What does the '11 Raptors spiked rebounding tell us?

Dr Positivity · Post #1 » by **Dr Positivity** » Sat Dec 4, 2010 9:14 pm

Thought this was an interesting stat so far this year, and not just cause it involves my team

Last year the Raptors had a 49.5% total rebound rate (21st), 72.9 DRB% (23rd), 24.7 ORB% (24th). So a bad rebounding team. We lost Bosh in the summer who grabbed 10.8 rebounds a game at a 17.7 TRB% and 25.2 DRB%, ranking 10th in both categories

So logically, losing him should lead to a disastrous rebounding team. Not only is this year's present team not disastrous, but they're actually great at rebounding. Their 52.3 TRB% ranks tied for 2nd in the league, 75.2 DRB% is 11th, 30.2 ORB% is 5th.

Meanwhile Miami was 10th in TRB% in 09-10 and are 14th this year, adding Lebron and Bosh (two of the best rebounders at their position) and sending Beasley and JO out (both awful rebounders for their position). They fell from 6th to 9th in DRB% and 19th to 27th in ORB%

It would appear at the very least, we can assume Bosh's rebounding to fit under TrueLAFan's "Camby empty rebound effect" - Both were skinny guys who didn't box out much. (and by the way Portland's rebounding, particularly on the defensive end, has fallen off big time this year) So it'd seem leaving their man open to jump for a rebound had a neutral or negative effect on their rebounding. This makes sense. I think it's more important to treat rebounding as denying opponents offensive boards than grabbing defensive boards. The negative value of a given offensive rebound is so far greater than the positive value of grabbing a defensive board. If you don't grab the DRB, your team is still 75-80% likely to get the ball. If you allow an offensive board, your team has 0% chance to have the ball. Big difference.

Of course, a team with the worst rebounding center of all time ranking top 2 in TRB% certainly should make us take a double take on our rebounding perceptions. It makes me believe rebounding is about so much more than your biggest guy's stats. Perimeter guys are important, the distribution of roles is important (if someone's only job is to rebound, he's more likely to do it), and effort is huge. Where the shots are coming from is important for offensive rebounds. Last year Hedo, Bosh, Bargnani all were on the perimeter, which is no spot for offensive rebounds. Having Evans and Amir Johnson inside makes a big difference, especially with the other big man outside. Evans and Amir have the two best ORB%s in the league, btw

In the case of a Bargnani - his lack of rebounding may not be forgiveable, but you can make the case being a 7'1 guy who doesn't jump or leave his man to is not hurting his team if he's denying the opponent offensive rebounds. The rebounds just distribute to the rest of the team. Chris Bosh and Marcus Camby grab 10 rebounds a game by leaving their man and jumping for balls... At the very least I'm considering the difference between staying home on rebounders and jumpers, is far less than the numbers suggest.

Rebounding may be more like blocking shots than we realize. Duncan has always gotten credit for his 2.5bpg+ being completley in position and set in the defense, compared to Camby's 3bpg leaving his man all the time. Maybe it's the same with rebounding. There's a difference between 10rpg destroying your opponent's ORB% and 10rpg jumping for defensive rebounds. I would love to see a opponent ORB% stat, I think it'd be the most important rebounding stat if accurate.

princeofpalace · Post #2 » by **princeofpalace** » Sun Dec 5, 2010 6:39 pm

Raps fans thus far have been forgetting to mention Reggie Evans impact. They did lose Bosh but they replaced him with a much better rebounder in Evans.

I cannot see Raps remaining a good rebounding team without Evans.

raptorforlife88 · Post #3 » by **raptorforlife88** » Sun Dec 5, 2010 7:29 pm

princeofpalace wrote:Raps fans thus far have been forgetting to mention Reggie Evans impact. They did lose Bosh but they replaced him with a much better rebounder in Evans.

I cannot see Raps remaining a good rebounding team without Evans.

Without Reggie for the last two games, the Raps have continued to out rebound opponents. Washington by a substantial margin, and Oklahama by a fairly large margin as well. Amir Johnson, Ed Davis and Joey Dorsey are all effective rebounders as well.

AussieBuck · Post #4 » by **AussieBuck** » Thu Dec 9, 2010 9:02 am

Slightly above average defensive rebounding and epic offensive rebounding isn't that amazing when you have 15 games @ 27 minutes a game of Reggie Evans and 21 games @ 22 mins of Amir Johnson. They are the top 2 offensive rebounders in the league and 1st and 23rd overall in rebounding. Not really a great mystery.

nonemus · Post #5 » by **nonemus** » Fri Dec 10, 2010 12:13 am

So basically, TS% is to scoring efficiency as TRB% (or, rather, a look at both DRB and ORB %'s) is to rebounding?

Levy2725 · Post #6 » by **Levy2725** » Fri Dec 10, 2010 7:02 pm

They could probably increase their rebounding a little more if they were willing to sacrifice some offense and get Joey Dorsey on the court a little more. At one point last week he had the 2nd highest TRB% in the league to Reggie Evans. I'm not saying playing him would make them a better team, but it would likely make them a better rebounding team.

http://hickory-high.com/2010/12/02/on-the-rebound/

Jimmy76 · Post #7 » by **Jimmy76** » Fri Dec 10, 2010 11:35 pm

nonemus wrote:So basically, TS% is to scoring efficiency as TRB% (or, rather, a look at both DRB and ORB %'s) is to rebounding?

Sorta

In the sense that it's a better measure than the traditional box score way of measuring rebounding I'd say so since it accounts for pace and measures by rebounds available so it won't inflate the rebounding numbers of a team that gives up 30 offensive boards but still has a ton of defensive boards due to pace and a really low opp fg%

dream_catcher_9 · Post #8 » by **dream_catcher_9** » Sat Dec 11, 2010 6:24 pm

So its basically better to box out your man 100% of the time and grab 7 rebounds, then not box out at all and grab 10 or so? Interesting....

Post #9 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Dec 12, 2010 2:15 am

nonemus wrote:So basically, TS% is to scoring efficiency as TRB% (or, rather, a look at both DRB and ORB %'s) is to rebounding?

TS% = true shooting percentage, where "true" is used to emphasize the inaccuracy of the traditional FG% stat.
TRB% = total rebound percentage, where the "total" is included because of the focus on "offensive rebounding percentage" and "defensive rebounding percentage". It's really the "%" part that is what's new, not the "T".

Post #10 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Dec 12, 2010 2:19 am

dream_catcher_9 wrote:So its basically better to box out your man 100% of the time and grab 7 rebounds, then not box out at all and grab 10 or so? Interesting....

Nah. However many rebounds that are available (based on # of shots missed) when you're on the court, that's what your personal rebounds are divided by to get a %. Whether or not you box out on a given play has nothing to do with it.

AussieBuck · Post #11 » by **AussieBuck** » Sun Dec 12, 2010 4:38 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
dream_catcher_9 wrote:So its basically better to box out your man 100% of the time and grab 7 rebounds, then not box out at all and grab 10 or so? Interesting....

Nah. However many rebounds that are available (based on # of shots missed) when you're on the court, that's what your personal rebounds are divided by to get a %. Whether or not you box out on a given play has nothing to do with it.

I think you're replying to a Bargnani defender there.