[Camelo Thread Part 6] - Update: NJ tries again Pg. 71

[Dr. Detfink]

Harrington is allergic to passing...

[Knicker23]

I can't see NJ offering the best deal Denver could possibly get for the superstar that they are losing .. in a rental deal.. unless you're saying NJ just stupidly gives the same amount that they'd offer were he extending to rent him for a year - in which case they are setting themselves years and years back just to watch a great player come to a bad team for a few months.... **** they're basically out of the playoff hunt right now, why would they trade away their future so that Melo could come play for 3 months and then be gone... I hear what youre saying about 'hoping he signs at the end' but that's way to risky / stupid of a hope for NJ to take.... now if your the Mavs that may be a different story.

I don't think Melo has any desire to wait it out till FA.... he's not willing to sign somewhere he doesn't want to go, but he doesn't want to get shafted either... LIkewise, I think Denver wants to make a deal rather than lose him for potentially nothing [/very little].. so those two things will hopefully come together and make some sort of trade happen.

You never know what is going through Melo's head and how far away he is from the idea of playing in NJ / what types of players would need to go with him [if there even are any] for him to be happy going there... perhaps that's just his way of saying 'I don't want to go.." politely...

But there still remains a chance that Denver and NJ, who are obviously working together to make something happen, will pull in a bunch of different teams and pull of some odd deal that somehow lands Melo and a decent other player in NJ, while giving Denver what they want.... the longer this goes on, the more I think that would be the only real way to stop him from doing what he wants and coming to NY.

[moocow007]

Harrington is allergic to passing...

He was also on a team that needed to score to win, asked to be it's primary offensive player and more often than not had his teammates roll over and play dead when the other team made a run.

Again...in the right situation, Harrington would be doable. He can score and score quickly especially if he's not forced to be the primary focus of the opposing team (which he wouldn't be now).

But regardless of that, Harrington shouldn't be the deal breaker in a Melo trade.

[cgmw]

Nope. You said Melo will not risk to become an FA this summer because he would lose money with new CBA. That is what you claimed. Guess what? Turiaf may never get a contract above minimum if the mid-level exception is gone. Melo at least knows that he will get the max no matter what the new max is.

Just to be clear, since this is the Melo thread, my position on CARMELO is that Denver retains leverage even after the February deadline because of the danger associated with the new CBA. The closer it gets to July, the more Carmelo will have to sweat the new CBA, the more pressure there will be to sign a deal under the current CBA with Denver. That's all I'm saying.

Turiaf is in a completely different situation. He doesn't have the same choice as Carmelo. Nobody is offering him an extension under the current CBA. All he has is a 1 year option for $4 million. I'm no CBA expert, but I find it hard to believe a capable, energetic center in the prime of his career could only get a 1 year, $4 mil deal on the open market. These are two completely different situations.

There is no question that Carmelo will get a multi-year MAX deal. The only question is how much will it be worth under the new CBA? If he really does get scared, maybe he just picks up that final year, plays it out and tries again in 2012. Who knows. All sorts of things could happen between February and July to influence the market in Denver's favor.

My point, which I'm repeating ad-nauseum because nobody wants to hear anything negative about Carmelo to NY:

No matter what Carmelo says, Denver has bargaining leverage even after the February deadline. I don't foresee them giving up at the deadline and making a trade unless they get a very very solid offer. I know it's not what people want to hear, but it seems to be the logical reality of the situation IMO.

[seren]

Just to be clear, since this is the Melo thread, my position on CARMELO is that Denver retains leverage even after the February deadline because of the danger associated with the new CBA. The closer it gets to July, the more Carmelo will have to sweat the new CBA, the more pressure there will be to sign a deal under the current CBA with Denver. That's all I'm saying.

Turiaf is in a completely different situation. He doesn't have the same choice as Carmelo. Nobody is offering him an extension under the current CBA. All he has is a 1 year option for $4 million. I'm no CBA expert, but I find it hard to believe a capable, energetic center in the prime of his career could only get a 1 year, $4 mil deal on the open market. These are two completely different situations.

There is no question that Carmelo will get a multi-year MAX deal. The only question is how much will it be worth under the new CBA? If he really does get scared, maybe he just picks up that final year, plays it out and tries again in 2012. Who knows. All sorts of things could happen between February and July to influence the market in Denver's favor.

So Melo is scared of reduction and will commit to a one year deal? Yet Turiaf will opt out and take his chances? Why isn't he scared? It is not like Turiaf is a marquee player. Please read what you just said again and see whether it makes any sense.

