GAME THREAD: PACKERS at EAGLES - 3:30 - FOX

[MickeyDavis]

From the JS

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH

INVITING TARGET: At midweek, coach Andy Reid announced that he was going back to Dimitri Patterson at RC after benching him at halftime in Week 15 against Minnesota for poor play. "He's a mess," an executive in personnel for a recent Eagles opponent said. "Lot of breakdowns. Just lacks speed. Can't recover. Best underneath in zones. He's a liability on an island. Plays very soft. When they're in single high coverage he gives up a lot of underneath routes. He will bite on double moves." Another scout called him a "terrible" player that the Vikings abused. "He is quick to support the run and he has four interceptions," a third scout said. "If you were playing a true Cover 2 where you jam the receiver and support the run and he has a short zone, he'd be a productive starter. But athletically, at the top of routes, he doesn't match up with elite speed."

ON THE OTHER SIDE: LC Asante Samuel, 30, is one of the most dynamic interceptors in the NFL. "Plays the game kind of his own way," one scout said. "The only reason he lets go of his man is if he sees something and knows where the quarterback is throwing the ball. He guesses right 8½ times out of 10." Samuel has seven picks this season, 42 in the regular season and seven more in 18 playoff games for New England (14) and Philadelphia (four). "He baits quarterbacks," another scout said. "He plays with big cushion, then will jump it. Very good anticipation. Great ball skills. Doesn't have great speed, but he is so instinctive. He's got great mirror skills. He's just not a physical guy. In the run game, he doesn't want any part of it."

THE MAIN COURSE: Can Michael Vick be contained? "He's been stopped. . . by the Vikings," one scout said. "He should have thrown five picks against them. They dropped three. You hit him early, get him thinking, get him looking at the rush, force him into negative plays. He should be (healthy), but if you start hitting him, who knows? I think he's banged up pretty good. I think he's lost a little confidence. You've got to pressure him from different angles and you have to disguise. The Eagles are going to have that (slot blitzes) blocked. You've got to change it up a little bit. I'm sure Dom (Capers) knows that." Added another scout: "I don't think he sees the blitzes quick or reads coverages fast. I know he's gotten better and Andy's done a good job. Vick is banged up already. I think the Packers can get after him." Offered a third personnel man: "(Dom) Capers can contain him, but it might take an extra person to do it. Now you've got to worry about the hole you leave in your zone or man coverage on the tight end. Or the back chipping and getting out and creating big plays. You've got to match him athletically on the edge and you've got to be disciplined. The difference now is he can make a lot of throws that he didn't make before."

SPEED DEMON: WR DeSean Jackson didn't do much of anything in the opener against Sam Shields and Tramon Williams, who played one of his best games. "Tramon Williams doesn't run as well as he does," one scout said. "Neither does (Charles) Woodson. They can attempt to be physical, but sometimes you're going to reach and miss." Another scout was asked if he'd take Jackson or Greg Jennings. "If you need a big clutch throw inside, Greg Jennings will make a play. DeSean, who knows what that fool is going to do? Jackson doesn't give full effort all the time. Inside, you're not going to get much from him. You get him on the outside, he can make a guy miss and go. He can catch it deep." Added a third scout: "He's the most explosive and fastest big-play guy. He is big time. Will dog it some. Not very strong. You need to be physical with him."

CHANGING OF THE GUARD: The Eagles suffered a tragic loss before the 2009 season when Jim Johnson, their defensive coordinator from 1999-2008, died of cancer. He was replaced by Sean McDermott, one of his assistants for nine years. "Obviously, Jim Johnson was a legend," an executive with an NFC East team said. "Sean is still feeling his way a little bit. If you're going into this game with Jim Johnson and the way they've been giving up a ton of points, you're feeling a lot better than with Sean. They've got young guys on defense and they're all little. The safeties are little. (Kurt) Coleman is corner size. Samuel is little. The (linebackers) are little. (Mike) Patterson's little."

