Draft Talk

[TSE]

I'd prefer to trade back towards the end of the first round. I don't see a premier list of ideal candidates in that 10-15 range for us because of several different positions we could address. I wouldn't rule out trading up but for the cost to do so and the money and still not having a specific single player jump out as the obvious answer makes it seem very unlikely. Trade down all the way.

[ajaX82]

Trading back and picking up some additional picks doesn't sound bad to me either. 13 is kind of a weird spot in this draft

NFL draft scout has 2 mocks updated with us taking Amukamara in one (yay) and Jenkins, the CB from Florida in the other. I dont know much about Jenkins, but here is a scouting report for him

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1620533

Certainly sounds decent. I'd say we are looking CB or OLB all the way

[Icness]

13 is a strange no-man's land, but it's an area where teams picking lower that are targeting specific guys tend to trade up to.

I would not trade up at all, not even a consideration. To move up even two spots would cost a 3rd rounder, and there is not marked difference in talent level between player 8 and player 25 in this draft. It's more of individual preference, though some separating will happen.

The Lions are in a favorable spot to get an OL like Castonzo or Ijalana, whom IMO is going to shoot up boards after the Senior Bowl. Nate Solder could still be around too and he'd be a good pick.

Von Miller will be long gone, he's in the 5-10 range. I think he goes to Buffalo at #3 if Bowers is gone. Ryan Kerrigan might be around but DL is the last position this team needs. He might make a good OLB but that transition takes time that I'm not willing to spend and I don't think Schwartz is either.

Guys I'm interested in if I'm Mayhew:
Prince Amukamara, who is indeed falling because he gets beat deep too much.
Stefen Wisniewski, Penn State center that can also play guard. He'll be there at #20 though, so that would be a trade-back move.
Solder or Ijalana, more a fan of Solder because he's a left tackle. Move Backus inside, win-win.
Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. Playmaker that can hit.
Jerrel Jernigan. I don't think Mayhew would take a WR in the first though.
Robert Quinn, if he clears medically


I am not a Janoris Jenkins fan, certainly not comign off major shoulder surgery. He's small-framed and won't break 4.5 in the 40. Maybe in the 2nd, no chance in the first.
There are quite a few LBs that fit in the second-round range the Lions are in and I hope they ascertain that and don't reach. Dontay Moch would be great.

[TSE]

We really need a defensive pick and I don't see any solid secondary choices that will be around there and the LB value in the next 2 rounds seems better. I would really like to see Nick Fairley drop to that spot but that's probably wishful thinking (who wants Corey Williams and KVB and/or other DLs in trade so we can add Fairley and Kerrigan and get some youth built around Suh?). It's nice to know that there will be some LT choices as backup plans if our top defensive targets all get scooped up.

[ajaX82]

^ everything i have seen about Fairly suggests top-10, and i just don't wanna spend back to back first rounders on a DT when we already have Suh, Hill and Mr. Offside...err Williams. Doesn't Farily have some character issues too, or am i misremembering?

Trading back is again the best case scenario here probably, unless somebody really good tumbles. The Pats seem to trade back like 5 times every year, load up on picks and still get their guy, so heres to hoping Mayhew was paying attention.

If we stay at 13, Amukamara seems to be the best case realistic scenario. After that, i would be fine with an OT like Solder.

[Icness]

Fairley has earned his rep of being a dirty player, but he's not a bad dude. He is incredibly high on himself but a lot of guys in his position are guilty of that. IIRC he had a drinking/assault incident that got plead down, but again that's not a huge issue if its an isolated incident. And he will absolutely be a top 10 pick, perhaps even #1 if Luck stays in school. Luck, Bowers, Fairley, AJ Green, and Peterson are all lead-pipe cinches for top 10. Peterson could slide if he doesn't test well, but he's better than Joe Haden and they have the same negatives and Haden still went #7 last year...and was great after a slow start.

Still a little early to gauge the QB market because some veterans are going to be available. Alex Smith is out there, Kyle Orton can be had, Vince Young might be available if Jeff Fisher stays in TEN, Matt Leinart will not be back in Houston, McNabb is out there, Chad Henne is probably out there. I'm probably forgetting some too. I think Gabbert is a top 10 potential but I'm not convinced. Locker is tough to slot right now; could be in the top 10, could be in the 30-40 range (I wouldn't take him with a 3rd). Ryan Mallett is a broderline 1st/2nd rounder if he comes out. Christian Ponder can work his way into the first if his elbow is healthy.

