Rumor: Brewers Acquire Zack Greinke(update done deal)

[Bleedin' blue]

Report: Brewers Acquire Zack Greinke
By Jim Breen
Dec. 18, 2010 9:39 p.m. |(14) COMMENTS

**Disclaimer: This is a rumor that has not yet been confirmed from within the organization, but I feel comfortable enough with the information and the source to publish this rumor. Please just keep in mind that this is only a rumor and should be treated as such until further notice.**

A source informed me earlier today that the Milwaukee Brewers have come to a preliminary agreement with the Kansas City Royals for a deal that would send pitcher Zack Greinke to Milwaukee.

The rumored agreement would send shortstop Alcides Escobar, center fielder Lorenzo Cain, and right-hander Jeremy Jeffress to Kansas City in return for Greinke, shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and approximately $2M.

The extra $2M is to offset a portion of the $31M that would come to Milwaukee in the trade. Coincidentally, Betancourt's buyout for the 2012 season is $2M -- so that number could make a good deal of sense, if the Brewers have no intention of keeping the shortstop.

I had been told that the Milwaukee Brewers were originally informed that they had "no chance" of landing Greinke during the Winter Meetings, but that could have changed significantly once Greinke went public with his demands to leave the Royals.

The deal is expected to be announced on Monday.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/fa ... 37964.html

[Wavy Q]

Why would the Brewers deal for him? If they gave up prospects it definitely wasn't worth it. Greinke doesn't make them an immediate contender.

[nyckid414]

Jay from LA... Really?

If they land Grenkie with Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf and who ever the 5 is... with the bats in their lineup they easily are a contender. The pen is very good too. They are going for it.

[DorsiaRes]

Props to Doug Melvin if this is happening, it also looks like they will be adding Betancourt in the deal. Considering the NL Central isn't the strongest division the Brewers look like they could be contenders seeing as they have one of the more potent batting lineups in the NL and what looks to be the most improved starting rotations (sans the phillies) of the off season.

If they could land a solid infielder like Orlando Cabrera or Edgar Reintaria this is a vastly improved team from last season. Watch out.

[Bleedin' blue]

Looks like there are mutiple reports that this trade is done...

Truthfully its the best place for a headcase.

[Rafael122]

Grienke seems to be one of those guys who will enjoy the mid-west, and doesn't want to have any association with the East or West coast. Less pressure I guess. Do not be surprised if his social anxiety played a part in this.

[jimmybones]

Why would the Brewers deal for him? If they gave up prospects it definitely wasn't worth it. Greinke doesn't make them an immediate contender.

Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf plus a great offense is not a contender?

[sunshinekids99]

The Brewers have a hell of a staff and some hitting. I'd say they are an upgrade on paper over the Giants of last season.

[nyckid414]

Why would the Brewers deal for him? If they gave up prospects it definitely wasn't worth it. Greinke doesn't make them an immediate contender.

Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf plus a great offense is not a contender?

You really must not know too much about baseball with a comment like that.

[nyckid414]

Looks like there are mutiple reports that this trade is done...

Truthfully its the best place for a headcase.

Headache...? People really blow things out of proportion. Pitching in the bigs is pressure who ever you play for.

[Wavy Q]

I don't think they're better than the Cardinals or Reds in the NL Central.

instead of insulting my baseball intelligence, how about agreeing to disagree?

EDIT: Actually they're probably better than the Reds

[trwi7]

The Cardinals aren't very good. The Brewers rotation stacks up with theirs now and our offense is far better.

[CentralQB5]

Why would the Brewers deal for him? If they gave up prospects it definitely wasn't worth it. Greinke doesn't make them an immediate contender.

i couldnt agree more

[shaolin34]

Why would the Brewers deal for him? If they gave up prospects it definitely wasn't worth it. Greinke doesn't make them an immediate contender.

i couldnt agree more

Over the last two years, the Brewers have had a potent offense with the same core (Braun-Fielder-Hart-Weeks-McGhee). In 2009 they were 3rd in the NL with 785 runs scored, and last year they were 4th with 750. It stands to reason that with their core returning, they should be up there again this year.

The problem was by far their pitching. In 2009 they gave up 818 runs (2nd last in the NL) and last year 804 (3rd last). The bullpen actually started to pitch pretty well the 2nd half of last year, and will hopefully keep that going. By adding Greinke and Marcum they push pitchers like Parra and Narverson out of the rotation, which is a good, good thing. I'm not going to guarantee playoffs or anything, but over .500 and fighting for a playoff spot is realistic.

[bigboy1234]

The Cardinals aren't very good. The Brewers rotation stacks up with theirs now and our offense is far better.

Let's look at the ZiPS projections of OPS+ and ERA+.

C.....89.....90
1B...148...169
2B...111....88
3B...103....95
SS....83....76
LF...133...131
CF....84...110
RF...114...122

SP...129...140
SP...117...120
SP...115...113
SP...100....97
SP....86....86

How exactly is the Brewers offense "far better" again?

