Official Trade Thread XIV: 6/14/10 - 12/22/10

[Ruzious]

There are a couple killer problems with that scenario, hands. One is - there's little to no chance Melo would re-sign here. Two is that the bigs here just don't cut it as far as competing for anything close to an NBA championship. Frankly, the backcourt isn't that good, either. I think it would be a ginormous mistake to trade Wall.

[nate33]

There are a couple killer problems with that scenario, hands. One is - there's little to no chance Melo would re-sign here. Two is that the bigs here just don't cut it as far as competing for anything close to an NBA championship. Frankly, the backcourt isn't that good, either. I think it would be a ginormous mistake to trade Wall.

+1

People need to get it out of their heads that Arenas is still a star-caliber basketball player. Arenas is an average player right now and I don't see much reason to expect substantial improvement. With Arenas being so average, Wall is literally our only hope. A team this lacking in talent is better off with a 19 year old freak athlete PG with a high ceiling, than an established 27-year-old 2nd-tier superstar SF. At least with Wall, we'll have another season or two to tank and acquire more talent. Melo puts us permanently in 40-win purgatory.

[dandridge 10]

There are a couple killer problems with that scenario, hands. One is - there's little to no chance Melo would re-sign here. Two is that the bigs here just don't cut it as far as competing for anything close to an NBA championship. Frankly, the backcourt isn't that good, either. I think it would be a ginormous mistake to trade Wall.

+1

People need to get it out of their heads that Arenas is still a star-caliber basketball player. Arenas is an average player right now and I don't see much reason to expect substantial improvement. With Arenas being so average, Wall is literally our only hope. A team this lacking in talent is better off with a 19 year old freak athlete PG with a high ceiling, than an established 27-year-old 2nd-tier superstar SF. At least with Wall, we'll have another season or two to tank and acquire more talent. Melo puts us permanently in 40-win purgatory.

+2. Also, Melo will not solve one of our biggest achilles heal...defense. This team needs to continue to be overhauled. We are not just one piece away. To be honest, the only two players currently on this team that I can see starting on a championship caliber team is Wall and maybe McGee (and McGee is a stretch). I'm glad we finally have an owner who will have the patience to build this team the right way.

[hands11]

Gil/Kirk
NY/Martin
Melo/Howard/Gee
Dray/Booker/Yi
McGee/Seraphin

Hamady

Is that much better than Gil/Mike Miller/Butler/Jamison/Haywood/Blatche/Nick Young/McGee/Foye ?

Are you serious ?

Nick vs MM. No question Nick is better. Nick is a much more dangerous scorer. He is younger. He has hoops. His handles are better. He doesn't get injured much. And there is no doubt he is willing to shoot. Mike Miller was a solid mature vet with a nice shoot and he played hard and trying to do all the little things like pass but he only shot when wide open and he was hurt all the time. Adv nick and the kid still has youth and upside. This one isn't even close.

Butler vs Melo ? No question Melo. I don't even need to explain that one.

Dray/Booker/Yi vs AJ/Dray. This was is well documented. Dray hands down starting as the PF. AJ wasn't a two way PF. And don't just judge Dray from this injured year. Dray hands down. Plus, like I said, a Melo would allow Dray to not need to be the finisher as much so he could flow and take what the D give him. That is his game. Then you have Booker and Yi backing Dray us instead of Dray backing up AJ getting less minutes. Not starting. Not having enough room to develop a bigger role.
Again, not comparison.

Gil/Kirk is better filling the PG roll than Gil/Foye by a mile. Foye wasn't even a PG. I don't put Foye as that better than Martin though Foye has more stats logged to show what he is. As is, Foye has only played 7 games this year. Injured. Again. And of what he has played, .367 FG and 4.6 pts a game isn't impressive. Marin is 6-7 220 and has played 18 games shooting .446 and .448 from 3 and doesn't think he should be starting like Foye did.

Only play that other line up was better was established center with Haywood. But with all the pieces we would have, Seraphin is the muscle with more leaps and youth. We would be young and inexperienced but that wouldnt be exposed nearly as much with the line ups I posted. And McGee is still a very talented young player who has made lots of progress this year and should only look better as the season plays out and should look a lot better next year with a even more muscle.

The comparison of those two teams isn't even close. One is old with a lot more players out of position or incomplete. The one I posted would crush the other team and is better for the longer term run.