Bob McGinn

JOURNAL SENTINEL STAFF VIEWS

BOB McGINN: The best guess is a blowout. Either Aaron Rodgers and his swift receivers have a field day against what seems to be a porous defense, or Dom Capers goes down in flames for the second January in a row against another big-play offense. The Philly crowd can help and hurt the Eagles. The start will be crucial.

TOM SILVERSTEIN: It's rare that you have this much conviction when it comes to a playoff game, but the Eagles are too banged up, too soft on defense and too ripe for the picking for me not to take the Packers. This shouldn't be a game unless the Packers let it be one. Packers 30, Eagles 16.

MICHAEL HUNT: Lincoln Financial Field is one of the nastiest, loudest, meanest and most hostile venues in the NFL. If the Packers jump on the Eagles early, that will first quiet the joint and then cause the fans to turn on their own. So, a quick start is imperative. Packers 21, Eagles 17.

GARY D'AMATO: Both teams should be able to score points. The Eagles have big-time, big-play capability, and Aaron Rodgers will be able to throw the ball against a patchwork secondary. I see the Packers a little better equipped to win a shootout, even on the road. Packers 34, Eagles 31.

LORI NICKEL: If the weather is bad or windy, what if it comes down to the scrambling QBs? Aaron Rodgers has 64 carries for 356 yards, 4 TDs and a 5.6 yard per run average. Michael Vick has 100 carries for 676 yards, 9 TDs and a 6.8 average. Green Bay's defense will have to be improved to stop Vick. Packers 24, Eagles 20.

PACKERS INJURY REPORT

Out: S Atari Bigby (groin), RB Korey Hall (knee), LB Frank Zombo (knee).

Questionable: DE Cullen Jenkins (calf).

Probable: T Chad Clifton (knees), S Nick Collins (ribs), LB Clay Matthews (shin), DE Ryan Pickett (ankle), CB Charles Woodson (toe).

EAGLES INJURY REPORT

Questionable: LB Stewart Bradley (elbow), G Todd Herremans (calf), G Max Jean-Gilles (ankle).

Probable: G Nick Cole (knee), TE Clay Harbor (abdomen), T Winston Justice (knee), DT Trevor Laws (shoulder), CB Asante Samuel (knee), QB Michael Vick (quadriceps).

[Aaron It Out]

So pumped. Nothing is better than Packers playoff football.

[Wilford Brimley]

So nervous. Nothing is better than Packers playoff football.

Fixed.

[Wilford Brimley]

Some interesting stats:

In the past four seasons, McCarthy’s Packers are tied with the New York Giants for the best regular-season record in the NFC at 40-24.

Only the Packers and Philadelphia Eagles have qualified for the NFC playoffs three times in the past four years.

The Packers have not trailed by more than one score all year.

Yards per pass attempt differential.

Given that SD missed the playoffs - the Packers have the highest of the playoff teams (i.e., we should be SuperBowl bound).

http://mule.he.net/~budsport/pub/killer.php

GB 1.9
PIT 1.7
NE .9
NO .7
IND .7
BAL .6
PHI .6
NYJ .4
CHI .1
KC .1
ATL -.2
SEA -.9

Packer's expected W/L record going by Point Differential is 12-4

Pack held teams to 7 or fewer points 6 times. They showed a chart and the last teams to do that were in the 1960's.

[jakecronus8]

I think the Eagles win. All the injuries and close losses just keep making me think this just isn't our year. Praying that I'm wrong

[MickeyDavis]

Philly Daily News staff predictions:

LES BOWEN

I am always uncomfortable when I get the feeling that I'm underrating Andy Reid. So I'm uncomfortable here. But I look at the Eagles' defense and I look at what Aaron Rodgers has done lately, and it doesn't add up to forecasting an Eagles victory.

Sure, there are ways the Eagles can win. Get a lead, run the ball, get the crowd whipped up, Asante Samuel picks a pass. Definitely could happen. Will it happen?

It's easier for me to envision Rodgers throwing bombs and Clay Matthews stripping a fumble from Michael Vick, with Vick down a couple of touchdowns and trying to do too much on his own.