TSE--here's how watered down the "trading veterans away" market is: Denver will take a 2nd round pick for Kyle Orton, who thru 8 games was on pace for the best passing season in NFL history. San Diego couldn't get a 2nd for Marcus McNeill, an above-average left tackle. Kansas City is going to auction off Tyson Jackson, the #3 pick in the 2009 draft, and will be lucky to get a 3rd rounder for him--and it might be Detroit's.

Teams don't want to give up picks for vets, too expensive even if there's no way a 3rd round pick can come close to what Marcus McNeill can do. That market just isn't there. Corey Williams might bring back a 6th. Kevin Smith gets a 7th at best. Matt Stafford is untradeable even if the Lions agreed with you and wanted to deal him--who is going to trade for a guy that can't stay on the field? Would you? They'd be lucky to get a 3rd rounder if the market for Orton is a 2nd. I'm not sure they'd get a top 15 pick for Calvin Johnson.

[cochiseuofm]

I think Calvin could get a top-ten pick for the Lions easily...Randy Moss got traded for the 7th overall pick, even though he was a huge primadonna in Minnesota. Top-ten picks, at least as of now, are paid very highly without having proven anything on the field. I have no idea why a team would want to keep a pick and pay a rookie as if he were one of the top at his position, rather than actually trading for one of the top of his position.

Not saying I'd trade him BTW...he's too much fun to watch to get rid of, as long as he wants to stay in Detroit, keep him.

[kellmellus50]

i told everyone the lions are looking for a 3rd reciever and now need a running back,lions see the need one too bad they did not see blount value that early in the season.

Though Mayhew wouldn't talk specifics about his team's off-season priorities -- "You guys have been watching football for a long time, I think. There's some things that jump out at you probably, but I wouldn't confirm or deny what our needs are," he said -- it's obvious the Lions have needs at linebacker, defensive back, No. 3 receiver and running back.

Dave Rayner (Michigan State, Oxford High) was signed and kicked well in the final eight games including two pressure field goals to win the game in overtime in Tampa and a 55-yarder in Sunday’s win over the Vikings.

Well enough to replace Hanson?

“I don’t know if I would say fight for his job. (Hanson) is probably a first-ballot Hall of Fame type of kicker,’’ Mayhew said. “He’s had a lot of success here, he had a tough run with injuries this season and we’re still sort of formulating our plans for the roster this year at a lot of different positions, but kicker is one of them.’’

http://www.theoaklandpress.com/articles ... viewmode=2



Read more: Lions general manager Martin Mayhew: 'I've got a lot of work to do' | freep.com | Detroit Free Press http://www.freep.com/article/20110106/S ... z1AFtadwM1

[cochiseuofm]

^

We just took a running back in the first round. Yes he was a bit of a disappointment because of his turf toes, but given how electric he was before those injuries, doesn't he at least deserve a shot? The Lions should look to maybe sign a bigger back like Michael Bush or maybe Brandon Jacobs if they come at the right price, not waste another high pick on a RB.

And no one saw Blount's value early on, that is why he was an undrafted rookie who got waived by his first team, Tennessee. Why would the Lions have claimed him when they had just drafted Best?

The offensive needs you are talking about are more luxuries than actual needs. What we need to continue the upward trend is to continue to improve the defense. I want no part of a 3rd WR or RB in the draft until we do that.

[TSE]

TSE--here's how watered down the "trading veterans away" market is: Denver will take a 2nd round pick for Kyle Orton, who thru 8 games was on pace for the best passing season in NFL history. San Diego couldn't get a 2nd for Marcus McNeill, an above-average left tackle. Kansas City is going to auction off Tyson Jackson, the #3 pick in the 2009 draft, and will be lucky to get a 3rd rounder for him--and it might be Detroit's.

Teams don't want to give up picks for vets, too expensive even if there's no way a 3rd round pick can come close to what Marcus McNeill can do. That market just isn't there. Corey Williams might bring back a 6th. Kevin Smith gets a 7th at best. Matt Stafford is untradeable even if the Lions agreed with you and wanted to deal him--who is going to trade for a guy that can't stay on the field? Would you? They'd be lucky to get a 3rd rounder if the market for Orton is a 2nd. I'm not sure they'd get a top 15 pick for Calvin Johnson.

