What if the lockout is real?

[parson]

If we can assume (at least for a moment) that the owners would really lock the players out until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached, how would that impact player acquisitions NOW?

For example, would trading a young Smoove for Steve Nash still make sense? Would we want to place as many of our young projects as possible into the Developmental League? Would expiring contracts still be as attractive?

What if our only choice would be between playing to win now or playing for 2012? Which players would become more attractive and which ones would become less?

[evildallas]

The owners would lockout the players, so no assumption necessary. Win now moves probably don't make that much sense because the supposed strength of the roster is familiarity. Unless a sweetheart deal presents itself (like the Gasol to LA deal) then a shakeup to the roster probably won't gel in time to make a real run. I'm not ruling out tweaks, just major deals.

Sadly I think the worst contract to have in terms of a lockout is Joe's. The lockout basically suspends the clock on contracts, so we could lose a year of Joe's prime (supposed prime) and have it replaced with another year of mid 30s Joe at the end. Scary. This possibility makes me suspect that if we were spiraling downward near the trade deadline that Joe might get dealt for some cap relief to a team looking to go all out for a win now (I still suspect Dallas would be a candidate Joe/Etan/2nd for Caron/Brendan/1st). By spiraling I mean around .500 and not competing for 4th place in the East. In theory we'd still make the playoffs even without Joe, so if we don't look like a top 5 team with him then we'd be smart to minimize our long term risk. Note that Brendan's contract isn't pretty either, but as a C he'd allow us to restructure our lineup around Josh at SF, Al at PF, we'd start Brendan at the 5 (which might help his attitude and production) with Jason Collins and Zaza getting relief minutes. Marvin would become the 7th man. Caron would slide into the 2 guard spot for the rest of the season and then just come off the cap. Jamal might get resigned as the future 2 guard if he agreed to a reasonable salary for 3 years. JC2 would inherit the bench scorer role. That late 1st would allow us to take a flier on a Keith Benson as a young development C or maybe a guard like Nolan Smith. Our 1st would likely be in the middle of the round which should be good for a swingman (Jordan Hamilton?) or a point guard (Josh Selby?) if Teague doesn't look like an answer.

I don't expect any of this to happen, but if we're struggling at that time then getting out of Joe's long term deal makes sense.

[parson]

So, for as much as I've been screaming for Nash, it might not make sense, huh?

And nix on Joe for Butler/Hayward. I'd take Hayward, but not for a truly superior player - and Joe is. We'd end up with Smoove/Butler/Marvelous at SF ... just for the right to play Brendan Hayward. That's a major step backwards with a lot of wasted money having to sit on the bench.

I just don't trust Hayward to care about anything but his salary. Jamal for Hayward/plus? Probably, but not much more.

[geeman]

evildallas.... Dude,You should be running the Hawk! That makes to much sense! but we all know they'll just wait two year until Joe is a shadow of himself and then think they'll be able to move him.
AND WE'LL BE IN CAP HELL!

[azuresou1]

This upcoming draft class looks like garbage from top to bottom, and I'd rather trade our pick for a future pick.

[ATL DirtyBird]

This team will get hammered if there is a lockout.

What are the chances of the lockout happening? I believe it is quite high.

[MaceCase]

Caron just went down with what might be a serious knee injury. This might force Dallas to be more willing to take on a deal like Joe's and maybe even add better sweetener like Robo Bobo to get rid of Haywood. It's not a pretty deal, he's not as skilled, he's older but it's a year less and half the cap hit and at a position where we need skilled girth.
If this team has made up it's mind to play chicken with the lux tax line then it's only better to be two MLE deals beneath it than barely a vet minimum beneath it with plenty of guys from Jamal and even Marvin played adequately at SG this season and a medley of young SGs available in free agency all the same age as our core and almost guaranteed to be better at 28 than Joe will at 33.