[hands11]

There are a couple killer problems with that scenario, hands. One is - there's little to no chance Melo would re-sign here. Two is that the bigs here just don't cut it as far as competing for anything close to an NBA championship. Frankly, the backcourt isn't that good, either. I think it would be a ginormous mistake to trade Wall.

Melo here or not, the point was showing how moving the pieces would make us better and just how quickly that could be done by adding a star SF who has the power to fill the role this team is sorely missing. And it is a role and the design of a lot of Championship team. Star SF or Kobe/MJ type SG

Melo is one of those top players in his prime still.

Wall vs CP or Nash or D Rose isn't where Championship are going to be won. Even Stockton and Malone weren't enough to beat a team center around a MJ.

The war will be won by team with these type mostly. Kobe, LeBron, Melo, PP ( younger but still getting it done), Durrant and with the right player around him, Duncan with Manu type. You eventually need to get this type of player in their prime.

As for Melo coming here specifically, you never know what someone will do until they do it. Look at the LeBron to NY thing. Dude was wearing their hats and everything.

Regarding the bigs cutting it. For one, I never claimed they were NBA championship quality this second or this year. But McGee and Seraphin aren't going to get worse. If anything, they are just getting started. And what is needed from your center position changes some depending on what else you have on your team. With Melo ( or similar) at SF, you wouldn't need a Paul Gastol at center. What you do have is a strong athletic space eater in Seraphin and a freak 7-1 athlete in McGee who blocks shots as well as the other things we have seen from him this year. McGee is shown a lot this year. But the next year he plays, whenever that is, is when I think he will show more. We would be better now still be in position to get better in time.

As for the back court. Well, your just not sold on Nick yet then and youre thinking Gil is done. I think the consistency in which Nick is playing this year is amazing. What he is doing isn't all that new completely. We always knew he has a sweet stroke. He has proven he has handles and can get separation. What he is doing now is doing that consistently and with more efficient concentrated movement. That is what we wanted to see form him and he is now doing it. Catch, move, shot, pass, whatever. He is making quicker, smarter, more efficient moves and the end result looks to be a pretty impressive player who is just starting to grow into his shoes after 3 years of NBA experience. Why not maximize that instead of waiting so long. I realize this is a little bit of a 180 from how people saw Nick coming into the year, but sometimes you need to take a fresh objective look at the facts.

But if your objective, I can't see how you don't agree that a move like this would solve a lot of problems with who plays where, whos team it is, better players combined at their positions, more vet stars where we need them and we are still young and will likely be a healthier team longer term by letting players with the bodies can do the inside work do it. Isn't of watching Wall get clobbered.

Sorry, just not seeing the roster I posted wasn't way better a way to go vs whatever unknown thing we will do to bring this together over the next 5-6 years.

These days are the day of Kobe, Durant, Melo, Durrant, LeBron PP, and Manu for the most part.
I don't even think Dirke can get there with CB and Marion at SF.

If you don't have one of those players listed, your not winning or probably even going to the Championship.

a Derrick Rose isn't going to get it done. Nor a Nash nor a CP

Great to have, but your missing the target if that is what your are doing.

I posted similar move back when we had young Gil and Hughes.

Then again when Kobe was making a lot of noise about wanting out of LA. Funny, the topic was Gil for Kobe and the board was full of no takers on that trade. They didn't say it couldn't be done, they said they didn't want Kobe over Gil. Kind of hilarious to think of that trade now though.

[nate33]

This may have come up before, but I think it's worth revisiting:

Washington trades: Arenas
Portland trades: Roy + Pryzbilla

This actually works despite Roy's BYC status. The idea is that Roy and Arenas have similar value. Both are former stars with injury issues that may have permanently reduced their effectiveness. Roy is still a pretty good player and he plays a position of need. He's younger than Arenas too. Also, it's worth noting that he costs about $5M a year less than Arenas, which frees up some major free agency options this summer or next summer. His deal lasts a year longer, but we will be well outside the window of opportunity for free agency by then.

Roy is also a competitor who could help our team develop a winning mentality. Obviously, part if this is a medical decision more than anything else. But if we can reasonably assume that Roy can play at roughly his current level (PER in the 15-18 range) for 30-32 minutes a game, I think it makes a lot of sense.

If we follow up by dumping Hinrich for TJ Ford's expiring, we could go to work in free agency this offseason and add the 3&D SF we need plus a low post banger at PF to platoon with Blatche - I'm thinking Wilson Chandler and Carl Landry. We'll also have room to retain Young. If all goes well, our team next year would be:

PG Wall/cheap vet
SG Roy/Young
SF Chandler/lotto pick
PF Landry/Blatche/Booker
C McGee/Seraphin

That's a pretty good, well-balanced, deep young ball club with a lot of upside. There's a lot of toughguys on this team and all the pieces fit Flip's system - though we'd still need for McGee to continue and improve his defensive IQ.