I wouldn't want a 6th or any low round picks, when I say i want to trade Corey Williams I'm not looking to deal just him. I'm looking to deal him along with 5 or 6 other players and the combination of that value consolidated into one pick is all I'm looking to do. That could be done with small trades at a time such as Corey and one or more of our 3-7 rounders for a higher pick, and then again with Backus, and Vanen Bosch, and maybe some of our QBs or RBs or TEs or WRs. We have a lot of players that we can live without and should learn to live without that still have trade value and we need to move on from them sooner than later and try to get any headstart we can on finding those extra rookies to scoop up as payment for doing our homework in a timely and efficient manner.

Also Orton doesn't strike me as that great or desirable, I wouldn't mind having him on my team but I don't value QBs the way that some people do by just looking at stats or fantasy numbers, it's a complex thing to analyze and while Orton scored high on stats, he still isn't worth much to me. And SD could have traded McNeil if they wanted to, he's valuable and lots of teams would have wanted him, I don't know why they didn't trade him, maybe they didn't want to lose face with their fans and look like they traded a star for a paltry value, so none of that really matters to me in how I determine trading strategy cause all I know is if the Chargers called me about McNeil, and all they wanted was a 2nd rounder, then we would have had a deal seemingly. Our 2nd round pick being a high value they obviously would then have to figure a way to balance it out and then that's when we can suggest our high 3rd round pick (which would have seemed like it was much higher at the time than the 13 it is now) plus any of those players we talked about or other low picks from us. My hunch is that SD would have a problem with that cause I would think they would want more than a 2nd round pick anyhow, but either way it sounds like there's a lot of wiggle room to fleece SD out of McNeil if that was their price. They didn't want to trade him, they just wanted to position themselves to try and get the long-term deal they wanted and they apparently got what they wanted.

[TSE]

^

And no one saw Blount's value early on, that is why he was an undrafted rookie who got waived by his first team, Tennessee. Why would the Lions have claimed him when they had just drafted Best?

BULL....LONY

He was only a UDFA because NFL teams are run incompetently. I was screaming off the top of my lungs about drafting Blount in the 7th, I would never have let that kid go undrafted, I was extremely high on him ever since that fight. When I learned more about him and saw that episode and then saw the tape of his highlights after learning more about him I wanted him bad cause I knew he was a prospect to be potentially had for super cheap in the draft, and he was mine cause every other team foolishly passed. Ironically I would have actually got Blount for a better deal if I was the Asst and not the GM, cause as the GM I would have assumed he would have been drafted and had to use one of my last picks on him instead of finding out I could have had him for free! And he would have chose as as a UDFA cause I would never have drafted Best and Morris and Brown and Smith might have all been traded before the draft started as well. We might as well have had 0 RBs on the roster by the time the draft ended so we would have totally appealed to him to start off with us. I would have Danny Woodhead too, that one was a sure thing as well, and trading all of our other RBs would have opened him up possibly quicker to us as well as even more RBs like this now that the RB market is flooded by us giving away all of ours. We would have had three sweet young RBs to look forward to right now ALL for free, Blount, Woodhead, and somebody else maybe even better than those guys, who knows. There were lots of value RBs passing hands and especially if we put ours in play to accelerate that.

[TSE]

i told everyone the lions are looking for a 3rd reciever and now need a running back,lions see the need one too bad they did not see blount value that early in the season.

Though Mayhew wouldn't talk specifics about his team's off-season priorities -- "You guys have been watching football for a long time, I think. There's some things that jump out at you probably, but I wouldn't confirm or deny what our needs are," he said -- it's obvious the Lions have needs at linebacker, defensive back, No. 3 receiver and running back.

Dave Rayner (Michigan State, Oxford High) was signed and kicked well in the final eight games including two pressure field goals to win the game in overtime in Tampa and a 55-yarder in Sunday’s win over the Vikings.

Well enough to replace Hanson?

