Shaun Marcum Traded to the Brewers for Brett Lawrie

[The Flying Gent]

I utterly do not get the people unsatisfied with this trade.

Marcum was almost certainly not going to be a key part of this team by the time it's ready to truly contend, or at least not for the sustained contention that AA likes to talk about, and a top 50 prospect is tremendous value for him.

[Raps in 4]

I utterly do not get the people unsatisfied with this trade.

Marcum was almost certainly not going to be a key part of this team by the time it's ready to truly contend, or at least not for the sustained contention that AA likes to talk about, and a top 50 prospect is tremendous value for him.

AND he's Canadian.

[Hoopstarr]

Can't we just call Marcum the PTBNL in the Charlie V trade?

[darth_federer]

So you're an orthopaedic surgeon now? Injury risk is injury risk. We traded for him, so I think the risk must have been acceptable but I don't buy that Marcum was a big injury risk himself.

No, but you don't need to be an orthopedic surgeon to know that some delivery styles are far more risky than others. Here's an article about the Jays' injury troubles from last year talking about the inverted W. It's also something that you can see in live action with Marcum...the timing on his release often seems odd, which leads to a very physical (and often somewhat disjointed) release.

There is a time to draw a line in the sand and say we're not going backward. That doesn't mean the Jays have to make a batch of contend-now moves, but I want to see that line drawn at being at a minimum, a .500 team for 2011. Right now, AA is kicking sand over the line that is there so he can make a new line in 2012 or 2013, which means another 4-5 years of building. I'm not setting foot in the Stadium again until I see that line in the sand drawn firmly. It's no use investing emotionally in a 2011 season where the objectives are so obscure, even meaningless. I hope the next week or two bring some moves that suggest that there is a commitment to .500 ball in 2011.

Isn't playing .500 ball and finishing ten games out of a playoff berth pretty meaningless as well?

So thats one guy who thinks its bad. If it was that bad (pretty much guaranteed risk) then wouldnt all major league staffs try to iron out the kinks? I dont understand why they would give out millions of dollars if there was any chance a guy's throwing style was injury prone.

From the article he sourced, another pitching guru said this

However, just the other day I had an exchange with a pitching guru named Paul Nyman in one of the forums on Steven Ellis' Lets Talk Pitching web site where he indicated that the Inverted W is indeed something something that he advocates...

I can point to literally hundreds of players who have benefited significantly using the exact same methods (inverted W, scapula loading, pelvic loading, etc.) that you THINK are a problem or what you THINK causes problems.

Lots of opinions on this no?

[dagger]

I beginning to wonder if this is Rogers being cheaper than I thought

Yeah; so they're fine with offering $20 million to Chapman and $10+ million to Hechavarria (two kids who could have never seen a single major league game), spending $10+ million on the draft (more kids who may never play a single game) yet they are cheaping out on an established major league player that is already bringing wins and selling tickets? Thats not even remotely believable.

By advanced metrics Marcum was our 3rd best starter last year. Granted that he was shopped last trade deadline, and moved now, it is obvious that the people in charge of our organization laugh at the notion of him being our "ace". He was by far the most perishable of our current starters and they chose to sell high on him.

I'm not buying that nonsense. First of all they amortize a contract like Hechavarria or any other player's front loaded deal over its length. Secondly, it comes out of an overall payroll that is declining. They might even have borrowed some of that against the 2011 payroll. BJ Ryan is gone, the subsidy for Halliday is gone, Downs is gone... According to various websites, we had an $80 million major league payroll. As of early October, we had a $43 million payroll for 2011. We've added a few contracts, bought out Gregg, and you have to pencil in money for Bautista, Frasor, Morrow and Escobar. It looks very much like we'll not get to $80 million at this rate. We could even make a splash signing and not make $80 million.

Also, keep in mind payroll peaked two years ago at $97 million. And we'd have to sign Crawford to challenge that.

[trwi7]

Lawrie led the Southern league in errors at 2B. There was already talk among the Brewers about moving him to the OF so that's not a good sign, unless Alex and Co think they can fix him. He'd have a lot less value as a corner OF.

He was also the second youngest player in the Southern League and has only played 2B fulltime for two years. I've seen him play, he's not a bad defender. One game I was at he got an error for leaping to try to catch a high throw from the catcher on a stolen base while trying to avoid the baserunner.

[youreachiteach]

Even leaving Greinke aside for a moment, this not a particularly shrewd move. Pitching talent, especially fairly cost effective pitching talent that would in all likelihood re-sign if we asked, is generally better regarded than talented prospects w/ no position. We're not talking about about Jesus Montero here.

The chance for this deal to blow up in our face is fairly high. I do n't think it's nearly the good risk you are assuming it to be. And by the way, 29 is NOT old for a finesse pitcher.

