the basket.

As far as Jones athleticism, I agree that I have seen him at times look elite and I also don't think he will suffer against NBA SF. I do think he is more of a PF though.

Barnes had some moments where he looked really good but he took a backseat to Henson & Zeller. And the UNC guards don't do a good job getting him the ball. But on the flipside, I think Barnes lacks a killer insticnt, he doesn't seem to want to carry the team on his back or maybe he's just not allowed to. IDK. But I think he needs to assert himself more if he is to be a #1 pick.

[Ruzious]

I'm now convinced that Terrence Jones is a 3 in the NBA - in the Melo mold. He's extremely comfortable on the perimeter, and he doesn't have the size, length, and leaping ability to excell as an NBA 4. He'll be an excellent 3man just a bit below Melo. He may not be a super-athletic 3, but his first step and BBIQ makes up for it.

This draft class is getting bashed, and there's no great top pick, but the top 10 picks all have big value. I think there are 6 elite players:
1. Perry Jones - not a young KG but still a legit great talent.
2. Jonas Valanciunas - people are sleeping on him, but he's a remarkably efficient 18 year old Lithuanian. At 6'10 and 230, there's a chance he grows ala Tim Duncan.
3. Harrison Barnes - once he relaxes and starts hitting his jumper, the skies the limit.
4. Kyrie Irving - just an outstanding point guard - seems like he excells in every phase of the game.
5. Kemba Walker- Was always super-quick at both ends, and now he's the best scorer in the country.
6. Terrence Jones

And then there are 3 players that could bump a couple of those guys out of the top 6:
1. Enes Kanter - mark him down for 20 and 10 every game. But I could see him having a turnovers problem.
2. Kenneth Faried - It's not just his amazing rebounding; look at his steals and blocks. This guy gets you so many extra possessions. Team him with a stretch 4.
3. Derrick Williams - A PER over 50; are you serious? Yeah, there's a tweener issue and he's much more an offensive rebounder than a defensive rebounder, but he's athletic and ridiculously efficient.

And there are 2 other players that likely go top 10 that I think are overrated - but give other picks more value by pushing players down:
1. Jared Sullinger - Yeah, he's a wide-body who can score and rebound, but he's a short PF that doesn't make up for it with length or athleticism - and likely will have weight issues.
2. Jan Vesely - yeah, he's a 6'11ish athlete who can make a highlight real of dunks and other athletic moves, but I don't see him being a skilled 38 minute a game player.

[Ed Wood]

I agree with most of that Ruz, P. Jones is talented enough in a draft otherwise without a clear cut guy everybody can convince themselves is a generational talent that he'll probably end up first overall by default, a la Blake Griffen but with a less impressive college resume but perhaps a little more room for dreaming.

Johnny V. is a really solid prospect who has the appealing combination of definite room to improve but a fair amount of certainty based on his physical ability, current production and willingness to exert himself defensively. I'm not sure I see a Tim Duncan waiting to emerge but considering that Joakim Noah is probably a top five center at this point and he provides mostly defense, rebounding and mobility I think Valanciunas could be pretty good.

Barnes is probably unduly held responsible for the dysfunction of the Tarheels as a whole. He hasn't been so awful to this point, beyond shooting pretty poorly. Granted, as a player for whom scoring punch is a significant portion of his potential value but I'm not going to judge anybody on a team run by Larry Drew too harshly. I actually like Tyler Zeller and even John Henson (who has really been rebounding and having a defensive impact) and I think everybody on that team looks worse than they should because of the poor guard play in a very guard-oriented NCAA, UCLA has the same problem.

Irving I like a lot and Walker should be a solid NBA player but neither really makes sense for the Wizards. Irving is a good enough shooter to benefit from playing next to Wall but the returns on having two point guards that talented would almost have to be diminishing and the Wizards have too many other areas that could really use a high pick to shore them up.

Jones is certainly talented but I have no idea yet whether he's gonna be a small or a power forward and I really want to before supporting drafting him (basically I want to be sure he would reliably defend one position or the other, which is a bigger issue to me than where he might fit in offensively.)

Faried and Williams are probably prospects with too many "warts" to use the condescending Moneyball term, to end up in the top ten but both have talents that are gonna play and when you get outside the top of the draft that's what you want, I'm curious to see how teams respond to Kanter's lack of college burn.

