Chicken Littles: Sky done fell! Draft Thread 2011

[keynote]

As far as I'm concerned this draft will feature a sure thing.

Kenneth Faried

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ken ... 325/stats/

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/pr ... erId=37289

Faired has an even more impressive set of college achievements than Millsap had. This season he put up good numbers against Ohio State (better than Sullinger). He destroyed Florida. He has posted back-to-back 20 rebound games. Last season he fared well against Kentucky and IIRC Kansas.

Through his first 9 games his pace-adjusted per 40 minute averages are 23.6 points, 18.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 3.4 steals, 2.8 blocks. His PER is 46.8. Faired is shooting 64 percent FG.

This guy is destined to be another Blair or Millsap or Wesley Matthews. I've looked at college numbers over several seasons and known they would be good. NBA starter and someone Washington should draft is what I thought about each of them and Danny Granger. Faired is a special talent.

Interesting prospect on paper. I haven't seen him play; seems worth checking out. But at 6'8", 215 lbs, this guy seems more like a Warrick than a Milsap or Blair. He doesn't give you assists or threes, so I'm guessing he's a pure 4. Short 4s can often overcome their height disadvantage, but short, lightweight 4s have a more difficult time.

[closg00]

As far as I'm concerned this draft will feature a sure thing.

Kenneth Faried

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ken ... 325/stats/

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/pr ... erId=37289

Faired has an even more impressive set of college achievements than Millsap had. This season he put up good numbers against Ohio State (better than Sullinger). He destroyed Florida. He has posted back-to-back 20 rebound games. Last season he fared well against Kentucky and IIRC Kansas.

Through his first 9 games his pace-adjusted per 40 minute averages are 23.6 points, 18.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 3.4 steals, 2.8 blocks. His PER is 46.8. Faired is shooting 64 percent FG.

This guy is destined to be another Blair or Millsap or Wesley Matthews. I've looked at college numbers over several seasons and known they would be good. NBA starter and someone Washington should draft is what I thought about each of them and Danny Granger. Faired is a special talent.

Interesting prospect on paper. I haven't seen him play; seems worth checking out. But at 6'8", 215 lbs, this guy seems more like a Warrick than a Milsap or Blair. He doesn't give you assists or threes, so I'm guessing he's a pure 4. Short 4s can often overcome their height disadvantage, but short, lightweight 4s have a more difficult time.

+1 Never seen him play, I'd like to know if he can shoot at a respectable %, if he can't we've already got Booker on the team to fill the energy guy off the bench role.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Interesting prospect on paper. I haven't seen him play; seems worth checking out. But at 6'8", 215 lbs, this guy seems more like a Warrick than a Milsap or Blair. He doesn't give you assists or threes, so I'm guessing he's a pure 4. Short 4s can often overcome their height disadvantage, but short, lightweight 4s have a more difficult time.

I have only seen portion of him playing. From a podcast he did with Jon Givony I have heard him speak. Very inarticulate guy. His game numbers regarding free throws, assists, and three point attempts suggest Faried is a Buck Williams type player.

I believe Faried's terrific energy level will enable him to adapt into a very proficient PF who will score well. His rebounding and defense will enable him to play SF and spot minutes at C. This guy will be better than Warrick at impacting games defensively.

Unlike Cousins Faried won't suffer at the next level. Faried is carrying a team and is often the only guy NCAA coaches are game planning against on his team. He can't be contained by teams with great athletes keying on him. Despite always being on the underdog team and on the road against majors, Faried isn't fouling out. Despite being only months older than Cousins Faried will arrive in the NBA with four years of college ball experience. Like Wesley Matthews and Trevor Booker, Faried is going to be ready physically from day one.

On paper he can be better than Rodman. Just like Love's rebounding and Blair's competitive numbers projected favorably so do Faried's.

[Dat2U]

I need to watch Faried play. Honestly I need to watch a lot of guys play. I'm really behind the 8-ball on prospects thus far. However the best time to watch many of these major prospects is when conference play kicks off. I honestly don't think one gets much out of watching Jared Sullinger bull over future car salesmen & bankers from IUPUI.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

+1 Never seen him play, I'd like to know if he can shoot at a respectable %, if he can't we've already got Booker on the team to fill the energy guy off the bench role.