If I'm wrong, then the time is Andy's, and probably, Sean McDermott's, which would be good, because he's a decent guy who hasn't been able to prove definitively that he's up to running the defense. Beating Rodgers, unless it's 42-40, might do that for him.

But they'll all have to show me.

Packers 28, Eagles 27

PAUL DOMOWITCH

If the Eagles were playing any of the other four NFC playoff teams Sunday at the Linc - the Falcons, the Bears, the Saints or the Seahawks - I probably would pick them to win. But they're not. They're playing the Packers, who, despite their No. 6 seeding, probably are the best team in the conference right now and most certainly are the worst possible matchup right now for the Eagles.

I think Michael Vick and the Eagles' offense will have their hands full dealing with Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson and the Packers blitz.

And I think the Eagles defense, with all of its injuries, with all of its inexperience, will get sliced and diced by Aaron Rodgers and his deep, talented stable of wide receivers.

The Eagles can win Sunday. But it would take a lot of things going right. Finding a way to pressure Rodgers. Getting a game-of-his-life performance from much-maligned cornerback Dimitri Patterson.

Ending their incredible generosity in the red zone. Winning the turnover battle. Big games from DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. A bigger game from Vick.

It's been a good season, but I think it ends Sunday.

Packers 31, Eagles 23

Other selections:

Ed Barkowitz: Packers 20, Eagles 17

Bill Conlin: Packers, 27, Eagles 24

Sam Donnellon: Packers 31, Eagles 21

Marcus Hayes: Eagles 27, Packers 20

Rich Hofmann: Packers 30, Eagles 24

John Smallwood: Eagles 28, Packers 24

[MickeyDavis]

Keys to the game from the Philly media:

WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL

1. I think Mike McGlynn needs to turn in one of his best performances of the season. It's not unusual for the Packers to line up six defenders in the box, and only have one or two linemen with their hands on the ground. The others stand up - some rush, others drop back. It's really a great disguise and gave the Eagles fits in the first meeting. If the Birds are not ready this time around, Michael Vick is going to get crushed. While protection has to be a team effort, McGlynn is responsible for making the line calls. Clay Matthews lined up primarily on the left side last week, although the Packers did move him around a little. I wonder if that will change facing a left-handed quarterback.

2. This matchup really calls for LeSean McCoy to have a big game - both as a runner and a receiver. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry and should be relatively fresh. Of the league's top 15 rushers, none had fewer regular-season carries than McCoy (207).

The Packers allowed opponents to average 4.7 yards per carry in the regular season; only the Bills allowed a higher number. Bears running back Matt Forte averaged 6.1 yards per carry against Green Bay in Week 17. One of those runs was a 25-yarder down the left sideline. The other was a 21-yard run to the left. In the regular season, McCoy averaged 8.3 yards per carry when he got to the left sideline and 5.8 yards per carry to the left side. Todd Herremans is questionable, but told reporters he will play. The Eagles can really have a lot of success running McCoy behind Herremans and Jason Peters.

3. I could probably write 1,000 words on the Packers' blitz, but I'll focus on a few key points. Let's start with Charles Woodson. Expect him to come from the slot constantly. Woodson had a sack and batted down a Jay Cutler pass while blitzing last week. Against Minnesota, Vick had a 27.43 QB rating when the Vikings blitzed a defensive back. He was also sacked four times on those plays. There's no question this has been a focus of the Eagles in the last couple weeks at practice, but they'll have to show they've improved significantly.

Interesting note from Football Outsiders. Vick averaged just 2.5 yards per play when facing a six-man pass rush. But the Packers rushed six guys only 14 times all season. In other words, unless Green Bay changes what it's done all season (which is possible), the blitzes Vick faces will be based more on confusing the Eagles' blockers than simply outnumbering them.

