A Look at the 2011 HOF Class

Post #1 » by **sunshinekids99** » Wed Dec 29, 2010 10:09 pm

Things have slowed down in baseball, so I figured this could be an intresting topic.

Here is the list of guys:

Bert Blyleven
Roberto Alomar
Jack Morris
Barry Larkin
Lee Smith
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
Fred McGriff
Don Mattingly
Dave Parker
Dale Murphy
Harold Baines
Carlos Baerga
Jeff Bagwell
Brett Boone
Kevin Brown
John Franco
Juan González
Marquis Grissom
Lenny Harris
Bobby Higginson
Charles Johnson
Al Leiter
Tino Martinez
Raúl Mondesí
John Olerud
Rafael Palmeiro
Kirk Rueter
Benito Santiago
B. J. Surhoff
Larry Walker

Here is who I would vote for:
Roberto Alomar
Bert Blyleven
Rock Raines
Edgar Marintez
Fred McGriff
Jeff Bagwell

There are some other guys that had HOF seasons like Olerud, Mattingly, Parker, and Murphy that I just can't include on my list.

I also won't include McGwire, Gonzalez, and Palmeiro for obvious reasons.

The player I had the hardest time with was Larry Walker. He had great numbers, but I'm not so sure those great stats happen without Coors.

Who do you guys got?

bigboy1234 · Post #2 » by **bigboy1234** » Thu Dec 30, 2010 2:47 am

Surefire
Jeff Bagwell

Yes
Bert Blyleven

Should
Kevin Brown
Alan Trammell
Edgar Martinez

Very Close
Roberto Alomar
Larry Walker
Mark McGwire
Barry Larkin

Slightly less close
John Olerud
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Rafael Palmeiro

Very good, but no
Dave Parker
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff

No
Jack Morris
Al Leiter
Juan González
Brett Boone
Marquis Grissom
Raúl Mondesí
B. J. Surhoff
Harold Baines
Tino Martinez
Carlos Baerga
Bobby Higginson
Charles Johnson
Lee Smith
Benito Santiago
John Franco
Kirk Rueter

Pure Hilarity
Lenny Harris

Post #3 » by **sunshinekids99** » Thu Dec 30, 2010 8:19 pm

I'm surprised you have McGriff on your very good but no.

From 88 to 94 McGriff had HOF seasons. Then his 99 and 01 seasons were very good as well. 8 or 9 seasons of one of the best hitter in baseball is good enough for me.

bigboy1234 · Post #4 » by **bigboy1234** » Mon Jan 3, 2011 2:16 pm

Why do you think he is better than Olerud? Olerud had the 2 best hitting seasons and was a great defensive 1B. I'll make a list of my top 100 or so positional players in the past 50 years if I'm not feeling lazy later today, which I currently have McGriff just out of.

Dirty Water · Post #5 » by **Dirty Water** » Mon Jan 3, 2011 4:24 pm

Always thought Olerud was on the the best all-around players in the league for a time. Not to mention he's a class-act. Not sure if that makes him HOF really tho.

From your list only guys I like are Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez (best DH of all time imo).

Bert Blyleven is one of those guys who's been on the cusp of being voted in for a long time (like Jim Rice.) I'm not sure it's the right thing to just let him in because of that. Feels like pity to me. There's a reason he hasn't been voted in earlier.

Reasons I don't like for other guys

Roberto Alomar -
I understand he's a better man that what he did to that umpire, and he's a pretty classy guy. But that's always the one thing I remember when I think of him. It's a shame.

Larry Walker
Like others have said, Coors Field. Period.

Bret Boone
LOL what did he have like one good year? Might as well put Brady Anderson on this list.

Alan Trammel
His overall numbers look pretty ordinary to me. .285 BA, 185 HRs, 2300 hits. His defense was good, but I don't think that's enough to merrit HOF consideration.

Kevin Brown
There's a difference between perennial all-star and HOF candidate. Someone like Curt Schilling has similar numbers but I think his postseason work and outgoing personality (even though as a Red Sox fan I think he's a clown and don't like him that much) does more for him.

Fred McGriff
One of the better players of the 90s. What hurts him is that there are others with similar numbers. He is a class act and I like to believe he never did steroids, but the sad fact of the era he played in hurts his rep.

As for Steroid players
I'd vote for McGwire. At least the man admitted his mistakes. His numbers are crazy. Take away200 of his homers for steroids and I'd still vote him in.

Palmiero is a joke shouldn't even been on the list. Cheated. Lied about it. Scolded others. Got caught.

Post #6 » by **sunshinekids99** » Mon Jan 3, 2011 6:51 pm

bigboy1234 wrote:Why do you think he is better than Olerud? Olerud had the 2 best hitting seasons and was a great defensive 1B. I'll make a list of my top 100 or so positional players in the past 50 years if I'm not feeling lazy later today, which I currently have McGriff just out of.