So far this season his FG percentage is way up as are his steals, while he has remained a monster on the boards. One thing to note is Faried was a prolific scorer in HS.

As far as having another Booker goes, I would love to have Wall, Young, Booker,Faried, and Seraphin/McGee as an athletic fast breaking team. If Faried is even tougher than Booker he will do nothing but help this team.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I need to watch Faried play. Honestly I need to watch a lot of guys play. I'm really behind the 8-ball on prospects thus far. However the best time to watch many of these major prospects is when conference play kicks off. I honestly don't think one gets much out of watching Jared Sullinger bull over future car salesmen & bankers from IUPUI.

Now that I give proper time to learning God's word for my life and to being a better dad I hardly follow NCAA ball. I wouldn't change a thing as life is certainly fuller and more purposeful now.

I have noticed from catching highlights or stats on occasions that Sullinger and Derrick Williams are each scoring extremely proficiently. I love what I see from Jordan Willams. If LA Lakers have a spot for Caracter then Jordan Williams will find a niche in the NBA.

Washington could add either of these guys on the low blocks and improve. Them or Faried.

[The Consiglieri]

I need to watch Faried play. Honestly I need to watch a lot of guys play. I'm really behind the 8-ball on prospects thus far. However the best time to watch many of these major prospects is when conference play kicks off. I honestly don't think one gets much out of watching Jared Sullinger bull over future car salesmen & bankers from IUPUI.

Definitely, right now the Wiz look like a lottery lock on the high end, not the low end as some of us thought and even potentially playoffs as others. I think I posted a ceiling of 37 wins, an expectation of 32, and a floor of 24, but right now, I'd recalibrate it to a ceiling of 34, an expectation of 28, and a floor of 18. It's not looking good.

Guys likely to pick in front of us:

1. Sacramento: Some nice players have only made them worse. Cousins sounds as bad as advertised in the mental department.

2. LA Clips: Worse than Sac, but I can imagine LA turning it around, Sac looks like they blew up on the launch pad w/a bad mix.

3. NJ: Good for them keeping Favors, good for the rest of us on the call that he could be special. Im still shocked that Favors went 3 instead of 2, and even if he's a nut, that Cousins lasted past 4. This team could improve.

4. Minny: Love has been a relevation, the '09 draft is looking more and more like not only did we blow that trade w/them, but they did too w/their stupid picks.

5. Us: I can see us fluctuating as high s 3 in terms of record but no higher. I can see us dropping in slotting to 7 or 8, pre lottery draw. So I think the best case scenario is #1 pick, likely is #4-6, worst case is probably #9-10

6. Detroit: I keep expecting them to blow it up, this could be the year.

7. Cleveland: They've got into a total tailspin since turtling when Lebron came to town.

8. Philly: Once the trade happens they may be better.

9. Charlotte-Mismatched parts, not bad enough to get help, not good enough to matter.

10. Golden State: Still finding their way

How do you guys see the top 10 this early? I guess we have to pray that they avoid a lock out.

nbadraft.net's top 10:

Link: http://www.nbadraft.net/

"1 Sacramento Perry Jones Fr.
2 LA Clippers Kyrie Irving Fr.
3 Minnesota Harrison Barnes Fr.
4 New Jersey Jared Sullinger Fr.
5 Philadelphia Terrence Jones Fr.
6 Washington Derrick Williams So.
7 Detroit Brandon Knight Fr.
8 Charlotte Tyler Honeycutt So.
9 Houston Enes Kanter Fr.
10 Milwaukee Donatas Motiejunas Intl."

draft expresses top 10+1:

1 Kyrie Irving PG
18 years old; 6'2"; 185 lbs.
Duke, Freshman
2 Perry Jones PF
19 years old; 6'11"; 220 lbs.
Baylor, Freshman
3 Harrison Barnes SG/SF
18 years old; 6'8"; 210 lbs.
North Carolina, Freshman
4 Jonas Valanciunas PF/C
18 years old; 6'10"; 230 lbs.
Lietuvos Rytas, International
5 Enes Kanter C
18 years old; 6'9"; 250 lbs.
Kentucky, Freshman
6 Terrence Jones SF/PF
18 years old; 6'8"; 200 lbs.
Kentucky, Freshman
7 Kemba Walker PG
20 years old; 6'0"; 180 lbs.
Connecticut, Junior
8 Jared Sullinger PF
18 years old; 6'8"; 250 lbs.
Ohio State, Freshman
9 Donatas Motiejunas PF/C
20 years old; 7'0"; 215 lbs.
Benetton Treviso, International
10 Mason Plumlee PF
20 years old; 6'11"; 210 lbs.
Duke, Sophomore
11 Jan Vesely SF
20 years old; 6'11"; 240 lbs.
KK Partizan Belgrade, International


From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-dr ... z1819oWvZN
http://www.draftexpress.com


Who do you guys think are the best of these sort, best match up for our needs etc. I'd love to start watching them following the holidays.

[no D in Hibachi]

I was listening to the NBA podcast on ESPN hosted by Ryen Russillo and he was hosting David Thorpe, who I respect as a pretty big draft guru. He mentioned how this years draft projects to be much better than last years. He did say how Wall would go first overall, so you won't find a better prospect in this years compared to last years, but his analysis made me feel a little better about the fact the Wiz will be a high lotto team again.

[Hoopalotta]

Guys likely to pick in front of us:

1. Sacramento: Some nice players have only made them worse. Cousins sounds as bad as advertised in the mental department.

2. LA Clips: Worse than Sac, but I can imagine LA turning it around, Sac looks like they blew up on the launch pad w/a bad mix.

3. NJ: Good for them keeping Favors, good for the rest of us on the call that he could be special. Im still shocked that Favors went 3 instead of 2, and even if he's a nut, that Cousins lasted past 4. This team could improve.

4. Minny: Love has been a relevation, the '09 draft is looking more and more like not only did we blow that trade w/them, but they did too w/their stupid picks.

5. Us: I can see us fluctuating as high s 3 in terms of record but no higher. I can see us dropping in slotting to 7 or 8, pre lottery draw. So I think the best case scenario is #1 pick, likely is #4-6, worst case is probably #9-10

6. Detroit: I keep expecting them to blow it up, this could be the year.

7. Cleveland: They've got into a total tailspin since turtling when Lebron came to town.

8. Philly: Once the trade happens they may be better.

9. Charlotte-Mismatched parts, not bad enough to get help, not good enough to matter.

10. Golden State: Still finding their way

How do you guys see the top 10 this early? I guess we have to pray that they avoid a lock out.

Detroit effectively doesn't have an owner and thus can't really make any trades. Also, Dumars philosophy will not allow him to blow it up, so they'd have to fire him and that is unlikely before the ownership thing in a classic Catch-22. I bet they finish somewhere around the 8th or 9th worst.

Cleveland will almost surely purge all the vets they can and go into the tank with how things are going now.

Prokhorov of the Nyets seems rather impulsive and has stated that he wants into the playoffs this year, so they well might make a win-now move. Their GM, Billy King, probably regrets not having enough overpaid guys around as well. And Avery Johnson sounds to have some influence there too and he's hardly a tanker (I believe he was the one who wanted Outlaw). Ideally, they will make a bad trade, surge ahead and finish somewhere out of the playoffs.

Golden State is looking to have some pretty bad mojo right now and they also have 52 games against those Western teams, so I could see them jockeying in there for a top pick. On the other hand, they did just get some reserve bigs back, so maybe they'll improve. But if they don't trend towards W's soon, they might really spiral.

Philly would be 10-13 if they hadn't dumped those two games to us and they actually have a positive scoring differential, so I think they'll finish well ahead of the proper rabble.

I think you'd have us, Cleveland, the Clips, Sac-Town and Minny as the real vat-bottom, sump-swimming weevil-eaters. I cannot read the goat entrails much tighter than that, but if scoring differential is indeed the penultimate in augury as the ancient seers say, we're looking good - erm, bad - unless we were to *gasp*, get healthy. But I'd still see this team healthy as having a late lottery ceiling; being right at the bottom in defensive rebounding and opponents FG% at the rim is basically hard coded into our roster and has very little to do with health.

