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Damien Cox article.

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Post#21 » by juucer » Wed Jun 27, 2007 12:37 pm

Crowned wrote:To continue with my point about Kulemin..

Kulemin's stats:

2006- 27 goals, 12 assists, 39 points, 42 PIM

Ovechkin's stats while in Russia (his best season totals)

2004- 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points, 32 PIM

Ilya Kovalchuk's stats while in Russia (his best season totals, he was already a top NHL player)

2004- 19 goals, 22 assists, 41 points, 70 PIM

Alexander Mogilny's stats while in Russia (his best season totals)

1988- 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, 24 PIM



...yet Kulemin isn't considered a 'top prospect'? His stats indicate that he is, and the intangibles do as well. He may have weaknesses in his game, but how many prospects don't? I strongly believe he is the organizations top prospect right now.


Was Kulemin playing at the same tier of hockey as those other mentioned players?? I know the Russian Hockey Federation is somewhat confusing... Elite League A, B, etc etc.
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Post#22 » by juucer » Wed Jun 27, 2007 1:04 pm

By the way, Crowned...

I completely agree with your post on the state of the Leafs and the misconception about the deals JFJ has made.

No, he's not the greatest GM and has made some moves that have failed... but he's taken some risks and if they pan out, he looks like a genius. There was a good chance that Raycroft could regain his Calder winning season in a new environment, and there still is a chance that Rask will never see the ice in the NHL as a starting goalie. If this happens, that move looks fantastic.

He gave up the 13th pick in one of the weakest drafts in years... who expected Cherapanov/Esposito to still be available?

Just to get an indication of the "calibre" of player you can expect with a 13th overall pick, here's the #13 Overall picks during the 10 years of 1996-2005:

1996 - Derek Morris
1997 - Daniel Cleary
1998 - Michael Henrich
1999 - Jani Rita
2000 - Alexei Smirnov
2001 - Ales Hemsky
2002 - Alexander Semin
2003 - Dustin Brown
2004 - Drew Stafford
2005 - Marek Zagrapan


Yes, Ales Hemsky was a great pick but as you can see, there is a very good chance that the pick ends up being useless. And this year's draft is arguably the weakest out of all those. My point is that if you can guarantee you are getting a high calibre goalie out of the use of this pick, it's not a bad decision to go with the sure thing rather than take a gamble on a youngster who may never pan out, which is what JFJ did.
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Post#23 » by kelso » Wed Jun 27, 2007 2:04 pm

Agreed, and we get Mark Bell who will contribute and IMO will surprise everyone.
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Post#24 » by whysoserious » Thu Jun 28, 2007 3:41 am

My biggest problem with the Leafs is even adding Toskala doesn't make them a contending team so why make that move? It's a move designed to get them to playoffs. That should not be the goal, to simply make the playoffs and hope for the best. This is the way the Leafs operate.

If you look at most of the teams to are elite teams, their top players, and usually they have a few are usually drafted by the team and developed. You have Ottawa with Spezza, Alfredsson, Redden and if you want to include Heatley since they traded Havlat for him. Most of our prospects are guys that are considered second tier style prospects. Where's that guy that's going to come in and be the next star for this organization.

Teams like Detroit may have gotten lucky with Zetterberg and Datsyuk, but they did their homework during the Yzerman era and now don't have to go into full rebuild.

This team has not one single elite level prospect. If you were to go around the league, a lot more teams have better prospects than us, the ones that don't are at the bottom and are in rebuild and we're just muddline along in the middle. Not good enough to be a title team and not bad enough to get the type of prospects we need to move forward.

We're still hanging on hope of Antropov, Ponikarovsky at best is a second liner. We wasted Sundin's career by not surrounding him with the right player's.

We're probably at some point going to get our cap in order, only to overpay for a guy like Smyth who neither puts us over the top, but just simply gets us to the playoffs.