I actually don't tihnk it's that close to be honest. Olerud had 2 great years, problem is those are his only HOF worth years. Great guy and a very good hitter. However, I'll take my chance with McGriff over him.

bigboy1234 · Post #7 » by **bigboy1234** » Mon Jan 3, 2011 7:09 pm

Their best batting run season via bb-ref

Season..Olerud..McGriff
1............72.........54
2............57.........43
3............41.........42
4............38.........38
5............37.........35
6............32.........35
7............21.........35
8............17.........24
9............14.........21
10..........10.........15

Their first two seasons Olerud has 32 more batting runs, which is quite a bit. Then they are even for the next 4 seasons pretty much. Then McGriff keeps a steady pace of having a few more runs per season. Alone on that I would take Olerud, then factor in Olerud had a great glove at 1B and McGriff was average at best. I'm not so sure how McGriff is better really, his rate stats do make him look better than batting runs offensively because he didn't play as much as Olerud though, so I guess there is that.

Dirty Water · Post #8 » by **Dirty Water** » Mon Jan 3, 2011 8:39 pm

Can you explain to me what a "batting run" is? Sorry I'm not a sabermetrics guy and google isn't helping.

bigboy1234 · Post #9 » by **bigboy1234** » Mon Jan 3, 2011 9:09 pm

Well technically it's "runs batting" so my fault on that, although pretty much identical to "batting runs", they are slightly different numbers. It's pretty much linear weights (the run value of each individual outcome of a PA) saying how many runs better/worse than a player is than league average, so you can be under zero. It's park and league adjusted.

bigboy1234 · Post #10 » by **bigboy1234** » Tue Jan 4, 2011 8:37 pm

It looks as if Bagwell won't be making it, well at least this year. Nevermind the fact that it is stupid that he all of a sudden becomes a better player while retired, but I have him in my top 20 position players in the past 50 years and he isn't hall of fame worthy, really? Then Kevin Brown will likely get dropped from the ballot after one year, the same year it looks like an inferior pitcher in Morris makes it in.

Post #11 » by **sunshinekids99** » Tue Jan 4, 2011 8:54 pm

Brown would be in a different light with out the steroids cloud over him.

I see no reason why Jack Morris should be in the HOF. Has some real classic games, but his numbers are just not there. Only had one year with an ERA under 3.25. I just don't get the votes for him.

As for Bagwell not really surprised that he won't get in on his first try. But he'll be in next year cause you know he improved waiting one more year.

aggo · Post #12 » by **aggo** » Wed Jan 5, 2011 10:18 pm

Why people so down on Larry Walker?

Before anyone really cared about OPS, OBP%, Larry Walker was the king of both stats. He was a hitter ahead of his time.

People realized, through Money Ball, that the key to scoring runs is getting on base. period. Larry Walker did that up until he retired. Coors Field can't make up a .450 OBP%, or 9 straight years of OBP% at one point.

There are ridiculous rumors of all these late 90s/early 00s of steroids. e.g. Guys with insane backne. Piazza, Bagwell but Larry Walker seems to be one of those guys who dodges these rumors.

Dirty Water · Post #13 » by **Dirty Water** » Thu Jan 6, 2011 7:16 pm

bigboy1234 wrote:It looks as if Bagwell won't be making it, well at least this year. Nevermind the fact that it is stupid that he all of a sudden becomes a better player while retired, but I have him in my top 20 position players in the past 50 years and he isn't hall of fame worthy, really? Then Kevin Brown will likely get dropped from the ballot after one year, the same year it looks like an inferior pitcher in Morris makes it in.

AggO wrote:There are ridiculous rumors of all these late 90s/early 00s of steroids. e.g. Guys with insane backne. Piazza, Bagwell but Larry Walker seems to be one of those guys who dodges these rumors.

It's steroid suspicion. The whole situation is a mess. It really sucks. Bagwell was never linked to steroids and the fact that he's a muscular power hitter from the steroid era kills him. Baseball needs to figure out what to do with these guys. What are we going to do now? Throw out every homerun hitter from the last 20 years? Juan Gonzalez, Frank Thomas, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds are all going to be thrown into this mess the next few years. There are a number of baseball writers that just won't vote for guys like these. It's silly. Now do we think Bonds/Sosa are guilty? Yes. Can we prove it? No. McGwire at least came clean, which takes a bigger man I'll admitt. But now some writers will never let him in. Is that why these other guys won't come out?

I think eventually some of these guys need to get in. No asterisks either. Get in on numbers and then we as fans can decide their worth. Baseball Hall of Fame is a museum of the game's past, I think it needs to be left that way. That's why Pete Rose needs to get in too. Not letting guys like Bagwell is a seriously slippery slope with no defined guidelines. It's Selig's mess, but I don't think guys like Bagwell have to suffer because of it.