[closg00]

We're in the hunt for that #1 pick again fellas

[fugop]

All these athletes at SF really annoy me. They are all crap shoots, hard to discount, yet hard to bite on.

[Ruzious]

Our pick takes a bit of a hit as Kanter's father's saying his kid is determined to play for Kentucky next season. Then again, the NCAA might not concur with pops Kanter.

Terrence Jones not looking good against Winthrop today. Irving's injured. Otoh, Sullinger has improved his stock lately. By the end of the season, I'm guessing Harrison Barnes will show why he was the highest rated player in the class and will be the #1 pick, and Perry Jones will do just enough to go 2nd.

[fishercob]

Remember all that chatter about the 2009 draft being weak? Turns out the experts were right -- after Blake Griffin there's not a superstar in the bunch. Steph Curry is probably the second best player, but he's a full tier or two down from Griffin. Evans is decent, but appears to be very limited by being a headcase and a chucker. Harden's a role player. Brandon Jennings is pretty good I suppose. Jury is waay out on Rubio...

Thabeet, FLynn, Jordan Hill, Derozan, Terence Willaims, Henderson, Earl Clark, James, Johnson, Teague, BJ Mullens....blech

[Ed Wood]

My assertion that Jordan Hill wasn't that bad a pick approaches sensibility, granted through the back door.

Two guys I've mentioned and who I remain interested in, though not as targets for the high lottery pick the team is rocketing towards at 85 points per game, played very well today. I didn't get a chance to see Klay Thompson lead Washington State to a win over Baylor but it looked like vintage Thompson, a lot of threes, an efficient scoring night, a solid number of rebounds and a confusing number of steals. Thompson is lighting it up this year, and for a guy who is kinda thought of as a one-dimensional scorer he's averaging over 5.5 rebounds and assists per 40, and 2.8 steals and .8 blocks. Dude is putting up a PER of 39.6 this year, and he's projected as the thirteenth pick of the second round. Just saying.

Jan Vesely was also just about the only guy on Partisan Belgrade who showed up for a Euroleague game that I actually did see some of today. James Gist was actually the other guy on the team who didn't suck, but Vesely had a really nice game that probably should have been better. He scored 17 points and should have had more but for a combination of his willingness to defer and the team's self-destructive determination to allow Nathan Jawai to miss all of the layups.

Ves shot very well from the outside and played a very good defensive game. His man mostly just took the game off, and he provided some help defense but less than he should be capable of. The couple of times he got out in transition he was fouled pretty much immediately to prevent him from dunking it really hard. He didn't put the ball on the floor really at all, however, which reinforces the impression for me that he's probably a power forward with range long term. He looks like he could be a really solid role player.

[Hoopalotta]

Remember all that chatter about the 2009 draft being weak? Turns out the experts were right -- after Blake Griffin there's not a superstar in the bunch. Steph Curry is probably the second best player, but he's a full tier or two down from Griffin. Evans is decent, but appears to be very limited by being a headcase and a chucker. Harden's a role player. Brandon Jennings is pretty good I suppose. Jury is waay out on Rubio...

Thabeet, FLynn, Jordan Hill, Derozan, Terence Willaims, Henderson, Earl Clark, James, Johnson, Teague, BJ Mullens....blech

Jrue Holiday is probably a top 5 player out of that lot and Ty Lawson might be Ok, but yeah, it basically stunk. Lot's of backup or rotation point guards.

This last year's draft isn't off to a great start either - I saw in the David Thorpe chat that he was asked "why?" and he went with "Lack of talent?" as the answer. Ouch. It's obviously early, but very poor results thus far, though I will say our guys are looking good and Seraphin could end up being a top 10 talent from this class.

I hope you're correct that this next year's draft being the last one covered by the current CBA with known salary parameters pushes more guys out the door, but I'm starting to get a bit spooked.

A) Kanter sounds like he's staying
B) Valanciunas is so young that most Euro's his age don't come over
C) Barnes is struggling and might not have the comfort level to leave
D) Irving busted his toe and Duke is not known for one and doners

Probably not all those guys stay out, but if two of them do, it would be a sharp hit that would really be felt in the 6-8 range. Ideally some of that would be offset by some breakouts, but count me as nervous.