I'm sorry, but after 40 year's of ineptitude and not truly building a championship caliber team at any point in those 40 years, I've given up until I see a true effort from manangement to ice the best team in the NHL, which should be the goal of MLSE every year.
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Post#25 » by Crowned » Thu Jun 28, 2007 3:44 am

juucer wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Was Kulemin playing at the same tier of hockey as those other mentioned players?? I know the Russian Hockey Federation is somewhat confusing... Elite League A, B, etc etc.



Yup, it's the Russian Super League. They play against teams like Dynamo Moscow (Ovechkin played there), CSKA Moscow (Mogilny's old team) and Kazan Bars (Kovalchuk played there).

I've been watching several videos and footage of Kulemin, and he looks like a very good player. If his game can translate into the NHL, we're looking at something special.
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Post#26 » by Crowned » Thu Jun 28, 2007 3:50 am

juucer wrote:By the way, Crowned...

I completely agree with your post on the state of the Leafs and the misconception about the deals JFJ has made.

No, he's not the greatest GM and has made some moves that have failed... but he's taken some risks and if they pan out, he looks like a genius. There was a good chance that Raycroft could regain his Calder winning season in a new environment, and there still is a chance that Rask will never see the ice in the NHL as a starting goalie. If this happens, that move looks fantastic.

He gave up the 13th pick in one of the weakest drafts in years... who expected Cherapanov/Esposito to still be available?

Just to get an indication of the "calibre" of player you can expect with a 13th overall pick, here's the #13 Overall picks during the 10 years of 1996-2005:

1996 - Derek Morris
1997 - Daniel Cleary
1998 - Michael Henrich
1999 - Jani Rita
2000 - Alexei Smirnov
2001 - Ales Hemsky
2002 - Alexander Semin
2003 - Dustin Brown
2004 - Drew Stafford
2005 - Marek Zagrapan


Yes, Ales Hemsky was a great pick but as you can see, there is a very good chance that the pick ends up being useless. And this year's draft is arguably the weakest out of all those. My point is that if you can guarantee you are getting a high calibre goalie out of the use of this pick, it's not a bad decision to go with the sure thing rather than take a gamble on a youngster who may never pan out, which is what JFJ did.



I agree, other than Semin and Hemsky, you've got a bunch of role players on that list. When you have a chance to improve your starting goaltending position (the most important position in hockey) you do it. Sacraficing a #13 overall pick in an extremely questionable draft is well worth the upgrade. You don't win games with marginal goaltending, ask the Vancouver Canucks. They had built a solid contender, but always struggled with goaltending with Cloutier and Auld. They 'lose' one of their best players in Bertuzzi, gain a good goaltender, and had a fantastic season. Goaltenders greatly improve a team, both on the ice and off. If a team has confidence in their netminder, their play improves on the ice. They're more willing to take chances on the ice, and aren't worried about the outcome. If Toskala doesn't pan out in a Leaf jersey, but Raycroft steps up his play and becomes the goaltender he's capable of...then it's well worth it.
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Post#27 » by whysoserious » Thu Jun 28, 2007 3:51 am

youreachiteach wrote:
BlueJay_ wrote:Good GM's just dont trade high picks to fills holes and at the end of the day say well we improved so its a good deal automatically. Lots of teams are in need of defencemen or forwards, but you dont see GM's hurrying to throw away picks just to get some short term fix in that area.

--Goalies are more important than forwards....newsflash.

You first said Esposito fell because hes said to be the next Daigle and then you went onto say Cherapanov fell for the same reason which was totally wrong.

--No, you interpreted that. I meant they both fell for a reason. The fact their reasons are different has no relevance to my argument,

Not a hocknews fanboy whatsoever, but these people do this stuff for a living and have a MUCH better idea of a prospect and there current level and potential then YOU do. Again Ill take there projections and ratings anyday over some bias Leafs/Justin Pogge/jfj fanboy.

--Whatever, believe what you want. We'll see.

so Kaberle/Kubina can move the puck, neither is exceptional in there own end when the other team has control of the puck. Anaheim is built with defencemen who are very good at taking care of the puck, using the body well and not caughing the puck and you cant say the same about the Leafs D as a whole. The Ducks strenght on the blueline is being able to play without the puck and take care of it when you have it and these traits arent very evident in the current leafs core.