“I don’t know if I would say fight for his job. (Hanson) is probably a first-ballot Hall of Fame type of kicker,’’ Mayhew said. “He’s had a lot of success here, he had a tough run with injuries this season and we’re still sort of formulating our plans for the roster this year at a lot of different positions, but kicker is one of them.’’

http://www.theoaklandpress.com/articles ... viewmode=2



Read more: Lions general manager Martin Mayhew: 'I've got a lot of work to do' | freep.com | Detroit Free Press http://www.freep.com/article/20110106/S ... z1AFtadwM1

Yeah I really don't like the comments. I want to know from Mayhew why he thinks we need a RB and why he didn't go after guys like Blount and Woodhead, and why he chose to stick with Smith/Brown/Morris and Best? I'd really like to hear his analysis on that, because I can't create a story in my mind how that makes sense, so it's very uncomfortable not knowing. It's like the girl that breaks up with you but doesn't give you a reason, ok fine, but at least provide some closure and explanation for the record, what's fair is fair.

Why even mention a low profile position like a #3 WR? How much does he plan to invest into that need? More than a 5th round pick? Then why wouldnt he pay a 5th rounder for Santonio Holmes, is he not good enough to be a #3 or is a 5th round pick too much for the WR3 position? Something doesn't add up there for me. Why was Derrick Williams not given ample playing time then? Why did we have some no-namer Clark out there on the last game taking all these reps then? Why do we have to go into next season with that as a need when we just had 16 games to sort that out and find it in house or off the waiver wire? We made no attempts that I saw to sort this issue out. When did he realize that it was a need, immediately after the final game? I don't get where this list of needs comes from and why he has such a big list of needs yet didn't offer an explanation as to why he didn't address them this past offseason then or during the offseason? What the heck?

And really, he's looking into our kicker position? Oh joy.

[cochiseuofm]

If you can find me a post by you about wanting the Lions to draft Blount, I'll believe you. Otherwise I'm going to call baloney on you claiming you knew all of the breakout RBs of the year were going to be awesome before the season.

Anyways, looks like Andrew Luck is staying in school for another year. That is going to affect the mocks quite a bit...

[TSE]

I haven't posted as much on this site as I do on another site, which I don't know what the rules are for providing links to that and such. In there you can see a lot more of my whining than you can find on here that's for sure. I'm 100% positive that there are lots of posts on Blount cause that was the first thing I did when I found out he was released was started posting and talking about it. I would guess that I also mentioned it on this site too, but I can't remember how many sites I may have posted about that particular player at that particular time. I'm not a liar and you can believe what you want, but if you choose not to believe me then you will be believing in something that is wrong and incorrect whether I prove it to you or not. Why do you care if I talked about it anyhow? I posted on the internet in various places about Blount on the day he got in that famous fight, I was already making LONG posts about him and how that's a guy on my radar because of how good I thought he was and the fact that I predicted his stock would be super cheap below what he's worth as a player. I marked him down way back then and clearly no team in the NFL would have challenged me to get him so he was mine at my leisure and I was clear about my stance on him for well over a year now. Besides, being right or wrong about one player isn't the end all be all, so what are you trying to prove and why are you trying to prove anything? Everything I post on here is honest, and it's my opinion, take it for it's worth and choose to agree or not, but trying to get to the truth behind a person over the Internet is a waste of time and a futile experience, especially if you are trying to investigate me under the premise that I'm not truthful, I just don't have the time or care to participate in something like that especially over an Internet forum. If you could provide a reason though why I should care to prove myself to you on this or whatever, then clearly state what that is and what your purpose behind it is and then maybe I'll dig around and humor you.

And I have correctly predicted more breakout players (and the highest % as well) to strategically acquire than any other person on the planet has that I am aware of. That's why I am so opinionated about this stuff because I feel I'm very good at figuring out where the logical gambles are. And the game of football and the arena of games and strategy along with business and politics are just the areas of my greatest personal expertise and knowledge. I can go on all day about hockey prospects too and offer you all kinds of intelligent opinions, but I'm not a master of understanding and breaking down the players and strategies of hockey as I am at football, that's my #1 game of games, or close to being tied with baseball. I know more about baseball and football strategy and general business and politics, those are the things that interest me the most that I spend my time on learning and trying to figure out. If I could do it all over and have spent all that time trying to find the cure for cancer that would have been really nice to contribute further towards that goal, but I chose what I chose and now that's what I do best which is to offer opinions in those areas, it's just who I am at this point and I like to stick with what I know best.