If the Cardinals "aren't very good" I'm not sure why the Brewers just traded their young players to be on the same tier as them then, kind of weird, no? That being said I liked both deals for the Brewers that they made as I think those certain young players were being kind of overrated and Marcum is underrated for being a "soft-tosser."


*Split Lucroy/Kottaras projection
**Split McGee/Gamel projection
***Split Dickerson/Gomez projection
****Narveson the projected #5?
*****The ERA+ of both Marcum and Greinke would probably go up a few points switching to the NL Central.

[trwi7]

Zips projections are crap. Just look at the 2010 projections for the Brewers.

Fielder projected for 145 OPS+, actual was 137
Weeks projected for 103 OPS+, actual was 125
McGehee projected for 98 OPS+, actual was 116
Hart projected for 104 OPS+, actual was 132
Edmonds projected for 98 OPS+, actual was 127
Cain projected for 62 OPS+, actual was 107

Davis projected for 101 ERA+, actual was 53
Hoffman projected for 142 ERA+, actual was 67
Axford projected for 86 ERA+, actual was 160
Braddock projected for 106 ERA+, actual was 136

Fact is, these projections know dick, both good and bad.

Here are the facts. The Brewers finished nine games behind the Cardinals last year.

The Cardinals have added Lance Berkman to replace Ryan Ludwick and Jon Jay. The Brewers have added Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke to replace Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, Doug Davis and Marco Estrada. What's the bigger upgrade?

[bigboy1234]

Let's see the trwi projections, I'm sure they are much better. No doubt you were calling for a 132 OPS+ from Hart after the previous two seasons of 99 OPS+

The Cards had Ludwick for half a season and still have Jay...not exactly replacing them.

Fielder projected for 145 OPS+, actual was 137

Holy crap, what a crappy example!

Of course Marcum+Greinke is a bigger upgrade than just Berkman, who is arguing that? Did you just forget about the 9 games you said a sentence back, they better have upgraded a lot more to be on the same tier as that not very good St. Louis team. And like the projections show they are very similar teams.

[trwi7]

Did you just forget about the 9 games you said a sentence back, they better have upgraded a lot more to be on the same tier as that not very good St. Louis team.

Umm, let's see. Suppan, Estrada, Davis, Vargas and Hoffman provided a combined -1 WAR last year. All of them are gone. They were replaced with Marcum 3.5 WAR in the AL East and Greinke 5.2 WAR in the AL.

The relievers were replaced by younger, more talented players. Can that not make up for it?

Braun had one of his worst seasons. Is it insane if he goes back to being a .900 OPS player?

Is it insane to think Fielder can go back to being a 5-5.5 WAR player?

Is it insane to think that a Dickerson/Gomez platoon could produce a .259/.311/.396 line which they got from CF last year with great defense?

Is it insane to think that a bullpen of Axford/Parra/McClendon/Hawkins/Braddock/Loe/whoever be a better bullpen than last year?

I'll be the first to admit that Betancourt is a downgrade from Escobar last year (which is why I hope we pick up another SS or Counsell gets the majority of the starts) and that Hart isn't likely to have as good of a year as he did last year.

However, the Brewers were kept down last year by starting pitching that not only wasn't very good, but also starting pitching that couldn't pitch deep into the game.

Just look at what we had in the #5 spot last year.

38 starts, 188.2 innings (4.97 innings per start), 5.92 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9 and a 4.93 FIP.

This year the 5 spot is likely going to Chris Narveson who pitched 157.2 innings as a starter last year (5.63 innings per start), 4.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 1.14 HR/9 and a 4.18 FIP.

Marcum averaged 6.3 innings per start in the AL East. Greinke has averaged 6.64 innings per start the past three years. Not only are both players talented, but they also eat innings which should help our bullpen with Gallardo hopefully taking a step forward in the innings department.

[bigboy1234]

All your back to things are funny because that is what projections are for....

Is it insane that Skip doesn't suck this year, is it insane to have Freese back, is it insane for Albert to go back to 2008-2009 version again?

Umm, let's see. Suppan, Estrada, Davis, Vargas and Hoffman provided a combined -1 WAR last year. All of them are gone. They were replaced with Marcum 3.5 WAR in the AL East and Greinke 5.2 WAR in the AL.

My god, thats like 10 WAR, which with the 9 game advantage the Cards had plus the Berkman upgrade makes them similar teams! Who would have thought? But the Cardinals just aren't that good, so I'm just not sure why the Brewers are making these moves if they are on the same tier as a not that good team.

[trwi7]

Okay, so maybe not very good wasn't the right choice of words. I think they are on par with the Cardinals and Reds though which is basically how the whole argument got started by Jay from LA saying they weren't contenders even with Greinke.

And just so we can find some common ground, at least we're not the Cubs. Amirite?

Edit: Although you could probably give the Reds and Cardinals the edge based on interleague schedules.