4. So the obvious question is: How do the Eagles beat the blitz? We all know about DeSean Jackson's numbers and how they've correlated to the team's success. In wins, he's averaged 26.4 yards per catch and had six touchdowns. In losses, he averaged 9.7 yards per catch and went without a score. But I'm not sure the Eagles are going to be able to get him the ball downfield. Opposing quarterbacks put up a 67.2 QB rating against Green Bay - a league-best. And the Packers allowed just 6.5 yards per attempt.

Against Chicago, Cutler worked the middle of the field (to varying degrees of success). Guess who was the Bears' most-targeted receiver? Rashied Davis. Why is that significant? Because that's who Woodson was initially covering when he came on those slot blitzes. Today, that player will be Jason Avant. Don't be surprised if Vick looks in his direction quite a bit. McCoy and Brent Celek could be big also. Chicago's Forte and tight end Greg Olsen were targeted 13 times last week, and Cutler completed 12 of those passes for 92 yards. Celek finished the regular season with his two highest yardage totals in Weeks 16 and 17. And McCoy led all running backs with 78 receptions.

5. We've heard a lot about Woodson and Matthews this week, but the Packers really have a lot of talent all over the field on defense. One guy to keep an eye on is No. 93 - Erik Walden. He had 11 tackles and two sacks last week. But he was also blocked effectively on Forte's 21-yard and 25-yard runs. One sack from Walden came on a delay. He initially dropped back and then rushed up the middle untouched. That delayed blitz gave the Eagles trouble in Week 1.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

1. If there's one point of optimism for the Eagles' defense, it's that Green Bay is one-dimensional. The Packers averaged 3.8 yards per carry in the regular season. Only four teams had a worse average. Green Bay had a total of three rushes for 20 yards or more in the regular season - dead-last in the NFL.

Brandon Jackson is their primary running back, but we'll probably also see No. 44 - James Starks. On short yardage, it'll be fullback John Kuhn. On 3rd down and less than 3, Kuhn converted 10 of 12 opportunities into first downs. While Green Bay primarily attacks with its four wide receivers, running backs were targeted six times in the passing game last week.

2. Speaking of those receivers, No. 85 Greg Jennings is the one to key in on. He finished fourth in the league with 1,265 yards and averaged 16.64 yards per catch (ninth in the league). Only four wide receivers had more YAC than Jennings this season. And his 16 catches of 25 yards or more were third-most in the NFL. Jennings lines up on both the left side and the right side. On the season, he had 432 yards receiving down the left sideline and 460 yards receiving down the right sideline. Given the way the Eagles play defense, look for Jennings to line up on the left side opposite Dimitri Patterson more than usual.

As for the Packers' other receivers, look for wide receiver screens to Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson. I noticed at least three of those last week. Also, the Eagles will have to account for Nelson when they blitz Joselio Hanson from the slot, which they're known to do. Nelson burned the Bears for 25 yards on a completion last week when Chicago blitzed its slot corner. Driver fumbled last week and dropped seven balls in the regular season, the most of any Green Bay receiver. As a team, I counted at least three or four drops by the Packers against the Bears.

3. Another great stat from Football Outsiders: The Eagles allowed only 3.0 yards per attempt when they blitzed six. But Aaron Rodgers averaged 9.29 yards per attempt against six-man rushes. Even though the Packers only scored 10 points last week, he hit on four passes of 20 yards or more - two to Jennings, one to Nelson and one to Driver. The 46-yard completion to Jennings came off play-action. He threw three interceptions in his final eight games. Against Chicago, the pick came when the Bears sent six, and he rolled to his left.

4. Don't understimate Rodgers' mobility either. Only Vick and Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman ran for more yards among quarterbacks. Rodgers picked up 22 first downs with his legs this season. This really stood out last week. Rodgers was the team's leading rusher against Chicago, carrying seven times for 21 yards. He is not afraid to tuck the ball and take off if he sees an opening or if receivers are covered.