[FieldsMedal]

I think fans should get used to the idea of Harrington 2.0.

I don't see how the Nuggets deal him to NY without him included and there is NO WAY they do a deal without Harrington before the deadline.

The situation hasn't really been a distraction for Denver. They're 20-13 despite little contribution thus far from Martin and Anderson, Billups had been playing pretty poorly up until just recently and the games 'Melo has missed.

What possible motivation do they have to do a deal before the deadline unless they are really, really happy with the deal being offered?

Melo and Harrington make $22.9 between then, which means the Knicks would need $18.2m. Curry ($12.9m with trade kicker) and Azubuike ($3.3m) get you most of the way there ($16.2m).

Either one of Gallinari, Chandler or Randolph gets you to the salary match all by themselves.

And if at the deadline, it comes down to maybe having to give back a little less, getting the trade done AND perhaps gaining use of the MLE in the off season, don't know how Walsh doesn't do that, particularly since Harrington is HIS guy.

I don't think Walsh dislikes him as much of some fans here do.

[moocow007]

I think fans should get used to the idea of Harrington 2.0.

I don't see how the Nuggets deal him to NY without him included and there is NO WAY they do a deal without Harrington before the deadline.

The situation hasn't really been a distraction for Denver. They're 20-13 despite little contribution thus far from Martin and Anderson, Billups had been playing pretty poorly up until just recently and the games 'Melo has missed.

What possible motivation do they have to do a deal before the deadline unless they are really, really happy with the deal being offered?

Melo and Harrington make $22.9 between then, which means the Knicks would need $18.2m. Curry ($12.9m with trade kicker) and Azubuike ($3.3m) get you most of the way there ($16.2m).

Either one of Gallinari, Chandler or Randolph gets you to the salary match all by themselves.

And if at the deadline, it comes down to maybe having to give back a little less, getting the trade done AND perhaps gaining use of the MLE in the off season, don't know how Walsh doesn't do that, particularly since Harrington is HIS guy.

I don't think Walsh dislikes him as much of some fans here do.

Agreed. Push comes to shove, Harrington isn't enough of a negative to kill a Melo to NY deal and Walsh would be insane if he let it be a deal breaker. Honestly, NY can probably deal Harrington to Dallas for Brendan Haywood who has been absolutely brutal since signing his new contract (IF they are so deadset against Harrington long term). Would give NY a "big".

[Pharmcat]

if you need to take on harrington to get melo, you take him on

thats a no brainer

[FieldsMedal]

Turiaf is in a completely different situation. He doesn't have the same choice as Carmelo. Nobody is offering him an extension under the current CBA. All he has is a 1 year option for $4 million.

$4.4m, just to be exact.

I'm no CBA expert, but I find it hard to believe a capable, energetic center in the prime of his career could only get a 1 year, $4 mil deal on the open market. These are two completely different situations.

Well, to be fair, he does have health concerns, and with Turiaf you're pretty reserved to only playing him so many minutes AND knowing he's going to miss games.

That said, I don't think it's a matter of this theoretical market value (in the current market), it's more than uncertainty of what means teams will have to offer him in the next CBA.

If the owners are serious about a hard(er) cap, rather than just using that as leverage to get the players to agree on a salary roll-back (my personal belief), then the MLE would be a prime target.

Bird Rights won't go away. So how do you make the cap harder? Changing the MLE is a obvious answer. Reducing it or eliminating it to be more exact.

Now imagine a market where Turiaf doesn't have 25 or so teams armed with the MLE to sign him? If nothing else, it would likely eliminate any chance of him landing on a contender. And for team's with cap space, is Turiaf the type of player you target?

His main value depth to contender.

Not saying elimination of the MLE is likely, but it IS out there. Players and agents are aware it WILL be on the table in negotiations.

$4.4m is a risk when it could be your last $4.4m.

[god shammgod]

if you need to take on harrington to get melo, you take him on

thats a no brainer

agreed

[Justdatdude]

I really don't see the Knicks getting Melo this season. The Nuggets are 20-13 with their bigs missing most of the season, Billups playing poorly, and Carmelo missing multiple games. They're finally healthy, the Lakers look beatable, the Mavericks look like the best team out West and that's a team the Nuggets usually beat...Carmelo isn't being traded out West and he isn't being traded for crap.