On Vesely, I am concerned by his fairly tepid play thus far for Partizan this year, but I don't really agree with the dunk-centric assessment. Highlight reels or going to focus on his dunks because you don't get many as nice as his in Europe (or anywhere) and because they're highlights but he's also a guy with perimeter shooting ability and serious defensive potential.

Basically I agree that I wouldn't want to go as high as some of the mocks have him (top five) because he's not playing like he should be a top five pick but between the size, coordination, mobility, shooting ability and defense he brings so many things to the table that the Wizards need that I'd still want to have him.

An optimistic outlook would be Rashard Lewis with more defensive ability and that's pretty much exactly what I want out of a power forward on this team. I suspect he may take some time to get it together, however, so I'd group him with Seraphin as a guy with real talent who I want a part of but maybe as a supplement to another pick who could have a more definite an immediate impact. Guys like Vesely are why I think it's worth it to really spend to pick up extra first round picks.

A quick couple of follow-ups: One thing that does really concern me about Ves is how terrible he's been from the line this year. I subscribe to the notion that strong shooting from the line is a positive indicator of future improvement in general jump shooting and even in a pretty small sample size I'd like to see the guy shoot better than an office intern trying to win everybody a fillet-o-fish at halftime.

Also, back quickly to John Henson: I agree with the sentiment that he's a power forward through and through, and that he doesn't have a whole lotta power at the moment, but the kid is rebounding at a rate of 15.3 per 40 pace adjusted with almost five blocks this year, vs. 17.2 and 3.0 for Faried; that's a rate better than that of rebounding specialists like Syracuse's Rick Jackson, Butler's Matt Howard and Jordan Williams, and good for second in DX's database thus far this year in pace adjusted rebounds per 40 and fifth in pace adjusted blocks (wow is Wake's Ty Walker having a Theo Ratliff year so far, 7.6 blocks per 40, after 7.0 last year, maybe he'll make it as a specialist). So I'm not totally soured on him just yet.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, how bout Tyler Zeller? He put on a show v Kentucky, and he did it with the UNC guards not going to him as much as they should have. He's a guy you make a mistake if you judge the book by its cover. Dude is a lot smoother in the lane than I imagined. He's got some serious offensive skills. But was that a career day, or can he play like that consistently. He was even flying around on D. And can he get strong enough to hang as a C in the NBA?

Henson - he's still skinny, but he's much stronger than last season. Those 2 air ball FT's... that was really ugly. But he's a great athlete at 6'9, and he can really defend. He's a tweener forward and needs to show more small forward skills, imo. His strenghts and weaknesses are a lot like Aminu's, imo.

On the Vesely/Lewis comp, remember Lewis is strictly a stretch 4 - he was an amazing long distance shooter. Vesely's a very different kind of player, imo - more of an energy athletic guy with few skills.

[princeofpalace]

I'm now convinced that Terrence Jones is a 3 in the NBA - in the Melo mold. He's extremely comfortable on the perimeter, and he doesn't have the size, length, and leaping ability to excell as an NBA 4. He'll be an excellent 3man just a bit below Melo. He may not be a super-athletic 3, but his first step and BBIQ makes up for it.

I disagree with this quite a bit starting with the Melo comparison. Melo is primarily a jump shooter, sure he knows how to play in the post and can take his man off the dribble on occasion but thats not his game. Melos true bread and butter is his jump shot, particularly in the long range. Melo also takes a bunch of low percentage shots & surprisngly makes the vast majority of them. Jones is the opposite. He can shoot but thats not his game, he prefesr to take his man off the dribble and get to the hoop or float it in& he plays in the post more although his post moves are limited, usually its a jump hook. Jones can make a jumper but that is not his primary offense the way that it is for Melo.

Furthermore, Melo also offers little to nothing on the defensive end whereas Jones has shown that he is capable of defending out on the perimeter as well as in the post. Jones does not have crazy height- should be around 6'8'-6'9' but he is long, has a big body and good instincts which makes him an effective post defender. He looks more comfortable as a post defender than he does when he's out on the perimeter.

Also, while Jones is probably a hair under 6'9'- he compensates fine with his strength- he's a real big body out there and will probably continue to get stronger, he is long and he does have great leaping ability . Jones is a true combo forward, not a tweener- a guy who can't really play either position, or a strict SF or a strict PF. If he measures in the 6'9' range, I'd have no qualms starting him at PF but if he comes in at 6'7-6'8 thats when you look at him as a starting SF, backup PF.