Marcum is old relative to the core of this team. He's already had one major surgery, and as Schad has so helpfully pointed out, he continues to be an injury risk. He comes from a position of depth on this team; we have something of an embarrassment of riches in the pitching department. He is one of the better pitchers around, but his production is not irreplaceable, especially by a team with the kind pitching depth we have.

Take all that and turn it into a consensus top 50 prospect and i have no problem calling it a shrewd move.

If i live in canada and sell you water and you live in the desert, should I sell it to you at the same rate I buy it for? (putting aside all very true moral objections to this line of rational).

Marcum is worth even more to the Brewers than he is to us. Ergo, the price should be MORE exepnsive, not a "reasonable" deal simply because we have a surplus. If he was a really high ranked positon player I could see it. But he has the "not enough power for the outfield and not enouh defence for the infield" problem. Don't we have a surplus of those too?

[Michael Bradley]

I don't get the "sell high" comments here. Wouldn't selling high mean the team actually got more value of its highly valued asset than what we could reasonably expect from him moving forward? What team trades a starter of Marcum's calibre for a 20-year old non-elite prospect? The Jays should have had all the leverage in this trade. Maybe they sold high on Marcum, if you want to call it that, but that doesn't mean the return justifies the value.

[Waylon Mercy]

I don't understand why people think Prospects and Potential are guaranteed things?

Do we need to look at the definition of what prospect means?

People act as if every prospect is a guaranteed thing that won't bust...

If your gonna trade Marcum i'd rather we get somebody who's a little proven that can
play everyday.

I have nothing against Lawrie but were not talking about a can't miss prospect here plus
there is headcase question marks.

Guys like Marcum shouldn't be taken for granted.... If your gonna have a young team
its nice to have a proven vet who's not even that old making reasonable money who
learned under Halladay to mentor them.

[-MetA4-]

I'm not buying that nonsense. First of all they amortize a contract like Hechavarria or any other player's front loaded deal over its length. Secondly, it comes out of an overall payroll that is declining. They might even have borrowed some of that against the 2011 payroll. BJ Ryan is gone, the subsidy for Halliday is gone, Downs is gone... According to various websites, we had an $80 million major league payroll. As of early October, we had a $43 million payroll for 2011. We've added a few contracts, bought out Gregg, and you have to pencil in money for Bautista, Frasor, Morrow and Escobar. It looks very much like we'll not get near $80 million at this rate. We could even make a splash signing and not make $80 million.

How many scouts have we signed? We have guys on board as "advisers" who were former high-position front office people. How much did we shell out to move the biggest scouting staff in the league around the continent?

I fail to realize how Rogers has stepped up boat-loads of money to make improvements in an aspect of baseball (player development) that makes absolutely no current financial profits (and may NEVER lead to any wins or profits), yet they are penny-pinching?? A penny-pinching organization does the exact opposite.

[The Flying Gent]

Even leaving Greinke aside for a moment, this not a particularly shrewd move. Pitching talent, especially fairly cost effective pitching talent that would in all likelihood re-sign if we asked, is generally better regarded than talented prospects w/ no position. We're not talking about about Jesus Montero here.

The chance for this deal to blow up in our face is fairly high. I do n't think it's nearly the good risk you are assuming it to be. And by the way, 29 is NOT old for a finesse pitcher.

Marcum is old relative to the core of this team. He's already had one major surgery, and as Schad has so helpfully pointed out, he continues to be an injury risk. He comes from a position of depth on this team; we have something of an embarrassment of riches in the pitching department. He is one of the better pitchers around, but his production is not irreplaceable, especially by a team with the kind pitching depth we have.

Take all that and turn it into a consensus top 50 prospect and i have no problem calling it a shrewd move.

If i live in canada and sell you water and you live in the desert, should I sell it to you at the same rate I buy it for? (putting aside all very true moral objections to this line of rational).

Marcum is worth even more to the Brewers than he is to us. Ergo, the price should be MORE exepnsive, not a "reasonable" deal simply because we have a surplus. If he was a really high ranked positon player I could see it. But he has the "not enough power for the outfield and not enouh defence for the infield" problem. Don't we have a surplus of those too?

Milwaukee, and literally no one else, gives a **** about our surplus of pitching.

If you're seriously criticizing AA for getting a top 50 prospect for Marcum, at best a #2 starter, well, i'm not interested in continuing the debate.

[dagger]

I'm not buying that nonsense. First of all they amortize a contract like Hechavarria or any other player's front loaded deal over its length. Secondly, it comes out of an overall payroll that is declining. They might even have borrowed some of that against the 2011 payroll. BJ Ryan is gone, the subsidy for Halliday is gone, Downs is gone... According to various websites, we had an $80 million major league payroll. As of early October, we had a $43 million payroll for 2011. We've added a few contracts, bought out Gregg, and you have to pencil in money for Bautista, Frasor, Morrow and Escobar. It looks very much like we'll not get near $80 million at this rate. We could even make a splash signing and not make $80 million.