[evildallas]

I just wanted to amend the trade idea because of the injury to Caron Butler. The injury which is thought serious increases the chances of Mark Cuban being willing to take on the salary of Joe which increases what he'd be willing to pay to get scoring help and to maintain the viability of a run this year. The deal would get us a speedy defensive PG, a C, a pick, and cash while reducing the future commitments of the team. The pick is 2012 by the way as they traded away the 2010 pick and can't deal the 2011 pick until draft day. Getting Beaubois allows us to draft a swingman like Jordan Hamilton with our pick.

Joe Johnson
Etan Thomas
Mo Evans
for
Brendan Haywood
Caron Butler (for salary match)
Rodrique Beaubois
2012 1st pick
Cash

Again something like this only would happen if the Hawks flounder, but it would make sense financially for ownership.

[azuresou1]

Think we'd be able to sub in Chandler for Haywood and the 1st?

[HMFFL]

I just wanted to amend the trade idea because of the injury to Caron Butler. The injury which is thought serious increases the chances of Mark Cuban being willing to take on the salary of Joe which increases what he'd be willing to pay to get scoring help and to maintain the viability of a run this year. The deal would get us a speedy defensive PG, a C, a pick, and cash while reducing the future commitments of the team. The pick is 2012 by the way as they traded away the 2010 pick and can't deal the 2011 pick until draft day. Getting Beaubois allows us to draft a swingman like Jordan Hamilton with our pick.

Joe Johnson
Etan Thomas
Mo Evans
for
Brendan Haywood
Caron Butler (for salary match)
Rodrique Beaubois
2012 1st pick
Cash

Again something like this only would happen if the Hawks flounder, but it would make sense financially for ownership.

I doubt Dallas even considers that offer. Cuban has been on record to saying he won't trade Roddy unless he acquires a superstar (Bron or Wade) in return. I know it sounds ignorant, but it shows you how much he covets Roddy, and it's mainly because he is the only young player on the team that has a bright future. The other young talent is Dominique Jones, but he has to dominate the ball to be successful, and it won't happen with the Mavericks.

Another example: During this past draft, Cuban turned down a lottery pick for Roddy, and I believe Indiana is the team that offered.

Cuban has a problem not being able to detach from the players he likes. It has hurt the Mavericks for years now and I doubt Cuban changes.

Think we'd be able to sub in Chandler for Haywood and the 1st?

Not likely. The organization has been needing someone like Chandler inside for years now and Haywood appears to have some issues with the coaching staff over his playing time. Haywood signed a contract extension after the organization promised he'd be the starter, so at the moment, I can see him going before Chandler does.

[D21]

Just need to watch DAL playing to see that they won't trade Chandler for a trade that doesn't bring another good big and helps another team, because trading Joe in this case is getting help financially.

Chandler won't be traded, or it would be for another C we would like to get, but not one we can offer (said we won't offer Horford).
Haywood is the only one they would agree to trade.

Would Haywood be happy coming from the bench ? Maybe, if he plays enough.
He could also start with Josh at SF, then at PF once Haywood is out.

He should be a big improvement over Zaza, and Zaza should be included in the trade.

[td00]

I would find it impossible to believe that Joe is in the smallest possibility available for a trade. That contract would strap any organization going forward.

I shouldn't say impossible because I never thought Arenas could be dealt and someone get something of value in return.

Now, if there were a couple of teams looking at Joe, it might be:

Cleveland - they need all the help they can get.
Portland based on what it does with Brandon Roy, who is going to be hard to move.
Dallas - this is a long shot IMO
NYK - if they see Carmelo go to NJ, they have to compensate somewhere.

But to move Joe, Jamal has to be given a contract going forward. That in itself is just too much of a fantasy to believe.

I think Joe is the guy who has to step up and lead this team for this decade going forward even though he isn't a #1 elite player. The core will be together through this CBA negotiation.

[evildallas]

Another way to change the lineup would be to trade Marvin (once healthy) for Haywood straight up. Mavericks get a F to replace Butler and we get a C to restructure the lineup. Long term salary impact is almost negligible. Doesn't get out of the Joe contract but would balance the lineup better.

The reason I focused on Dallas for Joe is because they can absorb his contract because of deep pocketed ownership. They also showed they were one of the best teams in the league prior to all the injuries so the thought of risking it all for a run this year seems feasible.