5. And finally, the Packers' offensive line. Green Bay allowed 38 sacks (11th-most) and 67 QB hits (21st-most). Football Outsiders ranks the Packers' line No. 21 in terms of pass protection; the Eagles are 28th. The weak link might be right tackle rookie Bryan Bulaga. He committed all four of the team's penalties last week against Chicago. It'll be mostly Juqua Parker lined up agianst Bulaga, but don't be surprised if Sean McDermott sends the blitz from that side. Darryl Tapp will spell Parker at times also. The Eagles need a big effort from that side to pressure Rodgers effectively.

[MickeyDavis]

Denver wants to interview Capers. I think he's a longshot given that he's 60. I hope he stays.

[Wilford Brimley]

**** Denver.

[Wilford Brimley]

This always gets me excited for a game.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kl4omgCgDwI[/youtube]

[Flames24Rulz]

Nervous as **** and there's still about 4 1/2 hours until kickoff. Just win, damn it.

[Mags FTW]

Unfortunately I think McCoy and Vick run all over us. 27-17 Philly.

[ReasonablySober]

I don't have a feeling one way or another about the game. I just can't bring myself to expect victories from this team.

[Turk Nowitzki]

This is an impossible game to predict. I honestly won't be surprised if we blow them out, they blow us out, or it's a super close game. If I had to pick, I'd go with the Eagles simply because of homefield.

[rilamann]

This is still a hard game to pick for me too.

I really want to pick the Packers but I just can't bring myself to do it.

Clay Matthews flashes before my eyes and a voice tells me to pick Packers,but then MM flashes before my eyes and a more logical voice tells me I better not.

In the Packers we're talking about a team that should be the #1 or #2 seed but isn't because they couldn't beat teams like the Lions,Redskins and Dolphins.

The Packers probably should beat the Eagles just like they probably should have beat the Lions,Redskins & Dolphins, but they're the Packers and it's the playoffs and when I stop and think about it,I realize that winning games like this just isn't in the Packers DNA.

I'm pretty confident based on the history of this Packers team that if the Eagles don't beat us,we will beat ourselves.

There's really no reason to think otherwise.

Sure the our last 2 regular season games were big,but those where at Lambeau and as mentioned were REGULAR SEASON games.And the Bears & Giants aren't as good as the Eagles,at least not in Philly.

I'm going to go Eagles 27 Packers 16.

Points left on the board and missed opportunities will be the talk after the game for the Packers,yea I know ''way to out on a limb there''.

I'm praying for the Packers to prove me wrong.

[an_also]

Every one is on the packers predictions wise. I dont know what to think.

[A Diddy2231]

Mickey, I want you to do a shot of tequila every time the Packers score lol

[Simulack]

Clay Matthews flashes before my eyes and a voice tells me to pick Packers,but then MM flashes before my eyes and a more logical voice tells me I better not.

In the Packers we're talking about a team that should be the #1 or #2 seed but isn't because they couldn't beat teams like the Lions,Redskins and Dolphins.

The only reason the Eagles are playing us is because they couldn't beat a Vikings team playing its 3rd string QB in the second to last game of the season (when they knew exactly what was at stake). Otherwise they are likely the #2 seed and not even playing this week.

Both the Eagles and the Packers finished 10-6. Here are the combined win/loss records of the teams each lost to:

Eagles: 45-51 (46.9%)
Packers: 57-39 (59.4%)

The Eagles lost to four teams with records below .500; the Packers three. The Eagles losses were to significantly worse competition than the Packers.

If losing to inferior teams in an indictment of our coach, how bad is Andy Reid? If losing to inferior teams is an indication of a major fault with a team, the stats actually show it is the Eagles who should be worried.

[UWM_Brew_Buck]

Every one is on the packers predictions wise. I dont know what to think.

I don't like seeing it when everyone in the media picks them. But for some reason in the gambling world of America thinks that the Eagles will win, the point spread went from -3 to -2.5 which is pretty significant.

[Bucksfans1and2]

Every one is on the packers predictions wise. I dont know what to think.

I don't like seeing it when everyone in the media picks them. But for some reason in the gambling world of America thinks that the Eagles will win, the point spread went from -3 to -2.5 which is pretty significant.

I know who I have faith in, and it's not BSPN