Shaun Marcum Traded to the Brewers for Brett Lawrie

[ItsDanger]

ugh, thumbs down for me. Cant believe we couldnt get more. Have never seen him play but his stats do scream mid-infielder. BA is mediocre at best, looks like a hacker. Guess he has good speed though. Replacement for Hill down the road? Drabek gets a spot then?

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Greinke isn't as much of an upgrade on Marcum as you think, IMO.

Greinke's 2008 season was 1.4 WAR higher than Marcum this year. His "down year" this year was 1.7 WAR higher.

That's nice, but Greinke pitches in the AL Central. If he moves to the AL East, his WAR will go down significantly.

Not necessarily. Although he hasn't pitched against the Yankees in a long time, his numbers were quite good against Boston, Tampa. Not very good against Baltimore though.

[Randle McMurphy]

I beginning to wonder if this is Rogers being cheaper than I thought

Yeah; so they're fine with offering $20 million to Chapman and $10+ million to Hechavarria (two kids who could have never seen a single major league game), spending $10+ million on the draft (more kids who may never play a single game) yet they are cheaping out on an established major league player that is already bringing wins and selling tickets? Thats not even remotely believable.

By advanced metrics Marcum was our 3rd best starter last year. Granted that he was shopped last trade deadline, and moved now, it is obvious that the people in charge of our organization laugh at the notion of him being our "ace". He was by far the most perishable of our current starters and they chose to sell high on him.

I'm not buying that nonsense. First of all they amortize a contract like Hechavarria or any other player's front loaded deal over its length. Secondly, it comes out of an overall payroll that is declining. They might even have borrowed some of that against the 2011 payroll. BJ Ryan is gone, the subsidy for Halliday is gone, Downs is gone... According to various websites, we had an $80 million major league payroll. As of early October, we had a $43 million payroll for 2011. We've added a few contracts, bought out Gregg, and you have to pencil in money for Bautista, Frasor, Morrow and Escobar. It looks very much like we'll not get to $80 million at this rate. We could even make a splash signing and not make $80 million.

Also, keep in mind payroll peaked two years ago at $97 million. And we'd have to sign Crawford to challenge that.

To me, it's utterly inexcusable that a corporation like Rogers has a below-average payroll in comparison to the rest of baseball. But I guess a lot of people are OK with that.

[The Flying Gent]

IMO, this thread can summarized as such: Marcum fans pissed off becuase Marcum was traded.

People actually thinking it is an indication of Rogers being cheap is also only laughably stupid. **** this noise, too frustrating.

[Randle McMurphy]

Not necessarily. Although he hasn't pitched against the Yankees in a long time, his numbers were quite good against Boston, Tampa. Not very good against Baltimore though.

I don't care what he's done against them in recent history. If you're facing NYY, BOS, and TAM in half of your starts in place of CHI, MIN, and DET, your numbers are going to go down.

Anyway, why are we talking about Greinke anymore anyway? That's the move a contending team would make, not a team that just traded one of their top starters for a raw AA prospect.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

I think the Greinke stuff is mentioned just because the Jays were connected to him in rumors recently. If the Jays are trading Marcum for 20-year old prospect(s), then they might as well trade Bautista too. Doesn't make sense to create this much of a downgrade to the rotation, trade for players years away from contributing, and expect to remain competitive in the AL East in 2011. Drabek and Rzep are not going to pitch like 2008/2010 Marcum, at least not not yet (if they ever do at all). AA seems to be conceding 2011, unless he has something else up his sleeve.

Yep, exactly. This is a move of a rebuilding team, not a team that thinks they can contend in the next few seasons.

We are a rebuilding team. Stop kidding yourselves. We're closer than we thought, but there's no guarantee that Bautista repeats last year's performance, or that Wells performs like last year.

[Geddy]

I'm sure there were other teams out there desperate for starting pitching that probably would have given up more than that. I don't like this one bit at the moment, but i'll wait to see what other moves are made in the upcoming months.

[Randle McMurphy]

IMO, this thread can summarized as such: Marcum fans pissed off becuase Marcum was traded.

No, that's how you narrowly summarize it. I've been wanting to trade Marcum for over a year now...just not in a poor deal for a AA prospect.

[-MetA4-]

That's nice, but Greinke pitches in the AL Central. If he moves to the AL East, his WAR will go down significantly.

You have absolutely zero proof of this. Greinke vs. the AL East this year:

Greinke vs. Tampa: 2 GS, 15 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.67 WHIP
Greinke vs. Toronto: 2 GS, 15 IP, 2.40 ERA, 0.60 WHIP
Greinke vs. Baltimore: 2 GS, 15 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Greinke vs. Boston: 2 GS, 12.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

57.2 IP, 17 earned runs, 2.65 ERA

[Randle McMurphy]

ugh, thumbs down for me. Cant believe we couldnt get more. Have never seen him play but his stats do scream mid-infielder. BA is mediocre at best, looks like a hacker. Guess he has good speed though. Replacement for Hill down the road? Drabek gets a spot then?