[go'stags]

In the spirit of the boards, I just want to say that I was Jrue Hollidays biggest fan that year.

As for this year, I'd have to agree so far. I have'nt seen a lot of ball, but when I have not many players have really stood out. However, last night I watched the Baylor-Wash Stat game to see Perry Jones, and actually came away impressed and somewhat surprised.

I had somehow gotten the impression that he was a low-IQ gunner with a questionable attitude. But last night he was hardly given the ball, and Baylor had fits trying to crack the WashSt zone. That did not stop him from crashing the offensive glass, though, and he still gave good effort on defense. And from what little oppurtunity he had to display it, he flashed some decent IQ. Had some nice passes and good finihes off of offensive rebounds. He wasn't very assertive, but that might be exspected from a freshman. Not everyone is John Wall.

Theres been talk of him playing PF in the league. After watching him play, I'm still not sure where he should play. If he measures out big enough, I would want him at PF. However, even if he isnt I think he is athletic enough to play SF. I could definitley see him being the best player available when we pick, regardless of position. Espescially in this draft..

[closg00]

Jared Sullinger prospect of the week.

Sullinger is clearly not a finished product at age 18. He looks much more ready to step in and play from day one, though, which has to be deemed attractive for the worst teams in the NBA that will be picking first in the draft.

Read the dreamy profile, sounds like you could plug Sullinger right in at PF. Send Seraphin to France to play for a few years.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/NBA ... nger-3595/

[Ruzious]

Right now, Sullinger seems to be the only sure-fire quality big in the draft. He could actually end up going 1st. I was surprised to see how much better shape he is in now vs the videos of him from HS all-star and AAU games.

Speaking of Singletons and much better shape, did anyone catch the Baylor/FSU game? Chris Singleton totally over-shadowed Perry Jones. Singleton is definitely a top 15 pick. Last year - while he was obviously a talented defender in the Aminu mold, he was a disaster on offense - horrible shot selection and seemed to think he was a shooting guard. And I love how draftexpress.com lists him at 6'8 210. That might have been his size last year, but I'd guess he's 6'9.5 and over 230 in tremendous shape. He's bigger than Aminu and just as good defensively - maybe better, because he can defend any size forward there is. And you can tell he spent the summer working on his catch and shoot jump shot. He still makes poor decisions off the dribble, but he looks so much more disciplined on offense. He'll likely be just an ok offensive player, but this guy has the ability to be on All-Defensive teams in the NBA. Great athlete, great length, excellent strength (he's eclipsed Aminu there) - geat defender.

[Dat2U]

Remember all that chatter about the 2009 draft being weak? Turns out the experts were right -- after Blake Griffin there's not a superstar in the bunch. Steph Curry is probably the second best player, but he's a full tier or two down from Griffin. Evans is decent, but appears to be very limited by being a headcase and a chucker. Harden's a role player. Brandon Jennings is pretty good I suppose. Jury is waay out on Rubio...

Thabeet, FLynn, Jordan Hill, Derozan, Terence Willaims, Henderson, Earl Clark, James, Johnson, Teague, BJ Mullens....blech

Easily my best draft in terms of rating prospects. Remember the Harden vs. Curry debates. I remember arguing over the athleticism of both players and screaming how much Harden looked like a 4th or 5th option to me. Doc, CCJ and a few others knew Curry was the real deal all along. DCZards was on the Tyreke bandwagon before everyone else and I quickly jumped on shortly thereafter.

I had Griffin, Rubio, Evans & Curry as my top 4 on draft night. Of course no one knows how Rubio will turn out. I also had Lawson & Blair as top 10 picks. I hated Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Terrence Williams and said B.J. Mullens was bust waiting to happen. DeRozan has disappointed me a little bit. I missed on Jennings & Holiday. I honestly didn't see enough of both to really feel confident about either.

go'stags really nailed the Holiday pick. I remember arguing with him about that and he swore up and down Holiday was going to be a steal when i had serious doubts. I also remember Severn Hoos constantly preaching to us about the talents of Darren Collison and how he'd be great value with a later 1st round pick.

We've got some great talent evaluators on this board.

[Ruzious]

I was definitely not on the Curry bandwagon. D'oh!

In the end though - let's see who of these guys are winners in the NBA.