--the leafs allowed one of the fewest amounts of shots in the league. if that soesn't amount to solid defensive play, i don't know what is. The leafs use the body just fine.

Thats great Kulemin has Grit, he still isnt a great prospect like your trying to call him.

--That's not what the Russian elite league is saying

"Lars Eller wasn't considered by many on the boards I visited to be an outstanding prospect"

well no one that was ranked at #13 going into the draft was considered a outstanding prospect (not Hamill, or Sutter, Couture) but the kid can still put the puck in the net and you claimed that there wasnt anyone available in that range that could.
--no I claimed he wasn't outstanding. Who knows how he will do? It is you who are ju,mping to conclusions to support your argument. Bottom line, he's not elite, and you are arguing we lost out big time athat position.

Ottawa has No grit? Phillips, Volchenkov, Fisher, Neil, Schubert, Kelly. They dont have as much as the Ducks do (which hardly any team does) but to say they have no overall grit is wrong. Buffalo has fewer scorers then Ottawa? Briere, Vanek, Drury, Afinoganov, Pominville. They might not have the top 3 heavy scoring that Ottawa does, but they certainly have more scorers and depth at scoring the the Sens. Yep Ottawa pretty much pushed around Pitts, NJ and Buffalo on there way to the finals.

--Pittsburgh, no toughness anyway.
Buffalo, tough but very small and not much legitimate goal scoring talent. Yes, they have the speed, which is exactly what I said. Just like Ottawa but without the snipers. By the way, Briere is opting out. I wonder why. They are more like insect pests than "gritty".
New Jersey sucked most of the year and has NO ofensive talent and plays the same trap (and is also small as h*ll). Yippee, Ottawa was the best of the trap teams. Look how tough they were. Please. And Phillips is as soft as downy, and the others are goons, not GRIT. The only player i'd want is Fisher. The rest are goons with little talent (outside of Phillips and Fisher).

He deserved a raise? then how come his own GM Jay Feaster was only offering him 3 million a season and this is from the guy who knows his game best. Sure his deal might look a little more financially acceptable, but its still overkill to have your #3 defencemen whos main strenghts lie on the powerplay where he wont get any time on this team making 5 million $

--I don't know what is overkill. I thought we had a bad defence and needed help in this area? Or are you admitting we have a good defence. I'm not sure what you are saying here. Yeah, the Lightning, cheapskates that they are, sent him packing. And...guess where they are now? Oh yeah, no where to be seen defensively..

How are you using Mucker as a example? He took his team to the finals. If your going be this logic that because his team didnt win the cup, then why does Darcy Regier still have a job? Muckler was fired because he and Murray didnt see eye to eye and even Melnyk had his beefs with a few of the moves Muckler made last season.

--my point was, knucklehead, that success or failure doesn't really decide whether a GM gets fired...his relationship with the owners does. But thanks for explaining my point more clearly for me though.

I found this funny..

"I'm talking about a defence first plan, and you're talking a Los Angeles Clippers overhaul strategy. Thanks, but no thanks. The Leafs have some pieces. Next year they can trade Sundin for some value picks after the playoffs are done. Or, he can retire and they can focus on a hockey team, not draft central. It's not the only way to succeed"

Since when does valueing your future (like even the best teams do) equal being the equilvalent on the Los Angelas clippers. Where did I advocate the Leafs tanking and aiming for a top overall pick. The Stanley Cup champions traded Shane O Brien last season for a first round draft pick because they were looking towards the future. SJ traded away a valuable backup goalie because they were looking towards the future. Since when does my displeasure with the Leafs continually giving up picks have to do with having some sort of obsession with being bad (Clippers).

