Mock Draft 4.0

[lpsevier]

LB and CB for the Falcons?
You got some splaining to do, I would have told you those were our LEAST positions of need.

Dimitroff is the kind of GM that is drafting for 2-3 years down the road, not necessarily the most immediate need. IMO the biggest need is TE to replace Gonzo, but it's a wretched year to need a TE. I know they're looking at OL depth/developmental starters but I suspect they'll wait on those for later, better value. I think they're a great candidate to trade backwards and pick up extra late picks, but this mock format doesn't allow that sort of forecasting. Next mock will have commentary and address stuff like that. FYI I know they've already contacted Asomugha's agent, unofficially of course...

Ok so we'll take Kyle Rudolph and one Mike Wallace type receiver and some depth everywhere else

[Roger Murdock]

Thanks for the latest mock, buddy.

Who do you think are the best West Coast Offense QB's in this draft, Ic?

Short-area accuracy is not a strong suit for any of the upper tier guys. Jake Locker completed less than 45% of his passes under 10 yards. Kaepernick needs some grooming and a quicker release but he's probably the best rhythm passer. Pat Devlin fits the bill of WC offense but he doesn't have the gun to challenge deep. Mallett is the anti-WC QB. I think Newton has potential here too but he'll have a learning curve and he fits better in a system like Pittsburgh's. Later rounds I think Ricky Stanzi can handle it. Big Senior Bowl week for him.

Will the Saints be forced into taking a LB now after Marshawn Lynch basically put our LB situation on display?

I strongly believe they were leaning that direction anyways, but the awful tackling the last couple of weeks has to convince them of it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they went LB/OL/DL in their first 4-5 picks. They need to turn over their entire LB corps over the next 2 seasons because I doubt they pay Vilma what he'll ask for.

LB and CB for the Falcons?
You got some splaining to do, I would have told you those were our LEAST positions of need.

Dimitroff is the kind of GM that is drafting for 2-3 years down the road, not necessarily the most immediate need. IMO the biggest need is TE to replace Gonzo, but it's a wretched year to need a TE. I know they're looking at OL depth/developmental starters but I suspect they'll wait on those for later, better value. I think they're a great candidate to trade backwards and pick up extra late picks, but this mock format doesn't allow that sort of forecasting. Next mock will have commentary and address stuff like that. FYI I know they've already contacted Asomugha's agent, unofficially of course...

Just in general: I really don't get the glowing love for Marcell Dareus. He's a lot like Glenn Dorsey IMO, a 3-4 DE/4-3 DT tweener. Dareus is probably better against the run at the same point, and his experience in a 30 front helps him, but they are similar players: quick big men that like to line up in the B gap and crash outside to get a pass rush. Everyone immediately thinks of the shot he put on Colt McCoy but nobody bothers to notice that he gets too far upfield too much and doesn't get off blocks that well. He's a 1st rounder, but I have a real hard time seeing him go top 10 with his position and productivity. If he went to Southern Miss or Arizona people wouldn't think so highly of him. Most of his sacks he got came as the second guy in, reacting off the rush of others. That's an important NFL skill but if you're going top 10 you need to generate more on your own. Or else you're Tyson Jackson and about to get sent packing two years after going #3 overall. Dareus is a good example of someone the public likes better than the scouting community, a la Rey Maualuga.

This is how I feel. I'm no pro scout or anything but watching Alabama you don't really notice Dareus do anything that great. Every scouting place I've seen has him as a top 5 pick but watching Alabama I either have no idea what to look for or hes just not that good.

Fairly on the other hand catches my eye at least a dozen times a game with a great play. He seems to have a much more significant impact on games and has been the best player I've seen this year.

The QBs in this draft are terrible by the way. I know we all know that but I just wanted to say it again. I don't think any of them should be considered in the top 10, but I'm sure at least one or two will be picked by then.

[Icness]

Having lunch with a notable draftnik today as he changes planes in Houston. Should have a better idea about a few players afterwards.

[Rafael122]

Jake Locker...ugh, I think I'm gonna be sick.

[Icness]

Summary of lunch:
--after last night Nick Fairley put himself in the mix for #1 overall. Curiously, Carolina had nobody at the game, but it's because they are interviewing coaches and had someone at almost every Auburn game and 6 or 7 Oregon games already. This person strongly believes it's either Bowers or Fairley #1. I agree but I wouldn't rule out Cam Newton, but only if there's a trade.