If we strike out on Landry, we can hope to draft Sullinger and end up with the same chemistry.

[LyricalRico]

Combining one of nate's ideas with one of mine:

Wizards trade: Arenas and Hinrich
Wizards receive: Brand and Hamilton

Pistons trade: Hamilton, Prince, Maxiell, and Stuckey
Pistons receive: Arenas and Iguodala

Sixers trade: Brand and Iguodala
Sixers receive: Hinrich, Prince, Maxiell, and Stuckey

TRADE ID 57671974

Philly does this purely as a longterm salary dump. Detroit takes a chance on re-shaping it's roster. Washington adds some longterm salary but gets guys who are better fits. Assuming Wall actually gets healthy, all we'd need is an "el cheapo' backup PG.

Blatche/McGee
Brand/Booker
Howard/Thornton
Hamilton/Young
Wall/???

[nate33]

I don't love that Rico. That's an awful lot of money to be paying Brand and Rip. I can buy the idea of trading Arenas for one of those guys because it's a lateral move capwise. But to also trade Hinrich's short contract for the other, that's where I draw the line.

That trade weds us to that team for the next 3 full years. There is no cap room flexibility and very little trade flexibility. We'll be better, surely, but not THAT much better. And additional improvements out of Wall, McGee and Blatche would be offset by the steady decline of Brand and Rip.

In my Arenas for Roy scenario, I make the team younger and improve chemistry while sacrificing no cap space. Indeed, I generate substantial cap space for the next 3 years - about $5M a year.

[hands11]

There are a couple killer problems with that scenario, hands. One is - there's little to no chance Melo would re-sign here. Two is that the bigs here just don't cut it as far as competing for anything close to an NBA championship. Frankly, the backcourt isn't that good, either. I think it would be a ginormous mistake to trade Wall.

+1

People need to get it out of their heads that Arenas is still a star-caliber basketball player. Arenas is an average player right now and I don't see much reason to expect substantial improvement. With Arenas being so average, Wall is literally our only hope. A team this lacking in talent is better off with a 19 year old freak athlete PG with a high ceiling, than an established 27-year-old 2nd-tier superstar SF. At least with Wall, we'll have another season or two to tank and acquire more talent. Melo puts us permanently in 40-win purgatory.

No, what people need to do, since we are telling people what to do here, is get this idea in their heads.

At the end of the day, you need one of those player I keep listing and they don't come easy. And if you don't have one of them, you better find someone who is better than them somewhere.

In my scenario, we have one of them in the form of a SF and they are good now with young talent to get better vs not good and who knows what in two years until we luck into one via draft or later trade for one of them.

And last I checked. Melo was not 27 but 26. That should be in his prime for winning something big.

And who exactly is in your first tier if he is the second tier. You tiers much be like 2 players per tier.

Durrant, LeBron, Melo, Granger, PP are your top tier SFs in the league.

I think the team I posted would do a better than 40 wins. That would be taking the way short on that line up. But no risk, no reward. We can keep doing what we are doing and maybe one day we find this type of player. It wasn't Gil and it wasn't CB. That part of the reason that team was doomed before it even got started. Both thought it was them. Then add your none two way AJ PF who likes to shoot from the outside a lot and doesnt dunk and that was fools gold and I always said it was.

[nate33]

Hands,

Melo would certainly improve this ball club, but if we sacrifice Wall to get him, we limit our ceiling. Arenas, Melo and McGee is not the core of a championship roster. And with Melo on board dragging us into the first round of the playoffs every year, we won't have the ability to add more talent.

If we could add Melo while keeping Wall and McGee, I'd be all for it. But we absolutely should not sacrifice Wall's upside to make a Melo acquisition happen. We'd be relying upon Arenas to be our 2nd star, and he's just not good enough anymore. It's a moot point though. There's no chance Melo agrees to resign if Wall is traded.

[hands11]

This may have come up before, but I think it's worth revisiting:

Washington trades: Arenas
Portland trades: Roy + Pryzbilla

This actually works despite Roy's BYC status. The idea is that Roy and Arenas have similar value. Both are former stars with injury issues that may have permanently reduced their effectiveness. Roy is still a pretty good player and he plays a position of need. He's younger than Arenas too. Also, it's worth noting that he costs about $5M a year less than Arenas, which frees up some major free agency options this summer or next summer. His deal lasts a year longer, but we will be well outside the window of opportunity for free agency by then.