--Do you know how long Ottawa tanked and sucked before they were credible contenders (they still aren't)? The old Nordiques/Avalanche? Pittsburgh? Look, it's all well and good to sit back and try to acquire assets, but it's not the only way to manage a team. And frankly, given the rate assets turn out into actual players, it's not that great a strategy. We get it, The GM should blow it all up and wait for 4 or 5 years for the next Gretzky. Good luck with that. Perhaps your strategy works eventually or maybe it doesn't, but more often than not, your team ends up a collection of whiny me first debutantes that rarely win the big one--unless they have...drum roll...great goaltending. I'll take a toskala over some average goal scorer from junior and a guy I can't sign and a alex daigle clone. But that's just me.

While the Leafs miss the playoffs and trade away picks teams like Anaheim, SJ, Ott seem to be very successfull and add young draft picks to there system at the same time. Why cant the Leafs be like that? Looks like some GM's have accustomned themselves alot bettter with how to be successfull in the new cap world then others.


--Now Anaheim gets included, huh? They ACQUIRED the pieces that won. Neidermeyer and Pronger and the goalie won them the cup (That and the fact Ottawa is immune to hitting anything or taking a hit without cheapshotting or taking a penalty (Neil/Volchenkov) or simply firing the puck at defenseless players. Yeah, a real tough bunch, those Senators. And he HAS been acquiring talent at the same time...read what I wrote. You just don't happen to like them. What do YOU know?

About the cap...

You don't get it, do you? The whole cap system was set up for poor woe is me franchises to cry and get transfer payments from rich, established teams like the Leafs. They sucked already, all they had to do was wait for the picks and use the leaf's money to improve.

The new system was set up to screw the Leafs and how they operated. When jfj came on board, it was the year before the lockout and the team had the horses to go for it, which most people thought the Buds had a shot at.


After the lockout, they were strapped for cash, which was the whole point of the new system. JFJ took the hit, accepted it, and proceeded to get screwed by a dilapidated Belfour who hadn't recovered from the break.

He uses the following year to draft some nice young talent (Kulemin, Tlusty..)

The guy sees we need goaltending the previous year, and takes a risk on a fairly young goalie who had promise. It doesn't work out so he trades for the sure thing, which costs more, but will bring an end to this key issue. The leafs are not as bad as you are implying they are. They are not as bereft of talent as you are implyiing either. We just signed Anton Strallman, who was conisdered one of the best offensive defenceman in Sweden right now.

Summary

In the end, the one with the best goalie and defence wins out in hockey. Speed and a trap coach also seem in vogue. Bottom line: The Leafs will surprise this year, and it will be because of JFJ's dogged determination to find the right goalie and D--and not just sit back and try to stockpile slightly better than average prospects for the sake of some vague "future plan"


That part is just rediculous. JFJ was given every opportunity to buyout the guys needed to bring the cap in line and move forward. He chose to bring back the same team and is continually compounding it by overpaying for guys like Kubina and McCabe. Why are teams that operated like us prior to the cap adjusting and we still haven't figured it out.

The Leafs are what they are, a business designed to make money. That's as simple as it is. They don't 'have' to win as Howard Berger posed the question to Peddie today. And people continue to defend this team and management and overrate our prospects and underming what other teams are doing.

Even during the late 90's and early this decade when the Leafs were making their run's, they were never considered the best team in the league. They were considered a team that was good, had a chance to come out of the East but weren't considred favourites to win. Not that being considered a favourite is the be all and guarantees success, but when will the time come when we are considered the favourites. That's what we should be aiming for.

I will give JFJ props, he's done a better job drafting and picking up some prospects through signings, but we still don't have that one guy that will carry us. Instead, we're probably looking at signing someone next off-season to replace Mats or making a trade this season but we'll probably get a guy that we'll overpay and hamstring ourselves again.
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Post#28 » by Crowned » Thu Jun 28, 2007 4:11 am

I'll create a Leaf prospect thread sometime this weekend (with stats, videos, etc) but I'll leave these two videos of him in the meantime..

Video 1:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=N6EnPMw1YsI ...follow #14.