How many scouts have we signed? We have guys on board as "advisers" who were former high-position front office people. How much did we shell out to move the biggest scouting staff in the league around the continent?


I fail to realize how Rogers has stepped up boat-loads of money to make improvements in an aspect of baseball (player development) that makes absolutely no current financial profits (and may NEVER lead to any wins or profits), yet they are penny-pinching?? A penny-pinching organization does the exact opposite.

You can sign ten scouts and their aggregate salary would be half of what Edwin Encarnacion made last year.

Your point eludes me.

And we've already heard that a few of those top notch scouts have moved on. What does that tell you?



By the way, Griffin says it's Marcum for Lawrie straight up.

[Raps in 4]

I don't get the "sell high" comments here. Wouldn't selling high mean the team actually got more value of its highly valued asset than what we could reasonably expect from him moving forward? What team trades a starter of Marcum's calibre for a 20-year old non-elite prospect? The Jays should have had all the leverage in this trade. Maybe they sold high on Marcum, if you want to call it that, but that doesn't mean the return justifies the value.

+1

[G-Mac]

From a personal standpoint, any regrets I have about this trade are in essence, illogical. I have been drinking the AA kool-aid and have been totally buying into rebuilding the farm system and bringing up our own guys who will be controllable players. Marcum was a guy who basically has followed that route through the system, though through the JP and AA eras.

This type of player is someone who basically, I feel I have a strange vested attachment to because of how long he has been with the organization, and how tough a competitor he is. He is a guy that goes out there every 5th day, gets dirty and gets it done. Toronto fans love these kinds of players, JYD, Domi, etc. It is tough to see someone go who is such a respectable player, especially when we were basically blind sided. This is overall a stupid reason to think negatively on a trade, but this is one of those trades where time will make us realize it was probably a pretty good trade.

Maybe some others have the same opinion, maybe not. Maybe I just get to emotionally involved in my teams lol.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yeah, this isn't a good deal at all. In fact, it's pretty close to terrible. You can't be trading a 3.5 WAR pitcher for a raw prospect like Brett Lawrie.

[darth_federer]

Yeah, this isn't a good deal at all. In fact, it's pretty close to terrible. You can't be trading a 3.5 WAR pitcher for a raw prospect like Brett Lawrie.

I agree with this. I hope it isn't straight up or its maybe just a precursor to another move.

[Randle McMurphy]

Greinke isn't as much of an upgrade on Marcum as you think, IMO.

Greinke's 2008 season was 1.4 WAR higher than Marcum this year. His "down year" this year was 1.7 WAR higher.

That's nice, but Greinke pitches in the AL Central. If he moves to the AL East, his WAR will go down significantly.

[-MetA4-]

And we've already heard that a few of those top notch scouts have moved on. What does that tell you?

That they took pay increases? You go out and build the best scouting staff and other teams are going to come calling.

[andyo]

Looks like a great deal. I liked Marcum, but he did not seem to have an overwhelming arsenal. He's already had Tommy John. Looks like we also got what people are saying is one of the top prospects in the league, and the Brewer's top prospect in their farm system. What's not to like? I don't get it. I'm sure Toronto sport fans are tired of band-aid moves to compete at a mediocre level. AA is doing a proper rebuild, stockpiling young talent, selling high for young talent.

Not to mention he's Canadian, that's always a bonus. We sold high on Marcum, I don't think his stuff is as good as his stats indicated last season. As for the people wanting "proven talent" for Marcum, I highly doubt Marcum would have gotten anyone substantially proven that still had immense upside. Unless you guys wanted someone that could contribute now in the hopes we can compete for the AL east pennant right now. Fact of the matter is, baseball players tend to take a while to develop. It's too much to ask when your expecting a return of Marcum's caliber for "proven" talent that is also young, and fits our current scheme moving forward.

[Randle McMurphy]

I think the Greinke stuff is mentioned just because the Jays were connected to him in rumors recently. If the Jays are trading Marcum for 20-year old prospect(s), then they might as well trade Bautista too. Doesn't make sense to create this much of a downgrade to the rotation, trade for players years away from contributing, and expect to remain competitive in the AL East in 2011. Drabek and Rzep are not going to pitch like 2008/2010 Marcum, at least not not yet (if they ever do at all). AA seems to be conceding 2011, unless he has something else up his sleeve.

Yep, exactly. This is a move of a rebuilding team, not a team that thinks they can contend in the next few seasons.