Roy is also a competitor who could help our team develop a winning mentality. Obviously, part if this is a medical decision more than anything else. But if we can reasonably assume that Roy can play at roughly his current level (PER in the 15-18 range) for 30-32 minutes a game, I think it makes a lot of sense.

If we follow up by dumping Hinrich for TJ Ford's expiring, we could go to work in free agency this offseason and add the 3&D SF we need plus a low post banger at PF to platoon with Blatche - I'm thinking Wilson Chandler and Carl Landry. We'll also have room to retain Young. If all goes well, our team next year would be:

PG Wall/cheap vet
SG Roy/Young
SF Chandler/lotto pick
PF Landry/Blatche/Booker
C McGee/Seraphin

That's a pretty good, well-balanced, deep young ball club with a lot of upside. There's a lot of toughguys on this team and all the pieces fit Flip's system - though we'd still need for McGee to continue and improve his defensive IQ.

If we strike out on Landry, we can hope to draft Sullinger and end up with the same chemistry.

Chandler from New York ?

So you have Landry over Dray ? How is that ?

I think what you wrote is interesting but I don't see how that team is better than what I posted. I think that team product is more in question. But it is interesting and probably more probable than what I was written, though I don't believe they are better.

[nate33]

Chandler from New York ?

Yes.

So you have Landry over Dray ? How is that ?

I figure they're roughly equal. From what we have seen so far, both players are backups on a good team, or starters on bad teams. I'd start Landry because I think the Landry/McGee combination meshes well as would the Blatche/Seraphin combination. Certainly, if Blatche proves to be the superior player in training camp, he can be the starter. Either way, it'll be good for Blatche to have some competition for the starting role. And it'll be good for Flip to have options other than Blatche on days when Blatche is lethargic and/or ineffective.

All that said, an even better option would be to add Sullinger.

[tontoz]

Melo can choose where he wants to sign. Why would he sign here with no Wall?

NJ and NY would make far more sense from his point of view.

[hands11]

Combining nate's idea with one of mine:

Wizards trade: Arenas and Hinrich
Wizards receive: Brand and Hamilton

Pistons trade: Hamilton, Prince, Maxiell, and Stuckey
Pistons receive: Arenas and Iguodala

Sixers trade: Brand and Iguodala
Sixers receive: Hinrich, Prince, Maxiell, and Stuckey

TRADE ID 57671974

Philly does this purely as a longterm salary dump. Detroit takes a chance on re-shaping it's roster. Washington adds some longterm salary but gets guys who are better fits. Assuming Wall actually gets healthy, all we'd need is an "el cheapo' backup PG.

Blatche/McGee
Brand/Booker
Howard/Thornton
Hamilton/Young
Wall/???

Still not seeing how that is better. Howard while a decent player is probably better valued as a backup SF and AT has shown he has little value. You still don't have the type of player you need at SG/SF or as a SF.

That would be probably a good team though. I have often said Dray would be a center latter in his career. But Brand would really be the center on offense with that. Lets see how things play out with Nick. He is showing me starter quality lately. And Hamilton is getting longer in the tooth.

Blatche/McGee
Brand/Booker
Howard/Thornton
Young/Hamilton
Wall/???

This may be how that ends up. It would be a good team I think but then your giving up on Seraphin ? He has no place on that team. And Brand is 31 with miles on him. I know Melo has been missing games but at least he is only 26 right now.

[hands11]

oppz

[hands11]

Chandler from New York ?

Yes.

So you have Landry over Dray ? How is that ?

I figure they're roughly equal. From what we have seen so far, both players are backups on a good team, or starters on bad teams. I'd start Landry because I think the Landry/McGee combination meshes well as would the Blatche/Seraphin combination. Certainly, if Blatche proves to be the superior player in training camp, he can be the starter. Either way, it'll be good for Blatche to have some competition for the starting role. And it'll be good for Flip to have options other than Blatche on days when Blatche is lethargic and/or ineffective.

All that said, an even better option would be to add Sullinger.

I did like the finishing ability of Chandler when we played them. I just hope that isn't what he did to us if we were to get him.

[closg00]

The official start of trade season
Washington Wizards: Josh Howard*, Hilton Armstrong. Eligible later: Cartier Martin* (December 24), Alonzo Gee (February 22).