--Cam Newton is "100% absolutely" a top 10 pick if he can handle the scrutiny in interviews about his background. But, and I've heard this elsewhere too, people are going to come at him hard about what happened at Florida. We talked about Newton from purely a QB on the field perspective and he favorably compares to Big Ben when he came out. Biggest critiques: he overstrides when throwing on the move and it ruins his accuracy, his ball security is a problem when he runs, and he doesn't have a great feel for timing on deep routes...all of which are readily coachable and tend to improve with experience.

--This person is not a Jake Locker fan either and he told me the $.10 I wrote on Locker where I slammed McShay for pumping up Locker as the #1 overall pick when he slammed Tebow last year, yet Tebow was across the board a better QB other than aesthetics, the piece was incredibly well-received by NFL people. He told me it was read aloud at a staff meeting where he works and had people there re-evaluate Locker with more critical eyes. Nice to know I got some positive attention

--Guys perceived to be falling right now: Prince Amukamara, Adrian Clayborn, Gabe Carimi, Julio Jones, Greg Jones. Prince is still a top 20 pick, Julio Jones is still a 1st rounder, the others are not unless they have great workout seasons. Not sure I agree on either Julio or Clayborn.

--WVU safety Robert Sands has potential to be this year's Tyson Alualu, a guy that comes from out of nowhere to make the top 15.

--We both like the Brady Hoke hiring at Michigan.
--Neither of us believes Ryan Mallett is a 1st rounder. This person has him with a 4th round grade. I'm not that low on him but it's scary how poorly he reads defenses.

[RiotPunch]

Kudos on giving Jimmy Smith the credit he deserves. As a Packer fan I cringe at the thought of a Phil Taylor/Ryan Williams haul though...

[Smooth32]

As a Browns fan, I'd have a hard time passing on BOTH Dareus and Peterson for Green, even though we really need a WR and he's a very good one. I don't think he's BPA there.

[Icness]

Kudos on giving Jimmy Smith the credit he deserves. As a Packer fan I cringe at the thought of a Phil Taylor/Ryan Williams haul though...

Y'all need to watch some Baylor games. Taylor = Pat Williams, potentially. At worst he's a quicker Gilbert Brown with stamina. Lets Raji move to end in the base and slide inside for nickel/dime stuff, keeps him fresher and upgrades the run defense. If Taylor went to Wisconsin or USC you'd think he was an exceptional value in the late 20s.

[94feet]

Jeff Maehl, WR on Oregon caught my eye in the Championship, I know he is a slot in the League and his measurables aren't all that great, be he seems to very smart and take pride in his craft ala A.Collie and Blair White. What round would you say Maehl get selected? If at all?

[Icness]

Jeff Maehl, WR on Oregon caught my eye in the Championship, I know he is a slot in the League and his measurables aren't all that great, be he seems to very smart and take pride in his craft ala A.Collie and Blair White. What round would you say Maehl get selected? If at all?

I think he's a 5th/6th rounder. He fits real well as a slot receiver in a 3-wide or 4-wide set, like Davone Bess. Maehl is faster than people give him credit for being too and he's an exceptional downfield blocker.

[94feet]

Thanks for the reply.

[Celtics_Champs]

Well I really should stop looking at all Mock Drafts because the whole NFL was fooled when BB took McCourty, who was a "gunner" and he turns out to be one of the best corners.

But, I can't help myself...

Kerrigan is that guy, who every year is described as a young Mike Vrabel. One year it was Connor Barwin, another year it was someone else. Yet every year BB doesn't take them. I wouldn't mind Kerrigan though.

I see this mock has us taking a RB in the first round. Then I see other mocks drafting Ingram even. I think the last thing BB does is draft a RB. He's very high on Law-Firm, as he should be. He's a hard runner who ran for 1,000 yards. Even if Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk all retire/leave and we only have two backs BJGE and Woodhead, I still don't see them drafting a RB. I think they'd rather go the veteran FA route.

I would love to see them land a stud D-lineman.