If I'm the Nuggets GM, I take my last shot at a title run before just throwing it all in. They have multiple expiring deals. Unless they're going on a firesale, its no reason to trade Carmelo.

[moocow007]

I really don't see the Knicks getting Melo this season. The Nuggets are 20-13 with their bigs missing most of the season, Billups playing poorly, and Carmelo missing multiple games. They're finally healthy, the Lakers look beatable, the Mavericks look like the best team out West and that's a team the Nuggets usually beat...Carmelo isn't being traded out West and he isn't being traded for crap.

If I'm the Nuggets GM, I take my last shot at a title run before just throwing it all in. They have multiple expiring deals. Unless they're going on a firesale, its no reason to trade Carmelo.

I'd be ok with this as well.

[cgmw]

^
Both excellent posts, FieldsMedal.

1) Re: Al Harrington, I'd add that our willingness to take back his salary is as key a trade asset as anything else we're offering. I agree that Denver is unlikely to move Melo without dumping Al on us.

2) Re: Turiaf, very well said. Still, teams like Phoenix would give Ronny a multi-year deal. I suppose it'll come down to whether Ronny wants to play out the final year of his contract at a discount in the hopes of signing a longterm extension using his Bird Rights. Now that you've spelled it out, I can see how that seems very possible too.

In a best-case scenario, we trade for Melo at the deadline, then Ronny picks up his option and we re-sign him next year along with Fields, Gallinari, Randolph, or whomever is still around after the Melo deal.

[FieldsMedal]

2) Re: Turiaf, very well said. Still, teams like Phoenix would give Ronny a multi-year deal. I suppose it'll come down to whether Ronny wants to play out the final year of his contract at a discount in the hopes of signing a longterm extension using his Bird Rights. Now that you've spelled it out, I can see how that seems very possible too.

You actually raise a good point. He declines his option and signs somewhere else, his bird rights expire.

He takes his option, then at the very least, the Knicks will still have this Bird Right NEXT offseason, or if he's traded during 2011-12, the team trading for him will have this Bird Rights in the summer of 2012.

It could theoretically OPEN the market for him broadly if you look at it a certain way.

[seren]

2) Re: Turiaf, very well said. Still, teams like Phoenix would give Ronny a multi-year deal. I suppose it'll come down to whether Ronny wants to play out the final year of his contract at a discount in the hopes of signing a longterm extension using his Bird Rights. Now that you've spelled it out, I can see how that seems very possible too.

You actually raise a good point. He declines his option and signs somewhere else, his bird rights expire.

He takes his option, then at the very least, the Knicks will still have this Bird Right NEXT offseason, or if he's traded during 2011-12, the team trading for him will have this Bird Rights in the summer of 2012.

It could theoretically OPEN the market for him broadly if you look at it a certain way.

good point. the bird rights matter to players. dallas/nj deal for JKidd comes to mind. Davean George refused to go to NJ (apparently you have the right to reject a trade if you are on a one year deal) because he would lose the bird rights. I would think Turiaf's agent would mention this to him before he decides to opt out. If Turiaf is that good to get more than 1 yr/4 mil, I am sure his agent can find a team for him with a extend and trade.

[RHODEY]

dupe

[RHODEY]

I dont't Mind Harrington, I really dont as a backup, @4.4 million with our shallow bench. He's not hurting Denver....

Even world renowned chucker antione walker was able to fill a valuable role for that Championship Miami team.

[Pharmcat]

I really don't see the Knicks getting Melo this season. The Nuggets are 20-13 with their bigs missing most of the season, Billups playing poorly, and Carmelo missing multiple games. They're finally healthy, the Lakers look beatable, the Mavericks look like the best team out West and that's a team the Nuggets usually beat...Carmelo isn't being traded out West and he isn't being traded for crap.

If I'm the Nuggets GM, I take my last shot at a title run before just throwing it all in. They have multiple expiring deals. Unless they're going on a firesale, its no reason to trade Carmelo.

honestly, you may be right

they might just ride out this year and collect max revenue they can (isnt the # like 1 mill profit per home playoff game?) since they know there will be a downturn if melo leaves in the future

[seren]

I mentioned this before. Denver has like 23 home games left. They have like 13 home games until the deadline (well 12 excluding the game on deadline). They can almost guarantee a playoff spot by the deadline given the weak bottom of the West. Even this by itself makes it worthwhile to wait until the deadline.

[NYK0605]

Denver is foolish if they go down Toronto's route and let him walk.

He is going to get traded by the deadline.