... he breaks away for the 1 on 1 rush, and get's the shot off, check the speed on that rush. Now, instead of giving up on the play, he circles back into the opposing zone. He goes into the corner and completely lays out the defenseman WITH THE PUCK, then hits another player seconds later. He then rotates into the middle, skates to the net in traffic and get's a shot off. After the shot, he circles the net and hits another player. So in a 30 second shift, he hits 3 players hard, has a 1 on 1 break, and goes to the net creating another shot.



http://youtube.com/watch?v=kJDaFaIwXGA& ... ed&search= ....enough said with this clip


...finally an entire tribute video directed towards Kulemin.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=7eIRcFeD2F4& ... ed&search=
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Post#29 » by jalenrose#5 » Thu Jun 28, 2007 6:33 am

After watching those videos, he reminds me of a more physical Pavel Datsyuk. He's got great hands, speed and awareness out there....and by the looks of it, he loves to hit. He should be a very interesting prospect for the Leafs.....I'd give him a year @ Ricoh first though.
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Post#30 » by kelso » Thu Jun 28, 2007 11:25 am

http://youtube.com/watch?v=kJDaFaIwXGA& ... ed&search=

Check out this hit- he just lays this poor guy out big time.
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Post#31 » by Crowned » Thu Jun 28, 2007 5:19 pm

I've read some scouting reports that have said one knock on Kulemin is his overall speed. I think that's absolutely hilarious.
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Post#32 » by youreachiteach » Fri Jun 29, 2007 7:52 am

vc_dunkchamp wrote:My biggest problem with the Leafs is even adding Toskala doesn't make them a contending team so why make that move? It's a move designed to get them to playoffs. That should not be the goal, to simply make the playoffs and hope for the best. This is the way the Leafs operate.

If you look at most of the teams to are elite teams, their top players, and usually they have a few are usually drafted by the team and developed. You have Ottawa with Spezza, Alfredsson, Redden and if you want to include Heatley since they traded Havlat for him. Most of our prospects are guys that are considered second tier style prospects. Where's that guy that's going to come in and be the next star for this organization.

Teams like Detroit may have gotten lucky with Zetterberg and Datsyuk, but they did their homework during the Yzerman era and now don't have to go into full rebuild.

This team has not one single elite level prospect. If you were to go around the league, a lot more teams have better prospects than us, the ones that don't are at the bottom and are in rebuild and we're just muddline along in the middle. Not good enough to be a title team and not bad enough to get the type of prospects we need to move forward.

We're still hanging on hope of Antropov, Ponikarovsky at best is a second liner. We wasted Sundin's career by not surrounding him with the right player's.

We're probably at some point going to get our cap in order, only to overpay for a guy like Smyth who neither puts us over the top, but just simply gets us to the playoffs.

I'm sorry, but after 40 year's of ineptitude and not truly building a championship caliber team at any point in those 40 years, I've given up until I see a true effort from manangement to ice the best team in the NHL, which should be the goal of MLSE every year.



Cry me a river. Boston waited 100 years for thier title.

Look, I can appreciate you want a title, every fan of the Leafs does. I think you are calling hindsight is 20/20 a bit here on how much "time" the Leafs had to get under the cap.

The reason why so many other teams "figured out" the new way to spend money was BECAUSE MOST OF THEM WERE POOR OR BAD TO BEGIN WITH when it started up again! Thus, the cheap buggers held on to their chips and "turned it around quickly". While the seats are still half empty.

There was a reason there was a strike, remember? Sure, the Rangers, who were built like us, struggled for a while and kept their picks (because they sucked too at the right time--and so did Detroit).

The Leafs were just good enough at the time he could have jettisoned contracts back then to go for it. It's easy to blame him now when there weren't as many established goalie prospects at that time as there are now that developed in a short turnover. He needed Belfour for the simple fact of some stability at the most important position. Besides, a lot of 40 year old goalies have done pretty well recently (hint: Hasek).

He did take the hit by making some low cost high reward signings with Lindros and Allison. Injuries and poorer goaltending than anyone could have expected (and no one knew what to expect, remember? Remember when no one believed the league was gonna chnage the away they called penalities? Remember?) . He built a big team like before the lockout. He assumed (which by the way, was a fair assumption given the NHL's modus operandi) that the league would relapse and it would be a tug of war out there again. I mean, it had been thatway for years previous.