Lawrie is going to have to develop quite a bit more to be a MLB player.

[Schad]

So thats one guy who thinks its bad. If it was that bad (pretty much guaranteed risk) then wouldnt all major league staffs try to iron out the kinks? I dont understand why they would give out millions of dollars if there was any chance a guy's throwing style was injury prone.

It's not pretty much guaranteed that it will lead to injury, but it's a red flag. When the guy then tears his UCL, which indicates that something in his mechanics has been putting serious stress on his elbow and possibly shoulder, it's a much bigger red flag.

I'm not totally sold on this deal, but Lawrie has more star potential (including more likelihood of reaching that level) than just about anyone else in our system. His ISO power as a 20 year old in AA was .166...that's quite good considering the level, and suggests that the HRs could come fairly soon. And if they do, his value rises well above that of Marcum.

[darth_federer]

He didnt pitch against the Yankees right? I know he has anxiety issues so Im wondering if we can count on him pitching in Yankee stadium on 3 days rest or in a must win start. Im not suggesting that hes about to collapse, but is that a consideration?

[Randle McMurphy]

That's nice, but Greinke pitches in the AL Central. If he moves to the AL East, his WAR will go down significantly.

You have absolutely zero proof of this. Greinke vs. the AL East this year:

Greinke vs. Tampa: 2 GS, 15 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.67 WHIP
Greinke vs. Toronto: 2 GS, 15 IP, 2.40 ERA, 0.60 WHIP
Greinke vs. Baltimore: 2 GS, 15 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Greinke vs. Boston: 2 GS, 12.2 IP, 3.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

57.2 IP, 17 earned runs, 2.65 ERA

So you're citing 57 Yankee-less innings as proof that Greinke's numbers won't go down against AL East competition?

You can't really be serious here, right?

[ItsDanger]

Cant we trade for a legit power hitting 1B at some point, please?!?!

[darth_federer]

Twirly you got a good deal. Marcum will be really good in the NL

Marcum's non-BOS/TB/NYY numbers: 2.74 ERA, 6.1IP/start, 8.0k/9, 2.0bb.9, 0.9hr/9, 1.08 WHIP in 21 starts

[Randle McMurphy]

I think the Greinke stuff is mentioned just because the Jays were connected to him in rumors recently. If the Jays are trading Marcum for 20-year old prospect(s), then they might as well trade Bautista too. Doesn't make sense to create this much of a downgrade to the rotation, trade for players years away from contributing, and expect to remain competitive in the AL East in 2011. Drabek and Rzep are not going to pitch like 2008/2010 Marcum, at least not not yet (if they ever do at all). AA seems to be conceding 2011, unless he has something else up his sleeve.

Yep, exactly. This is a move of a rebuilding team, not a team that thinks they can contend in the next few seasons.

We are a rebuilding team. Stop kidding yourselves. We're closer than we thought, but there's no guarantee that Bautista repeats last year's performance, or that Wells performs like last year.

Then we should trade Bautista, then. There's no reason for him to be on this team next year if we're rebuilding.

[G-Mac]

To me, it's utterly inexcusable that a corporation like Rogers has a below-average payroll in comparison to the rest of baseball. But I guess a lot of people are OK with that.

I'll take a below average payroll for now to prevent us getting handcuffed with bad contracts. When you spend money just to spend money, mistakes happen, like Wells and B.J Ryan. Wait to spend the cash until you know exactly what you are getting, and it puts you over the top. I'm not saying I want money-ball garbage, I am just saying wait for a couple of these young guys to prove they are legit, and sign some players to big money that will get this team over the hump and into the playoffs.

[Randle McMurphy]

Twirly you got a good deal. Marcum will be really good in the NL

Marcum's non-BOS/TB/NYY numbers: 2.74 ERA, 6.1IP/start, 8.0k/9, 2.0bb.9, 0.9hr/9, 1.08 WHIP in 21 starts

Marcum will absolutely dominate in the NL. There should be no worry about his performance, the only question for him is durability.

[-MetA4-]

So you're citing 57 Yankee-less innings as proof that Greinke's numbers won't go down against AL East competition?

You can't really be serious here, right?

I cant be serious? L.M.F.A.O.

You are making a statement based off of zero factual support. Greinke is one of the most talented pitchers in the game; he can go out and dominate anyone.

The idea that you honestly believe that Marcum is comparable to Greinke says everything that needs to be said.

[Schad]

So you're citing 57 Yankee-less innings as proof that Greinke's numbers won't go down against AL East competition?

You can't really be serious here, right?

Heh, Marcum himself only threw 6 IP against the Yankees this year...1 start, 5 ER.