[Icness]

I think it's far more likely that the Pats deal the #33 pick for a veteran RB than they actually use the pick on an RB, or anything for that matter. Think Carolina wouldn't give up Deangelo Williams to get that pick back

Next mock is under initial construction. 3 rounds, full commentary on 1st round. The top 10 is almost completely different from this one. Should be up Friday or Saturday if I get enough time tomorrow to really flesh it out.

[ZedgetRedd]

What do you think of Cameron Jordan?

[Wade-A-Holic]

Kudos on giving Jimmy Smith the credit he deserves. As a Packer fan I cringe at the thought of a Phil Taylor/Ryan Williams haul though...

Y'all need to watch some Baylor games. Taylor = Pat Williams, potentially. At worst he's a quicker Gilbert Brown with stamina. Lets Raji move to end in the base and slide inside for nickel/dime stuff, keeps him fresher and upgrades the run defense. If Taylor went to Wisconsin or USC you'd think he was an exceptional value in the late 20s.

Fair enough. I haven't watched Baylor much and when I have, haven't focused on Taylor, but couldn't the Packers just as easily been looking hard at Liuget? I mean, it just seems that if the Packers wanted Raji at end, they'd move Pickett back to nose where he was excellent last season.

[Icness]

Kudos on giving Jimmy Smith the credit he deserves. As a Packer fan I cringe at the thought of a Phil Taylor/Ryan Williams haul though...

Y'all need to watch some Baylor games. Taylor = Pat Williams, potentially. At worst he's a quicker Gilbert Brown with stamina. Lets Raji move to end in the base and slide inside for nickel/dime stuff, keeps him fresher and upgrades the run defense. If Taylor went to Wisconsin or USC you'd think he was an exceptional value in the late 20s.

Fair enough. I haven't watched Baylor much and when I have, haven't focused on Taylor, but couldn't the Packers just as easily been looking hard at Liuget? I mean, it just seems that if the Packers wanted Raji at end, they'd move Pickett back to nose where he was excellent last season.

Could be, that's the fun part of this time of year. They could just as easily be looking at OL too. I know they've been looking hard at the lines though. IMO they're another great candidate to move backwards for a team looking for a specific player in the late 1st the way the Lions did with Best and the Broncos did with Tebow last year. But nobody has any idea who those might be yet and if they tell you do they're shameless liars. I can guarantee you Mike McCarthy hasn't spent more than 5 minutes on the 2011 draft yet and he has HUGE say in their draft board.

[Icness]

What do you think of Cameron Jordan?

I like that his dad was a great NFL player, it shows in how he approaches the game. He's so quick off the snap, just like Freeney, but Freeney is faster around the edge...and 35 pounds lighter. I see him being somewhere between Justin Smith and the Chris Long we saw this year, very good all-around end that can get you 8-12 sacks a year but make more tackles than most ends. The more I see the more I like, and I remember last year looking at Alualu and liking Jordan more. I would prefer him in a 4-man front because good tackles can get on his outside shoulder and crash him in, which is usually the biggest issue for ends making the switch from college 4-3 to NFL 3-4. He's a definite top 15 pick and I'll have him in the top 8-10 of my next 103.

[SpeedyG]

What do you think of Cameron Jordan?

I like that his dad was a great NFL player, it shows in how he approaches the game. He's so quick off the snap, just like Freeney, but Freeney is faster around the edge...and 35 pounds lighter. I see him being somewhere between Justin Smith and the Chris Long we saw this year, very good all-around end that can get you 8-12 sacks a year but make more tackles than most ends. The more I see the more I like, and I remember last year looking at Alualu and liking Jordan more. I would prefer him in a 4-man front because good tackles can get on his outside shoulder and crash him in, which is usually the biggest issue for ends making the switch from college 4-3 to NFL 3-4. He's a definite top 15 pick and I'll have him in the top 8-10 of my next 103.

Do you see him more as an LDE then?

[WAYSA]

I think it's far more likely that the Pats deal the #33 pick for a veteran RB than they actually use the pick on an RB, or anything for that matter. Think Carolina wouldn't give up Deangelo Williams to get that pick back

Next mock is under initial construction. 3 rounds, full commentary on 1st round. The top 10 is almost completely different from this one. Should be up Friday or Saturday if I get enough time tomorrow to really flesh it out.

Any chance your mock is up today?