So, the next year, he concentrates on more of a Buffalo model by trying to steal a fairly cheap 'tender and spending money where it was needed--on D. Even more ridiculous injuries and even worse goaltending than expected pushed the Leafs on the outs by one point in one of the tightest races down the stretch I have ever seen.

This year, he isn't going the cheap route and took a hit to get as sure a very solid goaltender as was available. Now, it wasn't THAT big a hit as we are talking the 13 pick (who turned out to be Alex Daigle and a guy who doesn't know when he'll play in the league Oh yes, and super star lars eller.).

And, in case you hadn't noticed, teams like Tampa have won the cup recently. It only takes your goalie to get hot and your role players to gut it out to make the finals and get a shot at the big prize. They did have talent, but mainly it was goaltending.

Parity is the name of the game now. Scoring is on the decline. Those "top-level prospects" don't see the light of day unless the pluggers are buying them space.

While some of these franchsies bank only on prospects only to see them fall short more than half the time and then almost lose their shirts (as Ottawa and half the league are desperately trying to avoid, despite their on-ice success) the Leafs are trying for a more moderate model (a la anaheim.) Now, they didn't suck as much as Anaheim did before the lockout, so they didn't have the upper tier picks to make to improve as quickly through trade and talent.

Let's wait until the Leafs actually have a season where their defence and forwards actually play more than a month of games combined before we take the GM's head off, ok? Let's see how a team with a great defensive coach, the best player sweden has ever seen, a very good goalie, some nice "second-tier" (whatever) prospects, and a ton of heart and grit and a free agent forward to play with Mats do in the playoffs. I don't know...I'd cheer for them, and probably bet on them, too.
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Post#33 » by Marmoset » Sat Jun 30, 2007 1:28 pm

I think you can argue all day about whether the trade itself was good or not. I think it's decent and could go either way. The problem is the overall approach - how is this team ever supposed to become a contender if it keeps trading away high draft picks? You can do it one year to make a serious push, but you can't do it 3-4 years in a row.

Trading away draft picks could work if there is no cap, because you can always make up for a lack of young, cheap players with free agents. WITH a cap, you can't really do that. You're still going to have young, cheap players, but instead of putting 1st and 2nd round picks into your lineup, you're putting 3rd and 4th round picks in your lineup. Some 1st rounders will be duds and some 4th rounders will be stars, but statistically it's obvious which group of young players will be better.

To sum that up: As a stand-alone, short-term trade, it's decent and maybe even quite good. In the greater picture, it's yet another step backwards for the long-term health of the team.
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Post#34 » by Crowned » Mon Jul 2, 2007 7:12 pm

Damien Cox always has something negative to say about the Leafs. This is the same guy that criticized the Kaberle signing.
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Post#35 » by youreachiteach » Wed Jul 4, 2007 10:38 pm

Crowned wrote:Damien Cox always has something negative to say about the Leafs. This is the same guy that criticized the Kaberle signing.


BINGO. When the Leafs turn the season around, every year he is forced to go back on his "predictions" and pessimism and praise the organization.
Then, when the injuries come and the team falls out of contention, they're still the same "old-fogey" Leafs that never collect enough draft picks.

Never mind one of their picks almost made the team last year, and the other one is burning up the Russian elite league. Never mind they just signed one ofthe best offensive defenceman ever to come out of Sweden (according to the Swedish dailies, not me). Never mind the Wellwood's (on pace with Spezza before his injury) and the Steen's.

Unless the team tanks totally (at which point, Cox will decry how bad the team is) Cox will always be able to trot out this glass is half full BS.

Preparing to lose is preparing to fail. If you're already bad, fine. Jettision your older expirings for picks. But you had better be REALLY bad, especially with the parity that is in the league these days.

Because anyone, and I mean anyone, can win. Isn't that the point?

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