Where does Lawrie fit into our top 10 Prospects?

[luvtheteam]

I'm thinking Lawrie goes right to the top as our #1 Prospect. We've had some discussions on the 'unproveness' of many of the kids, so there may be a teenager in the system that explodes to higher performance down the road. However, in terms of what most have said is our top 10, it seems we would face him off against Drabek. I like Drabek, but based on what i've read i would give the edge to Lawrie.

[WpgPage]

I believe he would be second on our list If BA redid it right now, on my personal list I would have him around #3 with this move and the nice amount of picks we have I would be surprised if the jays farm was not top 5 next year.

[dagger]

#1 prospect could be a kid in A ball. Not the quality player closest to the majors. I remember when Vlad Guerrero was working his way through the Expos system. Hardcore fans were tracking him like the Second Coming almost from Day 1. And a #1 prospect should at least have a well-defined positional capability, because if he doesn't project at a particular position, he could become "Brett Wallaced" and fish for a role at the major league level.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

If not #1, then #2 I'd imagine, behind or in front of Drabek

[-MetA4-]

No way on #1.

You can argue him #2 or #3. Sickels says he'd have him #2, Callis says #3.

[torontoaces04]

Drabek, after the season he put together last year in New Hampshire, has to be considered at this point to be the undisputed #1 in our organization.

I for one am a fan of this move. Is it a move that comes with a fair bit of risk? Yes. Does the potential upside of this deal (if Lawrie stays on track and at 2nd) outweight the risk? That is for each of us to decide, today and for years to come. I am going on the record of being in favour of this move.

Who knows what the future may hold... Heck, Marcum could go to Milwaukee and become an absolute monster for them, creating a huge 1-2 punch alonge side Gallardo. As well, Lawrie could keep developing, and be the starting 2nd baseman for the Blue Jays in 2012. He could go on to hit upwards of 25+ homeruns per season. In this scenario, I'd say that it would be a win-win for both sides. Sometimes these types of trades are the best kind... *cough* Mcgriff + Fernandez for Alomar + Carter *cough*

With all of that being said, this deal could also go the exact opposite way. Marcum could struggle in Milwaukee, and Lawrie could potentially never pan out at 2nd or in general. Essentially, this is one of those deals which will have to be reevaluated year after year to see how each player developes.

[luvtheteam]

BA has a question and answer session and some guys wrote in to ask where Lawrie would fit into the
Blue Jays top ten. BA thinks 2nd. I'll stay with my original call of putting him at the top. I'll take a 5 tool everyday player well ahead of a projected middle of the rotation pitcher.

Fact is, we won't know how all this works out for several years....but still fun to speculate!

Per BA:


Where would second baseman Brett Lawrie fit on Baseball America's Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects list? Do you see him cracking the infield in Toronto or moving to an outfield corner? I really hope they don't end up flipping a combo of Lawrie, Kyle Drabek and Travis Snider to the Royals for Zack Greinke.

Darryl Stiver
Toronto

I read that Brett Lawrie would have been the No. 1 prospect on Baseball America's Brewers Top 10 Prospects list. Where will he fit on the Blue Jays Top 10? Also, what type of package would Toronto have to surrender in order to obtain Zack Greinke?

Byron Alexander
Regina, Sask.

Where would Brett Lawrie rank on the Blue Jays Top 10? Also, what is his ETA, the odds he sticks at second base and the most likely destination if he can't?

Scott Upson
Norwalk, Conn.

Every year, there's usually at least one prospect who gets caught in Top 10 limbo, and this year it's Lawrie. He would have been our No. 1 Brewers prospect, but he got traded to the Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum before our Milwaukee Top 10 came out—and after our Toronto Top 10 was published. So Lawrie won't make a Top 10 in our magazine or on our website, though he will appear in the 2011 Prospect Handbook.

Here's the scouting report that would have appeared with our Brewers Top 10 had Lawrie stayed put:

The Brewers put Lawrie on the fast track in 2010 by assigning him to Double-A Huntsville at age 20, making him the second-youngest regular in the Southern League. Very confident to the point of cockiness, he was anything but intimidated and got better as the season progressed and he adjusted to the higher level of competition. He led the league in runs (90), hits (158), triples (16) and total bases (250). Lawrie has very strong hands and a quick bat, allowing him to wait on pitches and drive the ball to all fields. He's not a prolific home run hitter but piles up extra-base hits by shooting the ball into the gaps. Lawrie needs to balance his aggressiveness with more plate discipline, however. Though he stole 30 bases, he was caught 13 times and his speed is just average. Lawrie has smoothed out some of his rough edges in the field but still must work on making his hands softer, as evidenced by the 25 errors he committed in 131 games at second base in 2010. He has solid arm strength but may not have the first-step quickness to remain at second. He won't have to be a Gold Glove defender because his bat will get him to the big leagues and keep him there. If he has to move to an outfield corner, he'll still provide enough offense to profile as a quality regular.

Lawrie will rank No. 2 on our Blue Jays list, between righthanders Drabek and Deck McGuire. I don't think Lawrie will stay at second base and think his big league home will be right field. He should join Toronto at some point in 2012.

[Schad]

#1 prospect could be a kid in A ball. Not the quality player closest to the majors.

He just played his age 20 season in AA and will start the year in AAA, unless he explodes in Spring Training, in which case he probably makes the big club. I don't think that he's #1 (I'd agree with #2), but he's hardly some raw kid in A- who has barely ever swung a wood bat.

As for the 'defined positional capability', I'm not sure why that matters. Jesus Montero is a top five prospect and doesn't have a defined position. Bryce Harper doesn't have a defined position...he was a college C/3B who will probably play RF in the bigs. Albert Pujols didn't have a defined position...he was a third baseman in the minors, spent his first couple seasons shuttling between 1B/3B/RF/LF, and didn't settle in at first until his fourth year. Adam Jones is another good example; he was drafted as a shortstop and played the position for the first couple years of his minor league career before moving to CF.

[Skin Blues]

Yeah, unless you're a stud defender, I don't see why a defined position matters all that much. If he can hit like they think he can then they'll stick him at corner OF/IF and at 2B would be a bonus. Its nice if he can hit and field at an elite level, but elite fielders are much, much cheaper and more abundant than elite hitters.

I also doubt we'll see him before the super 2 arbitration-clock-start date which is a couple months into the season. They'll probably call him up in June or July as long as he's progressing normally, to get him ready for 2012. At that point, hopefully they can trade Hill if he's playing well enough, or stick one of them at 3B.