There's no such thing as knowing 100% of the time who is going to turn out to be a great player or not, my philosophy has always been that through a brilliant scouting eye and sound strategic planning that you can creatively and intelligently protect yourself from making bad choices and disqualify many of them in advance; leaving yourself a greater chance of pulling a winning decision from the remaining pool of choices. Every player has an upside of potential and cost (pros and cons), and I am able to find more breakout players that other teams mistakenly pass over not because I'm a god at picking players and getting lucky, but rather I stack the deck in my favor by doing a better job of favoring players that have high payouts for low costs and vice-versa and simply appreciating the relationship between the 2 categories to make sensible decisions. The 32 GMs of the NFL are all coming up short in varying degrees from extremely terrible to modestly terrible at making sensible decisions as it relates to this perspective, thus they are statistically crippled at trying to beat me on scooping up good pickups whether it's a waiver add or a trade acquisition etc.

[ajaX82]

Luck returning to school....wow. It doesn't shock me and i can certainly respect the kid wanting to finish his degree but man, thats a lot of money on the table.

Really screws Carolina and kind of throws the draft into a flux. Without Luck, this draft looks pretty awful really. Guess it was a good year to not have a super high pick

[TSE]

Yeah and who knows if some crazy new rookie deal comes to fruition after the lockout when all rookies get dirt cheap contracts. Luck could then be drafted first by Carolina in that year and have to play for peanuts like rookies deserve to be paid. He's nuts, but I guess money just isn't that interesting or important to him, and to end this season ranked #5 w/only 1 loss and ending on a big win does have to add some appeal for him to shoot for the glory of a possible national championship. And since he will be just about the best player returning, that has to make Stanford a hot topic with a great chance next season to do something historically significant. The man's on a mission right now instead of a shopping spree; he's definitely taking the more interesting and challenging choice instead of the easy path.

[cochiseuofm]

I'll tell you what TSE, this April you post here exactly who you think is going to breakout, 4th round picks or later only, and if you are as accurate as you claim, I will give you props for it. But my opinion is hindsight is always 20/20.

[Piston Pete]

Luck returning to school....wow. It doesn't shock me and i can certainly respect the kid wanting to finish his degree but man, thats a lot of money on the table.

Really screws Carolina and kind of throws the draft into a flux. Without Luck, this draft looks pretty awful really. Guess it was a good year to not have a super high pick

Don't get it on multiple levels

1) He's already the consensus #1 pick
2) You'd think he'd want to get drafted BEFORE the NFL switches to a rookie-pay-scale system
3) Why go back and risk injury?
4) Another year at Stanford is one more year of his NFL career he won't have (salary-wise, and NFL-longevity-wise).

[TSE]

I'll tell you what TSE, this April you post here exactly who you think is going to breakout, 4th round picks or later only, and if you are as accurate as you claim, I will give you props for it. But my opinion is hindsight is always 20/20.

It doesn't work like that, for one, to pick players requires a lot of time and effort to study them. I can pick players without studying any of them, but I'm going to do better based upon how much time and effort I put into it. If I was the GM of the team I would be doing that full-time, but since I'm not I don't spend time studying college players like that. I don't have the resources or time to pull out a list for you to judge me on as it would be a compromised list. And I'm not going to bring a compromised list to trying to prove myself to somebody over the Internet. I don't know how you evaluate players or draft strategies but I don't number guys 1-1000 and have them in specific exact order, rather it's about the logic of how and when you pick players, and we can argue about specific players all day, if the 10th best RB on the list I think has a 2% better chance to pan out then the next guy on the list, then there's no way that my speaking about it is going to prove that case one way or another. And we don't have enough time or sample of data or players to analyze a one time small group of players to determine how accurate those few percentage points of prediction value pan out. If you want to know how good I am at picking players, then I would need to give you my list of favorite players and value players for the last 10 years and you would have to take my word for it that I didn't cheat, which you won't, so it won't matter. Either way it's all a big waste of time to prove myself to you and I don't even know who you are. Why would I want to do that? I already proved this to myself because I was there for the last 10 years and I'm on the same page with myself and convinced that my football opinions are better than any other person I have ever met. I'm already there, no need for me to go further, I get what I get and am content with what I know whether I have your approval or not.

[cochiseuofm]

I don't want you to rank every player in this draft or do anything that would require close to that much effort. You said you saw LaGarrette Blount and Danny Woodhead coming, before they actually did well. So all I'm saying is if you see anyone like that, post about it then. I don't care if your list of breakout players is just one guy or five.

And I don't care either way, because I don't know you. If you don't care what I think, then just don't take offense to when I don't believe your claims.