The rest
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_ ... ade-season

[hands11]

Hands,

Melo would certainly improve this ball club, but if we sacrifice Wall to get him, we limit our ceiling. Arenas, Melo and McGee is not the core of a championship roster. And with Melo on board dragging us into the first round of the playoffs every year, we won't have the ability to add more talent.

If we could add Melo while keeping Wall and McGee, I'd be all for it. But we absolutely should not sacrifice Wall's upside to make a Melo acquisition happen. We'd be relying upon Arenas to be our 2nd star, and he's just not good enough anymore. It's a moot point though. There's no chance Melo agrees to resign if Wall is traded.

Ok, just want to spur the conversation to some of the considerations I posted. I know I don't post here much and I also know it is easy to loose track of some simple ideas that seem to aways be in place for the best teams. I believe that is this type of player I keep talking about. It does take several things to be in place for a team to be top notch or even win it all so it is easy to say yeah but it is this or you need that, but I think most if not all the best teams have this player and it isn't the PG.

Gil/Kirk
NY/Martin
Melo/Howard/Gee
Dray/Booker/Yi
McGee/Seraphin

Hamady

Like I said. Here you have lots of scoring options. Gil is just a part of it. You also have Nick who can do it all offensively and Dray who is pretty versatile himself. We finally have a well rounded finisher who can get to the line. I have have Booker and Seraphin growing in their talents. Howard as a valuable quality back up and Gee as the young gun who anything you get from him is good but not needed most games. Kirk a vet quality back up PG and Martin hitting from 3.

I think they would be very good. But like most trade ideas, we will most likely never know.

[dandridge 10]

This may have come up before, but I think it's worth revisiting:

Washington trades: Arenas
Portland trades: Roy + Pryzbilla

This actually works despite Roy's BYC status. The idea is that Roy and Arenas have similar value. Both are former stars with injury issues that may have permanently reduced their effectiveness. Roy is still a pretty good player and he plays a position of need. He's younger than Arenas too. Also, it's worth noting that he costs about $5M a year less than Arenas, which frees up some major free agency options this summer or next summer. His deal lasts a year longer, but we will be well outside the window of opportunity for free agency by then.

Roy is also a competitor who could help our team develop a winning mentality. Obviously, part if this is a medical decision more than anything else. But if we can reasonably assume that Roy can play at roughly his current level (PER in the 15-18 range) for 30-32 minutes a game, I think it makes a lot of sense.

If we follow up by dumping Hinrich for TJ Ford's expiring, we could go to work in free agency this offseason and add the 3&D SF we need plus a low post banger at PF to platoon with Blatche - I'm thinking Wilson Chandler and Carl Landry. We'll also have room to retain Young. If all goes well, our team next year would be:

PG Wall/cheap vet
SG Roy/Young
SF Chandler/lotto pick
PF Landry/Blatche/Booker
C McGee/Seraphin

That's a pretty good, well-balanced, deep young ball club with a lot of upside. There's a lot of toughguys on this team and all the pieces fit Flip's system - though we'd still need for McGee to continue and improve his defensive IQ.

If we strike out on Landry, we can hope to draft Sullinger and end up with the same chemistry.

Nate, I like the Roy trade from our perspective, but why on earth would Portland do it? They would be taking the same injury risk on a more expensive contract, for an older player that is not of equal value when you consider the defensive end of the court. Finally, Portland would probably have even more chemistry issues with a Miller/Arenas backcourt than a Miller/Roy backcourt.

[LyricalRico]

Nate, I like the Roy trade from our perspective, but why on earth would Portland do it? They would be taking the same injury risk on a more expensive contract, for an older player that is not of equal value when you consider the defensive end of the court. Finally, Portland would probably have even more chemistry issues with a Miller/Arenas backcourt than a Miller/Roy backcourt.

Miller's contract next year isn't fully guaranteed and they do have a swingman logjam (Matthew, Batum, Fernandez, Babbitt). They could waive Miller (making is salary neutral in the short-term), put Gil at PG and then have minutes for all their young players.

SF - Batum/Babbitt
SG - Matthew/Fernandez
PG - Arenas/??? (maybe they bring Koponnen over)

That squad could probably play more up-tempo instead of standing and watching Roy pound the ball in the half-court. And they'd be pretty long on the defensive end.

The thing that gives me pause from a Wiz perspective is why would Portland add salary in a Roy trade unless they were convinced that his knees were done?